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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 111425 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #150 on: November 22, 2013, 08:46:28 am »
« edited: November 23, 2013, 11:46:33 am by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, Florida:

Even though


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Such does not make a Republican win of Florida in 2016 now look likely:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1980


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #151 on: November 22, 2013, 09:02:25 am »

I think you should add Ted Cruz and get rid of Ryan.  Hardly anyone polling on him anymore.

I dumped Marco Rubio because he was stumbling around badly, and nobody was talking about him as Presidential material. People were talking about the next-to-last Republican nominee for Vice-President for a long time... and Paul Ryan hasn't made a fool of himself yet. Well, at least not as badly as Rick Perry or Marco Rubio.

As you can see, Quinnipiac just polled Florida for several binary matchups between Hillary Clinton and several imaginable Republican nominees. Paul Ryan was one of them. Florida is a surprisingly-good microcosm of America.

I can dump Ryan in favor of Cruz -- but so far I see Cruz doing badly just about everywhere that is not a sure R state.   
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #152 on: November 22, 2013, 09:11:55 am »

pbrower, Hillary leads Bush 47-45 in the new Quinnipiac poll.

You need to change the Hillary/Bush map to a 40% shade.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #153 on: November 23, 2013, 07:42:00 am »

Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +8
FL: Clinton +4
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
LA: Clinton +1
ME: Clinton +8
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MS: Christie +9
MT: Christie +17
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +4
NC: Christie +3
NY: Clinton +16
OH: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +5
SC: Christie +5
TX: Christie +5
VA: Clinton +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +10
WY: Christie +28

Clinton leads by 4 in FL, NH, and NJ.  If all of these polls reflected the true results, one of those three would be the "tipping point state".

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+13
FL: D+3
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
LA: D+21
ME: R+7
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MS: D+3
MT: R+3
NH: R+2
NJ: R+14
NC: R+1
NY: R+10
OH: D+6
PA: no change
SC: D+5
TX: D+11
VA: R+2
WV: D+18
WI: D+3
WY: D+13


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #154 on: November 23, 2013, 11:56:54 am »

pbrower, Hillary leads Bush 47-45 in the new Quinnipiac poll.

You need to change the Hillary/Bush map to a 40% shade.

20% shade because the lead is only 2% with less than 50%. The correction is made.

That said, if she is doing that well against a former governor of Florida who wasn't that bad... then Hillary Clinton can overcome the usual Favorite Son effect.  Against Jeb Bush she could win easily without Florida because she would have excellent chances of winning at least three states (North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) that a Republican nominee absolutely must win to have a chance. Basically she would have to win one of those three states (If I were her I would not count on Colorado), and Florida would be the difference between winning 300 and winning 329 electoral votes. If Rick Scott is still Governor, he probably 'delivers' Florida to the GOP through means other than campaigning.

The last poll of Georgia had a tie between Hillary and Jeb. Such may show the relevance of the Favorite Son.   
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #155 on: November 23, 2013, 06:44:11 pm »
« Edited: November 26, 2013, 06:02:42 pm by eric82oslo »

Once again time to update, after the releases of two more polls, one in Virginia, the other in New York. The number of total state polls added to the lists below has now reached 70.

One more update, on November 24, to include the two latest polls of Montana and Florida. Both polls are very god news for Republicans, in the sense that Hillary's Florida lead has been cut in more than half and GOP's lead in Montana has increased by 5% as well.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain


Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain


Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%

+2.5% D improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.2%
+10.6% R improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement

(Updated on November 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement

(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest October poll, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.65% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting an 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 203 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 110 EVs (for a total of 12 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York & Maine of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far (3 if including New Jersey), against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. New Jersey: R +10.6%
9. Colorado: R +9%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%


All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The only non-candidate states (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, have been Colorado, Maine & New York. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Pennsylvania: D +12%
Maine: D +8%
New Jersey: D +7.2%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Michigan: D +6%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +4.5%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Iowa: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Kentucky: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%

Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Colorado: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 70 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Last updated on November 26.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #156 on: November 24, 2013, 04:48:25 am »

Florida: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement


Florida is:

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +2%
+1% D improvement


Is right?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #157 on: November 24, 2013, 08:17:53 am »

Florida: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement


Florida is:

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +2%
+1% D improvement


Is right?

