2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

I saw no indication of weighting on partisan identity. Other things -- but not partisan identity. Yes, it is possible to get a statewide prediction for a state that splits nearly 50-50 even if one has a 6-1 edge in polling numbers for one party.  

I also saw the approval rating for President Obama. No way is his approval rating in the mid-thirties in New Hampshire when it is in the high forties nationwide.

PPP commonly asks how people voted in the previous Presidential election. Thus if one sees  a split of 49 Romney-47 Obama in Michigan in 2012, one must see that poll with some suspicion.

[pbrower2a]

First Michigan poll, this one by a Republican-leaning poster. So far I see only one usable bit of information, but this tweet gives us a taste of what is to come:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is the first poll involving the 2016 Presidential election in Michigan.

I'm watching for more.

 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Bloomberg/St. Anselm's College

Clinton 44, Bush 42
Clinton 44, Rubio 42
Clinton 46, Paul 43
Clinton 46, Walker 40

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-05-08/150510_methodology_final_31343.pdf

New Hampshire is a legitimate swing state. -- if one speaks of NH primary voters.

 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







[/quote]
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

New Poll: New Jersey President by Monmouth University on 2015-05-03

Summary: D: 53%, R: 30%, U: 9%


 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

WHAS-TV, ABC-11, Louisville -- Paul vs. Clinton

Asked of 2104 registered voters

45% Rand Paul (R)

45% Hillary Clinton (D)

11% Undecided

(error due to rounding)

...Rand Paul leads all other Republicans for the Primary race.


Is the thrill gone?

 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Interesting, I'm expecting a LOT of this to change from this early on.

Thanks for the maps.

You are welcome.

I have at least four maps of electoral match-ups that will not happen. Just think of how entertaining a Barack Obama-Sarah Palin contest would have been. She was not up to the task of  offering a coherent alternative to Barack Obama... and the maps for those match-ups so showed.

In view of the contest among Republicans we may see one candidate seeming to have a good chance and then going into the pack.

So far I see a pattern of Hillary Clinton winning practically everything that Barack Obama won in 2012, only to make the states that Obama got clobbered in in 2012 much closer.

...PPP willl have match-ups for Washington State in the next couple of days. There was a poll today of some elections in Louisiana -- but nothing involving any matchup for any Republican against Hillary Clinton in Louisiana.

[pbrower2a]

Washington (state), PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/clinton-up-big-in-washington.html

Clinton        48
Bush           37

Clinton       49
Carson       39

Clinton       49
Christie      34

Clinton       50
Huckabee   37

Clinton       50
Cruz           38

Clinton       50
Paul           38

Clinton       50
Perry          37

Clinton       49
Rubio         39

Clinton       49
Walker       38

Close to the magic '50' already if not already there. Not competitive. This may be the last poll that we see of Washington state for a very long time. No Republican seems to have a real chance.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

I'm surprised -- nothing from Quinny-pie this week?

[pbrower2a]

Field Poll, California.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2506.pdf

Clinton 53
Rubio 32

Clinton 52
Bush 31

Clinton 54
Walker 30

April 23-May 16, 2015, Sample of 801 registered voters.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

National poll, Quinnipiac

In a general election matchup, Clinton gets 46 percent of American voters to 42 percent for Paul and 45 percent of voters to 41 percent for Rubio. She leads other top Republicans:

    46 - 37 percent over Christie;
    47 - 40 percent over Huckabee;
    47 - 37 percent over Bush;
    46 - 38 percent over Walker;
    48 - 37 percent over Cruz;
    50 - 32 percent over Trump.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 43%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Scott Walker ................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 47%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Chris Christie .................................................. 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Ben Carson..................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Rick Santorum................................................ 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 38%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_52815.pdf


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

Clinton 47, Bush 40
Clinton 46, Carson 44
Clinton 45, Walker 45
Clinton 44, Paul 44
Clinton 45, Rubio 44
Clinton 46, Huckabee 44
Clinton 46, Fiorina 40
Clinton 49, Cruz 42
Clinton 43, Christie 40

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_60415.pdf

Hillary Clinton can afford to lose North Carolina; no Republican can afford to lose North Carolina.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

New PPP polls in Ohio. Hillary Clinton seems to be slipping a bit from last time.

Clinton 45 - Bush 43
Clinton 44 - Carson 43
Clinton 44 - Christie 41
Clinton 45 - Huckabee 42
Clinton 40 - Kasich 47
Clinton 41 - Paul 44
Clinton 44 - Rubio 44
Clinton 44 - Walker 43

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_61015.pdf



Hillary Clinton can afford to lose Ohio; no Republican can afford to lose Ohio.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Jeb, and his alleged advantage in Florida:

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http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-06-14/favorite-son-or-total-stranger-nearly-three-quarters-of-florida-s-voters-have-never-seen-jeb-bush-on-a-ballot

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac -- 67-EV gold mine (FL, OH, PA)

FL:

