2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, PPP. PPP is polling North Carolina and Louisiana this weekend, and could get some interesting results. 

Clinton vs. Christie

Clinton vs. Rubio

[pbrower2a]

Unless someone utterly money-bombs the Republican primaries on his behalf, I can't see Christie winning the Republican nomination. Rubio may be over-hyped.

[pbrower2a]

You can add Louisiana to the list of states where Hillary Clinton might be competitive with a 2016 Presidential bid, at least at this stage. She has a 46/44 favorability rating in the state and has 3 points lead over Jindal (48/45) and Rubio (46/43) in hypothetical match ups. She ties Ryan at 46.

Clinton vs. Christie

Clinton vs. Rubio

[pbrower2a]

Re: Rubio

His performance of the rebuttal to the President's State of the Union speech indicates that he is not ready for prime time. Republicans surely liked it for policy issues, but everything else left much to be desired.

[pbrower2a]

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...Correction noted, and the invalid material is removed.

PPP polled Georgia and Montana this weekend. We may find such interesting.  

[pbrower2a]

Georgia (PPP)

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Clinton vs. Christie

Clinton vs. Rubio

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton. 

[pbrower2a]

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?

Favorable........................................................ 44%
Unfavorable .................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_022113.pdf

Montana hasn't voted for the Democratic nominee for President since 1992, when the state split 37-35-26 Clinton-Bush-Perot. Perot likely took more votes from the elder Bush that year. It went 44-41-16 Dole-Clinton-Perot in 1996. Dubya won it 55-33 in 2000 and 59-39 in 2004. The highest percentage for any Democratic nominee for President since the LBJ blowout was 47% for Barack Obama. Kennedy lost it with a slightly-larger percentage than Obama in 1960. Of course, Presidential politics in America before 1992 now might as well be ancient history. Don't let the close election in 2008 fool you: it will go D for President only in a blowout.

Montana is a swing state with its Favorite Son its recent Governor Brian Schweitzer, but three electoral votes haven't decided a Presidential election in a very long time.   If he is a VP nominee he might not swing the state because it isn't that close; his value for Biden or Clinton would likely be in places where populist tendencies have hibernated under President Obama.

Clinton vs. Christie

Clinton vs. Rubio

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/03/michigan-miscellany.html#more

....The Republicans could probably win Michigan if they nominated Gerald Ford, the last Republican to win the state in a close election...

Clinton vs. Rubio

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

[pbrower2a]

I figure Ryan would get about the same results as Rubio.  I have seen nothing on Christie lately.

[pbrower2a]

One way to look at it is to say that Barack Obama, although an above-average vote-getter, gets polarizing results. That could be race (for which he is obviously excused) or his unusual ability to win northern suburban votes but unusual incapacity for winning rural votes. Hillary Clinton isn't as polarizing a figure, or she can win the sorts of voters that he husband won but Obama could not reach.

If she is able to win the sorts of voters who went for Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 and the sorts of voters that her husband won in 1992 and 1996 but Gore, Kerry, and Obama lost beginning in 2000, then this is what I can predict for 2016:

Clinton vs. Rubio

At this point I have no idea of how Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, or two of the three Congressional districts of Nebraska would go. It could also be that Marco Rubio fails badly to live up to the early hype and will get wiped out early.


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.   

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Pennsylvania.

I have seen little on Clinton vs. Christie lately. Hillary clobbers everyone else in Pennsylvania:

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H. Clinton v. Christie

Clinton vs. Rubio

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

[pbrower2a]

Should this thread have a map for Hillary vs. Rand Paul? He's being featured in a lot more polls than Christie is.

It seems that most Republicans other than Chris Christie -- such as Paul Ryan -- do about the same as Marco Rubio.  So far we have little other contrast in likely results between most Republican prospects other than Chris Christie with Hillary Clinton. 

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac -- H Clinton 47. Christie 42.

I have seen little on Clinton vs. Christie lately. Hillary clobbers everyone else in Pennsylvania:



H. Clinton v. Christie

Clinton vs. Rubio

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac -- H Clinton 47. Christie 42.

pbrower, what is that Iowa poll in your map ?

