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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Orange County results by city
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Author Topic: Orange County results by city  (Read 4341 times)
Sbane
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« on: February 08, 2013, 05:48:03 pm »

First of all here is 2008:


Then we have 2012:


And finally, here is the swing map from 2008-2012:


Scale: Light Blue= < 5% Democratic swing
         Blue= 5-10% Democratic swing
         Dark Blue= >10% Democratic swing
         Light Red= <5% Republican swing
         Red=5-10% Republican swing
         Dark Red= >10% Republican swing

Just in case you were wondering, the Vietnamese areas are in dark blue. Garden Grove and Westminster are both in dark blue with Westminster actually swinging 16.4% Dem. Garden Grove swung 14.31% Dem. On the flip side, uber rich Newport Beach swung 16.75% Rep and Laguna Beach swung 15.18% Rep, although it still voted for Obama by a 12 point margin.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2013, 06:43:10 am »

It's funny how the Tories and the Fugees even out. Smiley
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politicallefty
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« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2013, 07:08:06 am »

I don't think Orange County is going to hold for too much longer for Republicans. It's a matter of when it actually falls.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2013, 09:07:52 am »

I don't think Orange County is going to hold for too much longer for Republicans. It's a matter of when it actually falls.

I actually think its quite likely that Jerry Brown carries it in 2014. 
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Sbane
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2013, 10:07:20 am »
« Edited: February 09, 2013, 10:25:20 am by Sbane »

It's funny how the Tories and the Fugees even out. Smiley

Yes, indeed. Fullerton, another big city, just barely swung Republican by half a point. Same with Fountain Valley, which is still majority Anglo or around there but has a large Vietnamese population. South OC did most of the heavy lifting to get Romney his swing in the county.
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2013, 11:20:26 am »

I wonder if the percentage of Vietnamese in Westminster and Garden Grove is declining, as they move on up in SES, and disperse across the Fruited Plain.
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Sbane
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« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2013, 11:40:27 am »

I wonder if the percentage of Vietnamese in Westminster and Garden Grove is declining, as they move on up in SES, and disperse across the Fruited Plain.

Perhaps, but most of the Asians in Garden Grove and Westminster are Vietnamese, and both those cities have a lot of Asians. Fountain Valley is one such place many are moving to.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2013, 12:11:14 pm »

I don't think Orange County is going to hold for too much longer for Republicans. It's a matter of when it actually falls.

I doubt it. Obama lost ground with whites (and with Hispanics, believe it or not) in OC, and the swing was only small because of the massive swing with Vietnamese-Americans that probably had to do with a pro-incumbent culture plus the "self-deportation" crap.
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memphis
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« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2013, 12:58:45 pm »

I don't think Orange County is going to hold for too much longer for Republicans. It's a matter of when it actually falls.

I doubt it. Obama lost ground with whites (and with Hispanics, believe it or not) in OC, and the swing was only small because of the massive swing with Vietnamese-Americans that probably had to do with a pro-incumbent culture plus the "self-deportation" crap.
Whites matter less every election. And how much more ground can he lose with them out there? They've been heavily GOP forever. And everything is relative to the national election. A Democrat would certainly win in a national landslide.
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Sbane
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« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2013, 03:01:59 pm »

I don't think Orange County is going to hold for too much longer for Republicans. It's a matter of when it actually falls.

I doubt it. Obama lost ground with whites (and with Hispanics, believe it or not) in OC, and the swing was only small because of the massive swing with Vietnamese-Americans that probably had to do with a pro-incumbent culture plus the "self-deportation" crap.

Why do you think Obama lost ground with Hispanics? The way I am looking at it, the Hispanic vote either swung slightly to Obama or stayed about the same. Santa Ana is 80% Hispanic and it swung Dem by about 8 points. Anaheim, excluding the area near Yorba Linda and Villa Park, probably swung by about the same amount. Both those cities do have a Vietnamese presence, but that in itself doesn't explain all the swing imo.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2013, 05:14:35 pm »

The Hispanic vote in California overall swung narrowly Republican.
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Obamanation
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« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2013, 05:19:52 pm »

The Hispanic vote in California overall swung narrowly Republican.

