2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

For reasons beyond my understanding, Quinnipiac polled PA on Hillary Clinton vs. Ted Cruz.

Clinton 54%
Cruz 34%

 


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

So maybe I can have a little fun. Unless a state offers a clear ceiling for someone short of 50% (think of polls that had Obama up 45-44 in the Dakotas and Montana in 2008), undecided votes generally go ineffectively toward the eventual loser, making things closer than the early margins in polls.   


...If Ted Cruz picked up 80% of the gap between him and Hillary Clinton (which suggests a ceiling around 60% for any Democratic nominee for President in Pennsylvania), then Hillary Clinton would win Pennsylvania 58-42. I don't see Cruz losing Pennsylvania by a margin like 65-35 as by Goldwater in 1964. Like Mondale in 1984 or Stevenson in the 1950s?

Pennsylvania was Eisenhower's 36th best state in 1952 and 32nd-best state in 1956 -- and 46th-best state for Reagan in 1984. The closest binary election to a blowout by a Democratic nominee (Clinton in the 1990s is not binary due to Ross Perot) since 1964 for a Democrat was 2008, and then it was the 19th-best state for Obama, who won the state 54-44.

Cruz gets no advantage from any vote that would vote for a Democrat so long as the Democrat isn't  black.  Cruz loses nationwide about 56-44, and avoids getting 50 or fewer electoral votes because he wins Texas... barely. 

If you think I take Ted Cruz as a political joke -- I don't. He is simply too awful a political figure to be so taken.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania probably is in Hillary's column. The Q poll supplants an earlier Q poll and follows the bridge scandal. Hillary is still down compared to Obama in 2012 in Pennsylvania, but by much less.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, PPP:

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 47%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Chris Christie .................................................. 39%

Q5 In the last presidential election, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_IA_227.pdf

Not slipping away from the Democrats this time. Nothing on Ted Cruz (as if I care). 
   

.........................


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Christopher Newport University (with which I am unfamiliar)

Clinton 43%
Christie 41%

Clinton 52%
Huckabee 37%

Clinton 52%
Ryan 37%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 37%

Clinton 51%
Bush 38%

Clinton 47%
Paul 40%

Clinton 48%
Rubio 40%

Clinton 46%
Walker 35%
  

.........................

Neither Huckabee not Walker is popular in Virginia. Because Virginia is very close to the national average in voting for President, Republicans are in extreme trouble if they nominate anyone other than Chris Christie, and in a poor position if they nominate Christie.  

I've been curious about Walker because he would be a hero of the Right for his 'heroic' stances against Big Labor and Big Government.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Three university polls.

Rutgers, NJ; Siena, NY; Roanoke, VA

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/independent_research/Issues0214%20Crosstabs%20State%20Comparison.pdf

New Jersey

Clinton 51%
Christie 41%

Clinton 58%
Paul 29%

Clinton 58%
Ryan 33%

New York

Clinton 64%
Christie 28%

Clinton 67%
Paul 24%

Clinton 64%
Ryan 27%

Virginia

Clinton 48%
Christie 40%

Clinton 52%
Paul 38%

Clinton 51%
Ryan 40%

(In practice I average polls within a week).

............................

PPP will soon have polls for Arizona.  

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Some Presidential nominees have won all three states (NJ, NY, VA). Those who have beginning in 1912 are:

Wilson 1912
Hoover 1928
FDR all four times
Eisenhower 1952 and 1956
LBJ 1964
Nixon 1972
Reagan 1980 and 1984
Obama 2008 and 2012


It's not rare (14 times, and it is split almost evenly D-R).  In all such instances, anyone who won all three states won the Presidential election.

The closest elections nationwide involving anyone winning all three states were FDR 1944 and the two with Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton, should she win in 2016 with all three states would be no exception.

[pbrower2a]

PPP will soon have now has polls for Arizona.

