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  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 110511 times)
eric82oslo
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« Reply #300 on: May 21, 2014, 04:08:26 pm »

PPP will poll Oregon next. Soon we'll have our 29th state of the season. Smiley
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #301 on: May 22, 2014, 04:02:11 pm »
« Edited: June 18, 2014, 04:17:55 pm by eric82oslo »

PPP has published a new Iowa poll today. This is PPP's 4th 2016 poll of the state and the 10th regardless of pollster. It's good news for Hillary, as she leads all opponents with between 4% and 7%. Though one can ask if it's really that great to lead Ted Cruz by only 7%. The fact remains though that Hillary is still spectacularily more popular in Florida and Ohio than she is in the first caucus state of the nation.

With this poll, Hillary increases her lead over prime challenger Huckabee (who is also the runaway favourite in Iowa's GOP primary) from +1.85% to her current +2.6% lead. The 2nd strongest GOPer in Iowa is Christie, trailing her by an average of 3.3%. 3rd is Jindal at -4.7%, while Rand Paul trails by 5%. Shared 5th are Walker and Paul Ryan, both trailing by 6.3%. Bush is -7.1% behind, Rubio -7.3%, Cruz -9.2% and finally Mike Pence is last with -11.8%.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 121.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement

(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +2.6%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on May 22, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.5% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +2.6%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 28 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 22.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #302 on: May 22, 2014, 05:01:07 pm »

Clinton 46%, Paul 42% (Clinton +4%)
Clinton 46%, Huckabee 42% (Clinton +4%)
Clinton 44%, Bush 39% (Clinton +5%)
Clinton 45%, Christie 39% (Clinton +6%)
Clinton 47%, Cruz 40% (Clinton +7%)

Tightening, but at or above the margin of error.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #303 on: May 30, 2014, 02:57:01 pm »
« Edited: May 30, 2014, 09:09:32 pm by pbrower2a »

Oregon, and our first view of the West Coast (aside from Alaska, which seems to vote more like Texas than about anything else) for the 2016 Presidential election in this thread:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/05/oregon-miscellany.html

Clinton: 51%, Huckabee 39% (Clinton +12%)
Clinton: 51%, Paul 39% (Clinton +12%)
Clinton: 51%, Bush 36% (Clinton +15%)
Clinton: 52%, Cruz 37% (Clinton +15%)
Clinton: 51%, Christie: 34% (Clinton +17%)

Oregon is definitely not a swing state if Hillary Clinton is the nominee.    PPP does Pennsylvania next week. Apparently, Quinnipiac didn't poll over the weekend.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





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eric82oslo
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« Reply #304 on: May 30, 2014, 03:41:50 pm »
« Edited: June 18, 2014, 04:17:19 pm by eric82oslo »

With PPP's poll just released, we have our first numbers out from Oregon - which has thus become the 29th state added to our 2016 map. It is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee who are doing the best against Hillary in Oregon, though still trailing her by 12% each. Oregon's 7 electoral votes seem to be going Democratic once more. And what's more: Hillary, at this point in time, is leading her strongest opponents by the exact same margin as Obama beat Romney with in the state.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 122.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement

(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +2.6%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on May 22, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

NEW! Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.04% (basically toss up)

+3.34% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +2.6%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
7. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 30.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #305 on: June 05, 2014, 06:20:15 am »
« Edited: June 05, 2014, 06:25:48 am by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania:


Secretary Clinton tops Governor-next-door Christie 45 - 41 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. She leads 51 - 37 percent among women, while men go to Christie 45 - 38 percent.

