2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[Mr. Morden]

Has PPP stopped including Christie in their general election matchups because he's not competitive in the primary?

[Mr. Morden]

Poll questions released Wednesday also covered the 2012 presidential election results, attitudes toward women in the workplace and hypothetical 2016 presidential election match-ups involving the possible candidacy of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The poll results showed Clinton with leads over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (61 percent to 32 percent), Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (61 percent to 30 percent) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (58 percent to 34 percent).

http://blaircenterclintonschoolpoll.uark.edu/6760.php

This is a national poll, not an Arkansas poll.  And we discussed it two weeks ago, when it was first released:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169067.0

[Mr. Morden]

I think the trend map is more interesting than the straight up who's ahead map.  We now have quite a few Clinton vs. Rubio state polls.  Just counting polls that PPP has conducted this year on Clinton vs. Rubio, we have:

national, Jan. 3-6: Clinton +14
Florida, Jan. 11-13: Clinton +4
Minnesota, Jan. 18-20: Clinton +13
Texas, Jan. 24-27: Clinton +1
national, Jan. 31-Feb. 3: Clinton +8
Alaska, Feb. 4-5: Clinton +1
Louisiana, Feb. 8-12: Clinton +3
Montana, Feb. 15-17: Rubio +8
Georgia, Feb. 15-18: Clinton +3
Kansas, Feb. 21-24: Rubio +5
Wisconsin, Feb. 21-24: Clinton +14
Michigan, Mar. 2-4: Clinton +14

We also have the recent Quinnipiac national poll:
national, Feb. 27-Mar. 4: Clinton +16

So some disagreement about how much Clinton leads by nationally.  PPP says 8 points, and Quinnipiac says 16.  If you assume that the true national margin is the Clinton by 8 seen in that Jan. 31-Feb. 3 poll, then relative to the 2012 election, the trend would be:

Florida: R+1 (Rubio's home state)
Minnesota: D+1
Texas: D+12
Alaska: D+11
Louisiana: D+16
Montana: D+1
Georgia: D+7
Kansas: D+13
Wisconsin: D+3
Michigan: +/-0

But that doesn't seem right.  Not every state can be trending Democratic.  Remember, "trend" all has to balance out.  If, instead, we assume that the Clinton by 16 nationally number from Quinnipiac is closer to the truth, then you just add 8 points to the GOP side in every state:

Florida: R+9 (Rubio's home state)
Minnesota: R+7
Texas: D+4
Alaska: D+3
Louisiana: D+8
Montana: R+7
Georgia: R+1
Kansas: D+5
Wisconsin: R+5
Michigan: R+8

That map would be (ignore shading):

Perhaps that's closer to the truth, though the answer's probably somewhere in between.  If you assume that the Clinton by 14 national margin that PPP got in early Jan. is the true national margin, then you flip Georgia on the trend map:

There's either a north/south divide here, or a Dem. state / GOP state divide, with the more Democratic states trending Republican and vice versa.

Or, to put it another way, the polls show that, as of today, Clinton would beat Rubio by much more than the margin by which Obama beat Romney.  But most of those extra votes she would get are in the more Republican states, perhaps especially in the South.  Obama may have come closer to maxing out the Democratic vote in the North than the South.

[Mr. Morden]

Where do the Iowa numbers here come from?  I don't see a general election poll for Iowa out there, but I might have missed it.

[Mr. Morden]

Where do the Iowa numbers here come from?  I don't see a general election poll for Iowa out there, but I might have missed it.

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder how's Jindal doing....

Likely terrible.  All we have is his home state:

Clinton: 48
Jindal: 45

Clinton: 46
Rubio: 43

Clinton: 46
Ryan: 46

With the favourite son effect, he only does as well as other candidates, meaning he'd likely be doing worse than either Rubio or Ryan against Hillary in other states.

I thought he meant how Jindal was doing in the national primary matchup.

In any case, anyone want to guess what PPP's national primary numbers will look like on the GOP side?  My guess is Rubio in first and Paul in second, meaning that they'll include Paul in the general election matchups for a while?

[Mr. Morden]

Their FL poll suggests that Paul might even be 1st in their national primary poll.

I say:

1) Paul
2) Rubio
3) Christie
4) Ryan
5) Bush

Maybe.  We don't have a lot to go on.  The PA poll was also taken after the filibuster, and Paul was at 17% in that.  For the record, PPP's last national poll (pre-filibuster) was:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169083.0

Rubio 22%
Ryan 15%
Bush 13%
Christie 13%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 10%
Jindal 4%
Perry 3%
Martinez 1%

For this one, I could see a close race between Paul and Rubio for first place.

