2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

There just aren't that many arguable swing states not now polled.

I would guess that having been Governor of Arkansas matter far more than does having been First Lady of the State, so I would guess that Mike Huckabee would win the state.  I see no cause to believe that Paul Ryan will run for President in 2016; he seems more interested in gaining power within the House of Representatives. So Colorado goes to Clinton.

Using green for unpolled states almost certain to go R and using orange for unpolled states almost certain to go D, and I get (pastel green and orange)

I have no idea on either Indiana or Missouri, and NE-02 would be in doubt.

It looks like a replay of 2008 except with Indiana and Missouri undecided.

 

[pbrower2a]

The Washington Free Beacon is a very right-wing journal.  So beware.

Here is an interesting piece of polling. I had a desire to see how Scott Walker, Governor of neighboring Wisconsin (a state demographically similar to Iowa) would do in Iowa:

45.9% HILLARY CLINTON
40.4% SCOTT WALKER

He'd have his work cut out. As shown in 2000, a Republican nominee can win without Iowa,  but the state is close enough to the national average that Iowa has to be within the margin of error.

PPP will probably ask how Hillary Clinton does against Walker in Wisconsin.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Colorado:

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Also relevant:

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That is far out of touch with the 2012 election in Colorado. Lower approval than in Louisiana?



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2034


Possible caveats:

1. Quinnipiac may undercount the large Hispanic part of the Colorado electorate. I have seen that before.

2. Colorado has a very loud libertarian current in political discourse (much like California) but that has usually proved ineffective at election time since 2006.

But at those two, I am arguing the dynamics of the election before it happens.

Quinnipiac is good elsewhere and polls Colorado in good faith, so I can't dispute it.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

So why is Hillary doing so badly in Colorado with Quinnipiac?

Could it be that Q, which seems to be reasonable enough everywhere else, is badly off on Colorado? Maybe its polls undercount Hispanics? Nobody has that problem with Q in Florida, which it does poll often. It could be something else.


Q has a good model for a midterm election. It has Udall barely leading in a hot Senate race -- but it does have him leading. It also has President Obama with an approval rating in the high 30s, which looks much unlike the 2012 (and 2016) electorate.

But that model depresses the D vote, and using it for 2016 may be questionable.  So if you are involved heavily with politics as a narrative, which election are you looking at more closely  -- the November election this year or November 2016?

OK -- with a midterm electorate, Hillary Clinton probably loses Colorado.   

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Wisconsin

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 51%
Scott Walker ................................................... 44%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 39%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 38%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Chris Christie .................................................. 36%


Note that the two possible Favorite Sons (Scott Walker and Paul Ryan) fare badly in their home state. So much for the idea that Walker has developed a huge crossover vote in Wisconsin that can inspire Republicans to cast their support to him.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Florida.


49 - 41 percent over Bush;
52 - 40 percent over Rubio;
55 - 37 percent over Paul;
52 - 34 percent over Christie;
56 - 36 percent over Ryan;
57 - 31 percent over Cruz;
53 - 35 percent over Huckabee

Devastating. If Q seemed to unduly exaggerate R chances in Colorado, it may have underestimated them by a similar amount in Florida based on polls released this week.

Republican nominees for President cannot now win without Florida.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

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- See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/#sthash.wvtqh5EJ.dpuf

In case anyone was wondering whether the leads in polls that Hillary Clinton had in Arkansas last year were real -- we now have some corroboration.  This state could be trouble for Republicans of all kinds in 2016.

Republicans can't win the presidency without Arkansas, either, and they are not going to win the Presidency while winning Arkansas by only 3%.  The Favorite Son effect obviously is stronger with an ex-Governor than with an ex-First Lady of the State... 



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

I'm not using the Dartmouth poll -- too many undecided. Do you remember the polls from the summer of 2008 that showed Barack Obama up 43-41 or so in North and South Dakota? Of course. Obama would top out around 46% in those states.   

New Hampshire could easily be a mirror image of such.

[pbrower2a]

There just aren't that many arguable swing states not now polled.

I would guess that having been Governor of Arkansas matter far more than does having been First Lady of the State, so I would guess that Mike Huckabee would win the state.  I see no cause to believe that Paul Ryan will run for President in 2016; he seems more interested in gaining power within the House of Representatives. So Colorado goes to Clinton.

Using green for unpolled states almost certain to go R and using orange for unpolled states almost certain to go D, and I get (pastel green and orange)

I have no idea on either Indiana or Missouri, and NE-02 would be in doubt.

It looks like a replay of 2008 except with Indiana and Missouri undecided.

 

Even this understates Democratic chances. The potential nominee who wins Arkansas loses Arizona, and vice-versa. A Republican nominee for President can afford to lose neither state.

