|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 11, 2020, 10:24:50 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 [27] 28
Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 111198 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,820
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #650 on: August 19, 2015, 10:22:51 am »

North Carolina, PPP.

Carson: 47%
Clinton: 40%

Rubio: 45%
Clinton: 41%

Clinton: 44%
Paul: 40%

Clinton: 40%
Christie: 39%

Clinton: 42%
Bush: 42%

Fiorina: 42%
Clinton: 41%

Kasich: 41%
Clinton: 40%

Cruz: 45%
Clinton: 43%

Huckabee: 46%
Clinton: 44%

Trump: 45%
Clinton: 42%

Walker: 44%
Clinton: 41%
-----
Sanders: 36%
Rubio: 42%

Sanders: 37%
Walker: 41%

Sanders: 40%
Bush: 43%

Sanders: 40%
Trump: 43%
----
Clinton: 38%
Bush: 28%
Trump: 27%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-grows-lead-in-nc-gop-leads-most-match-ups.html


This race is becoming increasingly complicated.  "Establishment" Republican candidates seem to be fading (if they are losing leads in North Carolina they could be collapsing. Could be. But do we really know? Rand Paul looks to be in a tailspin. 

The one certainty is that should the Republicans have to face not only the Democratic nominee but also Donald Trump as an independent, Hillary Clinton wins Missouri and North Carolina... and anything less Republican-leaning.

Do the e-mails matter that much? FoX News and Sinclair Broadcasting seem to so believe. We need remember that many people still have never used an e-mail, think that a server is someone who delivers their overpriced hamburger in a diner, and have no idea what the talking heads are discussing. This can exculpate Hillary Clinton -- or it can implode her campaign efforts.

Reality has suddenly become so complicated that this set of maps may be unsuited to the discussion. I never took Donald Trump, Ben Carson, or Carly Fiorina seriously. But whom do I drop? Bush? Huckabee? Paul?

Any Republican nominee who barely wins, let alone loses, North Carolina, cannot win nationwide.

Someone may need to close this thread.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,820
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #651 on: August 20, 2015, 02:39:57 pm »

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

No real change in Wisconsin.  Wisconsin is within the Democratic firewall.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,357
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #652 on: August 20, 2015, 02:45:46 pm »


"No, because ... I didn't see them."

or

"No, because ... Marco Rubio would beat Hillary US-wide and win the Presidency if the election would be held today. That CANNOT happen. The polls are FAKE !"
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,357
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #653 on: August 20, 2015, 02:51:35 pm »

pbrower, for fu**s sake, include ALL polls and not just the ones in which Hillary is ahead or I'll close that thread !
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,820
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #654 on: August 20, 2015, 02:54:27 pm »

I just haven't gotten to them yet.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,878
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #655 on: August 20, 2015, 03:23:08 pm »

Maybe Branson should put *excludes some polls* or something in the topic title.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,820
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #656 on: August 20, 2015, 03:51:17 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2015, 08:06:50 am by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, FL, OH, PA:

(FL) Bush tops Clinton 49 - 38 percent and Rubio leads 51 - 39 percent while Trump gets 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent.

(OH) Clinton gets 41 percent to 39 percent for Bush. Rubio has 42 percent to Clinton's 40 percent while Clinton tops Trump 43 - 38 percent.

(PA) Bush gets 43 percent to 40 percent for Clinton. Rubio tops Clinton 47 - 40 percent while Clinton beats Trump 45 - 40 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271

...What does Quinnipiac mean by "voters"? Those who voted in 2014?

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,820
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #657 on: August 20, 2015, 03:53:10 pm »

The Daily Appalachian/Mark Halperin University poll:

West Virginia

Clinton: 84%
Bush: 9%
Undecided: 7%

Clinton: 80%
Rubio: 17%
Undecided: 3%

Kentucky

Clinton: 75%
Bush: 14%
Undecided: 11%

Clinton: 70%
Rubio: 25%
Undecided: 5%

Tennessee

Clinton: 64%
Bush: 22%
Undecided: 14%

Clinton: 60%
Rubio: 20%
Undecided: 20%

Getting ugly for Republicans. They can't win without WV, KY and TN... Hillary Clinton is doing much better with White Southern women here. Obama got slaughtered McGovern-style in those states. If Clinton is winning key Republican strongholds, there is NO PATH TO VICTORY for the GOP.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Save this one for April Fool's Day.

I might come up with some polls from "Loof-Lirpa" Polling Institute that day.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,878
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #658 on: August 20, 2015, 05:25:47 pm »

Okay, guys. If pbrower hasn't learned his lesson by now, he's not going to.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,820
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #659 on: August 21, 2015, 08:07:47 am »

FL should be blue on the Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio map.

Correction made.
Logged
JonathanSwift
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #660 on: August 21, 2015, 11:28:34 am »

I don't know, guys. Hillary may be dominating in the Solid South and in the Mormon Corridor, but did you hear that the highly respected Halperin-Morris Institute just released a poll showing Jeb Bush trouncing Clinton in five key states won by Barack Obama?

California
Bush: 58%
Clinton: 37%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Colorado
Bush: 96%
Clinton: 1%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Iowa
Bush: 64%
Clinton: 32%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Michigan
Bush: 55%
Clinton: 40%
Other/Undecided: 5%

New Jersey
Bush: 54%
Clinton: 43%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,878
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #661 on: August 21, 2015, 12:54:09 pm »

Hillary has fallen under 270 EV's on the official Atlas polling map!
Logged
MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 39,675
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #662 on: August 21, 2015, 01:04:40 pm »

Nate Silver says 272, is CLINTON's best route, and it is still is. It is gonna be a close election.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
LibertarianRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,761
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #663 on: August 21, 2015, 01:10:28 pm »

What is this? I don't even.... my brain hurts....
Logged
Senator Cris
Cris
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,553
Italy


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #664 on: August 21, 2015, 02:12:52 pm »

If you want to do all of these jokes, please do that in another thread.
Logged
JonathanSwift
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #665 on: August 21, 2015, 02:17:46 pm »

Guys, The Young Turks did a nationwide, 50 state poll of this election, with Sanders in green as the third party candidate.



