2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Quinnipiac.

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2055

Hillary Clinton is slipping a little in Iowa, at least from its last poll of Iowa.  She would likely win the state more by an Obama 2012 level than by the landslide margins projected earlier.

I do not extrapolate unless some event causes one to question the overall competence or credibility of a political figure.   
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Maybe Field will slip in a poll of California. No big surprises would be likely -- but the state has 55 electoral votes.

[pbrower2a]

PPP poll of Michigan:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/07/michigan-miscellany.html

Clinton 47%
Bush 37%

Clinton 48%
Christie 35%

Clinton 50%
Cruz 34%

Clinton 48%
Huckabee 36%

Clinton 47%
Paul 37%
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, nationwide (and ugly for Republicans):

In the 2016 presidential race, American voters back Hillary Clinton over leading Republican contenders:

    47 - 38 percent over Christie;
    49 - 40 percent over Paul;
    49 - 40 percent over Huckabee;
    48 - 41 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2058


 

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Louisiana

Jeb Bush......................................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 46%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Chris Christie .................................................. 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Bobby Jindal ................................................... 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_LA_702.pdf

It now looks as if almost all the gains that the Republicans have made with Louisiana voters beginning in 2000 have evaporated. The two leads shown by Republicans are razor-thin and unreliable.

Hillary Clinton seems to have kept just about every voter that Barack Obama picked up for 2012 while not being so polarizing in the South. I am satisfied that there is more to her campaign in 2016 than nostalgia for a better time.    
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

PPP is polling Mississippi this week and Colorado next week. Both should be extremely interesting.

No Democratic nominee for President has won Mississippi since 1976 (Carter); the conditions in which Carter won Mississippi are long past.

The state that would really be interesting is Tennessee.

[pbrower2a]

Four states polled, three of them legitimate swing states, and Mississippi gives some interesting results:

Marist, New Hampshire:

Clinton 47% Christie 42%
Clinton 47% Bush 42%
Clinton 46% Paul 43%
Clinton 48% Walker 39%
Clinton 51% Cruz 38%
Clinton 47%  Rubio 42%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrats-ready-hillary-everyone-else-not-much-n157821

Iowa (Marist)

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http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrats-ready-hillary-everyone-else-not-much-n157821

Mississippi (PPP)

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_MS_717.pdf

Colorado, Quinnipiac

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2060  
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

I can make some conclusions:

1. Colorado and Iowa are at best shaky for Hillary Clinton.

2. New Hampshire is probably not a swing state.

3. Mississippi shows that the R stranglehold on Southern politics is weakening. 

Mississippi margins in Presidential elections:

2012   12%
2008   13%
2004   19%
2000   17%
1996     5%
1992     9%
1988   21%
1984   24%
1980     1%
1976     2%

It may be hard to believe now, but Carter came close to winning Mississippi despite a nationwide drubbing. Bill Clinton, like Jimmy Carter, was a Southern moderate running against a Yankee.

Mississippi may be reverting to its old norms in partisan identity, or partisanship could be eroding there. I cannot discern which trend is in effect in Mississippi; such cannot be told in two polls.

Missouri and Tennessee would be interesting.  With 10 and 11 electoral votes at stake in those states, those two states are not trivialities. 

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

[pbrower2a]

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest: 

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012 75
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 56
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12

The controversial ones are Missouri (Georgia now looks like a good analogue for Missouri with KC + STL = ATL; it's about half Iowa and half Arkansas, which both register as ties), Tennessee (which I am placing politically about halfway between Georgia and Mississippi or Georgia and Kentucky). Until I see commanding evidence to the contrary I practically define Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia as swing states. I'm giving ND as more solidly R than SD because of the boom in natural gas in North Dakota. Indiana? NE-02? Go figure.
 
I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012. 

[pbrower2a]

Survey USA, Florida

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.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9879b1f3-f54d-4ae5-ba27-5a1b5207710a
 
Nothing on Huckabee, but we have plenty of polls involving him.

If Florida is a quick call for the Democrat, then the election is settled.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Roanoake College

Hillary Clinton holds significant and very similar leads over Republicans Chris Christie (44%-34%), Rand Paul (47%-37%), and Paul Ryan (47%-38%).

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/News_Archive/RC_Poll_July_2014_Election_poll.htm

There's a partial poll by Gravis Marketing for right-wing Human Events, showing Jeb Bush up 49-39 on Hillary Clinton. It would change nothing even if I accepted it.


Nothing on Huckabee or Jeb Bush, but we have plenty of polls involving him.

