2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

States that I would like to see polled:

Arizona
Colorado
Georgia
Illinois (Senate seat -- Chicago media, this is yours!)
Indiana (lots of luck!)
Kentucky (possible Presidential nominee)
Iowa
Missouri
Oregon (Governor in trouble)
Wisconsin (Senate seat, possible GOP Presidential nominee)

PPP does South Carolina this weekend. What state will Quinnipiac poll this weekend?

So far the Presidential election of 2016 is beginning to look much like the elections of 2008 and 2012. The surprise so far is that three successive Presidential elections could be similar.

...It is remarkable so far that we have no poll of a state west of the Appalachians (southeastern Ohio is Appalachian). But even with a 'mere' eight states one sees a pattern -- that against Hillary Clinton the Republican nominee for President will have a difficult time winning four states (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) that no Republican pol can reasonably win the Presidency without. If on Election night any one of these is called for Hillary Clinton, then the Republican nominee might as well have ready what is usually the finest speech possible -- the concession speech -- available. If any such state is called for Hillary Clinton before 11PM EST, then her supporters can simply await the calling of the states on the West Coast. If the states of the West Coast have just been called for her, then it is only a matter of time before one of these four states runs out of votes to count. 

Two states that must be close if the Republicans are to win the Presidency -- New Hampshire and Pennsylvania -- aren't close. Republican nominees can win without both (Dubya in 2004).       


Democrats other than Hillary Clinton are so far weak in their appeals to America as a whole. Joe Biden has had his chances, and his only remaining chance to be President is if something happens to...

PPP does South Carolina this weekend. South Carolina is fairly similar to the Deep South in politics -- much more than Georgia.  I predict nothing about South Carolina except that if it is at all close, my prediction that the Presidential election of 2016 will look much like those of 2008 and 2012 will be void.

[pbrower2a]

South Carolina and Georgia both are in the deep south...

Southern Georgia is as Deep South as Mississippi. Georgia has Atlanta, which includes a huge part of the state's population and has more in common with Cleveland than with southern Georgia. 

Georgia votes more like Missouri in Presidential elections than like Alabama, at least in recent years. 

[pbrower2a]

Marist -- IA, NH, SC.

First poll west of the Mississippi, and if you don't like the Marist poll of SC, then there will be one by PPP which will likely have more binary choices.

Marist poll of Iowa:

http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/iowa_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf

Clinton 48%
Bush 40%

Clinton 49%
Walker 38%

Marist poll of NH:

http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/new_hampshire_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf

Clinton 48%
Bush 42%

Clinton 49%
Walker 42%

Marist poll of SC:

http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/south_carolina_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf

Bush 48%
Clinton 45%

Clinton 46%
Walker 46%



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

The big one is Iowa. Just about any Republican nominee is going to win South Carolina. Of course, that South Carolina is so close suggests that Georgia is in play... but I will not call tht until I see it.

With the poll of Iowa I can predict that not only would Hillary Clinton win Iowa; she would also win Minnesota easily and Wisconsin. Iowa is politically similar to Wisconsin; sure, they voted on opposite sides in 2004, but both by razor-sharp margins.

Scott Walker fares no better than Jeb Bush in Iowa, so any spillover of Walker support from Wisconsin (where he would be a Favorite Son) is weak.

The only state that either Bush or Walker has a strong chance of winning north of the Ohio and of the Potomac is Indiana.   

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey -- Rutgers/Eagleton. Most significantly this is the fifth state since November 2014 in which Scott Walker has been polled. This may not be the most reliable pollster, but anyone who now or still sees New Jersey in play for any Republican nominee for President in 2016 lives in a fantasy world.

58-35 Clinton/Christie

58-32 Clinton/Bush

60-29 Clinton/Walker


http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rep-clinton2016-feb2015

I wouldn't make much of the shade difference between Walker and either Bush or Christie as it reflects a difference of only 2% -- but Scott Walker is not bringing fresh energy to the Republican chances of winning the Presidency in 2016.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Q, 6AM: Virginia, Iowa, and Colorado. We shall see how good the Marist poll is for Iowa and the college poll is for Virginia.

Quinnipiac polls CO, IA, and VA:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2149

Colorado

Clinton 43%
Paul 41%

Clinton 43%
Christie 34%

Clinton 44%
Bush 36%

Clinton 42%
Walker 40%

Clinton 44%
Huckabee 39%

Iowa

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 38%

Clinton 45%
Paul 37%

Clinton 44%
Christie 34%

Clinton 45%
Bush 35%

Clinton 45%
Walker 35%

Virginia

Bush 42%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 44%
Paul 42%

Clinton 44%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 44%
Christie 39%

Clinton 45%
Walker 40%

(I have averages for Virginia).

Eleven states now.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

We have eleven states polled, seven of them legitimate swing states.  (NJ, NY, PA, and SC are not).

States that I would like to see polled:

Arizona
Arkansas (Huckabee vs. Hillary Clinton)
Georgia
Illinois (Senate seat)
Kansas (is the GOP in disarray there?)
Missouri
Nevada
Oregon (aftermath of Kitzhaber trouble)
Wisconsin (Walker, Senate seat)

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas (Huckabee vs. Hillary Clinton)
Kansas (is the GOP in disarray there?)

Arkansas: Huckabee would win decisively
Kansas: No, the GOP is NOT in disarray there. National politics ≠ state politics

Huckabee would win Arkansas. Everybody else?
Kansas -- 2014 suggests trouble. 

