2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina (registered voters):

Adults:

46-38 Clinton/Bush

Registered voters:

46-40 Clinton/Bush

...

The live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 867 residents – of which, 773 said they were registered to vote – was conducted Feb. 16-20, 2015. They survey had a margin of error of 3.33 percentage points for all respondents and 3.52 percentage points for registered voters.

http://www.elon.edu/e-net/Article/109015
[/quote]

Pennsylvania (adults):

Clinton 49
Bush 32

Clinton 50
Christie 31

Clinton 50
Romney 29

http://www.mcall.com/mc-acrobat-morning-call-poll-politics-20150219-acrobat.html

[pbrower2a]

Elon, North Carolina. PPP will almost certainly supplant this one.  I'm not using the 'adult' poll from Pennsylvania.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more








[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Gravis (through Breitbart) -- Nevada

This comes from Gravis, through very right-wing Breitbart. Considering the source, it suggests that Nevada is at best (for Republicans) on the fringe of contention in 2016, and that there is little wiggle room for any Republican nominee against Hillary Clinton.  The Gravis poll of Iowa was close to that of less-derided polls, so maybe this one is valid. 

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/02/26/first-look-scott-walker-leads-in-nevada-poll-jeb-performs-worst-against-hillary/

Clinton 49%
Walker 43%

Clinton 49%
Paul 42%

Clinton 47%
Christie 38%

Clinton 50%
Bush 37%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

States that I would like to see polled:

Illinois (Senate race)
Wisconsin (Walker's state and a Senate race)
Indiana (lots of luck!)
Arizona
Georgia
Arkansas
Missouri (someone credible)
Kentucky (Paul's home state, gubernatorial contest)
Kansas

[pbrower2a]

Clinton 46%
Bush 42%

Clinton 45%
Christie 42%

Clinton 46%
Huckabee 46%

Clinton 46%
Paul 43%

Clinton 45%
Walker 43%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_30415.pdf

Elon looks good.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

March 2-3, 2015
Survey of 946 registered voters (most questions are about the US Senate):


Ohio, PPP:

Clinton 45 - Bush 40

Clinton 49 - Walker 41

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/01/OhioResults1.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more









[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Wisconsin:

The state in which Scott Walker is Governor does not really like him (approval 43%, disapproval 52%), and against Hillary Clinton he is down 52-43%. Against other Republicans she is close to 50% and ahead by at least 6%.

Scott Walker does not have a favorite-son advantage over other Republicans in Wisconsin. Wisconsin is now at most on the fringe of contention for Republicans for President. Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee do better against Hillary than Bush or Christie (alleged Establishment candidates).

Indeed, both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren would hold leads, if within the margin of error, against Scott Walker in Wisconsin. If Walker is going to lose Wisconsin 53-47, then the only Rust Belt state that he can win is Indiana. Just look at the Ohio polls.  

Wisconsin is split on the Right-to-Work legislation that the Wisconsin State legislature passed and Scott Walker signed by a 44-42 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WI_31015.pdf

  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Wisconsin:

The state in which Scott Walker is Governor does not really like him (approval 43%, disapproval 52%), and against Hillary Clinton he is down 52-43%. Against other Republicans she is close to 50% and ahead by at least 6%.

Scott Walker does not have a favorite-son advantage over other Republicans in Wisconsin. Wisconsin is now at most on the fringe of contention for Republicans for President. Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee do better against Hillary than Bush or Christie (alleged Establishment candidates).

Indeed, both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Walker would hold leads, if within the margin of error, against Scott Walker in Wisconsin. If Walker is going to lose Wisconsin 53-47, then the only Rust Belt state that he can win is Indiana. Just look at the Ohio polls. 

Wisconsin is split on the Right-to-Work legislation that the Wisconsin State legislature passed and Scott Walker signed by a 44-42 margin.

I guess you were VERY excited about that WI poll.

I was. I also corrected the error. Thank you.

[pbrower2a]

It's curious that you included the PPP poll for OH Dems in your map and you have not included the Mason Dixon poll of Florida because it showed Bush up 5 against Clinton.

The real offense is including Gravis. If we're going to include...them, then yeah, Mason Dixon should be included as well.

The Gravis poll that I used was for Nevada, a State rarely polled. I was not going to use it... except that it concurred with an Iowa poll that seemed right. The Gravis poll of Nevada came from right-wing Breitbart, so if it saw Hillary as a sure thing in Nevada despite its editors wishing otherwise, it was likely good.

