2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[Mehmentum]

Its telling that the Hillary vs. Best Republican map is roughly equivalent to Obama's 2012 win.  Not only that, but there is no 'best' Republican who does this well in every state.  All the candidates have strengths and weaknesses and fall short of this ideal scenario.

[Mehmentum]

What's interesting is that though Bush seems to be able to compete with Hillary, he seems to negate all of Hillary's weaknesses.

If you mean by compete, just barely breaking 200 EVs, then yes.

[Mehmentum]

That's mostly because you have teabaggers who say they're undecided in Clinton v. mainstream Republican matchups, I would guess. They'll come home by election day.

Did we see a similar effect with Romney in 2012?

[Mehmentum]

I suspect that Chris Christie will be the one being dropped.

[Mehmentum]

Comparing recent 2016 polls (Clinton v. Bush) to 2012 results:

Minnesota: D -6 from 2012
Illinois: -8 (Obama had home state effect)
Virginia: +4
North Carolina: +4
Kentucky: +15
Michigan: -1
Ohio: -1
Pennsylvania: +6

Comparing 2016 polls (Clinton v. Best Republican) to 2012 Results:

Minnesota: D -7 (v. Paul)
Illinois: -8 (v. Bush)
Virginia: Even (v. Rubio & Carson)
North Carolina: -2 (v. Huckabee)
Michigan: -7 (v. Paul)
Arkansas: +10 (v. Huckabee)
Kentucky: +13 (v. Paul & Huckabee)
Ohio: -10 (v. Kasich, -6 v. Paul)
Pennsylvania: -6 (v. Rubio)

So Clinton is much stronger in the Upper South, holding steady in the coastal south, and doing worse in the Midwest