The story on Bill Green(R) who represented Manhattan from 1978 to 1993

[Mr.Phips]

This is probably one of the most fascinating Congressional careers electorally that I can think of. 

I remember looking at the 1990 Almanac of American Politics before I knew that much about Congressional districts and saw that a Representitive who was elected to a district that went for Dukakis by a 66%-33% margin had a "R" after his name.  I thought it had to have been a typo.

Then I did some more research.

He got to Congress in one of those 1977-early 1978 special House elections that Republicans for some reason did really, really well in(they picked up four House seats in special elections) even though they didnt forshadow a huge GOP wave in 1978(it was a pretty "normal" midterm).

He beat controversial Democrat Bella Azbug, who had represented another NYC seat and ran for the Senate in 1976 and lost the primary by a narrow margin in a huge upset.  This was a district that had voted 63%-37% for Carter in 1976 and 58%-42% for McGovern in 1972.  Additionally, it probably also voted heavily for Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and 1956 in his landslide losses.   Later that same year, Democrat Carter Burden was so confident that he would win that he seemed shocked on election night on NYC local news stations that he blamed the New York Times for enderosing Green and throwing the election to him. 

Amazingly, Green was able to hold onto his seat throughout the 1980's, always getting around 60% of the vote.  By the 1992 redistricting, he seemed so invincible to the point that nearby Democrats were worried about having to face him when New York City had to lose a Congressional district. 

Pretty much every prognosticator rated his seat as "Safe Republican" in 1992 and Green's opponent, City Councilwoman Carolyn Maloney had raised little money and was little known in most of the district.  However, Maloney campaigned hard, smartly going into the middle and low income, but somewhat socially conservative areas newly added to the district in Queens and attacking Green's conservative economic record(the only area were he had conservative ratings). 

Her strategy ended up paying off.  She carried Queens by 62%-35%, which cast about a thrid of the votes in the new district, which more than offset Green's 50%-44% in the parts that Green had previously represented in Manhattan.  This gave Maloney a 50%-48% win. 

Republicans actually had strong hopes of winning this seat back in 1994 with liberal Republican Councilman Charles Millard whose politics were much like Green's and who raised nearly as much money as Maloney.  However, even in that huge Republican wave, Maloney won 64%-35%.  She still ran behind Mario Cuomo's 78% in the district.  I always thought it was too bad that Cuomo and David Dinkins didnt switch offices in 1993(Cuomo would become mayor of NYC and Dinkins would have become governor) so at least Democrats would have been able to save one of those offices.  Also, it would have been funny to see how bad a Democrat would do in New York statewide if they were only running even in NYC. 

[freepcrusher]

Additionally, it probably also voted heavily for Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and 1956 in his landslide losses.   

Well there were two Manhattan CDs that Eisenhower won in 1956.

[minionofmidas]

The last hurrah of Upper East Side Republicanism. And yes, I would think the district as configured in the 80s almost certainly voted for Eisenhower, possibly even for Nixon in 1960 (but more probably not).

[Mr.Phips]

The last hurrah of Upper East Side Republicanism. And yes, I would think the district as configured in the 80s almost certainly voted for Eisenhower, possibly even for Nixon in 1960 (but more probably not).

No way that it went for Nixon in 1960.  From what I can estimate, it looks like Kennedy got between 55% and 58% there. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Bill Green was perhaps the earliest advocate for gay rights the Republican Party ever had.

[Asian Nazi]

Keep in mind that incumbency was an even larger advantage for House members back then.

[Bacon King]

Excellent analysis, Mr. Phips!

[Nichlemn]

I wonder if the Upper East Side would be solidly right-leaning in European countries, considering that wealthy urban areas often are there.

[adma]

You mean a "Kensington and Chelsea" kind of constituency?

[minionofmidas]

Yes it would be.
However, it's far too small to be its own congressional district nowadays.