Ordinarily I avoid Gravis.

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut, Quinnipiac. Forty years ago one might have expected Connecticut, one of the richest states in the Union, to side with the more wealth-friendly Party for President. Of course, that was when Carter was running for President, and he won the Presidency despite losing Connecticut.

Oh, how times have changed!

Clinton 52%
Christie 34%

Clinton 54%
Paul 32%

Clinton 56%
Huckabee 31%

Clinton 52%
Bush 34%

Clinton 53%
Rubio 34%

Clinton 53%
Walker 33%

Clinton 55%
Cruz 30%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2175

  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

CNN/ORC national poll:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/03/17/poll.2016.pdf

Clinton 55%
Bush 40%

Clinton 55%
Christie 40%

Clinton 55%
Rubio 42%

Clinton 55%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 54%
Paul 43%

Clinton 56%
Carson 40%

Clinton 55%
Walker 40%

With the caveat that this is an adult poll... If those who respond to such a poll who do not subsequently vote are Democrats, then we can lop about 2% from the Clinton numbers, but those for Republicans -- all Republicans -- are very bad.

There aren't many undecided in these polls, and with Hillary getting favored by 55% or so, even if all of the undecided are R-leaning that still puts Hillary Clinton at 55-45 or so.   

This is inconsistent with the polls shown in the thread so far. Most of the polling on this map is by PPP or Quinnipiac, both of which tend to get slightly R-friendly results. Most of the polls are of states that Obama won twice, and Hillary Clinton has shown herself winning just about all those states. But not that big.

The only state that has a poll by a pollster that I have ever heard of in which Obama lost twice is South Carolina, and that one looks much closer. I can hardly imagine Hillary gaining enough support on the West Coast exclusively to win California 75-25.

We may see polls of Georgia, Arizona, and Texas soon enough to tell us..

The last time we had a 54-46 split of the Presidential vote, the results looked thus:
 


No, I don't have the color-scheme inverted; that was 1988, and the elder Bush won.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac poll of New York:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2179

Clinton 54%
Christie 34%

Clinton 59%
Paul 31%

Clinton 58%
Huckabee 29%

Clinton 58%
Bush 30%

Clinton 58%
Rubio 31%

Clinton 58%
Walker 31%

Clinton 60%
Cruz 27%

Clinton 55%
Pataki 34%

If you want a good mystery set in New York on the night of the 2016 general election, your best hope will be that Turner Classic Movies will be playing the great Hitchcock masterpiece Rear Window.  It won't be the Empire State's 38 electoral votes.



  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

PPP will have a poll out for Florida in a couple of days.

We should soon discover whether there is any Great Right Hope for the next President.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Florida:

Clinton 47 - Bush 44
Clinton 49 - Christie 41
Clinton 49 - Huckabee 44
Clinton 46 - Paul 42
Clinton 49 - Walker 41

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_32415.pdf

We get to add Scott Walker to the mix. Some of the commanding leads that Hillary had in the last poll seem to be cut a bit.  Approval  for President Obama is back to 45%, so he is no longer a drag on a campaign for a Democrat.

Biden ties Walker; Warren barely edges Walker.






  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

First, the good news for Republicans: Any Republican nominee for President is going to win a gigantic swath of territory, and it will have a dominating appearance on the electoral map.

Now for the bad news: it's Montana, which has only three electoral votes to offer.

49-35 Bush/Clinton
48-38 Paul/Clinton
49-37 Walker/Clinton
50-33 Christie/Clinton
50-33 Huckabee/Clinton

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-2/

Not my favorite pollster, but it could be the last poll that I see of Montana for a while. 
  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

You don't make maps with Rubio?

I don't make them with Carson, Cruz, Giuliani, Palin, or Ryan either. Or on the other side Biden or Warren.

Rubio showed himself as a marginal pol. He could have trouble getting re-elected in the Senate. His approval rating is 45% in Florida.

[pbrower2a]

Emerson College poll of Massachusetts:

http://www.argojournal.com/2015/03/poll-watch-emerson-college_0.html

Clinton 58%
Walker 38%

Clinton 59%
Bush 38%

Clinton 61%
Paul 36%

Poll by some college that I know little about... No surprise here. it's Massachusetts. Adults, so not as good as 'likely' or 'registered' voters. 
  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

St. Leo College, Florida

http://polls.saintleo.edu/clintons-numbers-slip-but-she-maintains-frontrunner-position/

Clinton 47
Bush 44

Clinton 50
Rubio 42

Clinton 51
Christie 37

Clinton 52
Paul 38

Clinton 51
Walker 35 

I'm not going to change or even the recent PPP poll to accommodate this one. Really, this one looks better for Hillary Clinton than do the PPP polls.