Arizona, after going for John McCain only by 8% in 2008, an unusually-small margin for a Favorite Son, looked as if it would be a swing state in 2012 or 2016.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/mccain-least-popular-senator-in-country.html

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/north-carolinians-want-duke-to-pay.html

Clinton 47
Bush 46

Clinton 46
Christie 42

Clinton 49
Paul 43

Clinton 49
Huckabee 42

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina as a toss-up? It's been done. 2008, a disastrous year for the GOP.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac poll of Iowa:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2019

Clinton 48%
Christie 35%

Clinton 49%
Paul 39%

Clinton 51%
Cruz 35%

Clinton 51%
Bush 37%

Not much wriggle room for Republicans. Q did ask about Cruz, but in view of how far behind he is in Iowa, a state just slightly D in 50-50 elections since about 1992 is one that he wouldn't make close. Republican nominees can win without Iowa... if this is how Iowa looks in the summer of 2016, then the only question about the Presidential election is actuarial in nature.

I'd have rather seen how Scott Walker would do in Iowa than how Ted Cruz would. PPP will be polling Wisconsin soon enough.   

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Paul needs to start campaigning fast

He may see the writing on the wall.

[pbrower2a]

I'd have rather seen how Scott Walker would do in Iowa than how Ted Cruz would. PPP will be polling Wisconsin soon enough.

Whoops! It's Colorado. R disaster nonetheless.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/colorado-happy-with-marijuana-legalization-supports-gay-marriage.html

Clinton 47
Paul 44

Clinton 45
Christie 38

Clinton 48
Huckabee 41

Clinton 48
Bush 39

Clinton 49
Cruz 40  

I'm dropping the Colorado poll for Paul Ryan, as the poll is old and I see no reason for Ryan to do better than any other Republican in Colorado; besides, I think Ryan is going after power within the House of Representatives after a lackluster VP run.

I may replace Ryan with Huckabee.    

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Blank map -- setting it up for Mike Huckabee as a potential candidate against Hillary Clinton. He gets attention now. Purpose: to remove consideration for Paul Ryan, whom I no longer consider relevant as a candidate for the Presidency in 2016. Seeking the Presidency and seeking power within the House seem incompatible, and except for Dick Cheney (chosen by Dubya for administrative talents more than for the ability to campaign or deliver a critical state) and Gerald Ford (freakish situation) we haven't had a successful campaigner for the Presidency or Vice-Presidency who has never gone 'beyond' the House of Representatives in an electoral career.

Mike Huckabee has been a Governor, indeed of a State whence one of the most successful campaigners ever came from despite having few electoral votes in that state. (That of course is Bill Clinton of Arkansas).

The map. Backtracking begins shortly.

Blank map.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Most polls come from PPP (indeed, all but one) and all are from February or March 2014.

Colorado, PPP:
Clinton 48  - Huckabee 41

Louisiana, PPP:
Huckabee- 49% - Clinton- 44%

Kansas, PPP:
Huckabee- 49% Clinton- 42%

Iowa, PPP:
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 42%

Christopher Newport University, Virginia:
Clinton 52% Huckabee 37%

Arizona, PPP:
Hillary Clinton... leads  Mike Huckabee (47/41)

North Carolina, PPP:
Clinton 49 Huckabee 42

Alaska, PPP:
Huckabee 45% Clinton 41%

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

I have enough data points for incorporating Mike Huckabee into the four-way contrast. The polls in question include five legitimate swing states:

Iowa, which is at most on the fringe of competition if the Democrat wins the Presidency, and was very close in the last two Democratic losses of the Presidential election (D+3); tipping-point state in 2008

Colorado, very close to the national average in 2008 and 2012 and the tipping point state of 2012 (R+2)

Virginia, which may have gone D in only four Presidential elections since World War II, but will now be close in a close election (R+3)

North Carolina, which needs to be a clear R victory for Republicans to truly have a chance to get elected  (R+5)

Arizona, a state whose demographics can hurt the Republicans badly in 2016 (about R+10 in 2008 and 2012, but that could be about R+5 in 2016)

