2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[Mehmentum]

That's mostly because you have teabaggers who say they're undecided in Clinton v. mainstream Republican matchups, I would guess. They'll come home by election day.

Did we see a similar effect with Romney in 2012?

[The Daily Beagle]

That's mostly because you have teabaggers who say they're undecided in Clinton v. mainstream Republican matchups, I would guess. They'll come home by election day.

Did we see a similar effect with Romney in 2012?

Actually, Romney did as well as Bush amongst the base and the base was united behind as soon as it was clear that he was to be nominated. Romney's performance light red territory was Reagan, or at least 1988-like.

[pbrower2a]

First post-election poll in 2014:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.businessweek.com/pdfs/bloomberg-saint-anselm-purple-NH-survey-Q1-to-Q9-11-2014.pdf

Bloomberg is about as reputable a journalistic source as there is, and Hillary Clinton shows no sign of taking a hit from the GOP wave. Republicans will need a similar wave to win the Presidency or to hold the US Senate.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

No change to the general projection, although these decisive leads would be a disaster for the GOP. Out of politeness at this stage I keep showing Ohio as a legitimate swing state.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina:

Clinton- 46%
Bush- 46%

Clinton- 44%
Carson- 44%

Clinton- 44%
Christie- 42%

Clinton- 46%
Huckabee- 44%

Quinnipiac, New Jersey:

50-39 Hillary/Christie
52-35 Hillary/Romney
53-31 Hillary/Bush
55-31 Hillary/Paul

Favorables:

58-35 Hillary
45-47 Christie
25-32 Paul
25-35 Bush
36-48 Romney

Obama approval:

46-50 disapprove

From December 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,340 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2118

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

No change to the general projection, although these decisive leads would be a disaster for the GOP. Out of politeness at this stage I keep showing Ohio as a legitimate swing state.

[IceSpear]

It's actually Clinton 46, Huckabee 44.

[pbrower2a]

It's actually Clinton 46, Huckabee 44.

Map changed accordingly. Thank you.

North Carolina is an absolute must-win for the GOP in 2016 for both the Presidency and the Senate.

[pbrower2a]

New York, Quinnipiac, yawn. Fourth state since the 2014 election.


Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Gov. Cuomo both top leading Republican contenders in New York State in an early look at the 2016 presidential campaign. Clinton is up:

    60 - 29 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    61 - 26 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    57 - 31 percent over New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie.

Clinton's leads range from 14 to 24 percentage points among men and 36 to 44 percentage points among women.

Cuomo tops leading Republicans by smaller margins:

    51 - 31 percent over Jeb Bush;
    56 - 28 percent over Paul;
    49 - 35 percent over Christie.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

No change to the general projection, although these decisive leads would be a disaster for the GOP. Out of politeness at this stage I keep showing Ohio as a legitimate swing state.

[pbrower2a]

PPP will be polling the state in which Erie is in the northwestern corner (so written so that I can avoid excessive alliteration).

Yes, it's Pennsylvania. Plenty to poll. First of 2015, fifth state after the 2014 election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/01/pennsylvania-question-suggestions.html#comments

[pbrower2a]

I am bringing back this material on a State that rarely gets polled -- Indiana:



Indiana usually says something; it is about 10% more R than the rest of America in almost every Presidential election. Barack Obama campaigned heavily in Indiana and sank vast resources into the state to win it in 2008 and did not do so in 2012. He lost it by 10% in 2012 -- which should be a huge disappointment. Right?

Year     margin   

2012       10R
2008         1D
2004       21R
2000       16R
1996         6R*
1992         6R*
1988       20R
1984       24R
1980       18R*
1976         8R
1972       33R
1968       12R*
1964       12D
1960       10R
1956       20R
1952       17R
1948         1R
1944         7R
1940         1R

*Independent or third-party nominee may have had an effect. Bold is for the Democratic nominee winning the state. Bold indicates that the Democratic nominee won the state. Dark shades indicate electoral blowouts. Red -- the Democrat won the Presidential election in electoral and popular votes. Blue -- the Republican won the Presidential election in electoral and popular votes. Purple -- split on electoral and popular votes.

Wrong. Barack Obama campaigned extensively in Indiana in 2008 and won it -- and was effective enough in winning a raft of states that neither Gore nor Kerry won. He stayed out of Indiana in 2012 and lost it because he needed a laser focus on a small number of states that could decide the election. If he was going to win Indiana he was going to win Ohio anyway, but Ohio was easier for him to win against an opponent who could have overpowered him with campaign funds.   

Indiana has gone for the Republican nominee for President in 18 of the last 20 chances. This goes back to two elections involving FDR. Democratic nominees have won the popular vote 9 times and the Presidency 8 times -- and Republican nominees have won the popular vote 11 times and the Presidency 12 times.

The Republicans seem unable to win the Presidency if the Democrat loses the state by less than 11%. If Indiana votes by more than 11% for the Republican, then the Republican wins at the least the Electoral College (which is everything).

If you see the Republican nominee winning Indiana early in 2016 on Election Day but by a comparatively-small margin (let us say 7%), then it will be a bad night for the GOP.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, PPP. If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, then the road to a Republican Presidency is not the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Romney could win against Biden or Warren, though. 

Clinton -49%
Christie- 39%

Clinton- 49%
Bush- 38%

Clinton- 51%
Carson- 37%

Clinton- 51%
Huckabee- 39%

Clinton- 50%
Paul- 39%

Clinton- 50%
Romney- 40%

Clinton- 52%
Santorum- 36%

Romney- 43%
Biden- 41%

Romney- 44%
Warren- 36%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_122925.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

No change to the general projection, although these decisive leads would be a disaster for the GOP. Out of politeness at this stage I keep showing Ohio as a legitimate swing state.