I didn't find an Iowa poll. Where did you get it from ?

I checked. Dirty spectacles.



H. Clinton v. Christie

Clinton vs. Rubio

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1867

Nothing about Rubio, Ryan, or others who have almost no chance of winning New York.


H. Clinton v. Christie

Clinton vs. Rubio

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

[pbrower2a]

For a Democrat to win Texas one or two things happen:

1. Win the U.S. Popular Vote with at least 57 percent.

2. See Texas's demographics move sharply away from being advantageous with the Republicans and without needing so much rope to bring it in.


If Texas is going Democratic, so is Montana. So is Indiana. And so are North Dakota and South Dakota and the first two Congressional Districts in the state of Nebraska. Nebraska, statewide and with the 3rd Congressional District, and Kansas would be reduced to (at best) a 5-point hold for the losing Republican.

If Texas goes Democratic, it's going to be a 40-state [plus] landslide election.

Since 1912 -- dating back 100 years -- South Carolina has voted the same as Mississippi and Alabama in all but two elections: 1960 and 1968. If ever a split, Ala. and Miss. -- which have voted alike in all elections since their first vote in 1820 (exception is 1840) -- would stay Republicans (because, long term, they vote opposite Vermont) while S.C. would flip Democratic. This is like Ind. + N.D. + S.D. + Neb. + Kan. = same since 1920. Those five states voted the same in all of 1920 to 2004. In 2008, Barack Obama flipped Ind. and Neb. #02. It was a difference in tipping point.

In recent elections, S.C. has been about 15 points more Republican than the country. Tex. has been about 20 points. We can't hold them all to a tee … but if Texas is willing to flip Democratic, it would be wise to look out for S.C. But for this to be happening, it's a likelihood than Montana will have already flipped. It would be such a national tide that Montana would come in. It's just that Democrats should be going after Montana.

If all of this is happening … Arizona is there for the Democrats.

I just have no information for Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, or either of the two Congressional districts of eastern Nebraska, and there are no good analogues for either state or those two districts. Hillary was polled for Kansas, a good analogue for Plains states other than Texas. I saw PPP polls for Montana, Louisiana, and Texas. Show me polls for Arizona, Indiana, and Mississippi and I don't white them out for lack of data. I have Missouri as a likely win for Hillary because she is ahead in Kentucky.

Texas has no good analogue, and my best guess is to describe it as "Kansas grafted onto Florida". Texas east of the I-35 corridor and Greater El Paso is probably analogous to Florida in its voting; Texas west of the I-35 corridor except for the Rio Grande Valley is much like Kansas.  The quadrilateral formed by Dallas/Fort Worth at the north, Houston in the southeast, Laredo in the southwest and Brownsville in the south would be a  swing state in most Presidential and Senatorial elections if it were a state. Kansas? We all know about Kansas. A Democratic nominee for President would have to win Florida by about 8% to break even in Texas.

If Hillary Clinton would defeat Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush in Florida, she would do just the same in Texas where those two are not well known. 

If Hillary Clinton can win Texas, she would achieve what her husband came close to doing twice but never quite did. Graft the (Bill) Clinton-but-not-Obama voters onto the Obama voters, and a Democratic nominee for President (1) gets about 57% of the popular vote, (2) wins 40 or so states, one of which is Texas, and (3) shows that the political reality of the South has changed dramatically.

re: Indiana

Indiana usually says something; it is about 10% more R than the rest of America in almost every Presidential election. Barack Obama campaigned heavily in Indiana and sank vast resources into the state to win it in 2008 and did not do so in 2012. He lost it by 10% in 2012 -- which should be a huge disappointment. Right?

Year     margin   

2012       10R
2008         1D
2004       21R
2000       16R
1996         6R*
1992         6R*
1988       20R
1984       24R
1980       18R*
1976         8R
1972       33R
1968       12R*
1964       12D[/b]
1960       10R
1956       20R
1952       17R
1948         1R
1944         7R
1940         1R

*Independent or third-party nominee may have had an effect. Bold is for the Democratic nominee winning the state. Bold indicates that the Democratic nominee won the state. Dark shades indicate electoral blowouts.