    51 - 37 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. Women back Clinton 56 - 30 percent while men are divided 45 - 45 percent;
    51 - 36 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Clinton leads 56 - 32 percent among women and 46 - 41 percent among men;
    51 - 35 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, including 57 - 31 percent among women and 45 - 39 percent among men;
    50 - 38 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. Women go Democratic 55 - 31 percent, while men are divided, with 44 percent for Clinton and 45 percent for Ryan.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2048

PPP will release its results for Pennsylvania today. I doubt that there will be much of a difference.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #306 on: June 05, 2014, 01:53:04 pm »

PPP shows much the same as Quinnipiac for Pennsylvania, except that PPP doesn't have Christie as close to Hillary Clinton:

Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/pennsylvania-miscellany.html#more

When two pollsters get such similar results for the same state in the same week one has a good calibration. Obviously we have no need for a new map, as averaging changes nothing. 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #307 on: June 05, 2014, 02:40:21 pm »
« Edited: June 18, 2014, 04:16:45 pm by eric82oslo »

Two new polls out today - by PPP and Quinnipiac - and both from Pennsylvania. There have now been 8 match up polls conducted in Pennsylvania for 2016. Christie is still far and away the best liked Republican in the state, probably due to his presence as Governor in the neighbouring state. However, Christie has lost even more of his previous edge, and with today's two new polls added to the mix, now trails Hillary by -3.5% in the state, twice the previous margin of -1.75%. With this, Pennsylvania passes both New Hampshire, Iowa and Virginia on the Likely Democratic scale of 2016.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 124.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement

(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +2.6%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on May 22, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.03% (basically toss up)
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +2.6%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
7. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 5.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #308 on: June 07, 2014, 04:37:35 pm »

PPP will give us some Florida polls this week. At this stage, now that we finally have one West Coast state polled for anyone and finally have one poll involving Huckabee north of the Potomac, we can draw some conclusions:

1. Hillary Clinton has largely maintained the margins by which Barack Obama won states in 2012 (if not 2008 -- and I would have to see an unlikely poll for Indiana to say "2008") while having smaller losses in those states that Barack Obama lost.

2. Hillary Clinton seems to evoke Clinton nostalgia in Arkansas. Whether that will stick is something I refuse to predict this early. She can win without Arkansas, but she can't lose with it.  I'd like to see a poll for Tennessee, a state demographically similar to Arkansas, before I suggest putting it in the Clinton column.  

3. Jeb Bush seems to win nothing that Barack Obama won in 2012. He doesn't even win the state in which he was Governor (Florida). He puts Arizona and Georgia at risk of becoming  R losses with the possibility of a 400-EV landslide.

4. Chris Christie seems to do better than Obama did in Pennsylvania, but not well enough to win it. He makes Colorado very close (which could reflect that the questions about Presidential polling in Colorado involve an electorate for a midterm election). He gets edged out in Arizona which (a) is inconsistent with a tie in Colorado) and (b) would be more than compensation for Colorado. Hillary Clinton probably gets 360 or so electoral votes against him.

5. Paul actually wins Colorado based on 'likely voters in a midterm election'.  The state has a loud libertarian segment in the electorate which shines now. But the "likely electorate of 2014" is decidedly smaller than that of a Presidential election. But he loses Arizona, which has 3 more electoral votes. If Arizona is close in a Presidential election (the state has voted once for a Democratic nominee for President since 1948) then a Republican nominee is in deep trouble.

6. Huckabee has no support outside of the Deep and Mountain South and in states that just simply never vote for a Democratic nominee. I was chary of saying so until I saw polls for Oregon and Pennsylvania. If he loses by 15% in Pennsylvania (nearly the tipping-point state in 2012), then he projects to lose by about 12% nationwide. That would be good for a landslide characteristic of Eisenhower in the 1950s with Hillary Clinton winning roughly 56% of the popular vote and about 84% of the electoral vote.    
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #309 on: June 09, 2014, 02:59:51 pm »
« Edited: June 23, 2014, 11:12:07 am by eric82oslo »

With today's poll of Iowa, the first caucus state of the nation has already been polled 11 times this season. For the first time in a while, it is now back to Christie, who's the guy stacking up the best against Hillary. Christie is currently trailing her by -3.78% on average. Huckabee however, in his 4th Iowa poll, falls from -2.6% to -4.5%. Third best GOP candidate is Bobby Jindal at -4.7%, though he has only been polled once in Iowa, followed by Rand Paul at -6% and Scott Walker at -6.25%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 125.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement

(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.8%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 9, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.07% (basically toss up)
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +3.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 14 of 29 states (for 175 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
7. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 9.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #310 on: June 09, 2014, 04:56:06 pm »

Loras College, Iowa.

