|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 06, 2020, 01:22:43 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12 13 ... 28 Print
Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 110536 times)
eric82oslo
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,526
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #175 on: December 11, 2013, 06:34:06 pm »
« edited: December 21, 2013, 11:07:29 pm by eric82oslo »

The very latest poll I've added is the PPP poll of Kentucky, which shifts that state from leaning Hillary by 2.5% versus Rand Paul into a leaning Republican state with Jeb Bush and Christie both beating the presumptive Democratic nominee by 4%, both being polled for the first time against Hillary in the state.

Current update as of December 22.


Adding the four latest polls on North Carolina, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania to the already extensive state-wide poll database we've been collecting this year.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 81.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on December 12)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 18)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.5%
+12.3% R improvement
(Updated on December 12)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement

(Updated on December 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.6%
+2.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 18 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. New Jersey: R +12.3%
8. Texas: D +11%
9. Colorado: R +10.1%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Iowa: R +5.4%
15. Michigan: R +5%
16. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.6%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Jersey: D +5.5%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Michigan: D +4.5%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 81 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Despite the near inmense number of bad polls for Hillary, Obama and Democrats during the past month or so, Hillary is still expected to beat the tailor-made Republican (which in 18 of 26 cases happens to be Christie) by an impressive projected 6.6% nationally.

7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.


Last updated on December 22.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #176 on: December 13, 2013, 10:53:40 am »

NC, PPP

-Just as we found a month ago Chris Christie is the only Republican who leads Hillary Clinton at this point in North Carolina, 45/42. Clinton has modest leads over Jeb Bush (46/45) and Rand Paul (48/44) and then holds a wider lead over Ted Cruz at 49/41.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/12/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #177 on: December 17, 2013, 09:40:34 am »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1989

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #178 on: December 19, 2013, 03:32:21 pm »

Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac:

Clinton 44, Christie 43
Clinton 52, Paul 40
Clinton 51, Santorum 38
Clinton 52, Bush 36
Clinton 54, Cruz 36

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1992

This is with President Obama having an approval rate of only 39% in the state.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #179 on: December 21, 2013, 07:50:27 am »
« Edited: January 01, 2014, 09:51:01 am by pbrower2a »

49-43 Paul/Clinton

46-42 Bush/Clinton

44-40 Christie/Clinton

44-41 Clinton/Cruz

December 12-15, 2013
Survey of 1,509 Kentucky voters

http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/192171096?extension=pdf&from=embed&source=embed

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




Logged
eric82oslo
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,526
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #180 on: December 21, 2013, 11:16:28 pm »
« Edited: December 21, 2013, 11:20:59 pm by eric82oslo »

It's about high time PPP and other pollsters start polling Democratic strongholds like California, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut and so on.

I've updated my poll database above, which switched Kentucky from Democratic to Republican, going from +2.5% Democratic to +4% Republican, a switch of impressive 6.5%, due to this being the very first time Bush & Christie were included in a Kentucky match-up. Despite this massive change, Hillary is still projected to win the national vote by a 6.6% lead, though that is presuming that every state has an equal importance in the outcome of the national vote, which is of course not the case; Texas will for instance matter a lot more than Alaska or Wyoming. It's thus interesting that Texas is among the states that are currently switching the most strongly towards Hillary. On the other side, New York is trending towards Christie. Florida trends towards Hillary, yet not massively like Texas. Who knows how California will go though. We can only speculate.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #181 on: January 01, 2014, 10:12:38 am »

I've been slow to do so, but I am ready to drop Paul Ryan in favor of Ted Cruz. Here's why:

1. Paul Ryan shows signs of seeking power within the House of Representatives. Such is shown in his lackluster performance in the Presidential campaign. He wanted to be one of the ten most powerful members of the House more than he wanted to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.

2. Governor Scott Walker is more likely to be the "Great Midwestern Hope" of the GOP for transforming America into a Christian and Corporate State. He may be abrasive and confrontational -- but that well fits the views of people who want America to be competitive with countries with ultra-cheap labor, who want unions made irrelevant if not outlawed, who want government to represent wealth and bureaucratic power within Corporate America instead of with 'ingrates' who don't realize that their personal poverty is necessary for 'national greatness', who prefer that education train people for servile roles and hard toil instead of offering the ability to judge propaganda, who want the potentially-profitable segments of the public sector sold cheaply to them so that they can be run by profiteering monopolists, and who see dissidents with pure plutocracy as traitors. For standing up to liberals, unions, college students, and environmentalists he is as great a hero to those who want a semi-fascist America as someone who defeated a national enemy. Hell for 90% of the people so that 1% can enjoy sybaritic excess is the norm of (in)human history. 

