2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

Should we abandon all depictions of how Rubio would do in favor of Jeb Bush?

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton seems to offer the prospect of winning in part on nostalgia for Bill Clinton while keeping Obama support intact. We have yet to see patters for New England (35 EV) and California (55 EV), and once PPP releases binary matchups between Hillary Clinton and prospective R pols, we will have some questions answered. Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri (which together contain 32 electoral votes)  will be interesting if and when polled.

A Hillary Clinton win now looks like a huge Democratic win with a huge reduction in regional polarization of the electorate.

[pbrower2a]

Merging in Jeb Bush; removing Marco Rubio

I anticipate binary matchups from PPP in Maine.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Clinton vs. Christie

Clinton vs. Paul

Clinton vs. Ryan

White indicates a tie.

[pbrower2a]

Purple poll, Virginia.

Clinton 42, Christie 40
Clinton 48, Paul 41

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/September2013VAPoll_V5.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PurplePoll+VA+September&utm_content=PurplePoll+VA+September+CID_9ce890956460af89c13b0c312ffbee86&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Click%20here%20to%20see%20the%20full%20poll%20including%20the%20Purple%20analysis%20and%20crosstabs



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Clinton vs. Christie

Clinton vs. Paul

Clinton vs. Ryan

White indicates a tie.

[pbrower2a]

The fact that Hillary only needs the West coast in most of these maps to get over 270 is telling.

That is how things looked for Democrats in 2008 on Election night. In 2012 President Obama was ahead in four states that could decide the election and was close in another such state (North Carolina) as the networks called the West Coast states. The count made Ohio unwinnable for Romney just after 11PM eastern time.

 

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul (new style)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Old way:

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

The new way, I believe, shows the difference between an overwhelming lead (let us say between  57-42), a strong one (52-47), a significant one short of 50% (49-42),  an insignificant one (48-45 or 43-42).

The new one involving a narrow Clinton lead over Christie in  Virginia:

 

   

[pbrower2a]

Margin-sensitive polling maps


The new way, I believe, shows the difference between an overwhelming lead (let us say between  57-42), a strong one (52-47), a significant one short of 50% (49-42),  an insignificant one (48-45 or 43-42).



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

I am going with the margin-sensitive polling map, and I may do no maintenance on the 'classic' maps.  As I say, there's a huge difference between being up 57-41 and being up 51-48 that does not show with the 50% red saturation that fails to distinguish 50% and 59%.  At or above 50%, the nominee cannot win by picking up the undecided vote alone; the lagger must pick up support from those then likely to vote for the leader. Even at 49% support the leader can lose by losing all of the undecided  to the lagger even if such seems unlikely. (In my experience, the undecided tend to drift ineffectively and inadequately toward the eventual loser except during late-season collapses).

Having a lead of 3% and less than 50% is meaningless in predicting how that state is going, although patterns may show. For example, if Hillary Clinton is down by 6% to Chris Christie in Indiana (I chose Indiana as an example because I expect no Indiana polls for a very long time), then Christie is in trouble. After all, Democrats usually win the Presidency when Indiana is down 10% or less because Indiana is usually about R+12. Besides, if the Democratic nominee is down by that little in Indiana, he is probably ahead in a state like Florida, Ohio, or Virginia that is more D than Indiana that the Republicans cannot afford to lose.

Example: Carter lost the state by 7.6% in 1976 and barely got elected (2% in the popular vote). He lost it by 18.3% in 1980 and lost nationwide in the biggest blowout win for a challenger since FDR defeated Hoover in 1932.         

[pbrower2a]

Margin-sensitive polling maps

PPP, New Hampshire -- only four electoral votes, but it could have won the 2000 election for Al Gore by itself.

When it comes to the general election Hillary Clinton leads all the Republicans in head to heads. There's two pretty clear tiers of competitiveness: Chris Christie and everyone else. Christie comes within 4 points of Clinton, trailing 43/39. Everyone else we tested trails her by somewhere in the 8-12 point range: 50/42 against Ayotte, 49/40 against Bush, 50/41 against Ryan, 51/41 against Paul, and 50/38 against Cruz. - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/clinton-leads-dems-paul-and-christie-tops-among-republicans-in-nh.html#more


This way, I believe, shows the difference between an overwhelming lead (let us say between  57-42), a strong one (52-47), a significant one short of 50% (49-42),  an insignificant one (48-45 or 43-42).



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

As you can see (and the map shows it) Christie would have a significant chance to win New Hampshire, Jeb Bush practically none... and neither Paul nor Ryan has a chance in New Hampshire.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Wisconsin

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/ryan-fares-stronger-than-walker-for-2016-in-wisconsin.html#more

Comment: Wisconsin may be drifting right. Ryan, without a Favorite Son advantage would lose Wisconsin... but he would lose enough genuine swing states to make Wisconsin irrelevant.  

But not a sampling based upon the 2012 vote for President:

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The current poll is of likely voters in midterm elections, obviously a more pressing concern in Wisconsin, as a Governorship and an open Senate seat will then be decided. In 2016 you can probably add four points to these polls for Clinton in the general election and take one away from each Republican as a potential nominee. 

.....

