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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 110501 times)
eric82oslo
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« Reply #75 on: July 19, 2013, 12:14:15 pm »
« edited: August 12, 2013, 07:33:13 am by eric82oslo »

Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 22 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +3%
+8% R improvement

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement


Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement

(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: Tie
+23% D improvement

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: Tie
+17% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: Tie
+14% D improvement

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+0.8% R improvement

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9%
+9% R improvement

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement


Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: Tie
+3% R improvement

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


Texas: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.5%
+12% D improvement

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated with latest poll)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.5%
+0.5% R improvement

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated July 24)


Average all 22 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +2.1%
+5.6% D improvement



Looks like even in the best of cases, if the Grumpy Old Party could tailormake a specific candidate for each state, they still would do quite a lot worse nationally than they did against Obama in 2012. Possibly even worse than they did in the 2008 landslide.

Hillary seems to be gaining the most traction in Rand Paul's home state of Kentucky as well as in Arkansas, while struggling the most in Chris Christie's home state of New Jersey. Overall, Hillary is doing really well in red states - including Texas, the Appalachians and the Deep South - while struggling the most against governor Christie in typically blue states, including Colorado and the Great Lakes district.


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 188 EVs
Best/Tailormade Republican: 59 EVs
Toss-up: 37 EVs
No polling: 254 EVs (almost half)

Which means that Hillary has captured 66.2% of all EVs awarded thus far, against lackluster 20.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far, against no less than 9 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Ohio being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:



Looking good all across the south and west except in Colorado. Smiley


Updated with latest PPP poll of Virginia. Iowa polls updated on July 22. Wyoming poll, national averages and state map updated on July 24. Also updated with latest Alaska poll on August 4. Georgia updated with new poll August 8. Updated with the frist poll from Arkansas.
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #76 on: July 19, 2013, 02:45:27 pm »

The early polling for this next election is so weird.
-We've got Hillary winning or tying most of the time in most red states that have been polled, even ones which haven't voted Democratic for decades, in some cases since Carter or even Johnson, and which Obama lost by 15-20 points.
-We see Hillary doing slightly worse than Obama in blue states, at least in the upper midwest.
-And then we have the bizarre phenomenon of Republicans being tied or in striking distance in Colorado and Ohio.

At this rate, half the country's going to be battleground states! It probably won't hold, but if that happens, it might be entertaining enough to make up for the watching-paint-dry-like Democratic primaries.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #77 on: July 23, 2013, 07:57:57 am »
« Edited: September 12, 2013, 04:05:32 pm by pbrower2a »

Iowa, Quinnipiac:

Clinton, Christie split 41-41

Clinton vs. Scott Walker (Republican Governor of neighboring Wisconsin) 46-39...probably a good proxy for Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1926




Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #78 on: July 23, 2013, 08:42:45 am »

hello pbrower!

I sent you a private message, please read it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #79 on: July 23, 2013, 06:54:27 pm »


hello pbrower!

I sent you a private message, please read it.

By all means! Probably a different thread, because too many maps in one post get confusing.

You'd need to do much archive work to do so -- and I don't consider Joe Biden a credible candidate for President. He has had plenty of chances to get the nomination and has never gotten them. The only way in which he becomes a credible candidate for President is if the Unthinkable happens to the President.


I understand that one of the reasons for nominating him for VP was that he was at the bottom in assets in possession among US Senators. He lacks the money and income sources for staging a campaign.
 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #80 on: July 24, 2013, 07:32:01 pm »

Here are the averages for the 9 national polls which have been held since December 2012:

Hillary vs Chris Christie (7 polls): Hillary +5%
Hillary vs Jeb Bush (4 polls): Hillary +9.5%
Hillary vs Rand Paul (6 polls): Hillary +9.8%
Hillary vs Marco Rubio (6 polls): Hillary +10.8%
Hillary vs Paul Ryan (5 polls): Hillary +11.6%
Hillary vs Rick Perry (1 poll): Hillary +16%
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #81 on: July 25, 2013, 03:46:54 am »

New Wyoming polls from PPP.