No, cause Jeb Bush's poll numbers are based on five local polls, while Christie strangely enough has only been polled this once in the state. It's too early to say if Bush or Christie will end up as the strongest candidate for Florida, but it might very well be Bush in the end. However, until this last poll, even Bush did horrendously in most Florida match-ups, trailing Hillary by an average of 9%.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #158 on: November 24, 2013, 09:52:09 am »

We will get one 'new' state this weekend -- Illinois, with 20 electoral votes. It could be interesting. Without a Favorite Son running for President this time, Illinois could end up much closer in 2016. The Favorite Son effect is both additive and subtractive.

Such was true of Texas between 2004 and 2008. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #159 on: November 26, 2013, 12:46:58 am »

Wall Street Journal/Marist/WNBC-TV (NBC-4, New York City)

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http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304465604579220182335855674


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


[/quote]
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #160 on: November 27, 2013, 10:39:03 am »
« Edited: December 09, 2013, 05:33:55 pm by eric82oslo »

Latest update on December 9th with the 5th Colorado poll on presidential match-ups this year.

Once again time to update, after the releases of five more polls, three today, in Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and two yesterday, in Virginia and New York. The Pennsylvania poll is a semi-dramatic one, as it changes the state's status as a lean/likely D state into an absolute toss-up, as of now at least. The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 75.


(One more update, on November 24, to include the two latest polls of Montana and Florida. Both polls are very god news for Republicans, in the sense that Hillary's Florida lead has been cut in more than half and GOP's lead in Montana has increased by 5% as well.)

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.7%
+4.1% R improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on April 9)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on June 4)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 18)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.2%
+10.6% R improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement

(Updated on November 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.5%
+4.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 27)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement[/color]
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 203 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 110 EVs (for a total of 12 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. New Jersey: R +10.6%
9. Colorado: R +10.1%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Pennsylvania: R +4.9%


All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Maine: D +8%
New Jersey: D +7.2%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Current estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%
Michigan: D +6%
Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Kentucky: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Iowa: D +1.7%
Pennsylvania: D +0.5%

Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 75 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Despite the near inmense number of bad polls for Hillary, Obama and Democrats during the past month or so, Hillary is still expected to beat the tailor-made Republican (which in 17 of 26 cases happens to be Christie) by an impressive projected 6.9% nationally.

8 or 9 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Iowa & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After this last poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.


Last updated on December 9.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #161 on: November 27, 2013, 01:32:56 pm »

Please everyone, use your democratic right and go and vote for one of the five so far no-polled states which might be polled by Public Policy Polling this weekend. Those five states are, in decreasing number of importance (counting from their number of Electoral Votes):

Maryland: 10 EVs
Oregon: 7 EVs
Connecticut: 7 EVs
New Mexico: 5 EVs
Rhode Island: 4 EVs

Here's the link to go to vote: http://publicpolicypolling.com/
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Scott🦋
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« Reply #162 on: November 27, 2013, 01:37:49 pm »

I voted for Kentucky.  I don't see the big need for any of the states you listed to be polled yet.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #163 on: November 27, 2013, 01:41:56 pm »

I voted for Kentucky.  I don't see the big need for any of the states you listed to be polled yet.

Luckily Oregon is leading though, yet I personally voted for Maryland. Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #164 on: November 27, 2013, 06:04:49 pm »

Ohio, Quinnipiac:

In an early look at the 2016 run for the White House, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for New Jersey Republican Gov. Christopher Christie in Ohio. Secretary Clinton tops Gov. John Kasich 49 - 38 percent and leads other Republicans:

    50 - 37 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 39 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida;
    50 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    49 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
    50 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1985

Pennsylvania, PPP:

Christie 48%, Clinton 44%
Clinton 48%, Bush 44%
Clinton 51%, Paul 43%
Clinton 51%, Santorum 42%
Clinton 53%, Cruz 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_PA_112713.pdf

Chris Christie must be an unusually-good match for Pennsylvania but not so good a match for Ohio. Go figure.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #165 on: November 28, 2013, 03:01:34 am »

pbrower, Christie is actually leading Hillary in Iowa and Virginia.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #166 on: November 28, 2013, 06:19:49 pm »
« Edited: November 28, 2013, 06:21:49 pm by pbrower2a »

pbrower, Christie is actually leading Hillary in Iowa and Virginia.