Arkansas looks like less of a loss than Arizona, but although Arkansas has five fewer electoral votes, Arkansas has plenty of political analogues. If you look at the five states that Bill Clinton won twice and Obama lost by huge margins twice (AR, KY, LA, TN, WV), you notice 38 electoral votes -- as much as Texas. These states are demographically similar to Arkansas.

To some extent that neglects Georgia and Missouri, which could also be GOP disasters.   

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_514.pdf

Mostly within the margin of error, and all likely wins for Hillary Clinton. That said, any Republican nominee for President would be in trouble if he were winning North Carolina by less than the margin of error.




Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Alaska:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/05/alaska-miscellany.html#more

Alaska could be close in 2016.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Lots of matchups in a swing state. Republicans have their work cut out for them if they are to deliver the key 18 electoral votes of Ohio.

47 - 42 percent over Ohio Gov. John Kasich (+5)
48 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin (+7)
47 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida (+7)
49 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky (+8)
46 - 38 percent over N.J. Gov. Christopher Christie (+8)
49 - 41 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (+8)
48 - 39 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (+9)
51 - 37 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (+14)

From May 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,174 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2042


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

SurveyUSA, for several KY media:

Paul 48, Clinton 44

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/Day2_MAYPOLL_.pdf

Really, awful for Rand Paul when one considers that he would be a Favorite Son in Kentucky. No other matchups shown.


Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Clinton 46%, Paul 42% (Clinton +4%)
Clinton 46%, Huckabee 42% (Clinton +4%)
Clinton 44%, Bush 39% (Clinton +5%)
Clinton 45%, Christie 39% (Clinton +6%)
Clinton 47%, Cruz 40% (Clinton +7%)

Tightening, but at or above the margin of error.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Oregon, and our first view of the West Coast (aside from Alaska, which seems to vote more like Texas than about anything else) for the 2016 Presidential election in this thread:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/05/oregon-miscellany.html

Clinton: 51%, Huckabee 39% (Clinton +12%)
Clinton: 51%, Paul 39% (Clinton +12%)
Clinton: 51%, Bush 36% (Clinton +15%)
Clinton: 52%, Cruz 37% (Clinton +15%)
Clinton: 51%, Christie: 34% (Clinton +17%)

Oregon is definitely not a swing state if Hillary Clinton is the nominee.    PPP does Pennsylvania next week. Apparently, Quinnipiac didn't poll over the weekend.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania:


Secretary Clinton tops Governor-next-door Christie 45 - 41 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. She leads 51 - 37 percent among women, while men go to Christie 45 - 38 percent.

    51 - 37 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. Women back Clinton 56 - 30 percent while men are divided 45 - 45 percent;
    51 - 36 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Clinton leads 56 - 32 percent among women and 46 - 41 percent among men;
    51 - 35 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, including 57 - 31 percent among women and 45 - 39 percent among men;
    50 - 38 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. Women go Democratic 55 - 31 percent, while men are divided, with 44 percent for Clinton and 45 percent for Ryan.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2048

PPP will release its results for Pennsylvania today. I doubt that there will be much of a difference.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

PPP shows much the same as Quinnipiac for Pennsylvania, except that PPP doesn't have Christie as close to Hillary Clinton:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/pennsylvania-miscellany.html#more

When two pollsters get such similar results for the same state in the same week one has a good calibration. Obviously we have no need for a new map, as averaging changes nothing. 

[pbrower2a]

PPP will give us some Florida polls this week. At this stage, now that we finally have one West Coast state polled for anyone and finally have one poll involving Huckabee north of the Potomac, we can draw some conclusions:

1. Hillary Clinton has largely maintained the margins by which Barack Obama won states in 2012 (if not 2008 -- and I would have to see an unlikely poll for Indiana to say "2008") while having smaller losses in those states that Barack Obama lost.

2. Hillary Clinton seems to evoke Clinton nostalgia in Arkansas. Whether that will stick is something I refuse to predict this early. She can win without Arkansas, but she can't lose with it.  I'd like to see a poll for Tennessee, a state demographically similar to Arkansas, before I suggest putting it in the Clinton column.  

3. Jeb Bush seems to win nothing that Barack Obama won in 2012. He doesn't even win the state in which he was Governor (Florida). He puts Arizona and Georgia at risk of becoming  R losses with the possibility of a 400-EV landslide.

4. Chris Christie seems to do better than Obama did in Pennsylvania, but not well enough to win it. He makes Colorado very close (which could reflect that the questions about Presidential polling in Colorado involve an electorate for a midterm election). He gets edged out in Arizona which (a) is inconsistent with a tie in Colorado) and (b) would be more than compensation for Colorado. Hillary Clinton probably gets 360 or so electoral votes against him.