Christie + 28 over Hillary (56-28)
Bush + 27 over Hillary (58-31)
Ryan + 27 over Hillary (59-32)
Paul + 26 over Hillary (58-32)
Rubio + 24 over Hillary (56-32)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WY_724.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #82 on: July 25, 2013, 03:53:37 am »
« Edited: September 12, 2013, 04:07:00 pm by pbrower2a »


Wyoming, PPP

Five matchups between Hillary Clinton and Republicans, and they are all roughly 32-57.   I am showing them at 60% saturation because such is closer to reality than the 52-46 split that might look somewhat close.



Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #83 on: July 25, 2013, 04:13:55 am »

Clinton 112
Christie 62
Tie 24
No polls 340


Clinton 111
Paul 3
Tie 8
No polls 416


Clinton 210
Rubio 21
Tie 0
No polls 307


Clinton 105
Ryan 12
Tie 8
No polls 413

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eric82oslo
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« Reply #84 on: July 25, 2013, 11:02:15 am »

^^ Christie winning in Texas makes all the difference. Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #85 on: July 26, 2013, 12:24:47 pm »

^^ Christie winning in Texas makes all the difference. Tongue

Texas has essentially a single-party system for statewide politics. The Democratic Party is basically crushed in statewide politics and is basically irrelevant. The giant cities are a different matter in local politics. 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #86 on: July 26, 2013, 12:31:54 pm »

^^ Christie winning in Texas makes all the difference. Tongue

Texas has essentially a single-party system for statewide politics. The Democratic Party is basically crushed in statewide politics and is basically irrelevant. The giant cities are a different matter in local politics. 

If you look at the polls, that doesn't seem to be the case for 2016 though. Chris Christie is the only one to beat Hillary in Texas at this moment, and even him just barely. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if the polling firms only interviewed 18+ individuals. Which would mean that they would miss out on all the potential 15-18 year old future voters. Plus a few of those they interviewed will not be alive 3 years from now. If only 59% of Texas voters were white in 2012 with an extremely low Hispanic turnout, imagine how the Texas electorate will look like in 2016 with a record level of Hispanic turnout due to highly energized latinos in the state.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #87 on: July 27, 2013, 07:32:30 pm »

Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 21 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement

Rubio has the best NC polling? Color me surprised.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #88 on: July 27, 2013, 10:31:23 pm »

Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 21 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement

Rubio has the best NC polling? Color me surprised.

Yeah, although only two candidates have been tried out against Hillary in your state, Rubio and Rand Paul. I'm sure Chris Christie would do better in NC as well, don't you think?

Here's the source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#North_Carolina
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #89 on: July 27, 2013, 11:31:44 pm »

Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 21 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement

Rubio has the best NC polling? Color me surprised.

Yeah, although only two candidates have been tried out against Hillary in your state, Rubio and Rand Paul. I'm sure Chris Christie would do better in NC as well, don't you think?

Here's the source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#North_Carolina

I think NC would be just as receptive to Christie as it was to Romney, if not more. Even so, I do think Hillary could beat Christie here (in other words, she would do better than Obama in 2012, perhaps somewhere around Obama in 2008). I'm very interested to see the polling when it's released.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #90 on: August 04, 2013, 08:36:41 am »
« Edited: August 06, 2013, 12:58:22 pm by pbrower2a »



Alaska, PPP. Hillary Clinton would beat Sarah Palin (not shown), but lose by margins less than 8% against everyone else.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_802.pdf


Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #91 on: August 08, 2013, 05:21:17 pm »

-PPP's newest Georgia poll finds that Hillary Clinton would have a decent shot at winning the state if there was an election today. She leads Rand Paul, who's led our most recent national GOP polling, 48/43. She also has a 47/44 advantage on Paul Ryan, a 47/43 one on Newt Gingrich, and a 51/38 one over Sarah Palin. She ties Jeb Bush at 45, and the only Republican with an advantage over her is Chris Christie at 44/42. She could make Georgia a swing state in 2016.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/georgia-miscellany.html

.....

