2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

For what it's worth, Gravis, Montana.

Bush (R)- 45%
Clinton (D)- 36%

Paul (R)- 46%
Clinton (D)- 38%

Ryan (R)- 51%
Clinton (D)- 37%


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut, PPP. We have little polling for New England. The pattern of 2008 and 2010 suggests that the best that a Republican nominee can hope for in Connecticut is just under 40%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/malloy-leads-by-8-in-connecticut-governors-race.html

49/39 over Christie (+10)
50/37 over Bush (+13)
53/34 over Huckabee (+19)
54/35 over Paul (+19)
54/32 over Cruz (+22)


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

I am really not worried about Hilary. These polls are 2 years out and name recognition has a lot to do with her success in the polls. Democrats have to admit that. When was the last time polls were accurate 2 years in advance of a Presidential election?

Polls cannot predict economic meltdowns, military or diplomatic disasters, bungled responses to natural disasters, personal scandals, or cultural changes to the detriment of the current leader.

I am aware of a projection from 2006 that showed Barack Obama losing in a landslide. Of course, the economy had yet to go into a tailspin and the full nastiness of the Iraq war had yet to show. It also did not show shat sort of campaigner Barack Obama would be. 

[pbrower2a]

Georgia, PPP:

Vs Jeb Bush: 44-45 (R +1%)

Vs Rand Paul: 47-44 (D +3%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 48-45 (D +3%)
Vs Herman Cain: 48-45 (D +3%)
Vs Chris Christie: 46-41 (D +5%)
Vs Ted Cruz: 47-41 (D +6%)
Vs Newt Gingrich: 49-43 (D +6%)

More details here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/republicans-lead-in-georgia-but-senate-race-close.html#more


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

When the new president gets elected in 2016 what will Obama's next job be? Not that it's too early to ask.

For Republicans, the safest place for him as an ex-President (short of a grave) will be a seat on the US Supreme Court. Otherwise he is "President Emeritus", wielding political influence for a couple of decades so long as he is healthy. Even with his warts, Richard Nixon did that. He won't be a veritable recluse as Dubya has been, appearing in public only at games of the Texas Rangers with Nolan Ryan at his side.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Des Moines Register/Selzer

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-10-11/bloombergdes-moines-register-iowa-poll-republicans-within-striking-distance-of-hillary-clinton

(against) Ryan 44/43, Paul 44/41, Jeb 46/39, Rubio 46/37, Christie 46/38, Cruz 45/35.

Huckabee not mentioned.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Georgia is potential big trouble for the GOP in 2016, and although it is in the same category it looks far worse for Republicans as a whole. Connecticut now has polls for more than one choice, and what I suspect to be so there looks realized.   

Add the latest Iowa poll.
  

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  60
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[pbrower2a]

Florida. University poll.

http://polls.saintleo.edu/hillary-clinton-continues-to-maintain-lead-in-2016-field/

Clinton 49
Christie 34

Clinton 53
Bush 33

Clinton 53
Rubio 30

Clinton 54
Paul 30

Clinton 54
Cruz 27

....This suggests the strongest electoral performance by any Democratic nominee in Florida since the 1940s.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Kansas, PPP. All against Hillary Clinton.

Vs Ted Cruz: 41-44 (R +3%)
Vs Chris Christie: 38-42 (R +4%)
Vs Rand Paul: 40-45 (R +5%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 41-47 (R +6%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 37-48 (R +11%)

 http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/key-races-tighten-in-kansas.html#more

For a state that Republican nominees usually win by 60-40 margins, this is weak.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Gravis, Maryland
Hillary...
Vs Paul Ryan: 51-36 (D +15%)
Vs Rand Paul: 51-34 (D +17%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 52-35 (D +17%)

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-maryland-polling

No surprise there!

New Mexico, also from Gravis:

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-new-mexico-polling/


Match ups:

Hillary vs Rand Paul: 49-36 (D +13%)
Hillary vs Jeb Bush: 50-36 (D +14%)

Kentucky, Gravis (with only one relevant matchup)
 http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/october-kentucky-polling-of-likely-voters/

It features only two 2016 match-ups:

Rand Paul vs Hillary Clinton: 48-45 (R +3%)
Rand Paul vs Elizabeth Warren: 49-36 (R +13%)

Idaho, PPP:

Vs Chris Christie: 33-44 (R +11%)
Vs Ted Cruz: 34-50 (R +16%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 33-50 (R +17%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 34-52 (R +18%)
Vs Rand Paul: 33-52 (R +19%)

More here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/idaho-governors-race-close-but-otter-has-room-to-grow.html

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

As if Maryland (which has not voted for a Republican nominee for President since the 1950s aside from two 49-state blowouts) offers any mystery on how it will go in 2016... It has been polled on the 2016 election for the first time.  