Needless to say, if polls consistently show bare to solid wins for Hillary Clinton in Florida, then ... how do I adapt the bromide about being up to one's eyeballs with alligators in the swamp?
  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

For now I do not take Ted Cruz seriously. He has yet to align a part of the GOP base as have others. He would be at most someone whom Republicans would settle on if their favorites (probably Bush, Huckabee, and Walker) would falter and Christie loses the apparent ability to win moderate Democratic voters. "Bomb Teheran now!" might attract the warmonger faction of the GOP, but it would scare about everyone else into something safer.

He could lose almost as badly as Goldwater in 1964 except for the huge difference in electoral votes between Arizona in 1964 (only five) and Texas (38). 

[pbrower2a]

St. Leo College, Florida

http://polls.saintleo.edu/clintons-numbers-slip-but-she-maintains-frontrunner-position/

Clinton 47
Bush 44

Clinton 50
Rubio 42

Clinton 51
Christie 37

Clinton 52
Paul 38

Clinton 51
Walker 35 

I'm not going to change or even the recent PPP poll to accommodate this one. Really, this one looks better for Hillary Clinton than do the PPP polls.

Needless to say, if polls consistently show bare to solid wins for Hillary Clinton in Florida, then ... how do I adapt the bromide about being up to one's eyeballs with alligators in the swamp?
  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, gold mine (FL, OH, PA)

Florida

Bush: 45%
Clinton: 42%

Rubio: 44%
Clinton: 46%

Paul: 43%
Clinton: 46%

Christie: 39%
Clinton: 44%

Huckabee: 40%
Clinton: 48%

Walker: 40%
Clinton: 46%

Cruz: 39%
Clinton: 48%

Ohio

Clinton: 46%
Paul: 41%

Clinton: 47%
Bush: 38%

Clinton: 45%
Christie: 39%

Clinton: 49%
Huckabee: 39%

Clinton: 47%
Rubio: 38%

Clinton: 49%
Walker: 38%

Clinton: 48%
Cruz: 38%

Pennsylvania

Paul: 45%
Clinton: 44%

Christie: 40%
Clinton: 45%

Bush: 40%
Clinton: 46%

Huckabee: 41%
Clinton: 47%

Rubio: 42%
Clinton: 46%

Walker: 41%
Clinton: 46%

Cruz: 39%
Clinton: 48%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/sw/ps03312015_sgt63kd.pdf

I find the idea of Rand Paul being ahead of Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania... a bit suspect.
  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Nevada, Gravis:

President:
Hillary/Bush: 48/38
Hillary/Paul: 50/42
Hillary/Christie. 48/38
Hillary/Walker: 49/41
Hillary/Sandoval: 46/45


https://strehlspresidentialelection2016.wordpress.com/
  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, CO/IA/VA

Colorado

Paul 44%
Clinton 41%

Clinton 41%
Christie 39%

Clinton 41%
Bush 38%

Walker 42%
Clinton 41%

Clinton 41%
Huckabee 41%



Iowa

Paul 43%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 41%
Christie 39%

Clinton 41%
Bush 40%

Clinton 44%
Walker 40%

Clinton 42%
Huckabee 42%


Virginia

Clinton 47%
Paul 43%

Clinton 46%
Christie 40%

Clinton 47%
Bush 40%

Clinton 47%
Walker 40%

Clinton 48%
Huckabee 40%

(Really, polls with nobody getting 45% are practically useless as predictors). 

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2184



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Rand Paul must be the Flavor of the Month.

[pbrower2a]

States (and  DC) not polled include:

California  55
Delaware 3
District of Columbia 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 20
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Michigan 16
Minnesota 10
New Mexico 5
Oregon 8
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 10

That's 157 electoral votes there, and I have yet to see anyone telling me how Republicans can expect to pick up any of them. None of them offered much mystery on how they would go in 2008 or 2012. The only way in which the climate of the Presidential race of 2016 could be different from that of 2012 is that racial animus is unlikely to play a factor in 2016. That would hurt the Republicans in states that could vote for Bill Clinton but not Hillary Clinton.