5. Paul actually wins Colorado based on 'likely voters in a midterm election'.  The state has a loud libertarian segment in the electorate which shines now. But the "likely electorate of 2014" is decidedly smaller than that of a Presidential election. But he loses Arizona, which has 3 more electoral votes. If Arizona is close in a Presidential election (the state has voted once for a Democratic nominee for President since 1948) then a Republican nominee is in deep trouble.

6. Huckabee has no support outside of the Deep and Mountain South and in states that just simply never vote for a Democratic nominee. I was chary of saying so until I saw polls for Oregon and Pennsylvania. If he loses by 15% in Pennsylvania (nearly the tipping-point state in 2012), then he projects to lose by about 12% nationwide. That would be good for a landslide characteristic of Eisenhower in the 1950s with Hillary Clinton winning roughly 56% of the popular vote and about 84% of the electoral vote.    

[pbrower2a]

Loras College, Iowa.

Clinton 48, Christie 39
Clinton 52, Paul 38
Clinton 49, Bush 38
Clinton 50, Ryan 39
Clinton 50, Huckabee 40

http://www.loras.edu/LorasCollege/files/34/34449663-47f1-438b-8d3d-69507e9f94f6.pdf

GOP disaster. Barack Obama won Iowa by 9% in 2008, and just look at the national results that year. A Republican nominee wins nationwide if he wins Iowa and can still win without it  (the state is about D+3), but without Iowa being close a Republican loses nationwide.

Ohio is roughly the opposite. 
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Florida. Survey USA has Hillary up by 6 against Bush, and averaging that with PPP results gets the same result as the PPP poll. I average polls made in the same week.

Clinton- 46%
Bush- 45%

Clinton- 48%
Rubio- 44%

Clinton- 48%
Paul- 42%

Clinton- 48%
Huckabee- 41%

Clinton- 46%
Christie- 38%

Clinton- 50%
Cruz- 39%

This poll found responders split slightly for Romney in how they voted in 2012. Barack Obama barely won the state. Jeb comes close, but others are behind by at least the margin of error.
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

St. Leo University, Florida

In trial heats:

Jeb Bush would defeat Hillary Clinton, 46-44 percent (2 points)

Clinton defeats former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, 47-40 percent (7 points)
Clinton defeats U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, 49-41 percent (8 points)
Clinton defeats U.S. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, 50-40 percent(10 points)
Clinton defeats U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, 50-38 percent (12 points)
Clinton defeats U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, 52-36 percent (16 points)

http://polls.saintleo.edu/florida-presidential-primary-preview-hillary-clinton-jeb-bush-florida-favorites

Averaging three polls in one week involving Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush (SurveyUSA, PPP, and St. Leo University) I find that Hillary still leads by a bare but shaky margin. Others do nothing to change the observations by other pollsters.  
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/-minnesota-miscellany.html
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Ignoring those that I have dropped because either (1) nobody asks about them anymore or (2) polling of them is rare I find:

1. Very few "not-so-sure" states or electoral votes are polled. That is now limited to four states (IN, MO, NV, TN) that have been close in any Presidential election beginning in 2000.  NE-02 belongs in that category. Colorado and Nevada may not seem much alike to you (you would know whether you were in Colorado or Nevada, and you would never confuse Denver and Las Vegas) but they seem to vote much alike. 

2. The only state that Obama has ever won that surprises anyone is Colorado. This may be because Colorado is extensively polled based on "likely voters" models appropriate for a midterm, as there will be a Senatorial and a Gubernatorial election there in November. The electorate typical of a midterm is more R than a Presidential election, and the Presidential matchups in 2014 are thus designed for a midterm. Some matchups show Hillary Clinton doing badly in Colorado in contrast to some other States. 

But that is only one state. 

3. We have, if nothing near all states, something unlikely to yield giant surprises to the benefit of any Republican. Colorado is the biggest. Nobody sees any of the states that have gone by 5% or more to President Obama twice except Colorado as possible pickups. To accommodate the loss of Virginia the Republicans basically need something like Wisconsin and New Hampshire; to accommodate the loss of Ohio, the Republicans need something like Michigan or Pennsylvania. Such seems not to be happening.

4. We are completely missing polls for binary matchups in some states with large electoral vote totals (CA, IL, WA), but nobody can expect surprises. We have no polls for either Bush or Huckabee in New York State. But all in all we have a good skeleton. At this point I would be tempted to concede that IN, MO, and TN would vote for any Republican nominee until I see evidence otherwise. On the other side, I can't imagine any Republican nominee winning Maryland, Massachusetts, or Washington, either.         

Giving the most favorable argument for maximal results for any possible Republican nominee:

5. We have polls involving Jeb Bush in 26 states. Even if one concedes him all states in which he is tied or behind by an amount within the margin of error, he seems to lose Arkansas to Hillary Clinton and otherwise everything that Obama won twice except Florida. He would lose the Electoral college at least 309-229, and it gets worse if he actually loses one of those states within the margin of error or anything else, let alone one of the unpolled states with ten or so electoral votes that went R in 2012 (IN, MO, TN). If Arkansas ans Georgia are at risk with Bush as the nominee, then so are Missouri and Tennessee. 