Evidence? I'm not doubting you, but since the overall California swing was so small I would doubt that since Obama did much worse with whites than in '08 - if the exit polls are to be believed.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2013, 05:35:08 pm »

The exit polls showed an R swing with Hispanics. The overall swing was entirely due to a massive shift with the Asian vote (as well as the fact that it's growing more quickly than any other group).
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Sbane
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« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2013, 05:45:59 pm »

Subsample margin of error.....

Also there is a lot of weirdness in the 2012 California exit poll. 28% of voters were 18-29 year olds? Whites drop from 63% to 55% in just 4 years?
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2013, 07:06:44 pm »

I'm not sure I buy into Orange County going Democrat.

While Obama did fairly well, it still swung Republican overall from 2008.

 I  understand that Obama has vastly overperformed amongst other Democrats there with the turnout operation that he had, but if we so much as go back to the midterms, Orange County swung back to the norm in the 2010 midterms.

Whitman 56.81%
Brown 37.35%

Fiorina 57.63%
Boxer 37.08%

Obviously, Republicans not in the high 60s-low 70s margins that they were in the 80s, but I would still say that the "Obama turnout/excitement based on demographics" factor brought out low-propensity voters  that don't normally vote.

Just as a side note, Riverside County and San Diego County swung Republican from 2008, but in the midterms just as double-digit victories for Whitman and Fiorina...

It will be interesting to see what occurs if Jerry Brown runs again and has at least a second-tier opponent -- how these counties do, and of course, the next Presidential
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Sbane
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« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2013, 07:48:41 pm »
« Edited: February 09, 2013, 07:51:17 pm by Sbane »

Haha, Republicans keep hoping minorities voted because of Obama's "demographics". A landslide is coming folks.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #16 on: February 10, 2013, 01:50:02 pm »

Do you have a link to the actual data by city?
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Sbane
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« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2013, 03:16:13 pm »

Do you have a link to the actual data by city?

http://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/gen2012/sov-for-web.pdf
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2013, 07:00:12 am »

I wonder if the percentage of Vietnamese in Westminster and Garden Grove is declining, as they move on up in SES, and disperse across the Fruited Plain.

2000
Garden Grove 165k inhabitants, 51k Asians, 36k Vietnamese
Westminster 88k inhabitants, 34k Asians, 27k Vietnamese
Fountain Valley 55k inhabitants, 14k Asians, 7k Vietnamese
Fullerton 126k inhabitants, 20k Asians, 9k Koreans (decidedly not an area of Vietnamese settlement)

2010
Garden Grove 171k inhabitants, 67k Asians, 49k Vietnamese
Westminster 90k inhabitants, 45k Asians, 37k Vietnamese
Fountain Valley 55k inhabitants, 20k Asians, 12k Vietnamese
Fullerton 135k inhabitants, 34k Asians, 16k Koreans (still not many Vietnamese)



Birtherism was probably the even bigger turnoff than "self-deportation" as it is spells out "legal, educated immigrants not welcome to vote Republican" more clearly than anybody could have thought possible in a modern major party. Not that that was the intended message, of course. Kluckers' granchirren were just distracted by the hue of Obama's skin. But that was never going to make it okay to people who (whatever their own views on the Blacks) don't share the specifically American racist pedigree.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2013, 09:44:46 am »

Haha, Republicans keep hoping minorities voted because of Obama's "demographics". A landslide is coming folks.

There is some truth to it, at least with African-Americans. Though I doubt there were many otherwise conservative blacks who voted Obama solely due to race (as closet racists like to crow about), the idea of a black president clearly got many non-voters to turn out; black turnout in 2008 and 2012 was much higher than in prior years, even if Obama didn't do exceptionally better percentage-wise than Gore and Kerry did. In 2016, the black vote will obviously remain ironclad Democratic, but the depressed turnout will probably keep NC and GA red and possibly swing back Virginia and even Ohio.
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Sbane
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« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2013, 11:40:33 am »

I wonder if the percentage of Vietnamese in Westminster and Garden Grove is declining, as they move on up in SES, and disperse across the Fruited Plain.