Idaho apparently will vote for any Republican who does not pose the overt danger of provoking thermonuclear war, although that was very close in 1964.

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  60
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[pbrower2a]

Its telling that the Hillary vs. Best Republican map is roughly equivalent to Obama's 2012 win.  Not only that, but there is no 'best' Republican who does this well in every state.  All the candidates have strengths and weaknesses and fall short of this ideal scenario.

There just isn't much wiggle room for any Republican. I find it hard to believe that Hillary could do better than any Democratic nominee in Florida since FDR in 1944, and I can't imagine it as anything other than a swing state in 2016. 

[pbrower2a]

Hillary 47 Kasich 43
Hillary 48 Bush 38
Hillary 46 Christie 39
Hillary 49 Perry 39
Hillary 49 Paul 40

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/31/fox-news-poll-ohio-governors-race/

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

No change to the general projection, although these decisive leads would be a disaster for the GOP. Out of politeness at this stage I keep showing Ohio as a legitimate swing state.

[pbrower2a]

It looks like mainstream Republicans do worse against Hillary, not better.

Define "mainstream". The GOP has gone from center-right conservatism (Nixon era) to full-bore support of a plutocratic oligarchy. It has become largely the political arm of the powerful Koch family, and it reflects one of the most reactionary currents in the free world.

[pbrower2a]

First post-election poll in 2014:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.businessweek.com/pdfs/bloomberg-saint-anselm-purple-NH-survey-Q1-to-Q9-11-2014.pdf

Bloomberg is about as reputable a journalistic source as there is, and Hillary Clinton shows no sign of taking a hit from the GOP wave. Republicans will need a similar wave to win the Presidency or to hold the US Senate.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

No change to the general projection, although these decisive leads would be a disaster for the GOP. Out of politeness at this stage I keep showing Ohio as a legitimate swing state.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina:

Clinton- 46%
Bush- 46%

Clinton- 44%
Carson- 44%

Clinton- 44%
Christie- 42%

Clinton- 46%
Huckabee- 44%

Quinnipiac, New Jersey:

50-39 Hillary/Christie
52-35 Hillary/Romney
53-31 Hillary/Bush
55-31 Hillary/Paul

Favorables:

58-35 Hillary
45-47 Christie
25-32 Paul
25-35 Bush
36-48 Romney

Obama approval:

46-50 disapprove

From December 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,340 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2118

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

No change to the general projection, although these decisive leads would be a disaster for the GOP. Out of politeness at this stage I keep showing Ohio as a legitimate swing state.

[pbrower2a]

It's actually Clinton 46, Huckabee 44.

Map changed accordingly. Thank you.

North Carolina is an absolute must-win for the GOP in 2016 for both the Presidency and the Senate.

[pbrower2a]

New York, Quinnipiac, yawn. Fourth state since the 2014 election.


Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Gov. Cuomo both top leading Republican contenders in New York State in an early look at the 2016 presidential campaign. Clinton is up:

    60 - 29 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    61 - 26 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    57 - 31 percent over New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie.

Clinton's leads range from 14 to 24 percentage points among men and 36 to 44 percentage points among women.

Cuomo tops leading Republicans by smaller margins:

    51 - 31 percent over Jeb Bush;
    56 - 28 percent over Paul;
    49 - 35 percent over Christie.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

No change to the general projection, although these decisive leads would be a disaster for the GOP. Out of politeness at this stage I keep showing Ohio as a legitimate swing state.

[pbrower2a]

PPP will be polling the state in which Erie is in the northwestern corner (so written so that I can avoid excessive alliteration).

Yes, it's Pennsylvania. Plenty to poll. First of 2015, fifth state after the 2014 election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/01/pennsylvania-question-suggestions.html#comments

[pbrower2a]

I am bringing back this material on a State that rarely gets polled -- Indiana:



Indiana usually says something; it is about 10% more R than the rest of America in almost every Presidential election. Barack Obama campaigned heavily in Indiana and sank vast resources into the state to win it in 2008 and did not do so in 2012. He lost it by 10% in 2012 -- which should be a huge disappointment. Right?

