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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 110560 times)
eric82oslo
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« Reply #325 on: June 24, 2014, 10:45:43 am »
« edited: June 25, 2014, 07:50:51 am by eric82oslo »

Who's ahead and in how many states?

1. Hillary is leading in 15 states (Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, New Jersey, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire & Maine)
for a total of 216 EVs

2. Huckabee is leading in 3 states (Texas, Louisiana & Arkansas) for a total of 52 EVs

3. Jeb Bush is leading in 5 states (Arizona, Kentucky, Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
for a total of 33 EVs

4. Christie is leading in 4 states (Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi & Wyoming) for a total of 33 EVs

5. Ryan is leading in 1 state (Colorado) for a total of 9 EVs

6. Rubio is leading in 1 state (South Carolina) for a total of 9 EVs

7. Rand Paul is leading in 1 state (Montana) for a total of 3 EVs
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #326 on: June 25, 2014, 02:06:04 pm »
« Edited: July 24, 2014, 04:43:46 pm by pbrower2a »

Maybe Field will slip in a poll of California. No big surprises would be likely -- but the state has 55 electoral votes.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #327 on: June 25, 2014, 06:25:32 pm »

PPP is going to poll Michigan and Louisiana this weekend. Cheesy
Will Huckabee still be "far" ahead of Hillary in Louisiana?
And will Christie's decent numbers start to slip a bit in Michigan?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #328 on: June 25, 2014, 08:27:54 pm »

2014 Senate election states where we still haven't had a single poll (waiting patiently for these states finally to be polled for 2016):

*Alabama
*Delaware
*Hawaii
*Idaho
*Illinois
*Massachusetts
*Nebraska
*Oklahoma
*Rhode Island
*South Dakota
*Tennessee


States where we've already had polls, yet there are no Senate elections this year (now this is neat, thanks pollsters!):

*Arizona
*Florida
*New York
*Ohio
*Pennsylvania
*Wisconsin

States where we still don't have any polls and where there are no Senate elections this year (and where we'll probably get no 2016 polls until November/December the earliest):

*California
*Connecticut
*Indiana
*Maryland
*Missouri
*Nevada
*North Dakota
*Utah
*Vermont
*Washington

That's it. Smiley
The remaining 23 states have all already been both 2016-polled (at least once; some up to 12 times) and will have at least one Senate race to be decided this year as well.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #329 on: July 02, 2014, 12:09:50 pm »
« Edited: July 17, 2014, 12:49:26 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP poll of Michigan:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/07/michigan-miscellany.html

Clinton 47%
Bush 37%

Clinton 48%
Christie 35%

Clinton 50%
Cruz 34%

Clinton 48%
Huckabee 36%

Clinton 47%
Paul 37%
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #330 on: July 02, 2014, 02:08:39 pm »

Try updating Michigan again for Huckabee, pbrower. Tongue
I doubt Hillary leads in pink fashion against her Arkansas arch rival. Tongue
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #331 on: July 03, 2014, 03:53:45 am »
« Edited: July 03, 2014, 04:07:20 am by eric82oslo »

PPP released its 5th Michigan poll yesterday, which is also the 8th overall match up poll from the state this season, regardless of pollster. Despite a horrific dump in this one particular poll for Christie, he still continues to lead the GOP field in the state. However, Hillary's lead on him has increased by 1.3%, from +4.8% to +6.1%. Not much worse is Paul Ryan, trailing her by "just" 7%. Worst of the pack is Rubio doing, trailing her by an eye-popping 15.5%. Here's how each of the 7 tested GOP candidates are doing against Hillary on average in Michigan:

Chris Christie: -6.1%
Paul Ryan: -7%
Jeb Bush: -9.75%
Rand Paul: -10.6%
Mike Huckabee: -12%
Ted Cruz: -12.3%
Marco Rubio: -15.5%

With this latest update, Michigan should no longer be considered the the most likely 2016 tipping point state.

