2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[New_Conservative]

Why do you think the Northern states and California are trending Republican in the polls, in theory, compared to the southern states?

I don't really take stock in polls that are taken 2 years away from the election but I find it interesting, states like California getting a +14% jump for Republicans. I don't expect it to stay like that but I'm wondering why that is.

Is it just a matter of the Democrats maxed out their vote with Obama in 2008 and 2012 since their base was extremely enthusiastic in both elections, and it's possible they are not as enthused heading into 2016? Or just a way the pollsters are polling?

[eric82oslo]

Why do you think the Northern states and California are trending Republican in the polls, in theory, compared to the southern states?

I don't really take stock in polls that are taken 2 years away from the election but I find it interesting, states like California getting a +14% jump for Republicans. I don't expect it to stay like that but I'm wondering why that is.

Is it just a matter of the Democrats maxed out their vote with Obama in 2008 and 2012?

Bad polling, that's the only explanation I have.
On the other hand, Obama was probably a near perfect match for California...but still.
Gravis Marketing seems to have a terribly strong Republican house bias, even in the two other states they've polled (Connecticut & Nevada).

[New_Conservative]

Why do you think the Northern states and California are trending Republican in the polls, in theory, compared to the southern states?

I don't really take stock in polls that are taken 2 years away from the election but I find it interesting, states like California getting a +14% jump for Republicans. I don't expect it to stay like that but I'm wondering why that is.

Is it just a matter of the Democrats maxed out their vote with Obama in 2008 and 2012?

Bad polling, that's the only explanation I have.
On the other hand, Obama was probably a near perfect match for California...but still.
Gravis Marketing seems to have a terribly strong Republican house bias, even in the two other states they've polled (Connecticut & Nevada).

But it seems that's the general result for most polls that have been released, trends in the opposite direction from 2012. (Southern states trending Democrat, Northern states trending Republican) Which is why I am wondering if both parties just maxed out their electorate in 2012 in those places. Like I said, I don't really take any stock in the polling this far out so I am not expecting a trend like that but I find it interesting that they bother releasing this data with such questionable information.

[eric82oslo]

Why do you think the Northern states and California are trending Republican in the polls, in theory, compared to the southern states?

I don't really take stock in polls that are taken 2 years away from the election but I find it interesting, states like California getting a +14% jump for Republicans. I don't expect it to stay like that but I'm wondering why that is.

Is it just a matter of the Democrats maxed out their vote with Obama in 2008 and 2012?

Bad polling, that's the only explanation I have.
On the other hand, Obama was probably a near perfect match for California...but still.
Gravis Marketing seems to have a terribly strong Republican house bias, even in the two other states they've polled (Connecticut & Nevada).

But it seems that's the general result for most polls that have been released, trends in the opposite direction from 2012. (Southern states trending Democrat, Northern states trending Republican) Which is why I am wondering if both parties just maxed out their electorate in 2012 in those places. Like I said, I don't really take any stock in the polling this far out so I am not expecting a trend like that but I find it interesting that they bother releasing this data with such questionable information.

Ah, right. I was only answering your California question, sorry.

I think there are at least three reasons why almost every state so far has been moving towards the center:

1) Hillary is seen as much more moderate/less liberal than Obama, rightly or wrongly (I don't think there is that much difference between them honestly, except for foreign policy possibly). It also helps that she's white and that people want to finally elect a woman president, plus being highly qualified (while Obama had almost no experience).
2) Hillary is partly connected to the South, Arkansas, rural places, while Obama for natural reasons has been linked to very urban, liberal and exotic places like Chicago, Hawaii, Indonesia and Africa/Kenya.
3) There are still (probably) a whole bunch of undecided voters who eventually will probably make the margins bigger in most states, or stop flirting with Hillary/the Republican nominees and return to their old parties once the campaigns get started for real and bad blood is being exchanged.

I do expect a less polarized map than in 2008/2012, perhaps much less so, but almost certainly not as smooth as it looks like at the moment. It will get more polarized, yet the question is by how much?

[Flake]

I really wish the color coding would be consistent.

Eric and I are measuring different things.

1. He has maps for swings, which I do not have.

2. He is averaging polls; I do not average polls unless the polls are within a week from each other. I normally replace polls with new ones.

3. I reject polls that seem grossly out of line (unless someone corroborates them) and any in which someone  leads with less than 40% of the vote. Thus I have no poll from New Hampshire, the poll that Eric accepted being something like a 38-37 poll.

4. Check the legends on any maps that either of us make.

I'm talking about Eric's maps because in some parts of the post he uses red to represent Clinton, and in some parts he uses blue to represent Clinton and he should stick with one color for one candidate (not to be mean, but it just makes more sense).

Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]

Giving us this map:

[pbrower2a]

Why do you think the Northern states and California are trending Republican in the polls, in theory, compared to the southern states?

