2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

PPP will have a poll of North Carolina this weekend. North Carolina has been an interesting state for the last six years. We might get to add a couple spots on the map. I might have been interested in something else this week... but don't worry. We will have a near surfeit of Presidential polls soon enough.

[pbrower2a]

Mitt Romney has said that he is dropping out of consideration. One of his key campaign strategists went to Jeb Bush, which so suggested.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. mystery meat

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

(Scott "I will give liberals cause to emigrate" Walker reached 11% in a nationwide primary poll by PPP... so he could replace "mystery meat").

[pbrower2a]

This is from April 2014 (PPP)

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Scott
Walker, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 51%
Scott Walker ................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%


Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

(Scott "I will give liberals cause to emigrate" Walker reached 11% in a nationwide primary poll by PPP... so he could replace "mystery meat").

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac -- three electorally big states (FL, OH, PA). This corroborates PPP in the Keystone State and offers valuable information on two states not polled after Election 2014. 

Republicans FLOP against Clinton... get it? I wouldn't use that acronym except with this combination of states. 


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2130

Florida

Clinton 51%
Christie 33%

Clinton 44%
Bush 43%

Clinton 50%
Paul 38%

Clinton 51%
Huckabee 34%

Clinton 50%
Romney 37%

Clinton 49%
Rubio 39%

Ohio

Clinton 47%
Christie 33%

Clinton 47%
Bush 36%

Clinton 48%
Paul 36%

Clinton 49%
Huckabee 34%

Clinton 49%
Romney 37%

Clinton 44%
Kasich 43%

Pennsylvania

Clinton 50%
Christie 39%

Clinton 50%
Bush 35%

Clinton 53%
Paul 34%

Clinton 54%
Huckabee 34%

Clinton 53%
Romney 36%

Clinton 54%
Santorum 34%

...I'm showing Mitt Romney because he may have had indications that he was going to do this badly in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. If he did, then we have some possible insight on why he dropped out of contention.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

This is telling about Mitt Romney (from Q):

14. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     FL     OH     PA
 
Favorable            40%    37%    39%
Unfavorable          46     48     50
Hvn't hrd enough     12     12     10
REFUSED               3      2      2

A 36-36 split on favorability involving Marco Rubio in Florida suggests that he would be vulnerable in a bid for re-election to the US Senate.


 
 

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 44%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 44%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Ben Carson..................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Scott Walker ................................................... 44%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 44%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%

Joe Biden........................................................ 41%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 48%

Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 39%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 47%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


(Scott "I will give liberals cause to emigrate" Walker reached 11% in a nationwide primary poll by PPP... so he could replace "mystery meat").

...No more "mystery meat".

[pbrower2a]

Surprise! Romney would have edged Clinton in North Carolina.   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Granite State/University of New Hampshire/WMUR-TV

Republicans would love to get at least one state in New England. Democrats haven't won the Presidency without New Hampshire since 1976.


Clinton 51% - Bush 39%
Clinton 50% - Paul 40%  

No, they can expect to win nothing to the north and east of the Potomac.  


http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_winter_preselect020915.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire:



The average with a the Granite State/U-New Hampshire/WMUR-TV poll involving Rand Paul comes out to 49. Add Walker, though, in a state with a few similarities to his own state.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, college poll. Eighth state polled, and critical  for 2016.

Republicans would surely like to believe that Virginia will come back to its senses, and that the two Obama wins are simply blips in the state's historical pattern of voting Republican except in Democratic blowouts between 1952 and 2004.


48-43 Clinton vs. Bush

49-42 Clinton vs. Christie

51-42 Clinton vs. Rubio

52-42 Clinton vs. Huckabee

52-42 Clinton vs. Paul

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/Feb%2012%202015%20Report.pdf

Virginia now probably leans Democratic.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

States that I would like to see polled:

Arizona
Colorado
Georgia
Illinois (Senate seat -- Chicago media, this is yours!)
Indiana (lots of luck!)
Kentucky (possible Presidential nominee)
Iowa
Missouri
Oregon (Governor in trouble)
Wisconsin (Senate seat, possible GOP Presidential nominee)

PPP does South Carolina this weekend. What state will Quinnipiac poll this weekend?

So far the Presidential election of 2016 is beginning to look much like the elections of 2008 and 2012. The surprise so far is that three successive Presidential elections could be similar.

...It is remarkable so far that we have no poll of a state west of the Appalachians (southeastern Ohio is Appalachian). But even with a 'mere' eight states one sees a pattern -- that against Hillary Clinton the Republican nominee for President will have a difficult time winning four states (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) that no Republican pol can reasonably win the Presidency without. If on Election night any one of these is called for Hillary Clinton, then the Republican nominee might as well have ready what is usually the finest speech possible -- the concession speech -- available. If any such state is called for Hillary Clinton before 11PM EST, then her supporters can simply await the calling of the states on the West Coast. If the states of the West Coast have just been called for her, then it is only a matter of time before one of these four states runs out of votes to count. 

Two states that must be close if the Republicans are to win the Presidency -- New Hampshire and Pennsylvania -- aren't close. Republican nominees can win without both (Dubya in 2004).       


Democrats other than Hillary Clinton are so far weak in their appeals to America as a whole. Joe Biden has had his chances, and his only remaining chance to be President is if something happens to...

PPP does South Carolina this weekend. South Carolina is fairly similar to the Deep South in politics -- much more than Georgia.  I predict nothing about South Carolina except that if it is at all close, my prediction that the Presidential election of 2016 will look much like those of 2008 and 2012 will be void.

[pbrower2a]

South Carolina and Georgia both are in the deep south...