Hillary/Rubio: 47/44
Hillary/Bush: 46/42
Hillary/Christie: 46/35
Hillary/Paul: 46/39
Hillary/Huckabee: 49/38
Hillary/Walker: 48/38
Hillary/Cruz: 48/37
Hilllary/Kasich: 48/35


OH:

Kasich/Hillary: 47/40
Hillary/Christie: 44/39
Hillary/Paul: 43/43
Hillary/Huckabee: 46/41
Hillary/Bush: 42/41
Hillary/Rubio: 45/42
Hillary/Walker: 44/40
Hillary/Cruz: 47/39


PA:

Rubio/Hillary: 44/43
Paul/Hillary: 45/44
Hillary/Christie: 43/41
Hillary/Huckabee: 46/39
Hillary/Bush: 45/41
Hillary/Walker: 46/41
Hillary/Cruz: 47/40

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2234

Go figure.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Michigan  -- Glengarriff, Detroit News.

Republicans might expect forty years of economic distress to make Michigan easy pickings for the GOP.

Clinton 42%
Rubio 39%

Clinton 45%
Paul 41%

Clinton 44%
Walker 37%

Clinton 46%
Bush 37%


Not this time.
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2015/06/16/poll-president/28843571/

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Time for Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia!

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas, Talk Business/Hendrix College.

The poll has huge limitations, to put it mildly.

Q: If the 2016 general election were held today and Mike Huckabee was the Republican presidential nominee and Hillary Clinton was the Democratic presidential nominee, would you be more likely to vote for Huckabee, Clinton, or are you unsure?

Mike Huckabee 51%
Hillary Clinton 37%

Q: What are your feelings toward Hillary Clinton?

38% Positive
53% Negative

Q: What are your feelings toward Mike Huckabee?

47% Positive
35% Negative

The survey was conducted from June 8-11, 2015 among 1,183 likely Arkansas voters. Respondents were surveyed by automated phone calls (80%) and online polling (20%). The poll has a margin of error of 1.84%

http://talkbusiness.net/2015/06/poll-huckabee-tops-hillary-beebe-bests-boozman-in-arkansas

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

KY, PPP. Bill Clinton is likely to be the last Democrat to win the electoral votes of Kentucky for a very long time.  Last month's Louisville-area media poll that showed a tie between Clinton and Paul is forcibly debunked.

Q14 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q15 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ben
Carson, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%
Ben Carson..................................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Q16 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%
Q17 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Carly
Fiorina, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%
Carly Fiorina ................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%
Q18 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 39%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%
Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Michigan


Clinton (D).................... 45%
Paul (R)....................... 42%

Clinton (D)................... 46%
Rubio (R)...................... 40%

Clinton (D)................... 44%
Christie (R).................. 38%

Clinton (D).................. 46%
Walker (R).................. 42%

Clinton (D)................. 47%
Huckabee (R)............. 42%

Clinton (D)................. 47%
Bush (R).................... 38%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Carson (R)................ 41%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Fiorina (R)................ 41%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Cruz (R).................... 39%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Trump (R)................. 39%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

The strongest GOP hopefuls for the general election, leading Clinton by 4, are Mike Huckabee at 49/45 and Scott Walker at 47/43. Ben Carson leads her by 3 at 47/44, and Marco Rubio and Rand Paul each have 1 point leads at 47/46 and 46/45 respectively.

The weakest Republicans in the state are Donald Trump and Chris Christie who each trail Clinton by 3 points at 47/44 and 46/43 respectively. Also trailing Clinton are Jeb Bush at 45/43 and Ted Cruz at 47/46. Clinton's tie comes with Carly Fiorina at 45%."

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, PPP:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/07/bush-leads-gop-field-in-virginia-but-clinton-ahead-for-general.html#more


Getting ugly for Republicans. They can't win without Virginia... and Bernie Sanders is catching up with them in this state.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Getting ugly for Republicans. They can't win without Virginia.

They can.

They would have to win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and so far I see no Republican winning all three.

I see Bernie Sanders closing in on Republicans as he gets better known... which indicates that the 2016 election does not depend upon the health of Hillary Clinton anymore.

A Republican win in 2016 will depend upon Obama failure. Failure to convince people who were never going to support him under any circumstances is not failure. An economic meltdown, a military debacle, or a diplomatic catastrophe would singly be enough.

Even one of the President's harshest critics, Karl Rove, admits that the President is "cautious".

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Nevada -- commissioned by Democrats, but it looks cautious enough. Less favorable than the most recent poll of Nevada, but Clinton is near 50% against everyone and up by at least 5%. The previous poll of Nevada was more favorable than this.

Clinton (D) 48%
Rubio (R) 43%

Clinton (D) 48%
Trump (R) 42%

Clinton (D) 48%
Walker (R) 41%

Clinton (D) 49%
Bush (R) 37%

http://origin.ralstonreports.com/blog/democratic-poll-shows-nevada-senate-race-dead-heat-hillary-state

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

So you won't add the Quinnipiac polls? LOL
Tender, plz close this thread.

Message sent to pbrower:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

OK. The Republican steamroller has just begun to take off.

I will average polls for Virginia (consecutive weeks).