I don't really take stock in polls that are taken 2 years away from the election but I find it interesting, states like California getting a +14% jump for Republicans. I don't expect it to stay like that but I'm wondering why that is.

Is it just a matter of the Democrats maxed out their vote with Obama in 2008 and 2012 since their base was extremely enthusiastic in both elections, and it's possible they are not as enthused heading into 2016? Or just a way the pollsters are polling?

Reversion to the mean?

Barack Obama is about as polarizing a politician as there has been.

[eric82oslo]

I'm talking about Eric's maps because in some parts of the post he uses red to represent Clinton, and in some parts he uses blue to represent Clinton and he should stick with one color for one candidate (not to be mean, but it just makes more sense).

Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]

Giving us this map:

You're right. It's annoying that the maps are like they are. But I figured it would probably be even more confusing if I consistently use the Atlas colors, since most people think of red and blue America as the Republican and Democratic America.
I will keep it in mind, and perhaps change it one day. I could of course change the maps as well, so that red would actually mean Republican on the maps too, but wouldn't that just be even more confusing? I'm sure it would.

[eric82oslo]

Following the Iowa steak fry with retiring Senator Tom Harkin yesterday, Hillary doesn't even get one day of rest, as today she's being pitted against Jeb and Rand Paul in Arkansas. This time they did really well against her there, yet still trailing substantially to native son Mike on the averages of the 4 polls released in Arkansas so far:

Vs Huckabee: R +9.5% (2 polls)
Vs Cruz: R +4%
Vs Bush: R +2.3% (2 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: Toss up (4 polls)
Vs Christie: D +3.3% (3 polls)

In other words, it's still Huck time in the Little Rock State.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 169.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on September 15, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%
4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 15.

[pbrower2a]

Gravis Marketing, Arkansas

Paul (R)- 48%
Clinton (D)- 42%

Bush (R)- 49%
Clinton (D)- 42%

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/telephone-survey-arkansas-political-poll/


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[Mr. Morden]

I'm talking about Eric's maps because in some parts of the post he uses red to represent Clinton, and in some parts he uses blue to represent Clinton and he should stick with one color for one candidate (not to be mean, but it just makes more sense).

Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]

Giving us this map:

You're right. It's annoying that the maps are like they are. But I figured it would probably be even more confusing if I consistently use the Atlas colors, since most people think of red and blue America as the Republican and Democratic America.

Not most people on this forum.

[eric82oslo]

And along comes the 14th North Carolina poll on the 2016 race. Once more it's confirmed that candidate quality truely matters. Christie is slipping fast: In this latest poll, he's only the 4th most popular (out of 5) GOP candidates. The new NC averages are:

Vs Bush: D +1.6% (11 polls, up +0.4%)
Vs Christie: D +2.1% (11 polls, down -0.5%)
Vs Huckabee: D +3.4% (7 polls, up +0.8%)
Vs Rand Paul: D +4.8% (13 polls)
Vs Rubio: D +7%
Vs Cruz: D +8% (5 polls)

Bush has for the 1st time surpassed Christie in popularity in this vital battleground state.
Jeb now polls the best in 6 states, including the crucial states of Florida, NC and Arizona, making him currently the 2nd strongest GOPer in the country.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 170.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on September 15, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%
4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 16.

[pbrower2a]

NC, PPP

-The 2016 Presidential race in North Carolina continues to look like it will be close if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, but the numbers are a little bit better for Republicans this month. Clinton trails both Jeb Bush (45/43) and Mike Huckabee (46/45) by modest margins. She leads Rand Paul (46/41), Chris Christie (45/38), and Ted Cruz (48/40) in hypothetical head to heads.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/hagan-lead-steady-at-4-points.html

Hillary seems to have slipped a bit.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

The most recent poll by PPP of North Carolina compels me to rate North Carolina as a pure toss-up with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee. Christie and Paul lose, but Bush and Huckabee get bare edges. Mixed results imply a tie.

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Adjusting for Alaska. I ignore Sarah Palin. I also ignore the Gravis poll for Wisconsin because the one binary choice involves Paul Ryan, who has never done well anywhere and is a classic non-choice for the Presidency.



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[eric82oslo]

PPP just released its 2nd 2016 poll of the day - which also happens to be the 4th one from Kansas. Of the 5 GOPers, only Cruz is trailing Clinton, and here are the new Kansas averages:

Cruz: D +1% (2 polls, down 2%)
Christie: R +4.3% (3 polls, down 1.2%)
Rand Paul: R +4.3% (3 polls, down 1.2%)
Rubio: R +5%
Huckabee: R +5% (3 polls, down 1%)
Paul Ryan: R +7%
Bush: R +7% (3 polls, down 0.5%)

That means that Jeb is losing his exclusive lead in Kansas - he has to share it with Paul Ryan for now. However, since Bush has been polled more extensively, he's probably keeping the edge, though that's speculation.
Kansas is now the state showing the 2nd strongest shift towards Hillary, after Kentucky - and just before Arkansas.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 171.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on September 15, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%
3. Arkansas: D +14.2%
4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 17.

