2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[eric82oslo]

PPP has polled Alaska once again (third time this season). Just like the previous times, Jeb Bush is still the strongest candidate in the state, though Rand Paul is not far behind (does only 1,5% worse). Jeb Bush is ever so slightly expanding his lead in the state (going from +7% to +7.5%.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 89.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.1% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +10.1%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%

Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas)
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 5.

[eric82oslo]

In Colorado, which has been polled for the 6th time now, it's a very Close race between Chris Christie and Paul Ryan for the lead. Christie is still slightly Ahead, as he's leading Hillary by an average of 3.6%, despite trailing her by 1% in this latest poll. However, the two polls which have also included Ryan, shows him with an average lead of 3.5%, basically the same as Christie's lead. In other words, next time the two get polled in the state, or even just Christie does, it's hard to imagine Ryan not surpassing the New Jersey Governor then. Hillary does improve her Colorado average by 1.15%, though still trailing Obama's 2016 margin in the state by a whooping 9%.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 90.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.1% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%

Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas [and almost Colorado])
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 6.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has just polled North Carolina for the 5th time this presidential election cycle (the only one to my knowledge who's been polling the state so far), including for the 4th time with Christie included. Due to Christie having been up on Hillary the three previous times they've clashed together in the state, and Christie still only trailing the frontrunner by 3% in North Carolina, the NJ Governor still retains a very scarce lead in the state by a meager 1%. Christie is btw the only Republican who's ever been ahead of Hillary in the state in any of the 18 match-ups they've conducted. The closest non-Christie Republicans have been to endanger Hillary in the state was when Jeb Bush only trailed her by 1% in December. In other words, right now, North Carolina looks fairly safe for Hillary, unless the underlying conditions should change substatially in the years leading up to the election. This also results in North Carolina going from a slight Republican to a slight Democratic swing relative to 2012. All of the (polled) South except Virginia is now showing Democratic swings.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 91.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%

North Carolina: R +1%
Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina, Louisiana and Georgia (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas [and almost Colorado])
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 12.

[eric82oslo]

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

You've forgot to include the PPP poll from December that had Christie 4% ahead of Hillary in Kentucky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Kentucky

Also there's the Harper poll that showed Christie ahead of Hillary in South Carolina, but I think I remember you not including it cause of the unreliableness of the pollster. Wouldn't take an earthquake for a Republican to be ahead of Hillary in SC though.

[eric82oslo]

New York has been polled for the 5th time, even by three different pollsters. This time it's Quinnipiac getting at it again, showing Hillary with a 27% edge over Christie. It doesn't change the race a whole lot, just adding another point to Hillary's already impressive lead in the state. Now it would be very interesting seeing any other of the leading GOP contenders being matched with Hillary in the state. Perhaps Paul Ryan or Jeb Bush would do better there? Even Rubio or Rand Paul could potentially have a shot - that is doing better than Christie does right now.

Also, Epic-MRA has polled Michigan for the 1st time, 5th time a pollster has polled there this season & the 4th time with Christie included. Unfortunately they only polled the Hillary-Christie match-up, yet nothing changed for the average of that contest. Hillary still leading in the state by 3.75%.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 93.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1%
+3.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.1% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%

North Carolina: R +1%
Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina, Louisiana and Georgia (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas [and almost Colorado])
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of February 14.

[eric82oslo]

Louisiana has been polled for the 4th time, once again by PPP. 4 Republicans are still ahead of Hillary in the state, while Christie is tied to her and their Governor Jindal is trailing her by 2.5%. Paul Ryan is still ahead by 1%, Rand Paul by 2.5%, while Jeb Bush has opened a strong 3.5% lead. However, it's Mike Huckabee, who's been included for the first time in the state, who flashes the most impressive lead, being a whole 5% ahead of the Dem frontrunner.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 94.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.1% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +15%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%

North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 or 7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Kansas [and almost Colorado])
6. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 18.