If Virginia is a quick call for the Democrat, then the election is settled.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Now that the Senate and Gubernatorial races in Georgia are set, we ought to see some polls from Georgia.

[pbrower2a]

Florida voters back Clinton over Bush 49 - 42 percent in the 2016 White House race. The Democrat tops other Republicans by wider margins:

    53 - 39 percent over Rubio;
    53 - 37 percent over Paul;
    54 - 33 percent over Christie;
    51 - 38 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

Independent voters back Clinton over Bush by a narrow 45 - 41 percent. Against other Republicans, her lead among independent voters is 16 to 20 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2063

This is beyond belief. This suggests a complete political collapse by the Republican Party in Florida, which suggests a complete collapse by the Republican Party nationwide. I can at best say that I suspend my acceptance of this poll. Recent polls show Hillary Clinton up 5% or so in Florida.

The 54-33 lead over Christie looks like a misprint; I might believe 54-43. I would need to see corroboration in other states. Recent polls in Florida show Hillary Clinton up by 5% or so over non-joke candidates (Cruz, Santorum, Rubio) in Florida. She's not above 50% in such states as Minnesota, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

If she is up 10% and near 50% in states generally similar to Florida in voting patterns (Ohio is the only good analogue for Florida) I can accept this. No way is Florida one of the strongest-D states in America. If it were, then Governor Rick Scott would be crashing and burning.

Of course, now that the primary contests for the Republicans are settled in Georgia, we could be seeing some corroboration.

No change-- for now.

     

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac is a well regarded and longtime pollster that was closest to the actual result in Florida in 2012. I'm not sure why you'd ignore them just because you think it's an outlier.

It is a severe outlier by Q standards. 

I know! Hillary Clinton seems highly likely to win the state, but perhaps by 5% over one of the stronger R candidates. A margin greater than 10% suggests that

(1) Florida has become about as strong a D state as Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania,  which makes no sense in view of recent polls -- some available within the last couple of weeks. If Florida were that strongly D, then Governor Rick Scott would be staring into a landslide loss, which he is not doing even in a Q poll of the Governorship.

(2) Hillary Clinton has basically revived the Jimmy Carter coalition and grafted it onto the Obama coalition. For that to make sense I would need to see Clinton winning just about everything in the South. Carter won the state by 5% in 1976 (his fifteenth-best state); Obama won it by less than 3% in 2008. Florida has usually been a tough state for Democratic Presidential nominees to win; it was the second-weakest win for LBJ in 1964. Bill Clinton, the strongest Democratic nominee since LBJ in a Presidential election, barely lost it in 1992 and won it by 6% in 1996. We know about Florida in 2000.


Possible -- but not likely. It's not likely to contradict recent polls.

(3) Something has happened, all of a sudden, to mess up Republican chances for election or re-election nationwide. Has anyone seen anything to create such an effect? Such would show in approval ratings for President Obama, which remain awful. The Malaysian jetliner being shot down is just about neutral news for American politics.

(4) International concerns have begun to trump other concerns, and Hillary Clinton is in an excellent position to become  more desirable. Q shows the favorability of Hillary Clinton very stable -- and so are the ratings of favorability for potential R rivals. There is nothing there.  The downing of the Malaysian jetliner in dangerous airspace is just about neutral news for American politics. 

Barack Obama's approval rating in Florida is in the range in which, were he running for re-election, he would barely win the state again. 

Quinnipiac is usually one of my preferred pollsters, in view of its prior achievements, but this time the results seem terribly out of line. We can count on seeing frequent polls about Florida hereon. In fact, I expect to see lots of polls from neighboring Georgia  from now until November because of hotly-contested Gubernatorial and Senate races. Show Hillary Clinton up 5% against just about everyone in Georgia, and I will accept this Q poll. Show another pollster concurring with these results and I will accept it.

Pollsters can have bad days -- or bad samples -- any day. That includes Quinnipiac, which rarely has them.

If you want my assessment of the 2016 Presidential election so far -- Hillary Clinton has gone from being marginally qualified to be President in 2008 to being one of the strongest candidates that we have known for a long time. Should she win Florida 55-45 she wins nationwide at least 58-42 with over 400 electoral votes -- 440 if she gets Texas, which would probably be the closest state in that scenario.

[pbrower2a]

Gravis Marketing, Kentucky:

This one matches both Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren against Rand Paul in Kentucky.

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Kentucky did vote for Bill Clinton. But this said, a marginal win of 6% for a Favorite Son in an R-leaning state would not bode well. The Favorite Son effect is worth about 10% in most Presidential elections (OK, Obama outdid Kerry in Massachusetts between 2004 and 2008) whether for winners or losers as Presidential nominees. That is the difference between Dole and Bush in Texas (1996 and 2000) and between Bush and McCain in Texas (2004 and 2008).  I'm not saying that Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Mike Huckabee loses Kentucky.