I would replace Paul Ryan with Scott Walker if he were available in polling.

3. We now have plenty of polls with Ted Cruz. He has a following, and if he is less than Presidential as a potential candidate, then such will show much as it did with Mario Rubio this time or Rick Perry the last time -- and if we see him losing Arizona and Missouri we could see someone replacing him in polling. Those with Ryan are now old; PPP did not ask about him in Illinois. Jeb Bush seems more promising than Rubio, who might lose his Senate seat

4. I predict that if Scott Walker is re-elected he will jump to the top of the GOP pack. Until then we get to see how relevant Ted Cruz is.     
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #182 on: January 01, 2014, 10:22:00 am »

Blank map.

Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #183 on: January 01, 2014, 10:26:28 am »
« Edited: January 01, 2014, 10:28:17 am by pbrower2a »

Going back to fill for Clinton vs. Cruz. Start with Kentucky:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/192171096?extension=pdf&from=embed&source=embed

Unambiguous underperformance by Cruz.

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #184 on: January 01, 2014, 10:35:57 am »
« Edited: January 01, 2014, 10:50:25 am by pbrower2a »

Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania.

The middle shade for Cruz in three of the five states understates the reality because Hillary Clinton has large leads with nearly 50%. She has Pennsylvania by 54-38.  

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #185 on: January 01, 2014, 10:58:33 am »

Back as far as late September -- and I am not using polls by an organization that has "Conservative" in its name or by a newsletter operated by an associate of Newt Gingrich.

FL  (Quinn) 52 - 36 percent over Cruz.

MT (PPP) Ted Cruz ......................................................... 50%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 39%

OH (Quinn) 50 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

CO (PPP)
48% Hillary Clinton - 45% Ted Cruz - 7% Not sure
WI (Marquette Law School)
Clinton 55, Cruz 33

TX (PPP)
Cruz leads Clinton only 48/45

ME (PPP)
H Clinton  57 T Cruz 30

CO (Quinn)
Clinton and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas tied at 44 - 44 percent (supplants the older PPP poll)
MS (PPP)
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

WV (PPP)
41% Hillary Clinton - 44% Ted Cruz

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #186 on: January 01, 2014, 11:05:00 am »

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 




Logged
Wolverines34
Rookie
**
Posts: 95
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #187 on: January 01, 2014, 11:37:37 pm »

wow! amazing maps guys!.

clinton seems to be whipping the floor with everyone, even christie.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #188 on: January 02, 2014, 01:15:16 am »

wow! amazing maps guys!.

clinton seems to be whipping the floor with everyone, even christie.

If Barack Obama proves all in all a failure as President -- and he still can be -- then the Democrats could lose with the new FDR against the new George W. Bush or (if such is possible) even worse. If he achieves everything that Democrats can imaginably achieve with the Presidency, then the Republicans can win by promising some variant of 'normalcy' nearly a century later.

Hillary Clinton is not 'whipping the floor with Christie'.

Remember -- the Republicans still have the money, and they can use it to convince people of things that make little sense but prove absurd only after the 2020 election.   
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,955
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #189 on: January 02, 2014, 07:03:52 am »

wow! amazing maps guys!.

clinton seems to be whipping the floor with everyone, even christie.

If Barack Obama proves all in all a failure as President -- and he still can be -- then the Democrats could lose with the new FDR against the new George W. Bush or (if such is possible) even worse.

As I've said in other threads, I think that's absolutely wrong. McCain would've won the election if it took place in mid September 2008 despite the fact that Bush had a 20% approval rating with that very same electorate. Gore and Bush were deadlocked despite Clinton's 65% approval rating. Obama's popularity will be a factor, but it is not anywhere near as big of a factor as everyone thinks. It matters much more in re-election races, not open seats.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #190 on: January 08, 2014, 03:56:18 pm »

Posted elsewhere:

Know beforehand:

GOP pollsters Tony Fabrizio and David Lee rolled out a new firm — Fabrizio, Lee & Associates — that they describe as a “successor” to Fabrizio’s former company, Fabrizio McLaughlin & Associates.

“[Lee] is certainly at the top of the next generation of GOP pollsters and I am proud to have him as my partner,” Fabrizio said in a Tuesday news release.

The name change represents somewhat of a clarification for the firm. In the 1990s, Fabrizio worked with John McLaughlin, but the partnership disbanded amicably over the 1996 presidential campaign, Lee said in an interview with CQ Roll Call. Fabrizio worked for Republican candidate Bob Dole, while McLaughlin polled for Republican rival Steve Forbes.