I've also slightly tweaked the colour intervals for the lead and trend maps, making toss-ups now include all leads up to 0.5%.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 133.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement

(Updated on June 25, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.2%
+1.6% R improvement
(Updated on June 23, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19, 2013)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.2%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.05%

+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%

9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%

11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%


All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +4.2%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 3.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #332 on: July 03, 2014, 04:29:37 am »
« Edited: July 12, 2014, 06:27:26 pm by eric82oslo »

Updated today, June 3!

To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far, I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. New York - 39 EVs
5. Rhode Island - 43 EVs (still not polled)
6. Maryland - 53 EVs (still not polled)
7. Massachusetts - 64 EVs (still not polled)
8. California - 119 EVs (still not polled)
9. Delaware - 122 EVs (still not polled)
10. Connecticut - 129 EVs (still not polled)
11. Illinois - 149 EVs (still not polled)
12. Washington - 161 EVs (still not polled)
13. New Mexico - 166 EVs
14. Oregon - 173 EVs
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Nevada - 197 EVs (still not polled for 2016!)
18. Ohio - 215 EVs
19. Michigan - 231 EVs
20. Minnesota - 241 EVs

21. Florida - 270 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

22. Wisconsin - 280 EVs
23. Iowa - 286 EVs
24. Pennsylvania - 306 EVs
25. Virginia - 319 EVs
26. New Hampshire - 323 EVs
27. North Carolina - 338 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

28. Arizona - 349 EVs
29. Georgia - 365 EVs
30. Arkansas - 371 EVs
31. Colorado - 380 EVs
32. Kentucky - 388 EVs
33. Louisiana - 396 EVs
34. South Carolina - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Mississippi - 452 EVs
38. Kansas - 458 EVs
39. Missouri - 468 EVs (still not polled)
40. Indiana - 479 EVs (still not polled)
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. North Dakota - 493 EVs (still not polled)
45. Tennessee - 504 EVs (still not polled)
46. Nebraska - 509 EVs (still not polled)
47. Alabama - 518 EVs (still not polled)
48. Wyoming - 521 EVs
49. Idaho - 525 EVs (still not polled)
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)

So the tipping point state has changed from Michigan to Florida! Surprise surprise. In that case, it would be the first time since the 2000 election (I believe) that Florida would be back to being the single most important state in the election. With its heavy 29 electoral vote gravity, it's not all that hard to believe in such an outcome.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #333 on: July 08, 2014, 10:43:55 am »

Quinnipiac, nationwide (and ugly for Republicans):

In the 2016 presidential race, American voters back Hillary Clinton over leading Republican contenders:

    47 - 38 percent over Christie;
    49 - 40 percent over Paul;
    49 - 40 percent over Huckabee;
    48 - 41 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2058


 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #334 on: July 08, 2014, 12:48:51 pm »
« Edited: July 17, 2014, 12:50:01 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP, Louisiana

Jeb Bush......................................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 46%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Chris Christie .................................................. 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Bobby Jindal ................................................... 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_LA_702.pdf

It now looks as if almost all the gains that the Republicans have made with Louisiana voters beginning in 2000 have evaporated. The two leads shown by Republicans are razor-thin and unreliable.

Hillary Clinton seems to have kept just about every voter that Barack Obama picked up for 2012 while not being so polarizing in the South. I am satisfied that there is more to her campaign in 2016 than nostalgia for a better time.    
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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eric82oslo
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« Reply #335 on: July 12, 2014, 11:59:42 am »
« Edited: July 12, 2014, 12:02:41 pm by eric82oslo »

Only two more states have been polled during my week-long holiday fortunately, and the Rand Paul-Hillary match up in Florida didn't change anything, as Jeb Bush still trumps Paul in the state with about 5 percentage points.