Georgia has been about R+7 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012; if it is at all close for the Republican then the Democrat is going to win 375 or so electoral votes and about 54% of the popular vote. A Democrat who wins Georgia is probably winning 56% of the popular vote and at least 400 electoral votes.

I notice that PPP isn't paying attention to Rubio anymore, but it is paying attention to Jeb Bush.

Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #92 on: August 09, 2013, 01:47:33 am »

Taking all the state polls on Christie vs. Clinton so far (most recent poll from states with more than one poll), we have:

AK: Christie +8
CO: Christie +3
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MT: Christie +5
NH: Clinton +5
NJ: Clinton +11
NY: Clinton +27
OH: tie
TX: Christie +9
VA: Clinton +5
WI: Clinton +7
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
CO: R+8
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MT: D+9
NH: R+1
NJ: R+7
NY: R+1
OH: R+3
TX: D+7
VA: D+1
WI: no change
WY: D+13



So yeah, the Democratic states swing Republican, and the Republican states swing Democratic.  Thus creating a map with many more states that are close.  2012 actually had remarkably few states that were close, given that the election itself was fairly close.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #93 on: August 11, 2013, 08:30:30 am »
« Edited: August 11, 2013, 08:47:36 am by pbrower2a »

Apparently the 'right' Democrat can win in Arkansas. Its incumbent Democratic Senator has a slight edge in a bid for re-election in 2014.  

It certainly was not Barack Obama:

Quote
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although that is better than the voting result of 2012 (61-37 Romney over Obama).

Quote
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In 2008 Hillary Clinton projected to defeat John McCain, so it may not be Arkansas that has changed politically since 2008. Barack Obama is a horrible match for Arkansas, and if he is no longer relevant to Arkansas in 2016 then Hillary Clinton could win.

Of course this pollster is new to me, so expect either confirmation or repudiation by someone else. Only two potential matchups are shown.

http://freebeacon.com/tom-cotton-in-dead-heat-with-mark-pryor-for-arkansas-senate/
Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.


[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #94 on: August 11, 2013, 08:48:38 am »
« Edited: August 11, 2013, 09:52:46 pm by pbrower2a »


Apparently the 'right' Democrat can win in Arkansas. Its incumbent Democratic Senator has a slight edge in a bid for re-election in 2014.  

It certainly was not Barack Obama:

Quote
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although that is better than the voting result of 2012 (61-37 Romney over Obama -- which is about what Reagan did to Mondale in 1984).

Quote
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In 2008 Hillary Clinton projected to defeat John McCain, so it may not be Arkansas that has changed politically since 2008. Barack Obama is a horrible match for Arkansas, and if he is no longer relevant to Arkansas in 2016 then Hillary Clinton could win.

Of course this pollster is new to me, so expect either confirmation or repudiation by someone else. Only two potential matchups are shown.

http://freebeacon.com/tom-cotton-in-dead-heat-with-mark-pryor-for-arkansas-senate/
Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.


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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #95 on: August 21, 2013, 02:11:04 am »


Apparently the 'right' Democrat can win in Arkansas. Its incumbent Democratic Senator has a slight edge in a bid for re-election in 2014.  

It certainly was not Barack Obama:

Quote
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although that is better than the voting result of 2012 (61-37 Romney over Obama -- which is about what Reagan did to Mondale in 1984).

Quote
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In 2008 Hillary Clinton projected to defeat John McCain, so it may not be Arkansas that has changed politically since 2008. Barack Obama is a horrible match for Arkansas, and if he is no longer relevant to Arkansas in 2016 then Hillary Clinton could win.

Of course this pollster is new to me, so expect either confirmation or repudiation by someone else. Only two potential matchups are shown.

http://freebeacon.com/tom-cotton-in-dead-heat-with-mark-pryor-for-arkansas-senate/
Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.