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Using only polls following the 2014 election, and I add Mitt Romney with the expectation that someone will drop out of consideration.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Q, New Jersey. This supplants a post-election poll.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2127

Clinton 52%
Christie 39%

Clinton 53%
Bush 37%

Clinton 54%
Paul 35%

Clinton 56%
Huckabee 33%

Clinton 53%
Romney 38%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[Mehmentum]

I suspect that Chris Christie will be the one being dropped.

[pbrower2a]

I suspect that Chris Christie will be the one being dropped.

There was supposed to be a meeting between Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney.

[pbrower2a]

Polls that I would most like to see (and figure are likely to be shown):

1. Florida. We can decide once and for all whether Marco Rubio has any relevancy to the Presidential campaign.

2. Ohio. Has voted right in every Presidential election since 1960.

3. Colorado. Terribly ambiguous in 2014.

4. Wisconsin. Is Scott Walker a genuine possibility?

5. Nevada. Is Harry Reid holding his ground politically?

6. Georgia. A campaign-killer for any Republican who loses this state -- and there is an obvious choice to challenge Isakson.

7. Missouri. We can see whether Hillary Clinton can win back some Clinton-but-not-Obama voters there. It has potentially a weak Senate incumbent. Surprisingly similar to Georgia in its voting habits, but six fewer electoral votes than Georgia.

8. New Hampshire. How well is Kelly Ayotte doing in a D-leaning state? If she loses her seat, then the Democrats are nearly sure to end up with an effective majority in the Senate because the Vice-President will be the President of the Senate and have the deciding vote.

9. Virginia. No Sen ate seat, but very close to being the tipping-point state for the Presidency.

10. Indiana. Lots of luck on getting a reliable Indiana poll. If Indiana is a 10-point or less loss for the Democratic Presidential nominee, then the Democrat wins. 

Tie for 11 -- and highly contingent -- Arizona (in case the health of John McCain goes bad) or Iowa (likewise for Chuck Grassley).

[pbrower2a]

PPP will have a poll of North Carolina this weekend. North Carolina has been an interesting state for the last six years. We might get to add a couple spots on the map. I might have been interested in something else this week... but don't worry. We will have a near surfeit of Presidential polls soon enough.

[pbrower2a]

Mitt Romney has said that he is dropping out of consideration. One of his key campaign strategists went to Jeb Bush, which so suggested.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. mystery meat



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

(Scott "I will give liberals cause to emigrate" Walker reached 11% in a nationwide primary poll by PPP... so he could replace "mystery meat").

[pbrower2a]

This is from April 2014 (PPP)

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Scott
Walker, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 51%
Scott Walker ................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%


Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

(Scott "I will give liberals cause to emigrate" Walker reached 11% in a nationwide primary poll by PPP... so he could replace "mystery meat").

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac -- three electorally big states (FL, OH, PA). This corroborates PPP in the Keystone State and offers valuable information on two states not polled after Election 2014. 

Republicans FLOP against Clinton... get it? I wouldn't use that acronym except with this combination of states. 


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2130

Florida

Clinton 51%
Christie 33%

Clinton 44%
Bush 43%

Clinton 50%
Paul 38%

Clinton 51%
Huckabee 34%

Clinton 50%
Romney 37%

Clinton 49%
Rubio 39%

Ohio

Clinton 47%
Christie 33%

Clinton 47%
Bush 36%

Clinton 48%
Paul 36%

Clinton 49%
Huckabee 34%

Clinton 49%
Romney 37%

Clinton 44%
Kasich 43%

Pennsylvania

Clinton 50%
Christie 39%

Clinton 50%
Bush 35%

Clinton 53%
Paul 34%

Clinton 54%
Huckabee 34%

Clinton 53%
Romney 36%

Clinton 54%
Santorum 34%

...I'm showing Mitt Romney because he may have had indications that he was going to do this badly in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. If he did, then we have some possible insight on why he dropped out of contention.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

This is telling about Mitt Romney (from Q):

14. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            40%    37%    39%
Unfavorable          46     48     50
Hvn't hrd enough     12     12     10
REFUSED               3      2      2

A 36-36 split on favorability involving Marco Rubio in Florida suggests that he would be vulnerable in a bid for re-election to the US Senate.


 
 

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 44%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 44%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Ben Carson..................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Scott Walker ................................................... 44%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 44%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%

Joe Biden........................................................ 41%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 48%

Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 39%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 47%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


(Scott "I will give liberals cause to emigrate" Walker reached 11% in a nationwide primary poll by PPP... so he could replace "mystery meat").

...No more "mystery meat".

[pbrower2a]

Surprise! Romney would have edged Clinton in North Carolina.   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Granite State/University of New Hampshire/WMUR-TV

Republicans would love to get at least one state in New England. Democrats haven't won the Presidency without New Hampshire since 1976.


Clinton 51% - Bush 39%
Clinton 50% - Paul 40%  

No, they can expect to win nothing to the north and east of the Potomac.  


http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_winter_preselect020915.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire:



The average with a the Granite State/U-New Hampshire/WMUR-TV poll involving Rand Paul comes out to 49. Add Walker, though, in a state with a few similarities to his own state.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, college poll. Eighth state polled, and critical  for 2016.

Republicans would surely like to believe that Virginia will come back to its senses, and that the two Obama wins are simply blips in the state's historical pattern of voting Republican except in Democratic blowouts between 1952 and 2004.


48-43 Clinton vs. Bush

49-42 Clinton vs. Christie

51-42 Clinton vs. Rubio

52-42 Clinton vs. Huckabee

52-42 Clinton vs. Paul

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/Feb%2012%202015%20Report.pdf

Virginia now probably leans Democratic.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more