More interesting is of course the new PPP poll out from Louisiana. It's actually already the 6th 2016 poll from the state. With this poll of 6 potential GOPers, here are the current match up averages in Louisiana:

Mike Huckabee: +3%
Jeb Bush: +2.67%
Rand Paul: +1.67%
Paul Ryan: +1%
Ted Cruz: -1%
Chris Christie: -1.33%
Bobby Jindal: -1.57%
Marco Rubio: -3%

In other words, half of the GOP contenders polled in the state are looking decent on paper, while the other half are looking like misfits for the state's voters. It's a fight between Huckabee & Bush for the GOP leader role in the state. Also, this means that Hillary improves on her previous Louisiana record by a +2% bump in the former French colony, going from -5% to her current -3%. Meaning that Hillary is only experiencing a stronger Democratic swing in two other states; Kentucky & Arkansas, coincidentially southern states as well. Looks like the South is pretty ready for a female commander-in-charge!


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 135.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement

(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.2%
+1.6% R improvement
(Updated on June 23, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19, 2013)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.2%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.12%

+3.5% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.35% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%

9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%

11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%


All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.35%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +4.2%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 12.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #336 on: July 12, 2014, 01:50:39 pm »

PPP is polling Mississippi this week and Colorado next week. Both should be extremely interesting.

No Democratic nominee for President has won Mississippi since 1976 (Carter); the conditions in which Carter won Mississippi are long past.

The state that would really be interesting is Tennessee.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #337 on: July 17, 2014, 09:48:47 am »
« Edited: July 17, 2014, 09:54:34 am by eric82oslo »

It's pay day! Cheesy I mean POLL DAY! Tongue Today, Marist & Quinnipiac have released polling data from three crucial battlegrounds: Colorado, Iowa & New Hampshire. Overall they don't really change the picture very much, as Hillary is still trailing in Colorado. Also, she's basically tied with Rand Paul and Christie in Iowa, which undoubtedly is bad news for her, despite having an immensely strong favorable rating there.

Here are the current averages by state...

Colorado:

(Paul Ryan: R+3.5%)
Rand Paul: R+1.57%
Christie: R+1.13%
Huckabee: D+3.67%
Bush: D+5.5%

Iowa:

Christie: D+3.93%
Rand Paul: D+5.58%
Rubio: D+7.59%
Bush: D+7.68%
Walker: D+8.5%
Cruz: D+9.78%

New Hampshire:

(Huckabee: D+2.1%)
Christie: D+3.65%
Rand Paul: D+6.88%
Bush: D+7.15%
Walker: D+9%
Rubio: D+10.03%
Cruz: D+14.67%

Unfortunately Paul Ryan wasn't polled in Colorado, while they didn't poll Huckabee in New Hampshire. Sad Keep in mind that Huckabee's NH average is based on one single poll only.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 138.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement

(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19, 2013)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.2%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.1%

+3.5% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%

9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%

11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%


All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 17.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #338 on: July 17, 2014, 11:31:37 am »
« Edited: July 17, 2014, 12:51:40 pm by pbrower2a »

Four states polled, three of them legitimate swing states, and Mississippi gives some interesting results:

Marist, New Hampshire:

Clinton 47% Christie 42%
Clinton 47% Bush 42%
Clinton 46% Paul 43%
Clinton 48% Walker 39%
Clinton 51% Cruz 38%
Clinton 47%  Rubio 42%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrats-ready-hillary-everyone-else-not-much-n157821

Iowa (Marist)

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http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrats-ready-hillary-everyone-else-not-much-n157821

Mississippi (PPP)

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_MS_717.pdf

Colorado, Quinnipiac

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2060  
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #339 on: July 17, 2014, 12:09:44 pm »

I can make some conclusions:

1. Colorado and Iowa are at best shaky for Hillary Clinton.

2. New Hampshire is probably not a swing state.

3. Mississippi shows that the R stranglehold on Southern politics is weakening. 

Mississippi margins in Presidential elections:

2012   12%
2008   13%
2004   19%
2000   17%
1996     5%
1992     9%
1988   21%
1984   24%
1980     1%

1976     2%

It may be hard to believe now, but Carter came close to winning Mississippi despite a nationwide drubbing. Bill Clinton, like Jimmy Carter, was a Southern moderate running against a Yankee.