[pbrower2a]

Best case based on current polling for Bush and Walker (Christie, Paul, and Huckabee -- you don't want to see it if you are one of their supporters):



Hillary Clinton red plus green -- against Jeb Bush blue plus yellow

Hillary Clinton red plus yellow -- against Scott Walker blue plus green

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 49%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%
Chris Christie .................................................. 43%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 49%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 43%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Scott Walker ................................................... 46%

I'm averaging the polls with those by Marist for her against Bush and Walker... Hillary Clinton will not win South Carolina. Those involving her against Christie, Huckabee, and Paul are obviously not averages. Weaknesses of Christie and Paul in South Carolina show how weak those two are in the South. Christie is as much a d@mnyankee as Obama, and Paul is too much of a libertarian for the authoritarian White South to win by Reagan-like margins.   

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[MT Treasurer]

The first blue state is appearing on the map...Every beginning is difficult.

[Tender Branson]

FL would actually be Bush+2 if you would include the Mason-Dixon poll.

[pbrower2a]

The first blue state is appearing on the map...Every beginning is difficult.

Selection bias in favor of "battleground" states... and the fact that most of them lean Clinton. I expect at most one poll from Alabama, Texas, or Wyoming. I don't expect to see much polling from Minnesota, Rhode Island, or Vermont either.     

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Gravis... not that it is a reliable pollster.

44-39 Clinton/Paul
45-40 Clinton/Huckabee
47-41 Clinton/Walker
43-37 Clinton/Bush
45-35 Clinton/Christie

http://gravismarketing.com/uncategorized/iowa-poll-walker-garners-24-of-gop-support-paul-clinton-beats-walker-others-head-to-head

It wouldn't change the map anyway.

[pbrower2a]

Nearly one fourth of all states polled.

Missouri, by someone whom I do not know:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 https://20poundsofheadlines.wordpress.com/2015/02/20/poll-hillary-trails-3-gop-contenders-in-missouri/

You can trust that there will be more polls.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[MT Treasurer]

It seems as if the Romney states will remain in the GOP column in 2016 barring a blowout.

[pbrower2a]

It seems as if the Romney states will remain in the GOP column in 2016 barring a blowout.

Basically, with the possible exceptions of Arizona and Georgia, the states that have not voted for Obama in 2008 are Safe R. That obviously will not be enough  to allow a Republican 'recovery' of the Presidency.  

[pbrower2a]

Yellow -- too close to call
Gray -- no cause to call

NE-02 is 'no cause to call'.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina (registered voters):

Adults:

46-38 Clinton/Bush

Registered voters:

46-40 Clinton/Bush

...

The live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 867 residents – of which, 773 said they were registered to vote – was conducted Feb. 16-20, 2015. They survey had a margin of error of 3.33 percentage points for all respondents and 3.52 percentage points for registered voters.

http://www.elon.edu/e-net/Article/109015
[/quote]

Pennsylvania (adults):

Clinton 49
Bush 32

Clinton 50
Christie 31

Clinton 50
Romney 29

http://www.mcall.com/mc-acrobat-morning-call-poll-politics-20150219-acrobat.html

[pbrower2a]

Elon, North Carolina. PPP will almost certainly supplant this one.  I'm not using the 'adult' poll from Pennsylvania.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more








[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Gravis (through Breitbart) -- Nevada

This comes from Gravis, through very right-wing Breitbart. Considering the source, it suggests that Nevada is at best (for Republicans) on the fringe of contention in 2016, and that there is little wiggle room for any Republican nominee against Hillary Clinton.  The Gravis poll of Iowa was close to that of less-derided polls, so maybe this one is valid. 

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/02/26/first-look-scott-walker-leads-in-nevada-poll-jeb-performs-worst-against-hillary/

Clinton 49%
Walker 43%

Clinton 49%
Paul 42%

Clinton 47%
Christie 38%

Clinton 50%
Bush 37%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

States that I would like to see polled:

Illinois (Senate race)
Wisconsin (Walker's state and a Senate race)
Indiana (lots of luck!)
Arizona
Georgia
Arkansas
Missouri (someone credible)
Kentucky (Paul's home state, gubernatorial contest)
Kansas

[pbrower2a]

Clinton 46%
Bush 42%

Clinton 45%
Christie 42%

Clinton 46%
Huckabee 46%

Clinton 46%
Paul 43%

Clinton 45%
Walker 43%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_30415.pdf

Elon looks good.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

March 2-3, 2015
Survey of 946 registered voters (most questions are about the US Senate):


Ohio, PPP:

Clinton 45 - Bush 40

Clinton 49 - Walker 41

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/01/OhioResults1.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more









[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Wisconsin:

The state in which Scott Walker is Governor does not really like him (approval 43%, disapproval 52%), and against Hillary Clinton he is down 52-43%. Against other Republicans she is close to 50% and ahead by at least 6%.

Scott Walker does not have a favorite-son advantage over other Republicans in Wisconsin. Wisconsin is now at most on the fringe of contention for Republicans for President. Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee do better against Hillary than Bush or Christie (alleged Establishment candidates).

Indeed, both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren would hold leads, if within the margin of error, against Scott Walker in Wisconsin. If Walker is going to lose Wisconsin 53-47, then the only Rust Belt state that he can win is Indiana. Just look at the Ohio polls.  

Wisconsin is split on the Right-to-Work legislation that the Wisconsin State legislature passed and Scott Walker signed by a 44-42 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WI_31015.pdf

  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more