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  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 110590 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #275 on: April 17, 2014, 11:54:42 am »
« edited: April 17, 2014, 02:06:01 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP, Texas:

Paul- 50%
Clinton- 40%

Huckabee- 50%
Clinton- 42%

Bush- 50%
Clinton- 42%

Cruz- 50%
Clinton- 43%

Perry- 49%
Clinton- 44%

Christie- 44%
Clinton- 42%

Hillary would bring Texas closer than any Democrat in the 21st century. Safe R.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/ted-cruz-most-popular-in-texas.html

PPP will have polls for Wisconsin next week. It might show how well two potential favorite sons would do.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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eric82oslo
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« Reply #276 on: April 17, 2014, 10:41:08 pm »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 07:57:10 am by eric82oslo »

PPP has released its 4th Texas poll on 2016, Mike Huckabee being included for the very first time in state polling there. Of the 7 GOP candidates who have been tested in Texas, Hillary right now just leads two of them; Rick Perry and Marco Rubio. On average, the 3 strongest GOP contenders in the state seem right now to be Huckabee (+8%), Rand Paul (+7%) and Jeb Bush (+6%). This means that Huckabee replaces Jeb Bush in Texas and that the Republican advantage there increases from +5% to +8%. Which is still, of course, just half as strong a number as Romney managed in 2012. By trumping Bush in the crucial/big state of Texas, Huckabee is now the 3rd best positioned candidate on the Republican side after (still overwhelming favourites) Christie and Bush.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 110.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.3%
+3.6% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:





Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & North Carolina (all leaning towards Hillary), as well as Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Mike Huckabee in 2 states (Texas (!) & Louisiana (!))
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of April 18.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #277 on: April 18, 2014, 12:07:13 am »

There just aren't that many arguable swing states not now polled.

I would guess that having been Governor of Arkansas matter far more than does having been First Lady of the State, so I would guess that Mike Huckabee would win the state.  I see no cause to believe that Paul Ryan will run for President in 2016; he seems more interested in gaining power within the House of Representatives. So Colorado goes to Clinton.

Using green for unpolled states almost certain to go R and using orange for unpolled states almost certain to go D, and I get (pastel green and orange)



I have no idea on either Indiana or Missouri, and NE-02 would be in doubt.

It looks like a replay of 2008 except with Indiana and Missouri undecided.

 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #278 on: April 18, 2014, 07:18:50 am »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 07:56:37 am by eric82oslo »

The new WomanTrend/the polling company's Iowa 2016 poll is the 8 such in the state, yet only the 2nd one to include Mike Huckabee. The previous GOP best man, Christie, remains unchanged at -3%, yet he has to accept a 2nd position in the state now that Huckabee's average has exceeded him. Huckabee has gone from -4% to his current -1.85% in Iowa. All other GOPers except these two are still far behind Hillary in the state.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 111.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.35%
+3.6% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:





Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 15 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Arkansas: D +2%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & North Carolina (all leaning towards Hillary), as well as Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 15 of 28 states (for 179 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 72 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 3 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!) & Iowa (!) - for 52 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado - for 9 EVs)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


Current update as of April 18.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #279 on: April 18, 2014, 09:19:13 am »
« Edited: April 19, 2014, 01:00:10 am by pbrower2a »

The Washington Free Beacon is a very right-wing journal.  So beware.

Here is an interesting piece of polling. I had a desire to see how Scott Walker, Governor of neighboring Wisconsin (a state demographically similar to Iowa) would do in Iowa:

45.9% HILLARY CLINTON
40.4% SCOTT WALKER

He'd have his work cut out. As shown in 2000, a Republican nominee can win without Iowa,  but the state is close enough to the national average that Iowa has to be within the margin of error.

PPP will probably ask how Hillary Clinton does against Walker in Wisconsin.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #280 on: April 18, 2014, 11:33:51 am »

If the poll had asked about the presidential match ups before their push polling, I'd have no qualms with including it. But considering it came after questions such as this:

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..it should probably be disregarded.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #281 on: April 18, 2014, 11:59:31 am »

Bruce Braley doesn't have much to do with Hillary though. People aren't that stupid. Besides, this is the most ridiculous so-called "scandal" I've ever come across. There's nothing even slightly scandalous with his statements. It's a storm in a glass of water and not even that.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #282 on: April 18, 2014, 12:00:30 pm »

Bruce Braley doesn't have much to do with Hillary though. People aren't that stupid. Besides, this is the most ridiculous so-called "scandal" I've ever come across. There's nothing even slightly scandalous with his statements. It's a storm in a glass of water and not even that.

