Vatican City 2013 papal election

[Paleobrazilian]

12 electors missed the general congregation that happened this morning. It's unlikely that they'll set a date before everyone voting arrives.

John L. Allen Jr. has been running a great series on the Papabili, which you can find here:

http://ncronline.org/blogs/ncr-today/read-all-john-allens-papabile-day-stories

[Paleobrazilian]

The Sistine Chapel has already been closed and will be scanned over the next few days. The last five electors will probably arrive tonight. This way, the conclave date could be set by Thursday.

There'll be no general congregations this afternoon, nor tomorrow afternoon. This will allow the cardinals to hold discussions a bit farther from the public eye (the general congregations are secretive, but there's always media frenzy around).

[Franknburger]

John L. Allen Jr. has been running a great series on the Papabili, which you can find here:

Very interesting. It seems the German delegation is not the only one to look for a strong 'package' (Pope plus Secretary), so much of the congregation discussion may be around putting together the best team in terms of mix of skills, geographical representation, and ideological balance.

[Tender Branson]

Nate Silver has a new chart:

[Paleobrazilian]

John L. Allen Jr. has been running a great series on the Papabili, which you can find here:

Very interesting. It seems the German delegation is not the only one to look for a strong 'package' (Pope plus Secretary), so much of the congregation discussion may be around putting together the best team in terms of mix of skills, geographical representation, and ideological balance.

According to a Vaticanologist, the cardinals want someone with the theological background of Benedict XVI, the charisma of John Paul II, the political skills of Paul VI and the courage of John XXIII. Tough shoes to fill.

[Paleobrazilian]

The last conclave voter will finally arrive today. The date of the conclave may be fixed when he takes part of the general congregations, what should happen tomorrow. I believe the conclave will begin around March 14th.

It seems that there is some tension ongoing during the general congregations.

[Platypus]

Sandri, Scherer, Bagnasco, Erdo, Turkson, Bertone, Arinze, Ouellet, Scola, Ravasi, Schornborn, the Congolese guy, Marin, Sarah, Bergoglio. That's my ranking at this point, with the top three the true contenders.

Gut feeling, but Sandri feels 'right'.

[Paleobrazilian]

The last voter has finally arrived, and hopefully the date will be set tomorrow.

According to some, those cardinals deliberately delayed their arrival, to postpone the conclave as much as they could. There was a feeling among those "backbencher cardinals" that hosting the conclave quickly would favour someone handpicked by the Curia. They feel the longer general congregations could help a darkhouse candidate more alligned to them.

[Paleobrazilian]

The date will be set today!

[Franzl]

Tuesday

[Paleobrazilian]

According to the National Catholic Reporter, there's no clear consensus as Tuesday approach. We'll probably see black smoke from Tuesday to Thursday, I guess. By Thursday afternoon we might see white smoke.

General congregations will go on until Monday. The Pro Eligendo Pontifice Mass will be celebrated Tuesday morning, and the conclave begins on the afternoon, when the first ballot will probably be held.

[Dereich]

Apparently the Curia cardinals wanted the conclave to begin on Monday; the Tuesday start is a compromise with the out-of-towners.

[Keystone Phil]

Let's get this, Dolan.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Let's get this, Dolan.

Dolan has zero chance.  While he is certainly no Mahoney and indeed has done much to clean up the sex abuse problem the Roman church faces in the US, that scandal along with the traditional reluctance to name a cardinal from the US so as to avoid becoming embroiled in the foreign policy controversies of our republic means that no US cardinal has a shot at being the next pope, no matter his record.

[Benj]

Let's get this, Dolan.

Dolan has zero chance.  While he is certainly no Mahoney and indeed has done much to clean up the sex abuse problem the Roman church faces in the US, that scandal along with the traditional reluctance to name a cardinal from the US so as to avoid becoming embroiled in the foreign policy controversies of our republic means that no US cardinal has a shot at being the next pope, no matter his record.

And especially not one as frequently openly political as Dolan. A less politically outspoken US cardinal might have some remote chance. Sean Patrick O'Malley, though he has also spoken out on politics from time to time, has made fewer such pronouncements and is thus at least marginally likely to be chosen, more than can be said for Dolan.

[patrick1]

Let's get this, Dolan.

Dolan has zero chance.  While he is certainly no Mahoney and indeed has done much to clean up the sex abuse problem the Roman church faces in the US, that scandal along with the traditional reluctance to name a cardinal from the US so as to avoid becoming embroiled in the foreign policy controversies of our republic means that no US cardinal has a shot at being the next pope, no matter his record.

Do not to forget that Dolan is Archbishop of New York, a great example of the catholic nature of the flock. Dolan celebrates this at every opportunity.. A small vignette being midnight mass intentions read in something like 10 languages.  The fact that Dolan and O'Malley are not being dismissed out of hand certainly makes it greater than zero....

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Still hoping for Ouellet, just out of a sense of patriotism. He could be a reasonable compromise between the Europeans and the out-of-towners.

[Paleobrazilian]

For the junkies following this as much as me, the black smoke should come out on Tuesday around 5:30-6 PM GMT. From Wednesday on, smoke will come out every day around 11 AM and 6 PM GMT, and if comes at this time it may be black or white, so you'll have to pay close attention. If the smoke comes out at around 9:30-10 AM GMT, or around 4:30-5 PM GMT, then there's a huge chance it's white smoke, because there was only enough time for one ballot, so rush to the front of your TV.

[Franzl]

Let's get this, Dolan.

I guess he might be preferable to Santorum, but not by a whole lot...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

For the junkies following this as much as me, the black smoke should come out on Tuesday around 5:30-6 PM GMT. From Wednesday on, smoke will come out every day around 11 AM and 6 PM GMT, and if comes at this time it may be black or white, so you'll have to pay close attention. If the smoke comes out at around 9:30-10 AM GMT, or around 4:30-5 PM GMT, then there's a huge chance it's white smoke, because there was only enough time for one ballot, so rush to the front of your TV.

A new pope on Wednessday or Thursday, then? I shall set my DVR .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ouellet looks like a reactionary asshole, even by Catholic Church standards.

The ideal would be a non-European reformist, but I'm not sure there is any one among the serious candidates.

[RogueBeaver]

Though not Catholic, I'm hoping for Ouellet or Scola.

[Franknburger]

The ideal would be a non-European reformist, but I'm not sure there is any one among the serious candidates.

Yes, I also have my dreams . But I think it is more realistic to either expect a non-European conservative (who does not scare off the Curia), or a European reformist (who gets support from outside Europe, but is deemed 'controllable' by the conservatives in the Curia).

There is two things I am quite sure we are not going to see: a) A European conservative à la Scola, and b) an outspoken non-European à la Oullet. If the Curia shall agree on giving up control (and that is one of the main issues within the European / non-European debate), they will need to be assured that the new Pope knows how to control his tongue. The last thing anybody in the Catholic leadership wants is more of the scandals and controversies of the recent years.

[Niemeyerite]

I think it'll be Cañizares.

[Paleobrazilian]

I think it'll be Cañizares.

I don't think Little Ratzinger will win this. The mood is for a Pope with political skills, not another theologian. Plus, if they want a Ratzinger-style theologian, Scola, Schönbor, even Ravasi would all be stronger picks.