2000
Garden Grove 165k inhabitants, 51k Asians, 36k Vietnamese
Westminster 88k inhabitants, 34k Asians, 27k Vietnamese
Fountain Valley 55k inhabitants, 14k Asians, 7k Vietnamese
Fullerton 126k inhabitants, 20k Asians, 9k Koreans (decidedly not an area of Vietnamese settlement)

2010
Garden Grove 171k inhabitants, 67k Asians, 49k Vietnamese
Westminster 90k inhabitants, 45k Asians, 37k Vietnamese
Fountain Valley 55k inhabitants, 20k Asians, 12k Vietnamese
Fullerton 135k inhabitants, 34k Asians, 16k Koreans (still not many Vietnamese)



Birtherism was probably the even bigger turnoff than "self-deportation" as it is spells out "legal, educated immigrants not welcome to vote Republican" more clearly than anybody could have thought possible in a modern major party. Not that that was the intended message, of course. Kluckers' granchirren were just distracted by the hue of Obama's skin. But that was never going to make it okay to people who (whatever their own views on the Blacks) don't share the specifically American racist pedigree.

Yup, like I mentioned in another thread, the swing amongst Asians was certainly not a phenomenon specific to Vietnamese. It was just more apparent since they voted so Republican in the past and so there was a lot of room for them to swing. Koreans too to a lesser extent, thus we have Fullerton and Buena Park. Irvine, which has a lot of Chinese and students, actually swung back about 6 points to Romney. I think that is more due to the fact that the city has a lot of "torie's" who usually vote Republican but voted for Obama in 2008.
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Sbane
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« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2013, 11:42:48 am »

Haha, Republicans keep hoping minorities voted because of Obama's "demographics". A landslide is coming folks.

There is some truth to it, at least with African-Americans. Though I doubt there were many otherwise conservative blacks who voted Obama solely due to race (as closet racists like to crow about), the idea of a black president clearly got many non-voters to turn out; black turnout in 2008 and 2012 was much higher than in prior years, even if Obama didn't do exceptionally better percentage-wise than Gore and Kerry did. In 2016, the black vote will obviously remain ironclad Democratic, but the depressed turnout will probably keep NC and GA red and possibly swing back Virginia and even Ohio.

Yes, there will be some swing back in the Black vote, mostly due to turnout, which will also reduce the overall percentage they vote for Democrats as conservative Blacks will be less diluted. Not only could it affect VA and OH, but it could also affect your state. At least VA has the growing Washington suburbs and a growing Asian and Hispanic population there to rely on.
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memphis
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« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2013, 01:19:58 pm »

It depends who the Dem candidate is. Hillary could turnout the blacks pretty easily. Anybody from the West is going to have trouble though.
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badger
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« Reply #23 on: February 12, 2013, 05:46:29 pm »

Haha, Republicans keep hoping minorities voted because of Obama's "demographics". A landslide is coming folks.

There is some truth to it, at least with African-Americans. Though I doubt there were many otherwise conservative blacks who voted Obama solely due to race (as closet racists like to crow about), the idea of a black president clearly got many non-voters to turn out; black turnout in 2008 and 2012 was much higher than in prior years, even if Obama didn't do exceptionally better percentage-wise than Gore and Kerry did. In 2016, the black vote will obviously remain ironclad Democratic, but the depressed turnout will probably keep NC and GA red and possibly swing back Virginia and even Ohio.

How much, if at all, did black turnout increase as an overall share of the electorate, compared to their overall demographic share of the general population? Black turnout increased in 08 of course, but increased across the board for almost all demographic groups. I seem to recall reading that the black share of the 08 electorate increased from 04 only marginally more than the general population's increased % of blacks from the same time period. I also vaguely recall being corrected on that point on the Forum, and now can't remember which is correct. Tongue
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mileslunn
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« Reply #24 on: February 12, 2013, 06:57:44 pm »

Do you have the percentage totals for each city is it would take hours to manually calculate using this?
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