This is just laughable, it really is. Clinton winning Texas? Louisiana? Georgia? Arkansas? Kentucky? If this is anywhere near accurate where in for a seismic shift in election politics.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #96 on: August 21, 2013, 03:19:00 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2013, 03:21:17 pm by pbrower2a »


Apparently the 'right' Democrat can win in Arkansas. Its incumbent Democratic Senator has a slight edge in a bid for re-election in 2014.  

It certainly was not Barack Obama:

Quote
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although that is better than the voting result of 2012 (61-37 Romney over Obama -- which is about what Reagan did to Mondale in 1984).

Quote
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In 2008 Hillary Clinton projected to defeat John McCain, so it may not be Arkansas that has changed politically since 2008. Barack Obama is a horrible match for Arkansas, and if he is no longer relevant to Arkansas in 2016 then Hillary Clinton could win.

Of course this pollster is new to me, so expect either confirmation or repudiation by someone else. Only two potential matchups are shown.

(maps excised)





This is just laughable, it really is. Clinton winning Texas? Louisiana? Georgia? Arkansas? Kentucky? If this is anywhere near accurate where in for a seismic shift in election politics.

Seismic shift? It could be that Hillary Clinton is winning back the Clinton-but-not-Obama voters while keeping the Obama voters (which include some Obama-but-not-Clinton voters).

It could also be that the Republicans have some dreadful prospects seeming to lead have the lead for the Presidential nomination. If the Republicans have the right-wing version of George McGovern or Walter Mondale, then they can lose badly in 2016.

It could also be that many Americans remain uncomfortable with the concept of a black man as President of the United States.

It's also possible that people in the Mountain and Deep South will begin to recognize Hillary Clinton as a  d@mnyankee city-slicker who either never had (like Dukakis, Kerry, or Obama) any Southern roots or lost touch with them as did Al Gore.  But at that I am discussing things that have yet to happen.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #97 on: August 21, 2013, 03:28:14 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2013, 03:29:50 pm by pbrower2a »

August 16-19, 2013
Survey of 721 Louisiana voters

Louisiana Survey Results (PPP)

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?

44% Hillary Clinton

44% Jeb Bush

12% Not sure

Q5
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?

42% Hillary Clinton

41% Chris Christie

18% Not sure

Q6
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?

44% Hillary Clinton

45% Rand Paul

11% Not sure

Q7
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?

44% Hillary Clinton

46% Paul Ryan

11% Not sure
.........................................................
Clinton vs. Christie

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_821.pdf



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #98 on: August 21, 2013, 03:50:33 pm »

Fellow readers of this thread:

I am tempted to start a new thread on this line. I am not saying when, but before I do (with the suggestion that this thread be locked) I see some faults in this presentation.

First, pollsters seem to no longer take Marco Rubio seriously. I am tempted to drop maps involving him in favor of maps for Jeb Bush, whom pollsters are beginning to take seriously. I am satisfied that Marco Rubio has beyond all imaginable question shown that he is not Presidential material until at least 2020 -- if ever.

Second, I see a huge difference between being up 43-42 and being up 49-40, and this map coloring scheme makes no such distinction. If it can't show the difference between a six-point lead and a one-point lead with someone 'leading' with less than 50% of the vote, the map shows leads that mean practically nothing.  I'd like to show anyone with 40-49% support but less than a 4% margin (margin of error) with 30% saturation. Between 40% and 49% support, inclusively? Still 40% saturation. Between 50% and 54% support, inclusively?  Still 50% saturation. 

Third, I see few states that now seem likely to show a 70-30 preference for anyone. A 55% preference could be shown with a 70% saturation to signify that a state is likely out of reach because anyone with at least 55% support in a binary choice is up at least 10%. I could show 60% or higher support with 90% saturation because such shows a margin of at least 20%. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #99 on: August 21, 2013, 04:18:45 pm »
« Edited: August 23, 2013, 09:09:32 am by pbrower2a »

To show what the color scheme would look like:

White -- tie

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

 

This map signifies nothing except to show a color scheme.
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