[eric82oslo]

Thanks to Quinnipiac we now have our 4th poll of 2016 match-ups from the ultimate battleground state of Ohio. Because Christie previously have been lightyears ahead of everyone else on the Republican side, he keeps his lead for now, even by a considerable margin. On this last occasion though, he only polled shared third the best on the Republican side, after Paul Ryan and Ohio's own Governor John Kasich. Nevertheless, Christie slips in the crucial state by about 2.5%, going down from -3.3% to the current -5.75%.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 95.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +15%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%

North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Kansas [and almost Colorado])
6. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 20.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has polled Kansas for the 2nd time this season, yet the 4 Republican candidates they tested this time again Clinton, were tested for the first time in the state. Best of them all did Jeb Bush, leading her by 9%, thus substituting the previous leader in the state, Paul Ryan. This means that Kansas is slowly drifting away from any chances of a Hillary upset, unsurprisingly. Jeb Bush is now the presumably strongest general election candidate in no less than 7 of the 26 states tested, including the very important states of Texas and Florida.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 96.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.1% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.95% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.95%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%

North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 24.

[eric82oslo]

How come you have Hillary beating Rand Paul and Chris Christie in Kansas?

[eric82oslo]

Qunnipiac has polled Pennsylvania voters for the 4th time and for the 6th time when we include PPP polls of the state as well. Christie was included in the state match-ups for the 4th time, yet not losing much ground compared to the 3 previous polls in the state. He was previously ever so slightly behind Hillary - in the latest poll he still trails her by only 5%. Meaning the average given us by these 4 polls is Christie trailing Hillary by 1.75% - not at all bad by a next state Governor who's been through the whirlwind of a hurricane lately. All other GOPers trail Hillary by double digits however, even using the averages of all 6 state polls conducted. 2nd strongest Republicans are Jeb Bush & Rand Paul, each trailing Hillary by 12.5%. Their "favourite" son Rick Santorum is 14.5% behind, same as for Paul Ryan. The respective numbers are -16.5% for both Marco Rubio & Ted Cruz.

Also, PPP has conducted its 3rd match-up poll in Iowa, making it the 7th 2016 poll of Iowa so far. It's the 6th Iowa poll where Christie has been tried against Hillary. As Christie, unlike in Pennsylvania, is the weakest GOP candidate tried against her this time (of the 4 tested), Hillary's lead against Christie is slightly expanded, from 0.4% to the current 1.3%. Mike Huckabee is the 2nd strongest GOP contender in the state, only trailing Hillary by 4%. Unlike in Pennsylvania, most GOP contenders, including Cruz, are fairly competitive though.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 98.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.0% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. New York: R +5%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled. Yet PPP will poll this state (finally) next week, so hopefully we'll get some fresh numbers then.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%

North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 27.

[eric82oslo]

Christopher Newport University has polled Virginia voters for 2016 match-ups for the first time. Of all pollsters who've polled the state - going as far back as to April 2012 to find the first one - this is the 11th Virginia poll we're including and the 10th one to include Hillary in match-ups as well (the very first one only included Mark Warner). In fact, in the 3 polls where both Hillary and home state Governor turned Senator Warner have both been tested, Mark has fairly easily out-polled Hillary in all three. However, Warner seriously struggles against Christie in the state, just like Hillary does. And the only match-up done between Warner and Christie showed Mark only 1% ahead, which is less than the average Hillary lead her match-ups with the same guy, Christie. With this latest poll, Hillary's lead over Christie has in fact shrunk by a nano size, from 2.5% to 2.4%. In other words, Bridgegate seems not to have influenced the race much at all in this crucial battleground. All the other GOP candidates are trailing Hillary with about 10% or more.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 99.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.4%
+1.5% R improvement
(Updated on March 3, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.0% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. New York: R +5%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled. Yet PPP will poll this state (finally) next week, so hopefully we'll get some fresh numbers then.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.4%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%

North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 3.

[eric82oslo]

Thanks to one and the same polling institute, Siena, we have 3 new state polls out today, covering Virginia (for the 12th time), New Jersey (for the 6th time, I'm not including the Governor race exit poll anymore [simply lost the numbers]) and New York (for the 6th time). As a matter of fact, Christie remains the strongest GOP contender in all 3 states by a substantial margin, yet trails Hillary even more than before in New York and Virginia - down from -25% to -28% in New York. New Jersey however remains unchanged. Hillary's projected national popular vote win stands now at +7.2%, basically the same win as she's currently projected to obtain in the crucial battleground of Florida as well.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 101.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.9%
+3.4% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.3%
10. Maine: R +7%
11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled. Yet PPP will poll this state (finally) next week, so hopefully we'll get some fresh numbers then.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%

North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 4.