6. With Christie we have 28 states polled. Hillary Clinton projects to get Obama 2012 results except for having Colorado being decided by a hair -- but picking up Arkansas and North Carolina by margins beyond the margin of error (344 EV) with a good chance of picking up Arizona (and if she gets Arizona she also picks up Colorado) The best-case scenario from the R standpoint for a Christie-Clinton matchup is 344-194. In view of the weak showings that Christie has in Alaska, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas, such a matchup has a potential to become a blowout landslide with Hillary Clinton getting 400 or more electoral votes.

7. With only 18 states polled involving Huckabee, I see him with no strength outside of the Mountain South and the Deep South. He would almost certainly win almost every state that Republicans have not lost since 2000, which means basically the Deep South, the Mountain South, and likely farm-and-ranch country, and Texas. The good news for Republicans is that unlike the other three he unambiguously wins Arkansas and along with it all of the other Clinton-but-not-Obama states. The bad news is that he unambiguously loses Arizona and North Carolina. I'm not sure that he wins Georgia, Indiana, or Missouri, either.

There are huge blanks in the map involving him, but those are largely in the northeastern quadrant of the US. It is safe to assume that, in view of his prospect of losing Pennsylvania by 10% or so and being out of reasonable contention in Virginia, that he will win nothing to the north and east of of the Potomac. The best result for him  as a Republican nominee in electoral votes would be Hillary Clinton winning 360-178 or so, which is what one gets when one trades Obama's anomalous wins of Indiana and NE-02 in 2008 for Arizona.

Huckabee is a Southern right-wing populist, which is the antithesis of most of the northeastern quadrant of the US and the West Coast. No way do I see him losing Texas, but I can easily imagine him losing Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and NE-02 in 2016y, which would give Hillary Clinton 400 or so electoral votes. I also see him as an unusually poor R choice to hold onto the Dakotas or Montana.

8. As with Christie, we have 28 states polled involving Rand Paul. Paul projects to lose everything that Romney lost and apparently pick up Colorado. But he loses Arkansas, which would be a good trade for Colorado -- if he weren't also losing Florida, Ohio, and Virginia as well.  But with him he could easily lose Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. The most positive view that I can now project for Rand Paul is Hillary Clinton 329 - Rand Paul 209.

I see Colorado very shaky for him. He probably fares well in polling in Colorado because of his father's reputation as a libertarian. Colorado has a loud libertarian streak in its Republican Party. That said, I see Rand Paul much more authoritarian than his father, and that could wreck his chance of picking up Colorado or Nevada. Think about it: the late Governor George Romney is admired in Michigan, but his son got destroyed there in the 2012 election.

10. These results are consistent with national polls that show Hillary Clinton  way ahead. They would be very different if Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee, and I have nothing to say about any other potential Democratic nominee.

Hillary Clinton is much less regionally-polarizing than Barack Obama. The President in the 20th century who got the percentage if the popular vote to Obama in 2008 was FDR in 1944, when he got 432 electoral votes (and Alaska, Hawaii, and DC, which between them hold ten electoral votes, weren't voting). Obama got only 365 electoral votes, and seven of those came from DC and Hawaii.  With an even shift of 0.53% of the popular vote to match FDR in 1944, Obama would have picked off only Missouri and gotten a comparatively-modest 276 electoral votes. 

11. The Republicans have chances if (1) Hillary Clinton is not the nominee or (2) she melts down during the campaign (health, scandal?).         

[pbrower2a]

Am I correct in assuming that the reason we don't have maps of Joe Biden versus the likeliest GOP candidates is due to the scarcity of polls including Biden? Whenever there are enough polls with Biden to justify making maps with him on this thread, I would be grateful to see them.

You are. The only ways in which Joe Biden becomes President is if President Obama dies, resigns, or is impeached and convicted.  Such sporadic polls as I have seen show him unelectable.

I have had Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, and Mario Rubio, and I dropped them once I saw that people quit taking them seriously. I was all set to have polls involving Scott Walker because he seemed a likely hero of the Right as a right-wing Governor of a liberal state, saw a couple polls, and saw nothing else.

In theory the Republicans could still get some nominee out of the smoke-filled room as a compromise between factions. Problems?

1.  Smoking is down -- way down -- from when decisions really were made in obscure, smoke-filled rooms

2. We have never seen such happen in decades, and

3. Nominees so selected have done badly in general elections

4. The Republican Party does not want a 'moral victory' in an electoral loss. 

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:


Clinton- 45%
Bush- 44%

Clinton- 46%
Huckabee- 43%

Clinton- 46%
Paul- 43%

Clinton- 45%
Christie- 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more