Southern Georgia is as Deep South as Mississippi. Georgia has Atlanta, which includes a huge part of the state's population and has more in common with Cleveland than with southern Georgia. 

Georgia votes more like Missouri in Presidential elections than like Alabama, at least in recent years. 

[pbrower2a]

Marist -- IA, NH, SC.

First poll west of the Mississippi, and if you don't like the Marist poll of SC, then there will be one by PPP which will likely have more binary choices.

Marist poll of Iowa:

http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/iowa_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf

Clinton 48%
Bush 40%

Clinton 49%
Walker 38%

Marist poll of NH:

http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/new_hampshire_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf

Clinton 48%
Bush 42%

Clinton 49%
Walker 42%

Marist poll of SC:

http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/south_carolina_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf

Bush 48%
Clinton 45%

Clinton 46%
Walker 46%



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

The big one is Iowa. Just about any Republican nominee is going to win South Carolina. Of course, that South Carolina is so close suggests that Georgia is in play... but I will not call tht until I see it.

With the poll of Iowa I can predict that not only would Hillary Clinton win Iowa; she would also win Minnesota easily and Wisconsin. Iowa is politically similar to Wisconsin; sure, they voted on opposite sides in 2004, but both by razor-sharp margins.

Scott Walker fares no better than Jeb Bush in Iowa, so any spillover of Walker support from Wisconsin (where he would be a Favorite Son) is weak.

The only state that either Bush or Walker has a strong chance of winning north of the Ohio and of the Potomac is Indiana.   

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey -- Rutgers/Eagleton. Most significantly this is the fifth state since November 2014 in which Scott Walker has been polled. This may not be the most reliable pollster, but anyone who now or still sees New Jersey in play for any Republican nominee for President in 2016 lives in a fantasy world.

58-35 Clinton/Christie

58-32 Clinton/Bush

60-29 Clinton/Walker


http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rep-clinton2016-feb2015

I wouldn't make much of the shade difference between Walker and either Bush or Christie as it reflects a difference of only 2% -- but Scott Walker is not bringing fresh energy to the Republican chances of winning the Presidency in 2016.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Q, 6AM: Virginia, Iowa, and Colorado. We shall see how good the Marist poll is for Iowa and the college poll is for Virginia.

Quinnipiac polls CO, IA, and VA:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2149

Colorado

Clinton 43%
Paul 41%

Clinton 43%
Christie 34%

Clinton 44%
Bush 36%

Clinton 42%
Walker 40%

Clinton 44%
Huckabee 39%

Iowa

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 38%

Clinton 45%
Paul 37%

Clinton 44%
Christie 34%

Clinton 45%
Bush 35%

Clinton 45%
Walker 35%

Virginia

Bush 42%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 44%
Paul 42%

Clinton 44%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 44%
Christie 39%

Clinton 45%
Walker 40%

(I have averages for Virginia).

Eleven states now.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

We have eleven states polled, seven of them legitimate swing states.  (NJ, NY, PA, and SC are not).

States that I would like to see polled:

Arizona
Arkansas (Huckabee vs. Hillary Clinton)
Georgia
Illinois (Senate seat)
Kansas (is the GOP in disarray there?)
Missouri
Nevada
Oregon (aftermath of Kitzhaber trouble)
Wisconsin (Walker, Senate seat)

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas (Huckabee vs. Hillary Clinton)
Kansas (is the GOP in disarray there?)

Arkansas: Huckabee would win decisively
Kansas: No, the GOP is NOT in disarray there. National politics ≠ state politics

Huckabee would win Arkansas. Everybody else?
Kansas -- 2014 suggests trouble. 

[pbrower2a]

Best case based on current polling for Bush and Walker (Christie, Paul, and Huckabee -- you don't want to see it if you are one of their supporters):

Hillary Clinton red plus green -- against Jeb Bush blue plus yellow

Hillary Clinton red plus yellow -- against Scott Walker blue plus green

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 49%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%
Chris Christie .................................................. 43%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 49%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 43%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Scott Walker ................................................... 46%

I'm averaging the polls with those by Marist for her against Bush and Walker... Hillary Clinton will not win South Carolina. Those involving her against Christie, Huckabee, and Paul are obviously not averages. Weaknesses of Christie and Paul in South Carolina show how weak those two are in the South. Christie is as much a d@mnyankee as Obama, and Paul is too much of a libertarian for the authoritarian White South to win by Reagan-like margins.   

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

The first blue state is appearing on the map...Every beginning is difficult.

Selection bias in favor of "battleground" states... and the fact that most of them lean Clinton. I expect at most one poll from Alabama, Texas, or Wyoming. I don't expect to see much polling from Minnesota, Rhode Island, or Vermont either.     

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Gravis... not that it is a reliable pollster.

44-39 Clinton/Paul
45-40 Clinton/Huckabee
47-41 Clinton/Walker
43-37 Clinton/Bush
45-35 Clinton/Christie

http://gravismarketing.com/uncategorized/iowa-poll-walker-garners-24-of-gop-support-paul-clinton-beats-walker-others-head-to-head

It wouldn't change the map anyway.

[pbrower2a]

Nearly one fourth of all states polled.

Missouri, by someone whom I do not know:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 https://20poundsofheadlines.wordpress.com/2015/02/20/poll-hillary-trails-3-gop-contenders-in-missouri/

You can trust that there will be more polls.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

It seems as if the Romney states will remain in the GOP column in 2016 barring a blowout.

Basically, with the possible exceptions of Arizona and Georgia, the states that have not voted for Obama in 2008 are Safe R. That obviously will not be enough  to allow a Republican 'recovery' of the Presidency.  

[pbrower2a]

Yellow -- too close to call
Gray -- no cause to call

NE-02 is 'no cause to call'.