This poll suggests more than anything else that Rand Paul would be an unusually-weak Republican nominee for President. He would win Kentucky, but he might lose Indiana.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Colorado

Leading 41/40 over Jeb Bush
Leading 45/39 over Chris Christie
Leading 44/43 over Ted Cruz
Leading 45/43 over Mike Huckabee
Trailing 44/45 to Rand Paul

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/COMiscResults.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Ohio'

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2066

Not at all suspect. Q is a good pollster. The Florida poll by Q still looks anomalous, and the Ohio poll does nothing to convince me that Florida will offer an easy victory for Hillary Clinton.  I am more likely to believe that the Ohio poll is right for both Florida and Ohio.

The Democratic nominee has not won Florida by a double-digit margin or even a high-single-digit margin since 1948, when Florida really was a Southern state.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Harper (R), Nevada:

Clinton (D) 47%
Paul (R) 44%

Clinton (D) 46%
Bush (R) 41%

Clinton (D) 48%
Martinez (R) 35%

http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/poll-sandoval-would-defeat-reid-double-digits#.U9ptJ_l_vUU
http://cdn.ralstonreports.com/sites/default/files/HP%2014.07%20NV%20Memo.pdf

Limited results from an R pollster, but it is all that we have in Nevada so far. It corroborates the poor performance of Hillary Clinton in Colorado at least according to early polling. Harper must not take either Christie or Huckabee seriously.

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  Nevada is 'new' to polling, and it shows a surprise even if the poll is by an R pollster. Under the circumstances, beggars can't be choosers.  

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12

The controversial ones are Missouri (Georgia now looks like a good analogue for Missouri with KC + STL = ATL; it's about half Iowa and half Arkansas, which both register as ties), Tennessee (which I am placing politically about halfway between Georgia and Mississippi or Georgia and Kentucky). Until I see commanding evidence to the contrary I practically define Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia as swing states. I'm giving ND as more solidly R than SD because of the boom in natural gas in North Dakota. Indiana? NE-02? Go figure.
 
I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012. 

[pbrower2a]

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http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/california-statewide-polling/

Talk about limited! Only two matchups, and only one of them has any relevance to this polling thread. But it does account for 10.2% of the electoral votes in the US. Like it or not it fills a gap.

Libertarians are a loud lot in California, but they also have a clear ceiling. I guess that Paul would not rise much from 40% of the vote share. Hillary Clinton will not lose California. I do not change my projection that she would get anything less than 55% of the vote -- heck, President Obama on this poll has a 48% approval rating in California, which is surely one of the highest.  

Most R voters in California are Libertarians, so I can't imagine Christie, Bush, or Huckabee faring any better.    

  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas now seems to be a quixotic quest for 2016 for Hillary, according to PPP:

Bush 46%
Clinton 41%

Christie 42%
Clinton 41%

Cruz 46%
Clinton 42%

Huckabee 55%
Clinton 39%


Paul 45%
Clinton 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_806513.pdf

Q fills some holes for New Jersey:

50% Clinton
42% Christie

54% Clinton
34% Bush

55% Clinton
35% Paul

57% Clinton
34% Huckabee


From July 31 - August 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,148 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2068  



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Adjusting for Arkansas.

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:

Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut, Gravis. Internet poll, so beware, and only one matchup between Hillary Clinton and anyone with legislative experience. One gap miserably filled. No Republican nominee has a real chance of winning Connecticut, which is about the only conclusion I can get.   

It's the first one on Connecticut, and any fresh poll on Connecticut will be welcome. Q, perhaps, in view of the gubernatorial race?

Clinton (D)- 45%
Carson (R)- 36%

Clinton (D)- 48%
Paul (R)- 33%

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/connecticut-polling-data-august-2014/



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Alaska:


Hillary vs Palin: 46/40 (D +6%)
Hillary vs Huckabee: 39/47 (R +8%)
Hillary vs Bush: 38/47 (R +9%)
Hillary vs Christie: 34/45 (R +11%)
Hillary vs Rand Paul: 36/50 (R +14%)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/08/alaskans-remain-down-on-palin.html#more


That's a bigger change than the map shows.

Also, Rutgers-Eagleton in New Jersey, with only one binary choice (Christie-Clinton):

Clinton 51%, Christie 40%, rest don't know or someone else.

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/new-wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/release_08-07-14.pdf

No obvious change.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more