Mississippi may be reverting to its old norms in partisan identity, or partisanship could be eroding there. I cannot discern which trend is in effect in Mississippi; such cannot be told in two polls.

Missouri and Tennessee would be interesting.  With 10 and 11 electoral votes at stake in those states, those two states are not trivialities. 
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« Reply #340 on: July 17, 2014, 12:48:22 pm »
« Edited: July 17, 2014, 12:52:33 pm by pbrower2a »

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #341 on: July 17, 2014, 01:35:27 pm »

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest: 



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012 75
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 56
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12

The controversial ones are Missouri (Georgia now looks like a good analogue for Missouri with KC + STL = ATL; it's about half Iowa and half Arkansas, which both register as ties), Tennessee (which I am placing politically about halfway between Georgia and Mississippi or Georgia and Kentucky). Until I see commanding evidence to the contrary I practically define Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia as swing states. I'm giving ND as more solidly R than SD because of the boom in natural gas in North Dakota. Indiana? NE-02? Go figure.
 
I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012. 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #342 on: July 20, 2014, 04:40:44 pm »
« Edited: July 24, 2014, 08:06:01 pm by eric82oslo »

PPP has polled Mississippi for the 2nd time this season, and that means some great news for Hillary. Sure, she is still predictably lagging behind most GOP contenders, but considerably less than in the previous PPP survey. Huckabee was included for the first time in Mississippi, and with that he's snapped the current GOP lead of the state from Christie. This is the average lead over Hillary each candidate enjoys in the state right now:

Huckabee: R+7%
Jeb Bush: R+6.5%
Christie: R+6%
Rand Paul: R+2%
Cruz: R+1%

Also, a Survey USA poll has now tested Christie against Hillary in Florida, which didn't change anything, as he was still trailing her by 11% in the state, as well as an average trail of 10.7% in the 6 Florida match ups featuring him so far.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 140.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement

(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.2%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.2%

+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%

9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%

11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 29 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 23.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #343 on: July 20, 2014, 04:49:10 pm »

And people try to say Hillary would've been a worse candidate than Obama in '08. Pfft. I know her tenure as Secretary of State has bolstered her credentials and endeared her to the public, but the point is, she is naturally a good fit for some of these traditional R states.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #344 on: July 22, 2014, 07:42:27 pm »

Survey USA, Florida

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.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9879b1f3-f54d-4ae5-ba27-5a1b5207710a
 
Nothing on Huckabee, but we have plenty of polls involving him.

If Florida is a quick call for the Democrat, then the election is settled.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #345 on: July 23, 2014, 01:20:39 pm »

Virginia, Roanoake College

Hillary Clinton holds significant and very similar leads over Republicans Chris Christie (44%-34%), Rand Paul (47%-37%), and Paul Ryan (47%-38%).

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/News_Archive/RC_Poll_July_2014_Election_poll.htm

There's a partial poll by Gravis Marketing for right-wing Human Events, showing Jeb Bush up 49-39 on Hillary Clinton. It would change nothing even if I accepted it.


Nothing on Huckabee or Jeb Bush, but we have plenty of polls involving him.

If Virginia is a quick call for the Democrat, then the election is settled.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




[/quote]
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #346 on: July 23, 2014, 01:53:33 pm »
« Edited: July 23, 2014, 02:18:48 pm by eric82oslo »

We have two new polls out today, one in Virginia and the other in Montana. Both look fairly decent for Hillary, while the Virginia poll is truely splendid news. Now, there's no question that Brian Schweitzer would be a considerably stronger presidential candidate for Montana than Hillary would. I'm unsure if I should switch the two in the Montana data as a result. Perhaps the better solution is to keep tracking Hillary in the state, but simultaneously keeping Schweitzer's numbers between brackets ().