[eric82oslo]

And finally it happened. We know how the landscape looks like in the future crucial battleground of Arizona as well. Which means we've now reached a consensus in no less than 27 states - very well! Right now, Arizona is about 8.4% more Republican than the nation as a whole - if we are to believe this poll. However, that margin is likely to shrink even more until election day 2016, since the Arizona demographic is among the 3-5 state demographics changing the quickest these days.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 102.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.9%
+3.5% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.4% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 129 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 60.2% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 39.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +5.75%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.4%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%

North Carolina: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 6.

[eric82oslo]

With the 6th and latest PPP poll of North Carolina, the state has turned into an absolute toss-up. Though in reality, Hillary is the actual leader of the state, since she's lead both Christie as well as any other Republican candidate for at least the past two polls. In fact, Christie is the only Republican in any of the polls to have been ahead of Clinton, yet he has been trailing Hillary by an average of 3.5% in the last two North Carolina polls.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 103.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.9%
+3.6% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.1% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 36.9% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +5.75%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%

North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona and Georgia (both leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 12.

[eric82oslo]

With the 8th 2016 poll from Iowa, including the 4th one from Quinnipiac, we now find major movement towards Hillary in the state. Christie slumps from trailing Hillary by 1.3% on average in the state, to now being 3.0% behind. He still remains undoubtedly the GOP candidate with the best shot though, yet now only from the perspective of levelling out polls over time.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 104.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.8%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.1% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 36.9% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +5.75%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%

North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona and Georgia (both leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 13.

[eric82oslo]

The 7th 2016 poll has been released from Colorado, making it also the 3rd Colorado poll by PPP. Hillary leads all her opponents by at least 3% (at least 7% for all except Rand Paul). On average of all the polls done in Colorado, 3 Republicans are still ahead of Hillary. Paul Ryan now leads the pack (lucky for him he wasn't polled this time) being 3.5% ahead of her. Second is now Christie, still averaging a lead of 1.8% in the state. The third lucky Republican is Rand Paul, squeeking out a tiny lead of 0.6%. The remaining Republicans - Huckabee, Cruz, Bush and Rubio - are all trailing Hillary in Colorado. Thus, since Ryan wasn't included in this poll, Colorado hardly trends for now.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 105.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.8%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 23 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.1% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 36.9% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +5.75%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%

North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona and Georgia (both leaning Republican). If we discard Ryan's lead in Colorado, Colorado could be added as the 8th to close to call state right now.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 27 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 20.

[eric82oslo]

Finally we have a new state which we can happily and proudly add to the list: New Mexico! This state, like in the previous two presidential elections, doesn't even look close at this time. Closest to Hillary is their very own and very popular Governor Susana Martinez, yet even she trails her by a whooping 14%. Even more surprising though, a whole 4 Republicans actually outperform Christie in the state, including - believe it or not - Ted Cruz!

We also got the 12th 2016 poll from Virginia that includes Hillary match-ups. And what it kept showing was that Christie remains far ahead of his Republican competitors, which he has been in all other Virginia 2016 polls as well. However, with this poll added, Christie trails Hillary slightly more now in the state, going down from -3.1% to -3.2%.

Despite Hillary's strong numbers though in these two new polls, her predicted 2016 victory in the nation as a whole however remains unchanged at +7.6%.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 107.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.25%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 200 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 60.8% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +5.75%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%

North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 27.

[eric82oslo]

With Michigan's 7th 2016 match-up poll, Hillary is able to expand further her lead in the state - although not by astronomical values. Her four previous match-ups with Christie in the state were very tight, thus Hillary is only expanding from a +3.75% to a +4.8% lead.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 108.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 200 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 60.8% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%

North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of April 9.

[eric82oslo]

Eric -- you might as well recognize that the pollsters are no longer asking about Paul Ryan as a Presidential candidate. The Colorado poll involving Paul Ryan is very old and now likely irrelevant.

I think that Ryan is seeking power within the House either in leadership on a committee of his choosing or as Speaker of the House. Huckabee seems more relevant to pollsters now.  Rand Paul may excite the Libertarian culture in Colorado enough to make the state close but even he can't give the state to the GOP.  

Last time Ryan was polled in Colorado was February 2 this year, only two months ago, so it's certainly too early to remove him completely. Qunnipiac has included him in their two most recent Colorado polls, while PPP has never included him even once in Colorado.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has just released their 7th North Carolina 2016 match-ups poll, including the 6th straight to include both Christie and Bush. Those are also the two candidates who makes by far the strongest race against Hillary in the state. Hillary has for the very first time opened a lead against all GOP candidates, including a very slim 0.33% lead over Christie. At second best we find Jeb Bush, trailing her by only 2.2% on average.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 109.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & North Carolina (all leaning towards Hillary), as well as Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of April 10.