Clinton 48, Christie 39
Clinton 52, Paul 38
Clinton 49, Bush 38
Clinton 50, Ryan 39
Clinton 50, Huckabee 40

http://www.loras.edu/LorasCollege/files/34/34449663-47f1-438b-8d3d-69507e9f94f6.pdf

GOP disaster. Barack Obama won Iowa by 9% in 2008, and just look at the national results that year. A Republican nominee wins nationwide if he wins Iowa and can still win without it  (the state is about D+3), but without Iowa being close a Republican loses nationwide.

Ohio is roughly the opposite. 
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #311 on: June 10, 2014, 06:22:19 pm »

PPP are about to poll Minnesota and North Carolina. Smiley
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #312 on: June 11, 2014, 07:59:40 am »
« Edited: June 23, 2014, 11:13:15 am by eric82oslo »

With Survey USA's poll of Florida released today, the number of Florida polls has reached 9, of which 8 have included a Bush-Clinton match up. It's not exactly great news for Jeb, however he improves ever so slightly, from being down -7.4% to now trailing by -7.25%. No other Republican was tested by the polling firm unfortunately. The two most surprising cross tab numbers: Cuban Floridians actually supporting Hillary rather than Jeb, and Asian Floridians being undecided at 50/50.

UPDATE: One day later and PPP has released its own Florida match-up numbers. Republican candidates did surprisingly well in this latest poll, in particular Jeb Bush, who only trailed Hillary by a single point. The other candidates trailing with between 4-11%. That means that Hillary's lead over Bush has been further decreased to "only" 6.6%.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 127.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +6.6%
+5.7% D improvement

(Updated on June 12, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.8%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 9, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.03% (basically toss up)
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +5.7%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Florida: D +6.6%
Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +3.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 14 of 29 states (for 175 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
7. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 12.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #313 on: June 12, 2014, 05:05:17 pm »
« Edited: June 12, 2014, 05:07:35 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP, Florida. Survey USA has Hillary up by 6 against Bush, and averaging that with PPP results gets the same result as the PPP poll. I average polls made in the same week.

Clinton- 46%
Bush- 45%

Clinton- 48%
Rubio- 44%

Clinton- 48%
Paul- 42%

Clinton- 48%
Huckabee- 41%

Clinton- 46%
Christie- 38%

Clinton- 50%
Cruz- 39%

This poll found responders split slightly for Romney in how they voted in 2012. Barack Obama barely won the state. Jeb comes close, but others are behind by at least the margin of error.
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #314 on: June 16, 2014, 08:06:40 am »
« Edited: June 23, 2014, 11:13:49 am by eric82oslo »

The third Florida poll in less than a week has just been released by St. Leo University. Which means that the number of Florida polls has reached 11, out of which 10 include a Jeb-Hillary match up. And it's dramatic news for Hillary, as this is the very first Florida poll where she actually trails Jeb! Within just one week, her average lead in Florida has shrunk from an impressive +7.4% to now only leading by +5.7%. Could her unimpressive book tour rollout have something to due with it? Or is it simply independent voters rallying around Jeb due to his many moderate stances?

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 128.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement

(Updated on June 16, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.8%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 9, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D/R +0.00% - a true toss up!