Wrong. Barack Obama campaigned extensively in Indiana in 2008 and won it -- and was effective enough in winning a raft of states that neither Gore nor Kerry won. He stayed out of Indiana in 2012 and lost it because he needed a laser focus on a small number of states that could decide the election. If he was going to win Indiana he was going to win Ohio anyway, but Ohio was easier for him to win against an opponent who could overpower him with campaign funds.   

Indiana has gone for the Republican nominee for President in 18 of the last 20 chances. This goes back to two elections involving FDR. Democratic nominees have won the popular vote 9 times and the Presidency 8 times -- and Republican nominees have won the popular vote 11 times and the Presidency 12 times.

The Republicans seem unable to win the Presidency if the Democrat loses the state by less than 11%. If Indiana votes by more than 11% for the Republican, then the Republican wins at the least the Electoral College (which is everything).

If you see the Republican nominee winning Indiana early in 2016 on Election Day but by a comparatively-small margin (let us say 7%), then it will be a bad night for the GOP.

   
 

[pbrower2a]

NC is wrong. Hillary is ahead.

Correction made here:

H. Clinton v. Christie

Clinton vs. Rubio

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

[pbrower2a]

Colorado checks in:

Q5 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

48% Hillary Clinton
..................................................
44% Marco Rubio
...................................................
8% Not sure

Clinton vs. Rubio

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

[pbrower2a]

Clinton vs. Rubio

Clinton vs. Ryan

Clinton vs. Christie

CO, NH, NC added. 

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Quinnipiac. Clinton overpowers Rubio and Ryan -- nothing on Christie.

Wisconsin, Marquette University Law School.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/MLSP16Toplines.pdf

Clinton 49%
Ryan 44%

Clinton 47%
Christie 40%

Clinton 50%
Walker 42%

Clinton 51%
Rubio 35%

Clinton vs. Rubio

Clinton vs. Ryan

Clinton vs. Christie

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/06/michigan-miscellany.html

Clinton vs. Rubio

Clinton vs. Ryan

Clinton vs. Christie

[pbrower2a]

Clinton vs. Rubio

Clinton vs. Ryan

Clinton vs. Christie

I think that you should add Paul to this map, and here is what the map looks like right now with him and Hillary.

Good idea, as there are enough data points to satisfy me.

[pbrower2a]

Now in alphabetical order:

Clinton vs. Christie

Clinton vs. Paul

Clinton vs. Rubio

Clinton vs. Ryan

White indicates a tie.

[pbrower2a]

We have Hillary against three different potential nominees. I can see some patterns.

Against Christie -- would Hillary really win Texas? She does win one of three imaginable tipping-point states (Pennsylvania) No way does she win Pennsylvania and Texas and still lose. Otherwise we see few states --all of which Hillary wins.

Against Paul -- she makes Kentucky close. It is possible to lose one's home state and win the Presidential election (Al Gore came close). But Kentucky is one state that Republicans absolutely must win to have a chance. He is also losing North Carolina, a state that Democratic nominees have won twice in nearly fifty years. Ugh!

Against Rubio -- she seems to combine just about every state that Obama won in 2008... and that Carter won in 1976. That would stick Rubio with about 50 electoral votes -- and fewer if Arizona goes. That would be like LBJ in 1964 in electoral results. Rubio loses his own state -- Florida -- but that could be the least of his problems.

Against Ryan -- she picks off the entire Atlantic seaboard except perhaps South Carolina. Ryan  comes to a virtual tie in Louisiana, the most Catholic state in the South except for Florida...

[pbrower2a]

44-41 Christie/Clinton
46-45 Rubio/Clinton

48-32 Christie/Biden
48-35 Rubio/Biden

Favorables:

49-17 Christie
39-22 Rubio
53-44 Clinton
39-49 Biden



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1908

Clinton vs. Christie

Clinton vs. Paul

Clinton vs. Rubio

Clinton vs. Ryan

White indicates a tie.