[eric82oslo]

I'm new here, so this question may sound dumb.

But when you say Christie is "favored" in so-and-so many states, does that mean he leads in the primary in those states or that he performs the best against Hillary in those states?

The last one, that he performs better against Hillary in the state than the other Republican candidates where we have match-ups available.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has released its 4th Texas poll on 2016, Mike Huckabee being included for the very first time in state polling there. Of the 7 GOP candidates who have been tested in Texas, Hillary right now just leads two of them; Rick Perry and Marco Rubio. On average, the 3 strongest GOP contenders in the state seem right now to be Huckabee (+8%), Rand Paul (+7%) and Jeb Bush (+6%). This means that Huckabee replaces Jeb Bush in Texas and that the Republican advantage there increases from +5% to +8%. Which is still, of course, just half as strong a number as Romney managed in 2012. By trumping Bush in the crucial/big state of Texas, Huckabee is now the 3rd best positioned candidate on the Republican side after (still overwhelming favourites) Christie and Bush.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 110.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.3%
+3.6% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & North Carolina (all leaning towards Hillary), as well as Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Mike Huckabee in 2 states (Texas (!) & Louisiana (!))
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of April 18.

[eric82oslo]

The new WomanTrend/the polling company's Iowa 2016 poll is the 8 such in the state, yet only the 2nd one to include Mike Huckabee. The previous GOP best man, Christie, remains unchanged at -3%, yet he has to accept a 2nd position in the state now that Huckabee's average has exceeded him. Huckabee has gone from -4% to his current -1.85% in Iowa. All other GOPers except these two are still far behind Hillary in the state.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 111.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.35%
+3.6% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 15 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Arkansas: D +2%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & North Carolina (all leaning towards Hillary), as well as Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 15 of 28 states (for 179 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 72 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 3 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!) & Iowa (!) - for 52 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado - for 9 EVs)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


Current update as of April 18.

[eric82oslo]

Bruce Braley doesn't have much to do with Hillary though. People aren't that stupid. Besides, this is the most ridiculous so-called "scandal" I've ever come across. There's nothing even slightly scandalous with his statements. It's a storm in a glass of water and not even that.

[eric82oslo]

Two more polls added to the lot yesterday. The one in Colorado (the 8th of the season) didn't really change all that much, since they didn't include Paul Ryan once more. If they keep excluding him from future Colorado polls, I will eventually remove him from the state altogether. Yet we're still 2 1/2 years away, so I'd say no reason to rush for now. Interestingly though, he's not the only one still ahead of Clinton in the state. Both Christie (+1.6%) & Rand Paul (+1.3%) are still ahead of her on average. The 4 remaining candidates are trailing: Rubio by -1.5%, Cruz by -3.2%, Huckabee by -4% and Jeb Bush worst at -6%.

Then we have the PPP poll of Wisconsin, which is "only" the 5th 2016 poll of the state. The state has deteriorated significantly for Republicans in general and for Jeb Bush in particular, who with this catastophical poll (being 11% down) loses his "lead" in the state to Wisconsinite Paul Ryan (who's coincidentially ahead in Colorado as well). This means that Hillary improves her Wisconsin lead from 4% to 5.1%. Bush is 2nd with -7.5%, followed by Christie at -8.1%, Scott Walker at -9.2% and Rand Paul at -9.9%. Huckabee, Rubio & Cruz are all down by horrific double digits (Cruz worst at -16.5%).

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 113.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement
(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: D +1.85%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement
(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.3%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 15 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. Arizona: D +8%
8. Texas: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. It's almost shocking to see how much a switch from Obama to Hillary would mean for the states of Arkansas and Colorado. As of now, Hillary has had more than a 30% better swing in Arkansas than in Colorado, meaning that if current poll averages where to become the actual 2016 outcome, Hillary could actually perform up to 5.5% stronger in Arkansas than Colorado. However, they're not completely compatible as Paul Ryan currently polls best in Colorado, while Christie is ahead in Arkansas.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Michigan: D +4.8%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Arkansas: D +2%
Iowa: D +1.85%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Texas: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 15 of 28 states (for 179 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 3 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!) & Iowa (!) - for 52 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana - for 3 EVs)


Current update as of April 25.