It's just more likely to inspire negative feelings about Democrats overall. That's why reputable polling firms always include approvals/favorability/match ups before asking any additional questions.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #283 on: April 24, 2014, 09:02:19 am »

Quinnipiac, Colorado:

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That is far out of touch with the 2012 election in Colorado. Lower approval than in Louisiana?



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2034


Possible caveats:

1. Quinnipiac may undercount the large Hispanic part of the Colorado electorate. I have seen that before.

2. Colorado has a very loud libertarian current in political discourse (much like California) but that has usually proved ineffective at election time since 2006.

But at those two, I am arguing the dynamics of the election before it happens.

Quinnipiac is good elsewhere and polls Colorado in good faith, so I can't dispute it.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #284 on: April 24, 2014, 09:36:12 pm »

So why is Hillary doing so badly in Colorado with Quinnipiac?

Could it be that Q, which seems to be reasonable enough everywhere else, is badly off on Colorado? Maybe its polls undercount Hispanics? Nobody has that problem with Q in Florida, which it does poll often. It could be something else.


Q has a good model for a midterm election. It has Udall barely leading in a hot Senate race -- but it does have him leading. It also has President Obama with an approval rating in the high 30s, which looks much unlike the 2012 (and 2016) electorate.

But that model depresses the D vote, and using it for 2016 may be questionable.  So if you are involved heavily with politics as a narrative, which election are you looking at more closely  -- the November election this year or November 2016?

OK -- with a midterm electorate, Hillary Clinton probably loses Colorado.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #285 on: April 24, 2014, 09:43:00 pm »
« Edited: April 24, 2014, 10:13:08 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP, Wisconsin

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 51%
Scott Walker ................................................... 44%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 39%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 38%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Chris Christie .................................................. 36%


Note that the two possible Favorite Sons (Scott Walker and Paul Ryan) fare badly in their home state. So much for the idea that Walker has developed a huge crossover vote in Wisconsin that can inspire Republicans to cast their support to him.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #286 on: April 24, 2014, 09:58:32 pm »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 07:55:45 am by eric82oslo »

Two more polls added to the lot yesterday. The one in Colorado (the 8th of the season) didn't really change all that much, since they didn't include Paul Ryan once more. If they keep excluding him from future Colorado polls, I will eventually remove him from the state altogether. Yet we're still 2 1/2 years away, so I'd say no reason to rush for now. Interestingly though, he's not the only one still ahead of Clinton in the state. Both Christie (+1.6%) & Rand Paul (+1.3%) are still ahead of her on average. The 4 remaining candidates are trailing: Rubio by -1.5%, Cruz by -3.2%, Huckabee by -4% and Jeb Bush worst at -6%.

Then we have the PPP poll of Wisconsin, which is "only" the 5th 2016 poll of the state. The state has deteriorated significantly for Republicans in general and for Jeb Bush in particular, who with this catastophical poll (being 11% down) loses his "lead" in the state to Wisconsinite Paul Ryan (who's coincidentially ahead in Colorado as well). This means that Hillary improves her Wisconsin lead from 4% to 5.1%. Bush is 2nd with -7.5%, followed by Christie at -8.1%, Scott Walker at -9.2% and Rand Paul at -9.9%. Huckabee, Rubio & Cruz are all down by horrific double digits (Cruz worst at -16.5%).

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 113.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.3%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 15 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Arkansas: D +2%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 15 of 28 states (for 179 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 3 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!) & Iowa (!) - for 52 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


Current update as of April 25.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #287 on: May 01, 2014, 11:33:28 am »

Quinnipiac, Florida.


49 - 41 percent over Bush;
52 - 40 percent over Rubio;
55 - 37 percent over Paul;
52 - 34 percent over Christie;
56 - 36 percent over Ryan;
57 - 31 percent over Cruz;
53 - 35 percent over Huckabee

Devastating. If Q seemed to unduly exaggerate R chances in Colorado, it may have underestimated them by a similar amount in Florida based on polls released this week.

Republican nominees for President cannot now win without Florida.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #288 on: May 01, 2014, 09:27:30 pm »

Quote
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- See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/#sthash.wvtqh5EJ.dpuf

In case anyone was wondering whether the leads in polls that Hillary Clinton had in Arkansas last year were real -- we now have some corroboration.  This state could be trouble for Republicans of all kinds in 2016.

Republicans can't win the presidency without Arkansas, either, and they are not going to win the Presidency while winning Arkansas by only 3%.  The Favorite Son effect obviously is stronger with an ex-Governor than with an ex-First Lady of the State... 