This way, I believe, shows the difference between an overwhelming lead (let us say  57-42), a strong one (52-47), a significant one short of 50% (49-42),  an insignificant one (48-45 or 43-42).


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Do you remember when West Virginia went for Democratic nominees for President except during Republican landslides like 1972 and 1984? Me too. It's not going to bounce back enough for Hillary Clinton.  

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_WV_925.pdf

I'm not showing Ted Cruz.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey Survey of 1000 Likely Voters
Conducted September 19, 2013 By Pulse Opinion Research

In thinking about the 2016 presidential election, suppose you had a choice between Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Chris Christie or Democrat Hillary Clinton?

43% Chris Christie
48% Hillary Clinton
5% Some other candidate
4% Not sure

http://chpp.kean.edu/poll/new-jersey-survey-1000-likely-voters-0

Nothing shown for binary matchups.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead

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Let's make it even simpler. For states for which no polls have been taken yet nobody has any reasonable cause to believe would go other than as they usually do, color them green if they are practically certain to go for any Republican and orange if they are nearly-certain D wins.  I am going to be on the cautious side with Nevada and New Mexico because if Colorado is leaning R for now then those two states are iffy. But if Georgia is iffy, then so are Arizona,  Indiana, and Missouri.  Basically Hillary Clinton is not going to win Alabama, Oklahoma, or Utah and she is not going to lose California, Maryland, or Massachusetts.  I am going to use  pale shades of green and orange because dark orange shades are ugly.

I can't believe that either Arkansas or Kentucky will go for Hillary Clinton -- but if they do we are going to see the dullest Presidential election since the 1980s. As it is I see Hillary with 343 electoral votes with an upside of up to 44 more  based on Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, and  New Mexico.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans surely wish that Wisconsin has become a showcase for the repudiation of liberalism in a state that hasn't voted for a Republican nominee for President since the Reagan blowouts through the glorious achievements of Favorite Sons Governor Scott Walker and Paul Ryan, and they would be ready to vote for just about any Republicans after the Presidential disaster that is Barack Obama.  

Clinton 51, Ryan 43
Clinton 53, Walker 41
Clinton 50, Christie 40
Clinton 55, Cruz 33

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/10/29/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-in-tight-race-with-burke-for-wisconsin-governor-in-2014/

Fantasy disabused. Nothing on Jeb Bush or Rand Paul.

At this point, Scott Walker looks as if he would give the worst Favorite Son performance in his own state since at least George McGovern in 1972. Ted Cruz looks as if he would be setting up an electoral disaster analogous to Barry Goldwater in 1964.  


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

No map, as this is a national survey. 

National Survey Results

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_US_110513.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Exit poll, NJ gubernatorial election.
 

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http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/05/21324042-exit-polls-clinton-beats-christie-in-nj-in-potential-2016-matchup


Nothing on anyone else. I would guess that anyone else who has no connection to New Jersey loses New Jersey to Hillary Clinton by a margin in the high teens or even twenties.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

PPP will be polling Maine and North Carolina this week. It may (I hope!) still offer some binary matchups in Minnesota and Texas to fill some gaps in the map from extant polls.

Arizona, Florida, Indiana (don't hold your breath!), and Missouri could be interesting.  

[pbrower2a]

Texas, PPP

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mixed-news-for-cruz-in-texas-polling-numbers.html#more


I get to fill two big gaps. The Republican nominee will need to win Texas by about 15% to have a strong chance of winning nationwide.  

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Approvals for President Obama have slipped badly in Maine, so Republicans ought to be able to stall the Hillary Clinton juggernaut.

Well, not in Maine for now. (PPP)


H Clinton 55 J Bush 32
H Clinton 47 Christie 39
H Clinton  57 T Cruz 30
H Clinton 57 R Paul 32

Nothing on Ryan.

North Carolina:

-Looking ahead to the 2016 Presidential race in North Carolina, Chris Christie is the only Republican who leads Hillary Clinton in the state at this early stage. He's up 46-43. Clinton leads Jeb Bush narrowly in a hypothetical contest (47/43) and then has wider leads over Rand Paul of 9 points (50/41) and Ted Cruz of 12 points (51/39). - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet (orange -- D sure things -- 139 electoral votes)

[pbrower2a]

Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20November%202013%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

I think this only shows that NYers want Cuomo to stick as their Governor and not run for President, when they already have Hillary for that.

If Cuomo were the DEM nominee, he would do no worse than Obama though in NY ...

Also: You need to re-color NJ, because the Exit Poll showed Clinton leading Christie there by only 48-44.

Done on the most recent map.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Colorado:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1978

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Could Hillary Clinton be the first Democratic nominee for President to win Mississippi since Jimmy Carter did in 1976?

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mississippi-cruz-has-a-slim-lead-in-the-primary-and-general.html

Highly unlikely.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

I think you should add Ted Cruz and get rid of Ryan.  Hardly anyone polling on him anymore.

I am in no rush to dump Ryan. I have suggested that PPP poll Illinois to see how both high-profile Wisconsin pols would do in Illinois. One is Paul Ryan; the other is Scott Walker.

I see Cruz doing uniformly badly, so his credibility as a candidate is unsupported. About all I can say is that he could win the Presidency if the 2016 election is ragged in much the same way as elections are rigged in Ted's father's native land.