Here are the current match up averages for Hillary in Montana:

Rand Paul: R +13%
Christie: R +11%
Cruz: R +11%
Rubio: R +8%
Bush: R +7%
Paul Ryan: R +7%

Schweitzer's strongest opponent in Montana would also be Rand Paul, whom he is trailing by "only" 8%, which is actually 5 percentage points stronger than Hillary achieves against him! Second strongest is Paul Ryan, which he trails by 4%. Then follows Christie at 3.5% (7.5 percentage points better than for Hillary!) and Cruz at 3% (an astonishing 8 percentage point better than Hillary does!). Despite Schweitzer's strong home state bounce, he is only ahead of one GOPer yet, Jeb Bush and just by a single point. Schweitzer & Rubio are currently tied.

The current match up averages for Hillary in Virginia:

Christie: D +3.64%
Rubio: D +7.6%
Bush: D +8.67%
Bob McDonnell: D +9%
Rand Paul: D +9.4%
Walker: D +11%
Paul Ryan: D +11.25%
Huckabee: D +11.5%
Cruz: D +12.3%

We see an average improvement, from the previous update, for Hillary in Virginia over her strongest opponent Christie of +0.45%. No change is recorded in Montana however.

The entire update, with maps and all, to follow in my next post! I've exceeded the 11 000 characters allowed...

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eric82oslo
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« Reply #347 on: July 23, 2014, 02:01:09 pm »
« Edited: July 24, 2014, 08:03:53 pm by eric82oslo »

So here's the rest of the update, following the two new polls from Gravis Marketing & Roanoke College in Montana & Virginia. Gravis did not poll the GOP frontrunner Rand Paul in Montana, so no change their (unfortunately). Notice how a Christie/Clinton match up would result in virtually no change from Obama/Romney in Virginia! That means that Virginia, just like Oregon and New York, seems "electorally stuck" at the moment, marked as green on the trendline map. However, Christie is not the strongest GOP option in Oregon, like he seems likely to be in Virginia and New York.

Also, I just noticed that I've compared Arkansas' numbers with Obama's 2008 numbers. As Obama did considerably worse in Arkansas in 2012, Hillary's actual improvement in the state is actually 21%, not the 17% which I've been reporting lately. This fact also strenghtens Hillary's projected national lead somewhat, up to her current +7.6%.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 142.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement

(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.2%

+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.55% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%

9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%

11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.55%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 29 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 23.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #348 on: July 23, 2014, 10:44:28 pm »

Now that the Senate and Gubernatorial races in Georgia are set, we ought to see some polls from Georgia.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #349 on: July 24, 2014, 03:37:59 pm »
« Edited: July 24, 2014, 08:00:18 pm by eric82oslo »

Quinnipiac has just polled Florida, so that means we now have 15 separate 2016 polls from this state already (6 from Quinnipiac, 4 from Survey USA, 3 from PPP, and 1 each from Gravis Marketing & Saint Leo University). In this latest poll, Hillary leads her 5 GOP opponents, of which two are Floridians, by margins ranging from 7% to 21%, the median being 14%.

Here are Hillary's current average leads in Florida:

Vs Bush: D +5.82% (up +0.1% from last average)
Vs Rubio: D +9.8%
Vs Paul Ryan: D +11.2%
Vs Rand Paul: D +11.6%
Vs Christie: D +12.1%
Vs Huckabee: D +12.5%
Vs Cruz: D +17.8%

In other words, Clinton's average lead of all 15 Florida polls range between a 6% and an 18% margin against the 7 GOP candidates having been tested there. Not much different from her 7% to 21% margins in the latest poll released today. Bush and Rubio have both been tested against her in 11 different polls.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 143.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.2%

+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%

9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%

11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.9%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 29 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 24.
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