2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[eric82oslo]

Two new polls out last week from Arkansas and Florida. The Florida poll just reaffirms what we've seen in other Florida polls, that Hillary leads all Republicans there with at least 7-8%. The Arkansas poll however changes the narrative in the state, as Mike Huckabee is included there for the fist time. Thus, Arkansas goes from lean Democratic to lean Republican. Overall, Huckabee makes the state tilt 5% more towards the Republican side.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 115.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Florida: D +6.5%
13. Alaska: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 14 of 28 states (for 173 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 4 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas & Iowa (!) - for 58 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 5.

[eric82oslo]

The new Dartmouth/Rockefeller Center poll of New Hampshire is the first ever 2016 poll of that state to include Mike Huckabee in the mix up. And boy does he do well, only trailing Hillary by 2.1%. However, one should be a bit cautious with the numbers, as except for the Jeb Bush match-up, the 3 other match-up numbers all seem a bit inflated for the Republican candidate compared to previous polls of the state. Nevertheless, this means that Huckabee has managed to steal the New Hampshire crown from Christie for now.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 116.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Florida: D +6.5%
13. Alaska: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 28 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 12.

[eric82oslo]

To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far, I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. New York - 39 EVs
5. Rhode Island - 43 EVs (still not polled)
6. Maryland - 53 EVs (still not polled)
7. Massachusetts - 64 EVs (still not polled)
8. California - 119 EVs (still not polled)
9. Delaware - 122 EVs (still not polled)
10. Connecticut - 129 EVs (still not polled)
11. Illinois - 149 EVs (still not polled)
12. Washington - 161 EVs (still not polled)
13. New Mexico - 166 EVs
14. Oregon - 173 EVs (still not polled)
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Florida - 220 EVs
18. Nevada - 226 EVs (still not polled for 2016!)
19. Minnesota - 236 EVs
20. Ohio - 254 EVs
21. Wisconsin - 264 EVs

22. Michigan - 280 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

23. Virginia - 293 EVs
24. New Hampshire - 297 EVs
25. Iowa - 303 EVs
26. Pennsylvania - 323 EVs
27. North Carolina - 338 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

28. Arizona - 349 EVs
29. Georgia - 365 EVs
30. Arkansas - 371 EVs
31. Colorado - 380 EVs
32. Kentucky - 388 EVs
33. Louisiana - 396 EVs
34. South Carolina - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Mississippi - 452 EVs
38. Kansas - 458 EVs
39. Missouri - 468 EVs (still not polled)
40. Indiana - 479 EVs (still not polled)
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. North Dakota - 493 EVs (still not polled)
45. Tennessee - 504 EVs (still not polled)
46. Nebraska - 509 EVs (still not polled)
47. Alabama - 518 EVs (still not polled)
48. Wyoming - 521 EVs
49. Idaho - 525 EVs (still not polled)
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)

Michigan would be the tipping point state even if it happened to surpass Wisconsin on this list. So Michigan will for sure be a crucial battleground state in 2016, even if it will be far from the only one. Other big states +/- 3-5% off Michigan's current average of Hillary +4.8% should be considered crucial as well, including Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

If the current poll numbers are about right, it could mean that the Democratic advantage of 2012 could reverse into a Republican advantage in the Electoral College in 2016, which could turn out to be about a -2.4% disadvantage for Hillary. Compare that to Obama's Electoral College advantage in 2012, which was about +1.5%. The reason for this is obvious; most battleground states - with the clear exceptions of Florida, Ohio and North Carolina - have either not moved much at all, or have moved in a Republican direction for now. That's a big contrast to most Republican states, which have on average moved a lot towards Hillary.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has released two more 2016 smatch-up polls today. The Alaska poll marks the 4th PPP poll of the state, while the North Carolina poll is the 8th 2016 poll in that state, all executed by PPP as well. Jeb Bush' lead in Alaska decreases slightly from +7.5% to +7%, with Rand Paul just behind him at +6%. Hillary's lead over Chris Christie in North Carolina inches slightly up from +0.3% to her current +0.9%. Bush does second best in the state among GOPers, only trailing her by 2.3%. The rest of the field (Huckabee, Rand Paul, Cruz & Rubio) trails her by more than 5%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 118.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.9%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 28 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 14.

[eric82oslo]

Today we've gotten the 5th 2016 poll of Ohio, including the 4th from Quinnipiac alone. According to the poll, Hillary is leading all 8 GOP opponents there with margins ranging between 5% and 14%. Christie is still the leader of the GOP pack, but with his deteriorating numbers, he slumps further down the road, now trailing Hillary by 6.2%, compared to his previous -5.75%. Second best Republican is Huckabee (polled in Ohio for the 1st time) who's trailing by 8%. Rand Paul, Ryan & Rubio all trail by 10% and their favourite son John Kasich by 11.5%, while Bush & Cruz do particularily badly, trailing by 12.75% & 15.3% respectively.

On May 18, I've added the latest Kentucky poll from Survey USA as well. It didn't change much, as Rand Paul was the only one matched, and he's still just 1.25% ahead of Hillary. Which means that Jeb Bush is still the leader of the GOP pack in the state, leading Hillary with 4%. Christie is also leading her by 4%, however his floor is lower than Jeb Bush's (44% against 46%). Which means that the favourite son Paul is just the 3rd most popular GOPer in the state of the 4 tried & tested (Marco Rubio does the worst).

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 120.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.9%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 28 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 18.

[eric82oslo]

PPP will poll Oregon next. Soon we'll have our 29th state of the season.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has published a new Iowa poll today. This is PPP's 4th 2016 poll of the state and the 10th regardless of pollster. It's good news for Hillary, as she leads all opponents with between 4% and 7%. Though one can ask if it's really that great to lead Ted Cruz by only 7%. The fact remains though that Hillary is still spectacularily more popular in Florida and Ohio than she is in the first caucus state of the nation.

With this poll, Hillary increases her lead over prime challenger Huckabee (who is also the runaway favourite in Iowa's GOP primary) from +1.85% to her current +2.6% lead. The 2nd strongest GOPer in Iowa is Christie, trailing her by an average of 3.3%. 3rd is Jindal at -4.7%, while Rand Paul trails by 5%. Shared 5th are Walker and Paul Ryan, both trailing by 6.3%. Bush is -7.1% behind, Rubio -7.3%, Cruz -9.2% and finally Mike Pence is last with -11.8%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 121.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +2.6%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on May 22, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.5% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +2.6%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.9%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 28 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 22.

[eric82oslo]

With PPP's poll just released, we have our first numbers out from Oregon - which has thus become the 29th state added to our 2016 map. It is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee who are doing the best against Hillary in Oregon, though still trailing her by 12% each. Oregon's 7 electoral votes seem to be going Democratic once more. And what's more: Hillary, at this point in time, is leading her strongest opponents by the exact same margin as Obama beat Romney with in the state.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 122.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +2.6%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on May 22, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

NEW! Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.04% (basically toss up)
+3.34% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +2.6%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.9%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
7. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 30.

[eric82oslo]

Two new polls out today - by PPP and Quinnipiac - and both from Pennsylvania. There have now been 8 match up polls conducted in Pennsylvania for 2016. Christie is still far and away the best liked Republican in the state, probably due to his presence as Governor in the neighbouring state. However, Christie has lost even more of his previous edge, and with today's two new polls added to the mix, now trails Hillary by -3.5% in the state, twice the previous margin of -1.75%. With this, Pennsylvania passes both New Hampshire, Iowa and Virginia on the Likely Democratic scale of 2016.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 124.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +2.6%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on May 22, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.03% (basically toss up)
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +2.6%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +0.9%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
7. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 5.

[eric82oslo]

With today's poll of Iowa, the first caucus state of the nation has already been polled 11 times this season. For the first time in a while, it is now back to Christie, who's the guy stacking up the best against Hillary. Christie is currently trailing her by -3.78% on average. Huckabee however, in his 4th Iowa poll, falls from -2.6% to -4.5%. Third best GOP candidate is Bobby Jindal at -4.7%, though he has only been polled once in Iowa, followed by Rand Paul at -6% and Scott Walker at -6.25%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 125.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.8%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 9, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.07% (basically toss up)
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +3.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +0.9%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 14 of 29 states (for 175 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
7. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 9.

[eric82oslo]

PPP are about to poll Minnesota and North Carolina.

[eric82oslo]

With Survey USA's poll of Florida released today, the number of Florida polls has reached 9, of which 8 have included a Bush-Clinton match up. It's not exactly great news for Jeb, however he improves ever so slightly, from being down -7.4% to now trailing by -7.25%. No other Republican was tested by the polling firm unfortunately. The two most surprising cross tab numbers: Cuban Floridians actually supporting Hillary rather than Jeb, and Asian Floridians being undecided at 50/50.

UPDATE: One day later and PPP has released its own Florida match-up numbers. Republican candidates did surprisingly well in this latest poll, in particular Jeb Bush, who only trailed Hillary by a single point. The other candidates trailing with between 4-11%. That means that Hillary's lead over Bush has been further decreased to "only" 6.6%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 127.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +6.6%
+5.7% D improvement
(Updated on June 12, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.8%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 9, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.03% (basically toss up)
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +5.7%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Florida: D +6.6%
Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +3.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +0.9%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 14 of 29 states (for 175 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
7. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 12.

[eric82oslo]

The third Florida poll in less than a week has just been released by St. Leo University. Which means that the number of Florida polls has reached 11, out of which 10 include a Jeb-Hillary match up. And it's dramatic news for Hillary, as this is the very first Florida poll where she actually trails Jeb! Within just one week, her average lead in Florida has shrunk from an impressive +7.4% to now only leading by +5.7%. Could her unimpressive book tour rollout have something to due with it? Or is it simply independent voters rallying around Jeb due to his many moderate stances?

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 128.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement
(Updated on June 16, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.8%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 9, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D/R +0.00% - a true toss up!
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +3.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +0.9%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 14 of 29 states (for 175 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
7. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 16.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has polled Minnesota for only the 2nd time this season. Last time, already 1 1/2 years ago, they only tested Christie and Rubio. This time they've included 6 more GOP candidates; Pawlenty, Bush, Huckabee, Rand Paul, Cruz & Bachmann. Tim Pawlenty does by far the best by only trailing Hillary with 6%. Christie is down to 2nd best GOPer in Minnesota, now trailing by an average of 8%. 3rd best are Bush & Huckabee, both trailing by 10%. Rand Paul is 11% behind her, Rubio 13%, Cruz 16% and Bachmann 17%. All in all, Minnesota does not change at all, as Hillary is still winning the state by +6%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 129.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement
(Updated on June 16, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.8%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 9, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D/R +0.00% - a true toss up!
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +3.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +0.9%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 18.

[eric82oslo]

In North Carolina, PPP has just realeased its 9th poll this season, the 8th poll to also include a Christie-Hillary match-up. Christie is still the strongest GOPer in the Tarheel State - despite a 4% loss in this latest match-up - now trailing the Pantsuit Aficionado by -1.25%, up from -0.9%. Not far behind though we find Jeb Bush, trailing Hillary by -2.1% in the state. Huackabee trails her by -4.8%, Rand Paul by -5.1%, Ted Cruz stands at -6% and Marco Rubio at -7%. Hillary is right now improving on Obama's 2012 numbers in the state by an impressive 3.3%!

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 130.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement
(Updated on June 16, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.8%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 9, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19, 2013)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.01%
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
9. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +3.8%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of June 19.

[eric82oslo]

Quinnipiac has just polled 5 GOPers against Hillary in Iowa, resulting in the 12th 2016 poll of Iowa. In total, 10 GOP candidates have been tested in Iowa. However, two of them, Bobby Jindal and Mike Pence, have just been tried out once. With this new poll, Christie's best man position in the state, against his main rival Huckabee, increases further. Christie is now trailing Hillary in Iowa by an average of -4.2%, up from -3.8% previously. Also Jindal and Huckabee are still trailing her by less than 5%. Here's the breakdown of average Iowa match-ups by GOP candidate:

Christie: -4.2%
Jindal: -4.7% (1 poll only)
Huckabee: -4.92%
Ryan: -6.03%
Walker: -6.25%
Rand Paul: -6.33%
Rubio: -7.3%
Bush: -8.09%
Cruz: -9.23%
Mike Pence: -11.8% (1 poll only)

Also, a SurveyUSA poll of Florida testing Rubio against Hillary doesn't change anything. Jeb is still the stronger GOP candidate in the state.

Finally, I've updated the New Jersey numbers to once again include the exit poll match up, which I had lost for a while. Meaning that Hillary's lead over Christie in New Jersey slips back from +10.5% to +9.6%.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 132.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement
(Updated on June 25, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.2%
+1.6% R improvement
(Updated on June 23, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19, 2013)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.01%
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Exact tie or no trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Iowa: D +4.2%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of June 25.

[eric82oslo]

Who's ahead and in how many states?

1. Hillary is leading in 15 states (Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, New Jersey, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire & Maine)
for a total of 216 EVs

2. Huckabee is leading in 3 states (Texas, Louisiana & Arkansas) for a total of 52 EVs

3. Jeb Bush is leading in 5 states (Arizona, Kentucky, Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
for a total of 33 EVs

4. Christie is leading in 4 states (Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi & Wyoming) for a total of 33 EVs

5. Ryan is leading in 1 state (Colorado) for a total of 9 EVs

6. Rubio is leading in 1 state (South Carolina) for a total of 9 EVs

7. Rand Paul is leading in 1 state (Montana) for a total of 3 EVs

[eric82oslo]

PPP is going to poll Michigan and Louisiana this weekend.
Will Huckabee still be "far" ahead of Hillary in Louisiana?
And will Christie's decent numbers start to slip a bit in Michigan?

[eric82oslo]

2014 Senate election states where we still haven't had a single poll (waiting patiently for these states finally to be polled for 2016):

*Alabama
*Delaware
*Hawaii
*Idaho
*Illinois
*Massachusetts
*Nebraska
*Oklahoma
*Rhode Island
*South Dakota
*Tennessee


States where we've already had polls, yet there are no Senate elections this year (now this is neat, thanks pollsters!):

*Arizona
*Florida
*New York
*Ohio
*Pennsylvania
*Wisconsin

States where we still don't have any polls and where there are no Senate elections this year (and where we'll probably get no 2016 polls until November/December the earliest):

*California
*Connecticut
*Indiana
*Maryland
*Missouri
*Nevada
*North Dakota
*Utah
*Vermont
*Washington

That's it.
The remaining 23 states have all already been both 2016-polled (at least once; some up to 12 times) and will have at least one Senate race to be decided this year as well.

[eric82oslo]

Try updating Michigan again for Huckabee, pbrower.
I doubt Hillary leads in pink fashion against her Arkansas arch rival.

[eric82oslo]

PPP released its 5th Michigan poll yesterday, which is also the 8th overall match up poll from the state this season, regardless of pollster. Despite a horrific dump in this one particular poll for Christie, he still continues to lead the GOP field in the state. However, Hillary's lead on him has increased by 1.3%, from +4.8% to +6.1%. Not much worse is Paul Ryan, trailing her by "just" 7%. Worst of the pack is Rubio doing, trailing her by an eye-popping 15.5%. Here's how each of the 7 tested GOP candidates are doing against Hillary on average in Michigan:

Chris Christie: -6.1%
Paul Ryan: -7%
Jeb Bush: -9.75%
Rand Paul: -10.6%
Mike Huckabee: -12%
Ted Cruz: -12.3%
Marco Rubio: -15.5%

With this latest update, Michigan should no longer be considered the the most likely 2016 tipping point state.

I've also slightly tweaked the colour intervals for the lead and trend maps, making toss-ups now include all leads up to 0.5%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 133.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement
(Updated on June 25, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.2%
+1.6% R improvement
(Updated on June 23, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19, 2013)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.2%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.05%
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%

All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +4.2%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 3.

[eric82oslo]

Updated today, June 3!

To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far, I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. New York - 39 EVs
5. Rhode Island - 43 EVs (still not polled)
6. Maryland - 53 EVs (still not polled)
7. Massachusetts - 64 EVs (still not polled)
8. California - 119 EVs (still not polled)
9. Delaware - 122 EVs (still not polled)
10. Connecticut - 129 EVs (still not polled)
11. Illinois - 149 EVs (still not polled)
12. Washington - 161 EVs (still not polled)
13. New Mexico - 166 EVs
14. Oregon - 173 EVs
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Nevada - 197 EVs (still not polled for 2016!)
18. Ohio - 215 EVs
19. Michigan - 231 EVs
20. Minnesota - 241 EVs

21. Florida - 270 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

22. Wisconsin - 280 EVs
23. Iowa - 286 EVs
24. Pennsylvania - 306 EVs
25. Virginia - 319 EVs
26. New Hampshire - 323 EVs
27. North Carolina - 338 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

28. Arizona - 349 EVs
29. Georgia - 365 EVs
30. Arkansas - 371 EVs
31. Colorado - 380 EVs
32. Kentucky - 388 EVs
33. Louisiana - 396 EVs
34. South Carolina - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Mississippi - 452 EVs
38. Kansas - 458 EVs
39. Missouri - 468 EVs (still not polled)
40. Indiana - 479 EVs (still not polled)
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. North Dakota - 493 EVs (still not polled)
45. Tennessee - 504 EVs (still not polled)
46. Nebraska - 509 EVs (still not polled)
47. Alabama - 518 EVs (still not polled)
48. Wyoming - 521 EVs
49. Idaho - 525 EVs (still not polled)
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)

So the tipping point state has changed from Michigan to Florida! Surprise surprise. In that case, it would be the first time since the 2000 election (I believe) that Florida would be back to being the single most important state in the election. With its heavy 29 electoral vote gravity, it's not all that hard to believe in such an outcome.

[eric82oslo]

Only two more states have been polled during my week-long holiday fortunately, and the Rand Paul-Hillary match up in Florida didn't change anything, as Jeb Bush still trumps Paul in the state with about 5 percentage points.

More interesting is of course the new PPP poll out from Louisiana. It's actually already the 6th 2016 poll from the state. With this poll of 6 potential GOPers, here are the current match up averages in Louisiana:

Mike Huckabee: +3%
Jeb Bush: +2.67%
Rand Paul: +1.67%
Paul Ryan: +1%
Ted Cruz: -1%
Chris Christie: -1.33%
Bobby Jindal: -1.57%
Marco Rubio: -3%

In other words, half of the GOP contenders polled in the state are looking decent on paper, while the other half are looking like misfits for the state's voters. It's a fight between Huckabee & Bush for the GOP leader role in the state. Also, this means that Hillary improves on her previous Louisiana record by a +2% bump in the former French colony, going from -5% to her current -3%. Meaning that Hillary is only experiencing a stronger Democratic swing in two other states; Kentucky & Arkansas, coincidentially southern states as well. Looks like the South is pretty ready for a female commander-in-charge!

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 135.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.2%
+1.6% R improvement
(Updated on June 23, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19, 2013)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.2%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.12%
+3.5% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.35% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%

All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.35%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +4.2%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 12.

[eric82oslo]

It's pay day! I mean POLL DAY! Today, Marist & Quinnipiac have released polling data from three crucial battlegrounds: Colorado, Iowa & New Hampshire. Overall they don't really change the picture very much, as Hillary is still trailing in Colorado. Also, she's basically tied with Rand Paul and Christie in Iowa, which undoubtedly is bad news for her, despite having an immensely strong favorable rating there.

Here are the current averages by state...

Colorado:

(Paul Ryan: R+3.5%)
Rand Paul: R+1.57%
Christie: R+1.13%
Huckabee: D+3.67%
Bush: D+5.5%

Iowa:

Christie: D+3.93%
Rand Paul: D+5.58%
Rubio: D+7.59%
Bush: D+7.68%
Walker: D+8.5%
Cruz: D+9.78%

New Hampshire:

(Huckabee: D+2.1%)
Christie: D+3.65%
Rand Paul: D+6.88%
Bush: D+7.15%
Walker: D+9%
Rubio: D+10.03%
Cruz: D+14.67%

Unfortunately Paul Ryan wasn't polled in Colorado, while they didn't poll Huckabee in New Hampshire. Keep in mind that Huckabee's NH average is based on one single poll only.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 138.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19, 2013)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.2%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.1%
+3.5% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%

All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 29 states (for 165 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas & New Hampshire (!) - for 63 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 17.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has polled Mississippi for the 2nd time this season, and that means some great news for Hillary. Sure, she is still predictably lagging behind most GOP contenders, but considerably less than in the previous PPP survey. Huckabee was included for the first time in Mississippi, and with that he's snapped the current GOP lead of the state from Christie. This is the average lead over Hillary each candidate enjoys in the state right now:

Huckabee: R+7%
Jeb Bush: R+6.5%
Christie: R+6%
Rand Paul: R+2%
Cruz: R+1%

Also, a Survey USA poll has now tested Christie against Hillary in Florida, which didn't change anything, as he was still trailing her by 11% in the state, as well as an average trail of 10.7% in the 6 Florida match ups featuring him so far.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 140.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24, 2013)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.2%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 29 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 23.