+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +3.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 14 of 29 states (for 175 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
7. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 16.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #315 on: June 16, 2014, 10:00:46 am »
« Edited: June 18, 2014, 01:48:16 pm by pbrower2a »

St. Leo University, Florida

In trial heats:

Jeb Bush would defeat Hillary Clinton, 46-44 percent (2 points)

Clinton defeats former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, 47-40 percent (7 points)
Clinton defeats U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, 49-41 percent (8 points)
Clinton defeats U.S. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 50-40 percent(10 points)
Clinton defeats U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, 50-38 percent (12 points)
Clinton defeats U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, 52-36 percent (16 points)

http://polls.saintleo.edu/florida-presidential-primary-preview-hillary-clinton-jeb-bush-florida-favorites

Averaging three polls in one week involving Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush (SurveyUSA, PPP, and St. Leo University) I find that Hillary still leads by a bare but shaky margin. Others do nothing to change the observations by other pollsters.  
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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« Reply #316 on: June 18, 2014, 01:52:05 pm »

Minnesota.

Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/-minnesota-miscellany.html
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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eric82oslo
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« Reply #317 on: June 18, 2014, 04:06:36 pm »
« Edited: June 23, 2014, 11:14:32 am by eric82oslo »

PPP has polled Minnesota for only the 2nd time this season. Last time, already 1 1/2 years ago, they only tested Christie and Rubio. This time they've included 6 more GOP candidates; Pawlenty, Bush, Huckabee, Rand Paul, Cruz & Bachmann. Tim Pawlenty does by far the best by only trailing Hillary with 6%. Christie is down to 2nd best GOPer in Minnesota, now trailing by an average of 8%. 3rd best are Bush & Huckabee, both trailing by 10%. Rand Paul is 11% behind her, Rubio 13%, Cruz 16% and Bachmann 17%. All in all, Minnesota does not change at all, as Hillary is still winning the state by +6%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 129.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement

(Updated on June 16, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.8%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 9, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D/R +0.00% - a true toss up!

+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +3.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 18.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #318 on: June 18, 2014, 06:20:18 pm »

Ignoring those that I have dropped because either (1) nobody asks about them anymore or (2) polling of them is rare I find:

1. Very few "not-so-sure" states or electoral votes are polled. That is now limited to four states (IN, MO, NV, TN) that have been close in any Presidential election beginning in 2000.  NE-02 belongs in that category. Colorado and Nevada may not seem much alike to you (you would know whether you were in Colorado or Nevada, and you would never confuse Denver and Las Vegas) but they seem to vote much alike. 

2. The only state that Obama has ever won that surprises anyone is Colorado. This may be because Colorado is extensively polled based on "likely voters" models appropriate for a midterm, as there will be a Senatorial and a Gubernatorial election there in November. The electorate typical of a midterm is more R than a Presidential election, and the Presidential matchups in 2014 are thus designed for a midterm. Some matchups show Hillary Clinton doing badly in Colorado in contrast to some other States. 

But that is only one state. 

3. We have, if nothing near all states, something unlikely to yield giant surprises to the benefit of any Republican. Colorado is the biggest. Nobody sees any of the states that have gone by 5% or more to President Obama twice except Colorado as possible pickups. To accommodate the loss of Virginia the Republicans basically need something like Wisconsin and New Hampshire; to accommodate the loss of Ohio, the Republicans need something like Michigan or Pennsylvania. Such seems not to be happening.

4. We are completely missing polls for binary matchups in some states with large electoral vote totals (CA, IL, WA), but nobody can expect surprises. We have no polls for either Bush or Huckabee in New York State. But all in all we have a good skeleton. At this point I would be tempted to concede that IN, MO, and TN would vote for any Republican nominee until I see evidence otherwise. On the other side, I can't imagine any Republican nominee winning Maryland, Massachusetts, or Washington, either.         

Giving the most favorable argument for maximal results for any possible Republican nominee:

5. We have polls involving Jeb Bush in 26 states. Even if one concedes him all states in which he is tied or behind by an amount within the margin of error, he seems to lose Arkansas to Hillary Clinton and otherwise everything that Obama won twice except Florida. He would lose the Electoral college at least 309-229, and it gets worse if he actually loses one of those states within the margin of error or anything else, let alone one of the unpolled states with ten or so electoral votes that went R in 2012 (IN, MO, TN). If Arkansas ans Georgia are at risk with Bush as the nominee, then so are Missouri and Tennessee. 