[Mr. Morden]

Their FL poll suggests that Paul might even be 1st in their national primary poll.

I say:

1) Paul
2) Rubio
3) Christie
4) Ryan
5) Bush

Maybe.  We don't have a lot to go on.  The PA poll was also taken after the filibuster, and Paul was at 17% in that.  For the record, PPP's last national poll (pre-filibuster) was:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169083.0

Rubio 22%
Ryan 15%
Bush 13%
Christie 13%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 10%
Jindal 4%
Perry 3%
Martinez 1%

For this one, I could see a close race between Paul and Rubio for first place.

PPP tweets:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/318823239453376513

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That actually represents no meaningful change from their February poll, which had Christie at 42% favorable and Paul at 61% favorable among GOP primary voters.  Remains to be seen whether the lack of change in Paul's favorability portends a lack of gains in the primary matchup question.

[Mr. Morden]

Update on my trend map.  Here are the latest PPP polls:

Pennsylvania, Mar. 8-10: Clinton +15
Florida: Mar. 15-18: Clinton +16
national: Mar. 27-30: Clinton +7

That 7 point margin for Clinton just doesn't mesh with the statewide polls.  You can't have every state trending for the Dems.  That doesn't make any sense.  I'll stick with my Clinton by 14 points over Rubio estimate, which seems closer to reality, if we take into account the statewide polls.  In that case, the trends (for state polls conducted by PPP since Jan. 1) relative to 2012 would be:

Minnesota: R+5
Texas: D+6
Alaska: D+5
Louisiana: D+10
Montana: R+5
Georgia: D+1
Kansas: D+7
Wisconsin: R+3
Michigan: R+6
Pennsylvania: no trend
Florida: D+5

[Mr. Morden]

So we now have a new Clinton-Rubio PPP poll of KY:

Kentucky, Apr. 5-7: Clinton +6

Which more or less confirms their poll from 2012, and suggests a massive swing towards the Dems from 2012.  Much bigger than we've seen for any other state.  Again, assuming a national margin of Clinton by 14 points over Rubio, current trend map would be:

Minnesota: R+5
Texas: D+6
Alaska: D+5
Louisiana: D+10
Montana: R+5
Georgia: D+1
Kansas: D+7
Wisconsin: R+3
Michigan: R+6
Pennsylvania: no trend
Florida: D+5
Kentucky: D+19

[Mr. Morden]

Updating the trend map.  We now have:

Colorado, April 11-14: Clinton +3
North Carolina, April 11-14: Clinton +7
New Hampshire, April 19-21: Clinton +14

Again, assuming national Clinton margin of 14 points, trend map would now be:

Minnesota: R+5
Texas: D+6
Alaska: D+5
Louisiana: D+10
Montana: R+5
Georgia: D+1
Kansas: D+7
Wisconsin: R+3
Michigan: R+6
Pennsylvania: no trend
Florida: D+5
Kentucky: D+19
Colorado: R+13
North Carolina: R+1
New Hampshire: R+2

[Mr. Morden]

Updated Clinton-Rubio trend map from PPP polls...

Virginia, May 24-26: Clinton +4
Michigan, May 30-June 2: Clinton +17

Assuming national Clinton margin of 13 points, trend map would now be:

Minnesota: R+4
Texas: D+7
Alaska: D+6
Louisiana: D+11
Montana: R+4
Georgia: D+2
Kansas: D+8
Wisconsin: R+2
Pennsylvania: D+1
Florida: D+6
Kentucky: D+20
Colorado: R+12
North Carolina: no trend
New Hampshire: R+1
Virginia: R+9
Michigan: R+2

[Mr. Morden]

Taking all the state polls on Christie vs. Clinton so far (most recent poll from states with more than one poll), we have:

AK: Christie +8
CO: Christie +3
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MT: Christie +5
NH: Clinton +5
NJ: Clinton +11
NY: Clinton +27
OH: tie
TX: Christie +9
VA: Clinton +5
WI: Clinton +7
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
CO: R+8
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MT: D+9
NH: R+1
NJ: R+7
NY: R+1
OH: R+3
TX: D+7
VA: D+1
WI: no change
WY: D+13

So yeah, the Democratic states swing Republican, and the Republican states swing Democratic.  Thus creating a map with many more states that are close.  2012 actually had remarkably few states that were close, given that the election itself was fairly close.