[eric82oslo]

Today we got the 7th poll of Louisiana, and the 1st one of the state from Gravis. It only polled 2 candidates, Paul doing poorly & Bush with a substantial lead. Here are the new averages against Hillary:

Jeb Bush: R +3.25% (4 polls, up 0.6%)
Mike Huckabee: R +3% (2 polls)
Rand Paul: R +1.5% (4 polls, down -0.2%)
Paul Ryan: R +1% (2 polls)
Ted Cruz: D +1%
Chris Christie: D +1.33% (3 polls)
Bobby Jindal: D +2.8% (5 polls)
Marco Rubio: D +3%

As was the case in North Carolina yesterday, Bush advances to the top of the field in another state, by surpassing Huckabee's strenght in Louisiana! With this, Jeb is becoming a serious contender for sure.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 172.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on September 15, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Bush: R +3.25%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%
3. Arkansas: D +14.2%
4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3.25%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Louisiana (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 82 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 61 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 17.

[pbrower2a]

PPP poll of Kansas:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/orman-davis-lead-kansas-races.html#more

Bush 46%
Clinton 40%

Christie 42%
Clinton 40%

Clinton 44%
Cruz 41%

Huckabee 45%
Clinton 42%

Paul 43%
Clinton 41%

I find it hard to believe that Kansas could be close in the 2016 Presidential election -- but ignoring Ted Cruz (who puts the GOP at risk of losing as badly as Barry Goldwater did in 1964), Kansas would be in play with any Republican other than Jeb Bush.

We're talking about Kansas. Something is going on there. All that I can figure is that the Hard Right fully took over the GOP and purged away the moderates -- but forgot to govern competently. What were moderates in the GOP can basically join the Kansas Democratic Party and take it over much as dissident Democrats took over the Republican Party in some Southern states. It's only six electoral votes, so it isn't as significant as Virginia. The Republican Party still can't afford to lose Kansas.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

I don't really like to change this map often, especially over a state with 'only' six electoral votes. But the state in question is Kansas, and at this point the state is beginning to show trouble for all potential GOP nominees except Jeb Bush. That is without taking Ted Cruz seriously. Three of four potential nominees would make Kansas very close in 2016.

States have rarely flipped as sharply as Kansas seems to be doing now.  This is 'awry' for Republicans who can't afford to lose anything that they used to find reliable, and potentially wondrous for Democrats.     



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[pbrower2a]

For what it is worth, Gravis shows Hillary Clinton only 2% behind Rand Paul in Kentucky.  Nothing else that fits this map, but that is a very weak performance for someone who should be a Favorite Son in a state that has gone R by large margins in the last few Presidential elections.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[eric82oslo]

And along came Gravis reasearching the bluegrass state of Kentucky carefully for us. Or perhaps not so carefully, as Rand Paul was the only GOPer tested. Pretty bad news for him, as it showed him basically with a statistical tie against Hillary in his own home state. Here are the new Kentucky averages:

Vs Bush: R +4.5% (2 polls)
Vs Huckabee: R +3%
Vs Rand Paul: R +2.7% (7 polls, down 0.1%)
Vs Christie: R +0.5% (2 polls)
Vs Cruz: D +4% (2 polls)
Vs Rubio: D +7% (2 polls)

Jeb still rules this state for now.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 173.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on September 15, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Bush: R +3.25%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%
3. Arkansas: D +14.2%
4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3.25%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Louisiana (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 82 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 61 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 18.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Arkansas

Hillary vs Huckabee:41-53 (R+12%)
Hillary vs Bush: 41-46 (R+5%)
Hillary vs Rand Paul: 43-45 (R+2%)
Hillary vs Cruz: 43-44 (R+1%)

Hillary vs Christie: 42-41 (D+1%)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/gop-ticket-leads-in-arkansas.html#more

Possibly in contention in 2016; the Senate race is a toss-up.


Christie looks like a horrible match for Arkansas. Really, if Rand Paul can do no better in Arkansas and Kentucky than recent polls suggest, he could lose the popular vote 55-45.

Alaska, PPP:


Hillary Clinton: 39%
Jeb Bush: 44%

Hillary Clinton: 36%
Chris Christie: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 39%
Ted Cruz: 46%

Hillary Clinton: 40%
Mike Huckabee: 44%

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Sarah Palin: 38%

Hillary Clinton: 40%
Rand Paul: 45%

The most northerly state in the Union looks like a Southern state in its voting. The most southerly state in the Union votes as if it were in New England.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

I don't really like to change this map often, especially over a state with 'only' six electoral votes. The shift of Arkansas from barely R for everyone but Huckabee to having mixed results in polling forces a category change -- over very little.
  