Year     margin   

2012       10R
2008         1D
2004       21R
2000       16R
1996         6R*
1992         6R*
1988       20R
1984       24R
1980       18R*
1976         8R
1972       33R
1968       12R*
1964       12D
1960       10R
1956       20R
1952       17R
1948         1R
1944         7R
1940         1R

*Independent or third-party nominee may have had an effect. Bold is for the Democratic nominee winning the state. Bold indicates that the Democratic nominee won the state. Dark shades indicate electoral blowouts. Red -- the Democrat won the Presidential election in electoral and popular votes. Blue -- the Republican won the Presidential election in electoral and popular votes. Purple -- split on electoral and popular votes.

Wrong. Barack Obama campaigned extensively in Indiana in 2008 and won it -- and was effective enough in winning a raft of states that neither Gore nor Kerry won. He stayed out of Indiana in 2012 and lost it because he needed a laser focus on a small number of states that could decide the election. If he was going to win Indiana he was going to win Ohio anyway, but Ohio was easier for him to win against an opponent who could have overpowered him with campaign funds.   

Indiana has gone for the Republican nominee for President in 18 of the last 20 chances. This goes back to two elections involving FDR. Democratic nominees have won the popular vote 9 times and the Presidency 8 times -- and Republican nominees have won the popular vote 11 times and the Presidency 12 times.

The Republicans seem unable to win the Presidency if the Democrat loses the state by less than 11%. If Indiana votes by more than 11% for the Republican, then the Republican wins at the least the Electoral College (which is everything).

If you see the Republican nominee winning Indiana early in 2016 on Election Day but by a comparatively-small margin (let us say 7%), then it will be a bad night for the GOP.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, PPP. If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, then the road to a Republican Presidency is not the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Romney could win against Biden or Warren, though. 

Clinton -49%
Christie- 39%

Clinton- 49%
Bush- 38%

Clinton- 51%
Carson- 37%

Clinton- 51%
Huckabee- 39%

Clinton- 50%
Paul- 39%

Clinton- 50%
Romney- 40%

Clinton- 52%
Santorum- 36%

Romney- 43%
Biden- 41%

Romney- 44%
Warren- 36%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_122925.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

No change to the general projection, although these decisive leads would be a disaster for the GOP. Out of politeness at this stage I keep showing Ohio as a legitimate swing state.


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Using only polls following the 2014 election, and I add Mitt Romney with the expectation that someone will drop out of consideration.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Q, New Jersey. This supplants a post-election poll.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2127

Clinton 52%
Christie 39%

Clinton 53%
Bush 37%

Clinton 54%
Paul 35%

Clinton 56%
Huckabee 33%

Clinton 53%
Romney 38%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

I suspect that Chris Christie will be the one being dropped.

There was supposed to be a meeting between Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney.

[pbrower2a]

Polls that I would most like to see (and figure are likely to be shown):

1. Florida. We can decide once and for all whether Marco Rubio has any relevancy to the Presidential campaign.

2. Ohio. Has voted right in every Presidential election since 1960.

3. Colorado. Terribly ambiguous in 2014.

4. Wisconsin. Is Scott Walker a genuine possibility?

5. Nevada. Is Harry Reid holding his ground politically?

6. Georgia. A campaign-killer for any Republican who loses this state -- and there is an obvious choice to challenge Isakson.

7. Missouri. We can see whether Hillary Clinton can win back some Clinton-but-not-Obama voters there. It has potentially a weak Senate incumbent. Surprisingly similar to Georgia in its voting habits, but six fewer electoral votes than Georgia.

8. New Hampshire. How well is Kelly Ayotte doing in a D-leaning state? If she loses her seat, then the Democrats are nearly sure to end up with an effective majority in the Senate because the Vice-President will be the President of the Senate and have the deciding vote.

9. Virginia. No Sen ate seat, but very close to being the tipping-point state for the Presidency.

10. Indiana. Lots of luck on getting a reliable Indiana poll. If Indiana is a 10-point or less loss for the Democratic Presidential nominee, then the Democrat wins. 

Tie for 11 -- and highly contingent -- Arizona (in case the health of John McCain goes bad) or Iowa (likewise for Chuck Grassley).