The Iowa poll is commissioned by an entity that has the word "conservative" in its name.
   
Re: VA-Polling Company/WomanTrend/Washington Free Beacon: Christie ahead
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2013, 12:34:39 pm »    

It should be noted that the Washington Free Beacon is a conservative newspaper and that the owner of the Polling Company is a former aide to Newt Gingrich.

Iowa and Virginia get polled often enough.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #167 on: December 01, 2013, 02:47:29 am »

Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +8
FL: Clinton +4
GA: Christie +2
IA: Christie +5
LA: Clinton +1
ME: Clinton +8
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MS: Christie +9
MT: Christie +17
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +4
NC: Christie +3
NY: Clinton +18
OH: Clinton +1
PA: Christie +4
SC: Christie +5
TX: Christie +5
VA: Christie +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +10
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+13
FL: D+3
GA: D+6
IA: R+11
LA: D+21
ME: R+7
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MS: D+3
MT: R+3
NH: R+2
NJ: R+14
NC: R+1
NY: R+8
OH: R+2
PA: R+9
SC: D+5
TX: D+11
VA: R+6
WV: D+18
WI: D+3
WY: D+13


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #168 on: December 09, 2013, 06:10:55 pm »
« Edited: December 09, 2013, 06:13:03 pm by pbrower2a »

Republicans seem to be reversing the Democratic trend of the last six years or so in Colorado.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_CO_120913.pdf

Note, though:

Very Republican sample at 47-46 Obama-Romney, though.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #169 on: December 11, 2013, 09:43:14 am »

National, Pew Research:

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Clinton has an edge over Christie and a double-digit lead against anyone else. She leads:

    Christie 48-45;
    Rubio 52-42;
    Bush 53-41;
    Paul 55-40;
    Ryan 56-40;
    Perry 58-37;
    Cruz 57-35;
    Palin 59-36.

Christie does better among Democrats and moderates against Clinton than his fellow Republicans. He also does better among men, which a Republican needs to offset the Democrats’ usual lead among women.

“He chips away a little,” said Miringoff. “But Clinton has her way with the crowd.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/12/10/211208/hillary-clinton-dominates-early.html#storylink=cpy

My interpretation based on how the undecided would go: they either do not vote or go ineffectively to the loser. Hillary Clinton would win much like Obama in 2012 against Christie, roughly 51.5-48.5 (I don't like decimals, but they are close enough to split the vote some, probably about 6-4 for Christie). Hillary would lose the undecided about 7-3 against Bush or Rubio. With the others the undecided are almost all on the Right, and they would go R about 9-1.

Christie 51-48   Kennedy 1960
    Rubio 55-45  Eisenhower 1952
    Bush 56-44   GHW Bush 1988
    Paul 56-44    GHW Bush 1988
    Ryan 57-43   Reagan 1980
    Perry 59-41  Reagan 1980
    Cruz 58-42   Reagan 1980
    Palin 60-40   LBJ 1964

...If anyone is thinking about Sarah Palin as the Great Female Hope for the GOP, she still has one gigantic weakness: her mangled language will offend anyone whose first language is not English, whether that language is German or Tagalog, Russian or Arabic, Hindi or Chinese, or Farsi or Vietnamese.     

In view of his ability to cut even a small deal with Democratic Senator Patty Murray, his stock has probably risen since this poll. I am not abandoning him yet.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #170 on: December 11, 2013, 10:16:24 am »


Huh?  Pew Research?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #171 on: December 11, 2013, 11:01:41 am »
« Edited: December 11, 2013, 03:15:30 pm by pbrower2a »

Monmouth, NJ


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #172 on: December 11, 2013, 11:51:46 am »

Why NJ is blue in the Clinton vs. Bush map?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #173 on: December 11, 2013, 03:13:45 pm »

Why NJ is blue in the Clinton vs. Bush map?

Intended for Christie. Corrected.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #174 on: December 11, 2013, 03:21:11 pm »

December 5-8, 2013
Survey of 1,034 Michigan voters (PPP)
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MI_121113.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan





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