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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eric82oslo
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« Reply #289 on: May 05, 2014, 08:42:03 am »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 07:55:06 am by eric82oslo »

Two new polls out last week from Arkansas and Florida. The Florida poll just reaffirms what we've seen in other Florida polls, that Hillary leads all Republicans there with at least 7-8%. The Arkansas poll however changes the narrative in the state, as Mike Huckabee is included there for the fist time. Thus, Arkansas goes from lean Democratic to lean Republican. Overall, Huckabee makes the state tilt 5% more towards the Republican side.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 115.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement

(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Florida: D +6.5%
13. Alaska: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 14 of 28 states (for 173 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 4 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas & Iowa (!) - for 58 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 5.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #290 on: May 11, 2014, 05:58:02 pm »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 07:54:33 am by eric82oslo »

The new Dartmouth/Rockefeller Center poll of New Hampshire is the first ever 2016 poll of that state to include Mike Huckabee in the mix up. And boy does he do well, only trailing Hillary by 2.1%. However, one should be a bit cautious with the numbers, as except for the Jeb Bush match-up, the 3 other match-up numbers all seem a bit inflated for the Republican candidate compared to previous polls of the state. Nevertheless, this means that Huckabee has managed to steal the New Hampshire crown from Christie for now.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 116.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement

(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Florida: D +6.5%
13. Alaska: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 28 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 12.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #291 on: May 11, 2014, 09:08:11 pm »

I'm not using the Dartmouth poll -- too many undecided. Do you remember the polls from the summer of 2008 that showed Barack Obama up 43-41 or so in North and South Dakota? Of course. Obama would top out around 46% in those states.   

New Hampshire could easily be a mirror image of such.
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« Reply #292 on: May 12, 2014, 09:17:59 am »

There just aren't that many arguable swing states not now polled.

I would guess that having been Governor of Arkansas matter far more than does having been First Lady of the State, so I would guess that Mike Huckabee would win the state.  I see no cause to believe that Paul Ryan will run for President in 2016; he seems more interested in gaining power within the House of Representatives. So Colorado goes to Clinton.

Using green for unpolled states almost certain to go R and using orange for unpolled states almost certain to go D, and I get (pastel green and orange)



I have no idea on either Indiana or Missouri, and NE-02 would be in doubt.

It looks like a replay of 2008 except with Indiana and Missouri undecided.

 

Even this understates Democratic chances. The potential nominee who wins Arkansas loses Arizona, and vice-versa. A Republican nominee for President can afford to lose neither state.

Arkansas looks like less of a loss than Arizona, but although Arkansas has five fewer electoral votes, Arkansas has plenty of political analogues. If you look at the five states that Bill Clinton won twice and Obama lost by huge margins twice (AR, KY, LA, TN, WV), you notice 38 electoral votes -- as much as Texas. These states are demographically similar to Arkansas.

To some extent that neglects Georgia and Missouri, which could also be GOP disasters.   
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #293 on: May 13, 2014, 12:32:15 am »
« Edited: May 13, 2014, 01:03:01 am by eric82oslo »

To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far, I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. New York - 39 EVs
5. Rhode Island - 43 EVs (still not polled)
6. Maryland - 53 EVs (still not polled)
7. Massachusetts - 64 EVs (still not polled)
8. California - 119 EVs (still not polled)
9. Delaware - 122 EVs (still not polled)
10. Connecticut - 129 EVs (still not polled)
11. Illinois - 149 EVs (still not polled)
12. Washington - 161 EVs (still not polled)
13. New Mexico - 166 EVs
14. Oregon - 173 EVs (still not polled)
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Florida - 220 EVs
18. Nevada - 226 EVs (still not polled for 2016!)
19. Minnesota - 236 EVs
20. Ohio - 254 EVs
21. Wisconsin - 264 EVs

22. Michigan - 280 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

23. Virginia - 293 EVs
24. New Hampshire - 297 EVs
25. Iowa - 303 EVs
26. Pennsylvania - 323 EVs
27. North Carolina - 338 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

28. Arizona - 349 EVs
29. Georgia - 365 EVs
30. Arkansas - 371 EVs
31. Colorado - 380 EVs
32. Kentucky - 388 EVs
33. Louisiana - 396 EVs
34. South Carolina - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Mississippi - 452 EVs
38. Kansas - 458 EVs
39. Missouri - 468 EVs (still not polled)
40. Indiana - 479 EVs (still not polled)
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. North Dakota - 493 EVs (still not polled)
45. Tennessee - 504 EVs (still not polled)
46. Nebraska - 509 EVs (still not polled)
47. Alabama - 518 EVs (still not polled)
48. Wyoming - 521 EVs
49. Idaho - 525 EVs (still not polled)
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)