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[eric82oslo]

Today we got two new PPP state polls of Arkansas and Alaska. They generally show some good news for the GOPers in Arkansas, while the race in Alaska is relatively unchanged, though being slightly more favorable towards Hillary than the previous consensus. Except when it comes to Christie, who happened to have a fantastic Alaska poll this time around, leading Hillary there by a shocking 10%. A sign of a turnarond thanks to the recent news report stating his non-involvement in Bridgegate or simply a one time fluke? Time will tell. In the meantime, here are the new candidate averages in the two states:

Arkansas:

Vs Huckabee: R +10.3% (3 polls, up 0.8%)
Vs Bush: R +3.0% (4 polls, up 0.7%)
Vs Cruz: R +2.5% (2 polls, down 1.5%)
Vs Rand Paul: R +0.4% (5 polls, up 0.4%)

Vs Christie: D +2.75% (4 poll, up 0.55%)

As we see, Huckabee is increasing his lead in his home state by 0.8%, and he appears now more than three times as lethal there as Jeb (or any other candidate). Christie would have a very hard time in the state however! While Cruz continues to do shockingly well. Surely, Arkansas is a much more conservative state than your average state, further illustrated by how bad both of the moderates, Chris and Rand, do there.


Alaska:

Vs Rand Paul: R +7.4% (5 polls, down 0.6%)
Vs Bush: R +7% (5 polls, down 0.5%)
Vs Cruz: R +7%
Vs Christie: R +6.2% (6 polls, up 0.8%)
Vs Huckabee: R +4.25% (4 polls, unchanged)
Vs Rubio: R +1% (2 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: R +1%

Vs Palin: D +6.8% (6 polls, up 0.2%)

Alaska on the other hand, is a different game altogether, although it appears somewhat more moderate than Arkansas. Cruz does shockingly well in this state as well, although this is the very first time he's been tested in Alaska. On the other hand, Huckabee does pretty badly here (could it be because Alaskans generally are not that religious and also that the state has a considerably younger population than your average state?) On the same time, the candidate with the most modern approach and the most fresh ideas (and thus more of a moderate), Rand Paul, is leading the pack still in Alaska. Favourite daughter Sarah is not much of a favourite, she would usually do about 14.2% worse than Rand in the state, if the election turned out to be a match-up with Hillary. So instead of winning the state by 7, she would actually be losing the state by 7! All in all, Hillary improves her take on her GOP foes in Alaska with 0.6% from the previous consensus.

A slight improvement for Hillary in Alaska and a slightly more unfavorable picture for her in Arkansas means a pretty unchanged race overall. She thus continues to lead the tailor-made Republican (a superman type of candidate which in reality doesn't or won't exist) by a strong 6% nationally.

[eric82oslo]

With PPP's release of its two newest polls in Alaska and Arkansas (see previous post for more details), we now have an impressive 175 state polls registered into the 2016 database.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 175.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Bush: R +3.25%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%
3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Arkansas: D +13.4%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3.25%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Louisiana (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 82 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 61 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 24.

[eric82oslo]

With Roanoke doing its 3rd Virginia poll of the season, here's how it rolls in Virginia right now (current averages against Hillary):

Vs Christie: D +4.5% (11 polls, down 0.8%)
Vs Rubio: D +7.6% (5 polls)
Vs Bush: D +8.7% (3 polls)
Vs Bob McDonnell: D +9% (3 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +9.9% (10 polls, down 0.5%)
Vs Walker: D +11%
Vs Huckabee: D +11.5% (2 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: D +11.6% (5 polls, down 0.35%)
Vs Cruz: D +12.3% (3 polls)

A sharp deterioration of Christie's numbers in this crucial battleground state. Despite a grand total of 15 polls, some of the main contenders have hardly even been polled here, Jeb included. Virginia is now trending ever so slightly Democratic.

The total number of state polls included below has now reached 176.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Bush: R +3.25%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%
3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Arkansas: D +13.4%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3.25%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Louisiana (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 82 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 61 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 25.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Roanoake Poll:

Hillary vs Christie: D +10% (47-37)
Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +13% (50-37)
Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +16% (51-35)

Writes Roanoke: "Clinton has widened her lead over both Paul and Ryan, but the Christie margin is unchanged. The July RC Poll included registered voters, but did not screen for likely voters, so the results may not be directly comparable. "

http://roanoke.edu/A-Z_Index/Institute_for_Policy_and_Opinion_Research/Recent_News_Releases/RC_Poll_Election_Sept_2014.htm

Nothing on Jeb Bush or Mike Huckabee. This confirms what a weak candidate Rand Paul would be, and that Paul Ryan has shown that he is not Presidential.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







[/quote]