[Mr. Morden]

Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +1
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
LA: Clinton +1
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MT: Christie +5
NH: Clinton +5
NJ: Clinton +11
NY: Clinton +27
OH: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +5
TX: Christie +9
VA: Clinton +9
WI: Clinton +7
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+6
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
LA: D+21
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MT: D+9
NH: R+1
NJ: R+7
NY: R+1
OH: D+6
PA: no change
TX: D+7
VA: D+5
WI: no change
WY: D+13

[Mr. Morden]

Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +1
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
LA: Clinton +1
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MT: Christie +5
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +5
NY: Clinton +27
OH: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +5
TX: Christie +9
VA: Clinton +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +3
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+6
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
LA: D+21
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MT: D+9
NH: R+2
NJ: R+13
NY: R+1
OH: D+6
PA: no change
TX: D+7
VA: R+2
WV: D+18
WI: R+4
WY: D+13

[Mr. Morden]

Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +1
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
LA: Clinton +1
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MT: Christie +5
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +5
NY: Clinton +27
OH: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +5
SC: Christie +5
TX: Christie +9
VA: Clinton +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +10
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+6
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
LA: D+21
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MT: D+9
NH: R+2
NJ: R+13
NY: R+1
OH: D+6
PA: no change
SC: D+5
TX: D+7
VA: R+2
WV: D+18
WI: D+3
WY: D+13

[Mr. Morden]

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Isn't this a 41/41 tie, not a 4 point Clinton lead?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1926

[Mr. Morden]

Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +8
FL: Clinton +4
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
LA: Clinton +1
ME: Clinton +8
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MS: Christie +9
MT: Christie +17
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +4
NC: Christie +3
NY: Clinton +16
OH: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +5
SC: Christie +5
TX: Christie +5
VA: Clinton +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +10
WY: Christie +28

Clinton leads by 4 in FL, NH, and NJ.  If all of these polls reflected the true results, one of those three would be the "tipping point state".

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+13
FL: D+3
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
LA: D+21
ME: R+7
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MS: D+3
MT: R+3
NH: R+2
NJ: R+14
NC: R+1
NY: R+10
OH: D+6
PA: no change
SC: D+5
TX: D+11
VA: R+2
WV: D+18
WI: D+3
WY: D+13

[Mr. Morden]

Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +8
FL: Clinton +4
GA: Christie +2
IA: Christie +5
LA: Clinton +1
ME: Clinton +8
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MS: Christie +9
MT: Christie +17
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +4
NC: Christie +3
NY: Clinton +18
OH: Clinton +1
PA: Christie +4
SC: Christie +5
TX: Christie +5
VA: Christie +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +10
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+13
FL: D+3
GA: D+6
IA: R+11
LA: D+21
ME: R+7
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MS: D+3
MT: R+3
NH: R+2
NJ: R+14
NC: R+1
NY: R+8
OH: R+2
PA: R+9
SC: D+5
TX: D+11
VA: R+6
WV: D+18
WI: D+3
WY: D+13

[Mr. Morden]

National, Pew Research:

Huh?  Pew Research?

[Mr. Morden]

Are you guys taking into account that PPP does have a left-leaning bias?

Actually it was the most accurate pollster in 2012, so I don't think there's much bias.

By what measure was it the most accurate pollster?

[Mr. Morden]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_909704.pdf

Mid-week poll, which could distort things some from the usual weekend poll; it might catch fewer working people than a weekend poll.

How is Sept. 4th-7th "mid-week"?

[Mr. Morden]

I'm talking about Eric's maps because in some parts of the post he uses red to represent Clinton, and in some parts he uses blue to represent Clinton and he should stick with one color for one candidate (not to be mean, but it just makes more sense).

Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]

Giving us this map:

You're right. It's annoying that the maps are like they are. But I figured it would probably be even more confusing if I consistently use the Atlas colors, since most people think of red and blue America as the Republican and Democratic America.

Not most people on this forum.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.argojournal.com/2015/03/poll-watch-emerson-college_0.html

Clinton 58%
Walker 38%

Clinton 59%
Bush 38%

Clinton 61%
Paul 36%

No change.

That's true.  This poll hasn't changed in the past month, since the first time you added it:

Emerson College poll of Massachusetts:

http://www.argojournal.com/2015/03/poll-watch-emerson-college_0.html

Clinton 58%
Walker 38%

Clinton 59%
Bush 38%

Clinton 61%
Paul 36%

[Mr. Morden]

It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses.

I expect zero participation in the caucuses, since New Hampshire doesn't hold caucuses.