6. With Christie we have 28 states polled. Hillary Clinton projects to get Obama 2012 results except for having Colorado being decided by a hair -- but picking up Arkansas and North Carolina by margins beyond the margin of error (344 EV) with a good chance of picking up Arizona (and if she gets Arizona she also picks up Colorado) The best-case scenario from the R standpoint for a Christie-Clinton matchup is 344-194. In view of the weak showings that Christie has in Alaska, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas, such a matchup has a potential to become a blowout landslide with Hillary Clinton getting 400 or more electoral votes.

7. With only 18 states polled involving Huckabee, I see him with no strength outside of the Mountain South and the Deep South. He would almost certainly win almost every state that Republicans have not lost since 2000, which means basically the Deep South, the Mountain South, and likely farm-and-ranch country, and Texas. The good news for Republicans is that unlike the other three he unambiguously wins Arkansas and along with it all of the other Clinton-but-not-Obama states. The bad news is that he unambiguously loses Arizona and North Carolina. I'm not sure that he wins Georgia, Indiana, or Missouri, either.

There are huge blanks in the map involving him, but those are largely in the northeastern quadrant of the US. It is safe to assume that, in view of his prospect of losing Pennsylvania by 10% or so and being out of reasonable contention in Virginia, that he will win nothing to the north and east of of the Potomac. The best result for him  as a Republican nominee in electoral votes would be Hillary Clinton winning 360-178 or so, which is what one gets when one trades Obama's anomalous wins of Indiana and NE-02 in 2008 for Arizona.

Huckabee is a Southern right-wing populist, which is the antithesis of most of the northeastern quadrant of the US and the West Coast. No way do I see him losing Texas, but I can easily imagine him losing Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and NE-02 in 2016y, which would give Hillary Clinton 400 or so electoral votes. I also see him as an unusually poor R choice to hold onto the Dakotas or Montana.

8. As with Christie, we have 28 states polled involving Rand Paul. Paul projects to lose everything that Romney lost and apparently pick up Colorado. But he loses Arkansas, which would be a good trade for Colorado -- if he weren't also losing Florida, Ohio, and Virginia as well.  But with him he could easily lose Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. The most positive view that I can now project for Rand Paul is Hillary Clinton 329 - Rand Paul 209.

I see Colorado very shaky for him. He probably fares well in polling in Colorado because of his father's reputation as a libertarian. Colorado has a loud libertarian streak in its Republican Party. That said, I see Rand Paul much more authoritarian than his father, and that could wreck his chance of picking up Colorado or Nevada. Think about it: the late Governor George Romney is admired in Michigan, but his son got destroyed there in the 2012 election.

10. These results are consistent with national polls that show Hillary Clinton  way ahead. They would be very different if Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee, and I have nothing to say about any other potential Democratic nominee.

Hillary Clinton is much less regionally-polarizing than Barack Obama. The President in the 20th century who got the percentage if the popular vote to Obama in 2008 was FDR in 1944, when he got 432 electoral votes (and Alaska, Hawaii, and DC, which between them hold ten electoral votes, weren't voting). Obama got only 365 electoral votes, and seven of those came from DC and Hawaii.  With an even shift of 0.53% of the popular vote to match FDR in 1944, Obama would have picked off only Missouri and gotten a comparatively-modest 276 electoral votes. 

11. The Republicans have chances if (1) Hillary Clinton is not the nominee or (2) she melts down during the campaign (health, scandal?).         
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« Reply #319 on: June 18, 2014, 09:24:04 pm »

^ Very strong analysis.

Am I correct in assuming that the reason we don't have maps of Joe Biden versus the likeliest GOP candidates is due to the scarcity of polls including Biden? Whenever there are enough polls with Biden to justify making maps with him on this thread, I would be grateful to see them.
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« Reply #320 on: June 19, 2014, 03:10:39 am »


Am I correct in assuming that the reason we don't have maps of Joe Biden versus the likeliest GOP candidates is due to the scarcity of polls including Biden? Whenever there are enough polls with Biden to justify making maps with him on this thread, I would be grateful to see them.