McLaughlin’s brother, Jim, continued to work with Fabrizio into the next decade. He left in the early 2000s, but Fabrizio continued to use the McLaughlin name out of convenience, Lee said.

“This is the next step in our relationship,” Lee added.

The McLaughlin brothers have their own polling firm, McLaughlin & Associates.

http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/
Logged
eric82oslo
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,526
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #191 on: January 15, 2014, 11:24:28 pm »
« Edited: January 16, 2014, 04:54:08 pm by eric82oslo »

With a new Harper poll coming out from Michigan yesterday, my stats will have to be updated once more. Hillary lead every one of her 4 opponents by numbers ranging from +2% till +10%, slightly worse than her previous average in the state. Her lead on Christie in the state has thus shrunk from +4.5% till +3.7% right now.

Today though, PPP released two new state polls, which both basically just underscored the already established reality. The New Hampshire poll of Hillary beating Christie by 4% is surprisingly close to the already established consensus of +4.4% in the state. Also the North Carolina poll of Christie +1% was really close to the previous average of 3%.


Current update as of January 16.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 84.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.3%
+1.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.5%
+12.3% R improvement
(Updated on December 12)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement

(Updated on January 16)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.5%
+2.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 18 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. New Jersey: R +12.3%
8. Texas: D +11%
9. Colorado: R +10.1%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Michigan: R +5.8%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.6%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Jersey: D +5.5%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 84 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Despite the near inmense number of bad polls for Hillary, Obama and Democrats during the past 2-3 month or so, Hillary is still expected to beat the tailor-made Republican (which in 18 of 26 cases happens to be Christie) by an impressive projected 6.6% nationally.

7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.


Last updated on January 16.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #192 on: January 16, 2014, 12:24:47 am »

I haven't included Harper polls commissioned by an organization named "Conservative Intelligence". For much the same reason I would not include polls commissioned by the NAACP.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #193 on: January 17, 2014, 11:15:48 am »
« Edited: January 17, 2014, 11:31:13 am by pbrower2a »

Christie is also the only one of the Republican hopefuls who leads Hillary Clinton in the state (NC), albeit by the razor thin margin of 43/42. Clinton has small leads over Jeb Bush (46/44), Rand Paul (47/43), and Ted Cruz (47/41).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/north-carolinians-strongly-back-teacher-pay-increase.html#more

NH -- Clinton vs. Christie, 43-39, J. Bush 49-38, Cruz 51-32, Paul 50-37

(Really, no change in the map. For reasons explained above I am not showing the Harper poll for "Conservative Intelligence" in Michigan.  

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan





Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #194 on: January 17, 2014, 11:23:48 am »
« Edited: January 17, 2014, 11:32:16 am by pbrower2a »

Hillary Clinton, 47-41 over Cruz in North Carolina, 51-32 over Cruz, NH (PPP)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Logged
MATTROSE94
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,572
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #195 on: January 18, 2014, 06:44:44 pm »
« Edited: January 18, 2014, 06:54:03 pm by MATTROSE94 »

Hillary Clinton, 47-41 over Cruz in North Carolina, 51-32 over Cruz, NH (PPP)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




I'm surprised that Ted Cruz is polling that poorly in his home state of Texas. I was expecting him to be polling at 60%, even against Hillary Clinton.
Logged
eric82oslo
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,526
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #196 on: January 18, 2014, 06:57:57 pm »

Hillary Clinton, 47-41 over Cruz in North Carolina, 51-32 over Cruz, NH (PPP)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




I'm surprised that Ted Cruz is polling that poorly in his home state of Texas. I was expecting him to be polling at 60%, even against Hillary Clinton.

Texas is changing my friend, and it's changing fast! Tongue
Logged
New_Conservative
BrandenCordeiro
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,141
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #197 on: January 19, 2014, 12:49:41 am »

Are you guys taking into account that PPP does have a left-leaning bias?
Logged
Flake
JacobTiver
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,698
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #198 on: January 19, 2014, 12:59:26 am »

Are you guys taking into account that PPP does have a left-leaning bias?

Actually it was the most accurate pollster in 2012, so I don't think there's much bias.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,393
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #199 on: January 19, 2014, 01:45:15 am »

Are you guys taking into account that PPP does have a left-leaning bias?

Actually it was the most accurate pollster in 2012, so I don't think there's much bias.

By what measure was it the most accurate pollster?


Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12 13 ... 28 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines