2016 Official Polling Map Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 118980 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #375 on: September 27, 2013, 07:05:50 PM »
« edited: October 13, 2013, 07:08:29 PM by pbrower2a »

New Jersey Survey of 1000 Likely Voters
Conducted September 19, 2013 By Pulse Opinion Research

In thinking about the 2016 presidential election, suppose you had a choice between Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Chris Christie or Democrat Hillary Clinton?

43% Chris Christie
48% Hillary Clinton
5% Some other candidate
4% Not sure

http://chpp.kean.edu/poll/new-jersey-survey-1000-likely-voters-0

Nothing shown for binary matchups.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #376 on: October 16, 2013, 01:59:10 PM »


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


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Let's make it even simpler. For states for which no polls have been taken yet nobody has any reasonable cause to believe would go other than as they usually do, color them green if they are practically certain to go for any Republican and orange if they are nearly-certain D wins.  I am going to be on the cautious side with Nevada and New Mexico because if Colorado is leaning R for now then those two states are iffy. But if Georgia is iffy, then so are Arizona,  Indiana, and Missouri.  Basically Hillary Clinton is not going to win Alabama, Oklahoma, or Utah and she is not going to lose California, Maryland, or Massachusetts.  I am going to use  pale shades of green and orange because dark orange shades are ugly.



I can't believe that either Arkansas or Kentucky will go for Hillary Clinton -- but if they do we are going to see the dullest Presidential election since the 1980s. As it is I see Hillary with 343 electoral votes with an upside of up to 44 more  based on Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, and  New Mexico.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #377 on: October 29, 2013, 05:58:35 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2013, 06:01:01 PM by pbrower2a »

Republicans surely wish that Wisconsin has become a showcase for the repudiation of liberalism in a state that hasn't voted for a Republican nominee for President since the Reagan blowouts through the glorious achievements of Favorite Sons Governor Scott Walker and Paul Ryan, and they would be ready to vote for just about any Republicans after the Presidential disaster that is Barack Obama.  

Clinton 51, Ryan 43
Clinton 53, Walker 41
Clinton 50, Christie 40
Clinton 55, Cruz 33

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/10/29/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-in-tight-race-with-burke-for-wisconsin-governor-in-2014/

Fantasy disabused. Nothing on Jeb Bush or Rand Paul.

At this point, Scott Walker looks as if he would give the worst Favorite Son performance in his own state since at least George McGovern in 1972. Ted Cruz looks as if he would be setting up an electoral disaster analogous to Barry Goldwater in 1964.  


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #378 on: November 06, 2013, 08:07:42 AM »

No map, as this is a national survey. 

National Survey Results
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_US_110513.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #379 on: November 06, 2013, 08:22:07 AM »

Exit poll, NJ gubernatorial election.
 
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http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/05/21324042-exit-polls-clinton-beats-christie-in-nj-in-potential-2016-matchup


Nothing on anyone else. I would guess that anyone else who has no connection to New Jersey loses New Jersey to Hillary Clinton by a margin in the high teens or even twenties.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #380 on: November 07, 2013, 11:39:06 AM »
« Edited: November 07, 2013, 01:48:49 PM by pbrower2a »

PPP will be polling Maine and North Carolina this week. It may (I hope!) still offer some binary matchups in Minnesota and Texas to fill some gaps in the map from extant polls.

Arizona, Florida, Indiana (don't hold your breath!), and Missouri could be interesting.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #381 on: November 07, 2013, 01:47:58 PM »
« Edited: November 13, 2013, 10:05:48 AM by pbrower2a »

Texas, PPP

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mixed-news-for-cruz-in-texas-polling-numbers.html#more


I get to fill two big gaps. The Republican nominee will need to win Texas by about 15% to have a strong chance of winning nationwide.  

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #382 on: November 13, 2013, 10:04:48 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2013, 01:47:54 PM by pbrower2a »

Approvals for President Obama have slipped badly in Maine, so Republicans ought to be able to stall the Hillary Clinton juggernaut.

Well, not in Maine for now. (PPP)


H Clinton 55 J Bush 32
H Clinton 47 Christie 39
H Clinton  57 T Cruz 30
H Clinton 57 R Paul 32

Nothing on Ryan.

North Carolina:

-Looking ahead to the 2016 Presidential race in North Carolina, Chris Christie is the only Republican who leads Hillary Clinton in the state at this early stage. He's up 46-43. Clinton leads Jeb Bush narrowly in a hypothetical contest (47/43) and then has wider leads over Rand Paul of 9 points (50/41) and Ted Cruz of 12 points (51/39). - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #383 on: November 17, 2013, 10:34:42 PM »


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet (orange -- D sure things -- 139 electoral votes)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #384 on: November 18, 2013, 07:03:30 AM »
« Edited: November 18, 2013, 06:27:30 PM by pbrower2a »

Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20November%202013%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #385 on: November 18, 2013, 06:28:42 PM »

Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

I think this only shows that NYers want Cuomo to stick as their Governor and not run for President, when they already have Hillary for that.

If Cuomo were the DEM nominee, he would do no worse than Obama though in NY ...

Also: You need to re-color NJ, because the Exit Poll showed Clinton leading Christie there by only 48-44.

Done on the most recent map.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #386 on: November 20, 2013, 10:27:52 AM »

Quinnipiac, Colorado:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1978

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #387 on: November 20, 2013, 03:43:35 PM »

Could Hillary Clinton be the first Democratic nominee for President to win Mississippi since Jimmy Carter did in 1976?

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mississippi-cruz-has-a-slim-lead-in-the-primary-and-general.html

Highly unlikely.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #388 on: November 21, 2013, 01:14:57 AM »

I think you should add Ted Cruz and get rid of Ryan.  Hardly anyone polling on him anymore.

I am in no rush to dump Ryan. I have suggested that PPP poll Illinois to see how both high-profile Wisconsin pols would do in Illinois. One is Paul Ryan; the other is Scott Walker.

I see Cruz doing uniformly badly, so his credibility as a candidate is unsupported. About all I can say is that he could win the Presidency if the 2016 election is ragged in much the same way as elections are rigged in Ted's father's native land.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #389 on: November 22, 2013, 05:57:56 AM »

Montana is almost all bad news for Democrats. The Democratic Governor is popular, but such is the only good news for the Democrats in Montana.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MT_112113.pdf

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #390 on: November 22, 2013, 08:46:28 AM »
« Edited: November 23, 2013, 11:46:33 AM by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, Florida:

Even though


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Such does not make a Republican win of Florida in 2016 now look likely:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1980


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #391 on: November 22, 2013, 09:02:25 AM »

I think you should add Ted Cruz and get rid of Ryan.  Hardly anyone polling on him anymore.

I dumped Marco Rubio because he was stumbling around badly, and nobody was talking about him as Presidential material. People were talking about the next-to-last Republican nominee for Vice-President for a long time... and Paul Ryan hasn't made a fool of himself yet. Well, at least not as badly as Rick Perry or Marco Rubio.

As you can see, Quinnipiac just polled Florida for several binary matchups between Hillary Clinton and several imaginable Republican nominees. Paul Ryan was one of them. Florida is a surprisingly-good microcosm of America.

I can dump Ryan in favor of Cruz -- but so far I see Cruz doing badly just about everywhere that is not a sure R state.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #392 on: November 23, 2013, 11:56:54 AM »

pbrower, Hillary leads Bush 47-45 in the new Quinnipiac poll.

You need to change the Hillary/Bush map to a 40% shade.

20% shade because the lead is only 2% with less than 50%. The correction is made.

That said, if she is doing that well against a former governor of Florida who wasn't that bad... then Hillary Clinton can overcome the usual Favorite Son effect.  Against Jeb Bush she could win easily without Florida because she would have excellent chances of winning at least three states (North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) that a Republican nominee absolutely must win to have a chance. Basically she would have to win one of those three states (If I were her I would not count on Colorado), and Florida would be the difference between winning 300 and winning 329 electoral votes. If Rick Scott is still Governor, he probably 'delivers' Florida to the GOP through means other than campaigning.

The last poll of Georgia had a tie between Hillary and Jeb. Such may show the relevance of the Favorite Son.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #393 on: November 24, 2013, 09:52:09 AM »

We will get one 'new' state this weekend -- Illinois, with 20 electoral votes. It could be interesting. Without a Favorite Son running for President this time, Illinois could end up much closer in 2016. The Favorite Son effect is both additive and subtractive.

Such was true of Texas between 2004 and 2008. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #394 on: November 26, 2013, 12:46:58 AM »

Wall Street Journal/Marist/WNBC-TV (NBC-4, New York City)

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http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304465604579220182335855674


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #395 on: November 27, 2013, 06:04:49 PM »

Ohio, Quinnipiac:

In an early look at the 2016 run for the White House, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for New Jersey Republican Gov. Christopher Christie in Ohio. Secretary Clinton tops Gov. John Kasich 49 - 38 percent and leads other Republicans:

    50 - 37 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 39 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida;
    50 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    49 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
    50 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1985

Pennsylvania, PPP:

Christie 48%, Clinton 44%
Clinton 48%, Bush 44%
Clinton 51%, Paul 43%
Clinton 51%, Santorum 42%
Clinton 53%, Cruz 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_PA_112713.pdf

Chris Christie must be an unusually-good match for Pennsylvania but not so good a match for Ohio. Go figure.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #396 on: November 28, 2013, 06:19:49 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2013, 06:21:49 PM by pbrower2a »

pbrower, Christie is actually leading Hillary in Iowa and Virginia.

The Iowa poll is commissioned by an entity that has the word "conservative" in its name.
   
Re: VA-Polling Company/WomanTrend/Washington Free Beacon: Christie ahead
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2013, 12:34:39 pm »    

It should be noted that the Washington Free Beacon is a conservative newspaper and that the owner of the Polling Company is a former aide to Newt Gingrich.

Iowa and Virginia get polled often enough.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #397 on: December 09, 2013, 06:10:55 PM »
« Edited: December 09, 2013, 06:13:03 PM by pbrower2a »

Republicans seem to be reversing the Democratic trend of the last six years or so in Colorado.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_CO_120913.pdf

Note, though:

Very Republican sample at 47-46 Obama-Romney, though.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #398 on: December 11, 2013, 09:43:14 AM »

National, Pew Research:

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Clinton has an edge over Christie and a double-digit lead against anyone else. She leads:

    Christie 48-45;
    Rubio 52-42;
    Bush 53-41;
    Paul 55-40;
    Ryan 56-40;
    Perry 58-37;
    Cruz 57-35;
    Palin 59-36.

Christie does better among Democrats and moderates against Clinton than his fellow Republicans. He also does better among men, which a Republican needs to offset the Democrats’ usual lead among women.

“He chips away a little,” said Miringoff. “But Clinton has her way with the crowd.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/12/10/211208/hillary-clinton-dominates-early.html#storylink=cpy

My interpretation based on how the undecided would go: they either do not vote or go ineffectively to the loser. Hillary Clinton would win much like Obama in 2012 against Christie, roughly 51.5-48.5 (I don't like decimals, but they are close enough to split the vote some, probably about 6-4 for Christie). Hillary would lose the undecided about 7-3 against Bush or Rubio. With the others the undecided are almost all on the Right, and they would go R about 9-1.

Christie 51-48   Kennedy 1960
    Rubio 55-45  Eisenhower 1952
    Bush 56-44   GHW Bush 1988
    Paul 56-44    GHW Bush 1988
    Ryan 57-43   Reagan 1980
    Perry 59-41  Reagan 1980
    Cruz 58-42   Reagan 1980
    Palin 60-40   LBJ 1964

...If anyone is thinking about Sarah Palin as the Great Female Hope for the GOP, she still has one gigantic weakness: her mangled language will offend anyone whose first language is not English, whether that language is German or Tagalog, Russian or Arabic, Hindi or Chinese, or Farsi or Vietnamese.     

In view of his ability to cut even a small deal with Democratic Senator Patty Murray, his stock has probably risen since this poll. I am not abandoning him yet.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #399 on: December 11, 2013, 11:01:41 AM »
« Edited: December 11, 2013, 03:15:30 PM by pbrower2a »

Monmouth, NJ


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




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