You are. The only ways in which Joe Biden becomes President is if President Obama dies, resigns, or is impeached and convicted.  Such sporadic polls as I have seen show him unelectable.

I have had Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, and Mario Rubio, and I dropped them once I saw that people quit taking them seriously. I was all set to have polls involving Scott Walker because he seemed a likely hero of the Right as a right-wing Governor of a liberal state, saw a couple polls, and saw nothing else.

In theory the Republicans could still get some nominee out of the smoke-filled room as a compromise between factions. Problems?

1.  Smoking is down -- way down -- from when decisions really were made in obscure, smoke-filled rooms

2. We have never seen such happen in decades, and

3. Nominees so selected have done badly in general elections

4. The Republican Party does not want a 'moral victory' in an electoral loss. 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #321 on: June 19, 2014, 11:12:32 am »
« Edited: June 23, 2014, 11:15:14 am by eric82oslo »

In North Carolina, PPP has just realeased its 9th poll this season, the 8th poll to also include a Christie-Hillary match-up. Christie is still the strongest GOPer in the Tarheel State - despite a 4% loss in this latest match-up - now trailing the Pantsuit Aficionado by -1.25%, up from -0.9%. Not far behind though we find Jeb Bush, trailing Hillary by -2.1% in the state. Huackabee trails her by -4.8%, Rand Paul by -5.1%, Ted Cruz stands at -6% and Marco Rubio at -7%. Hillary is right now improving on Obama's 2012 numbers in the state by an impressive 3.3%!

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 130.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement

(Updated on June 16, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.8%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 9, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19, 2013)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.01%

+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +3.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 19.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #322 on: June 19, 2014, 01:18:17 pm »

North Carolina, PPP:


Clinton- 45%
Bush- 44%

Clinton- 46%
Huckabee- 43%

Clinton- 46%
Paul- 43%

Clinton- 45%
Christie- 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #323 on: June 23, 2014, 06:55:56 am »
« Edited: June 23, 2014, 08:06:34 pm by pbrower2a »

Iowa, Quinnipiac.


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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2055

Hillary Clinton is slipping a little in Iowa, at least from its last poll of Iowa.  She would likely win the state more by an Obama 2012 level than by the landslide margins projected earlier.

I do not extrapolate unless some event causes one to question the overall competence or credibility of a political figure.   
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #324 on: June 23, 2014, 11:04:05 am »
« Edited: July 03, 2014, 04:03:20 am by eric82oslo »

Quinnipiac has just polled 5 GOPers against Hillary in Iowa, resulting in the 12th 2016 poll of Iowa. In total, 10 GOP candidates have been tested in Iowa. However, two of them, Bobby Jindal and Mike Pence, have just been tried out once. With this new poll, Christie's best man position in the state, against his main rival Huckabee, increases further. Christie is now trailing Hillary in Iowa by an average of -4.2%, up from -3.8% previously. Also Jindal and Huckabee are still trailing her by less than 5%. Here's the breakdown of average Iowa match-ups by GOP candidate:

Christie: -4.2%
Jindal: -4.7% (1 poll only)
Huckabee: -4.92%
Ryan: -6.03%
Walker: -6.25%
Rand Paul: -6.33%
Rubio: -7.3%
Bush: -8.09%
Cruz: -9.23%
Mike Pence: -11.8% (1 poll only)

Also, a SurveyUSA poll of Florida testing Rubio against Hillary doesn't change anything. Jeb is still the stronger GOP candidate in the state.

Finally, I've updated the New Jersey numbers to once again include the exit poll match up, which I had lost for a while. Meaning that Hillary's lead over Christie in New Jersey slips back from +10.5% to +9.6%.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 132.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement

(Updated on June 25, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.2%
+1.6% R improvement
(Updated on June 23, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19, 2013)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.01%

+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%

9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%

11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +4.2%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of June 25.
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