I think these guys over-sampled Republicans in Vermont, Sanders i probably ahead.

I also "unskewed" the polls and it looks like Michigan is LEAN Clinton. Just LEAN, the college campuses will turn out for Sanders and make it close.

Junk poll! There is no possible scenario under which Clinton wins Colorado.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,878
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #666 on: August 24, 2015, 02:39:20 pm »

Back on topic, pbrower is also refusing to include the Mitchell poll of Michigan.

This is really getting annoying.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,878
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #667 on: August 24, 2015, 03:00:19 pm »

So, have the Utah polls been released?

Yes:

Hillary: 54%
Kasich: 29%

Hillary: 54%
Carson: 27%

Hillary: 66%
Bush: 20%

Hillary: 67%
Rubio: 20%

Hillary: 71%
Walker: 18%

Hillary: 80%
Trump: 13%
Logged
JonathanSwift
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #668 on: August 24, 2015, 03:03:20 pm »

So, have the Utah polls been released?

Yes:

Hillary: 54%
Kasich: 29%

Hillary: 54%
Carson: 27%

Hillary: 66%
Bush: 20%

Hillary: 67%
Rubio: 20%

Hillary: 71%
Walker: 18%

Hillary: 80%
Trump: 13%

RIP GOP
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,816
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #669 on: August 24, 2015, 03:10:41 pm »
« Edited: August 24, 2015, 03:14:08 pm by TNvolunteer »

MS/VT/NM/FL-Gravis:

Mississippi
Clinton: 85% (Hillary leads 100-0 among women)
Bush: 3%
Other/Undecided: 12%

Vermont
Bush: 26%
Clinton: 12%
Sanders (WRITE-IN): 62%

New Mexico
Bush: 62%
Clinton: 32%
Other/Undecided: 6%

Florida
Bush: 44%
Clinton: 46%
Other/Undecided: 10%

The FL crosstabs are interesting:

White women: 75/16 Clinton
White men: 66/28  Bush
Hispanics: 94/5 Bush
NY transplants: 74/20 Clinton
Moderate suburbanites: 60/35 Clinton
Dixiecrats: 80/12 Clinton
Seniors: 46/44 Clinton
Obama voters: 46/42 Bush
Romney voters: 48/40 Clinton

Hmm, there is no Republican path to the presidency that doesn't include Florida and Mississippi. Getting ugly for the GOP. A 2016 electorate basically ensures a Clinton win.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



---
Someone needs to poll SC it seems. There is no way Bush is ahead in the state.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,878
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #670 on: August 24, 2015, 03:37:35 pm »

Bush leading in Illinois and New York. A major realignment election is coming:

Illinois:

Bush: 51%
Clinton: 42%

New York:

Bush: 49%
Clinton: 42%



306-229 Bush Victory
Logged
JonathanSwift
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #671 on: August 24, 2015, 03:54:00 pm »

New Ozark Herald poll coming in; Hillary dominating.

Arkansas
Bush: 0%
Clinton: 100%

Missouri
Bush: 9%
Clinton: 87%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Logged
JonathanSwift
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #672 on: August 24, 2015, 04:17:17 pm »

LOL, I like how y'all are trying to hide the fact that Hillary leads in Texas.

Oh, I must have overlooked that one. Would you mind posting it?
Logged
JonathanSwift
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,122
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #673 on: August 24, 2015, 09:50:40 pm »
« Edited: August 24, 2015, 09:56:31 pm by عبدالله الحظرد »

Quite interesting to see Cruz underperforming Rubio and Lincoln in his own home state. Anyway, Dixie Outfitters just released their long-awaited comprehensive Georgia poll.

Bush: 2%
Clinton: 94%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Carson: 7%
Clinton: 90%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Christie: 1%
Clinton: 97%
Other/Undecided: 2%

Clinton: 89%
Cruz: 8%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Clinton: 91%
Fiorina: 3%
Other/Undecided: 6%

Clinton: 90%
Gilmore: 2%
Other/Undecided: 8%

Clinton: 93%
Graham: 2%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Clinton: 78%
Huckabee: 21%
Other/Undecided: 1%

Clinton: 93%
Jindal: 3%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Clinton: 92%
Kasich: 4%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Clinton: 99%
Pataki: 0%
Other/Undecided: 1%

Clinton: 98%
Paul: 1%
Other/Undecided: 1%

Clinton: 92%
Perry: 5%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Clinton: 88%
Rubio: 8%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Clinton: 89%
Santorum: 5%
Other/Undecided: 6%

Clinton: 83%
Trump: 10%
Other/Undecided: 7%

Clinton: 94%
Walker: 3%
Other/Undecided: 3%

It looks like Hilldawg is inevitable even here Cry

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,820
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #674 on: August 25, 2015, 05:33:25 am »

Mitchell and Epic/MRA polls have a tradition of being extremely R-favoring. See also Susquehanna polling of Pennsylvania. Pollsters who do one state and look like outliers are suspect.

We now see a sorting-out of Republican candidates even when it is comparatively cheap to stay in nominal contention. For now, "Establishment" Republicans like Bush, Christie, and Walker seem on the fade.

...I am surprised that people see less problem with my slowness to add Donald Trump to the maps. Who am I to drop? One of the biggest fund-raisers for Scott Walker has apparently talked of defecting to Trump.   

   
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 [27] 28  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.502 seconds with 14 queries.