Sabato releases first Senate rankings

[RogueBeaver]

AK: Tossup
AR: Lean D
CO: Likely D
GA: Likely R
IA: Tossup
LA: Tossup
NC: Tossup
SD: Tossup
WV: Lean R

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2014-senate-ratings-red-alert/

[Brittain33]

I'm developing an unreasonable dislike for the word tossup.

[Lurker]

This may be a bit OT, but I've never understood why the predictions of people like Sabato seem to be given so much credibility (particularly when the elections are so far away)

Sabato's senate rankings are never (?) close to being right when the elections are so far off. I had a look at his "crystal ball" predictions from june 2011, and he got pretty much everything wrong (centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2011062301/). At the same point in time in 2009 he was totally off as well.

It seems like Sabato (like most pundits in my own country) have a worse prediction rate than many horoscopes...

[RogueBeaver]

Don't see what you're getting at. They (Sabato/Cook/Rothenberg) update the ratings continuously as things change, and he's just assessing the situation as it is right now.

As for the ratings: I might rate NC Leans D, apart from that entirely agreed.

[Lurker]

Don't see what you're getting at. They (Sabato/Cook/Rothenberg) update the ratings continuously as things change, and he's just assessing the situation as it is right now.

As for the ratings: I might rate NC Leans D, apart from that entirely agreed.

I realize that the ratings are updated continuously. My point was, to ask wheter the ratings of Sabato/Cook/Rothenburg/etc. really have much meaning when the election date is so far off, given that they've often been wrong in the past. (And often Sabato is not just making an assesement about the situation right now - he looks at the numbers/situation from now and interpretes what those factors means for elections in the future (for instance he claimed in 2011 that unless there was an Obama landslide, the GOP would probably take the senate))

Why do you think NC is lean D, btw?  Is there a lack of credible GOP opposition? Hagan's approval ratings aren't that good, right?

[Asian Nazi]

Don't see what you're getting at. They (Sabato/Cook/Rothenberg) update the ratings continuously as things change, and he's just assessing the situation as it is right now.

As for the ratings: I might rate NC Leans D, apart from that entirely agreed.

I realize that the ratings are updated continuously. My point was, to ask wheter the ratings of Sabato/Cook/Rothenburg/etc. really have much meaning when the election date is so far off, given that they've often been wrong in the past. (And often Sabato is not just making an assesement about the situation right now - he looks at the numbers/situation from now and interpretes what those factors means for elections in the future (for instance he claimed in 2011 that unless there was an Obama landslide, the GOP would probably take the senate))

Why do you think NC is lean D, btw?  Is there a lack of credible GOP opposition? Hagan's approval ratings aren't that good, right?

Nobody could have predicted the massive implosion that was the Republican performance in last November's senate election.  Even noted wizard Nate Silver couldn't predict that the Dems would win in Montana and ND the night before it happened.

[sg0508]

Mike Rounds will be the favorite in SD.  That's a likely GOP pickup.  I think NC is lean Democratic though, same as AK.

[RogueBeaver]

Scott: Agreed on SD.

NC: Weak Pub bench.

[Brittain33]

Has Rounds declared?

[RogueBeaver]

Has Rounds declared?

He's formed an exploratory committee and said he's running, but nothing formally formalized IIRC.

[bballrox4717]

Mike Rounds will be the favorite in SD.  That's a likely GOP pickup.  I think NC is lean Democratic though, same as AK.

Man, I wish I shared your confidence in Begich holding the AK seat.

[Obamanation]

Mike Rounds will be the favorite in SD.  That's a likely GOP pickup.  I think NC is lean Democratic though, same as AK.

I disagree. I think if Tim Johnson runs, he's in a very strong position. I agree on NC and AK, though.