Michigan would be the tipping point state even if it happened to surpass Wisconsin on this list. So Michigan will for sure be a crucial battleground state in 2016, even if it will be far from the only one. Other big states +/- 3-5% off Michigan's current average of Hillary +4.8% should be considered crucial as well, including Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

If the current poll numbers are about right, it could mean that the Democratic advantage of 2012 could reverse into a Republican advantage in the Electoral College in 2016, which could turn out to be about a -2.4% disadvantage for Hillary. Compare that to Obama's Electoral College advantage in 2012, which was about +1.5%. The reason for this is obvious; most battleground states - with the clear exceptions of Florida, Ohio and North Carolina - have either not moved much at all, or have moved in a Republican direction for now. That's a big contrast to most Republican states, which have on average moved a lot towards Hillary.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #294 on: May 14, 2014, 12:24:30 pm »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_514.pdf

Mostly within the margin of error, and all likely wins for Hillary Clinton. That said, any Republican nominee for President would be in trouble if he were winning North Carolina by less than the margin of error.




Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #295 on: May 14, 2014, 02:05:41 pm »

PPP, Alaska:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/05/alaska-miscellany.html#more

Alaska could be close in 2016.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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eric82oslo
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« Reply #296 on: May 14, 2014, 04:02:10 pm »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 07:53:01 am by eric82oslo »

PPP has released two more 2016 smatch-up polls today. The Alaska poll marks the 4th PPP poll of the state, while the North Carolina poll is the 8th 2016 poll in that state, all executed by PPP as well. Jeb Bush' lead in Alaska decreases slightly from +7.5% to +7%, with Rand Paul just behind him at +6%. Hillary's lead over Chris Christie in North Carolina inches slightly up from +0.3% to her current +0.9%. Bush does second best in the state among GOPers, only trailing her by 2.3%. The rest of the field (Huckabee, Rand Paul, Cruz & Rubio) trails her by more than 5%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 118.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement

(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 28 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 14.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #297 on: May 15, 2014, 08:14:17 am »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 07:52:26 am by eric82oslo »

Today we've gotten the 5th 2016 poll of Ohio, including the 4th from Quinnipiac alone. According to the poll, Hillary is leading all 8 GOP opponents there with margins ranging between 5% and 14%. Christie is still the leader of the GOP pack, but with his deteriorating numbers, he slumps further down the road, now trailing Hillary by 6.2%, compared to his previous -5.75%. Second best Republican is Huckabee (polled in Ohio for the 1st time) who's trailing by 8%. Rand Paul, Ryan & Rubio all trail by 10% and their favourite son John Kasich by 11.5%, while Bush & Cruz do particularily badly, trailing by 12.75% & 15.3% respectively.

On May 18, I've added the latest Kentucky poll from Survey USA as well. It didn't change much, as Rand Paul was the only one matched, and he's still just 1.25% ahead of Hillary. Which means that Jeb Bush is still the leader of the GOP pack in the state, leading Hillary with 4%. Christie is also leading her by 4%, however his floor is lower than Jeb Bush's (44% against 46%). Which means that the favourite son Paul is just the 3rd most popular GOPer in the state of the 4 tried & tested (Marco Rubio does the worst).


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 120.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+17% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.4%
+6.5% D improvement

(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on May 12, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.9%
+2.9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.3% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 209 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.5% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 36.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 13 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +17%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%

10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Florida: D +6.5%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.4%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.3%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Virginia: D +3.2%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.9%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 13 of 28 states (for 169 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 5 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Arkansas, Iowa (!) & New Hampshire (!) - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


All in all; North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico being amazing news for Hillary (a red state going blue or blue states going even bluer), while Colorado is equally bad news for her (a blue state going red). Interestingly though, four out of those five states are swing/battleground/purple states. Meaning that we're not seeing a further polarization of the electorate in most states - at least not this far.

Current update as of May 18.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #298 on: May 15, 2014, 03:13:49 pm »
« Edited: May 15, 2014, 05:03:54 pm by pbrower2a »

Lots of matchups in a swing state. Republicans have their work cut out for them if they are to deliver the key 18 electoral votes of Ohio.

47 - 42 percent over Ohio Gov. John Kasich (+5)
48 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin (+7)
47 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida (+7)
49 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky (+8)
46 - 38 percent over N.J. Gov. Christopher Christie (+8)
49 - 41 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (+8)
48 - 39 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (+9)
51 - 37 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (+14)

From May 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,174 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2042


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #299 on: May 17, 2014, 08:20:55 pm »

SurveyUSA, for several KY media:

Paul 48, Clinton 44

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/Day2_MAYPOLL_.pdf

Really, awful for Rand Paul when one considers that he would be a Favorite Son in Kentucky. No other matchups shown.


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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