A Republican nominee really needs to win four of these five states (and Florida and Ohio) to have a reasonable chance of winning the Presidency in 2016 -- and the only one of these states that the Republicans can afford to lose is Iowa -- unless he's picking up such states as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The map does not rule that out for Huckabee yet, but if he is losing all the states that he is behind in now on Election Day, 2016 he might concede the election before the results come in from the West Coast.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Virginia:

Secretary Clinton squeaks by New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 45 - 41 percent and tops other possible Republican contenders in the 2016 presidential race:

    47 - 39 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 42 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    49 - 41 over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2025
    

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

In case you didn't put much credibility in a university pollster of Virginia that you may have never heard from, another university pollster (Quinnipiac) that you have heard much of pares a likely Clinton lead over Huckabee.

Secretary Clinton squeaks by New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 45 - 41 percent ...

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2025

An 8-point lead is fairly close to what Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012.

... What will it take for me to replace Paul Ryan, who had a disastrous campaign for VP in 2012 and would be running from the House of Representatives whence nobody has successfully campaigned for the Presidency since the 19th century, with Mike Huckabee? Pollsters seem to not be taking Ryan seriously.

A Wisconsin poll that excludes Ryan but has Huckabee?

Mike Huckabee needs not begin an official campaign for a nearly two years yet. He's getting much publicity on FoX "News" Channel, and really can't make an official campaign while having a show on FoX "News". Company policy.  He's savvy about media -- savvy enough to avoid hostile audiences for now.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/new-mexico-miscellany.html

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

New Mexico, PPP -- and Huckabee is not doing well there.  Of course, New Mexico is no longer a legitimate swing state. 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Shall I replace the map for Ryan with the map for Huckabee?

[pbrower2a]

Shall I replace the map for Ryan with the map for Huckabee?

I think that would be a good idea. Ryan does not seem to be viable, but at least Huckabee has chance.

I concur. All in all, someone can be an ex-governor, go into the media as a political outsider, and win the Presidency by winning support as a conservative critic of liberals (Carter) and people 'not conservative enough' (Ford).  That's what Ronald Reagan did. Arkansas is not too small to have a current or former Governor become President (Bill Clinton did that). Obviously I am not saying that Mike Huckabee would do as well in a Presidential campaign as either. I can imagine him winning the nomination, which is enough. 

With Paul Ryan I have problems. Recent nominees for VP who have done badly in their one opportunity generally don't get nominated for President.  William Miller? Sargent Shriver? Geraldine Ferraro? Sarah Palin? We all saw what sort of campaigner he was in 2012; as the chance for winning the Presidency waned he started defending his House seat. 

He has never won a statewide election in his own state. Successful candidates  for the Presidency and Vice- Presidency since 1960 have all done so before such runs. (Dick Cheney won for the at-large Congressional district of Wyoming, so that qualifies him on this criterion). I would have to qualify him as having won a statewide election in Wisconsin  had he won Wisconsin as a VP nominee. Heck, George H W Bush had won all three states that he was associated in 1980 and 1984 -- his birth state (Maine, reliably D in Presidential elections after 1988), the state in which he spend his childhood years and college career (Connecticut, likewise), and the state in which he had some business and political career (Texas, not a sure thing for Republicans until 2000). The elder Bush at least had some impressive diplomatic and Cabinet posts. 

With a comparatively-safe seat he may be interested in power in the House. He's more likely to become Speaker of the House than President of the United States, and that is arguably the second-most powerful office in the US government. 

Finally he is not a war hero, so he could never turn a war record into Presidential success despite never holding statewide office as did Dwight Eisenhower.

I haven't seen many recent polls for Ryan but I have seen some for Huckabee. Those for Ryan are getting old even if there are more for him than for Huckabee. I see two precedents for Mike Huckabee becoming President of the United States (Reagan! Clinton!) and none for Paul Ryan.

Here's what a set of maps with Huckabee but not Ryan would look like:

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/michigan-miscellany.html

Basically, Hillary Clinton would win Michigan much as Obama did in 2012. The narrow lead that she seemed to have over Christie has ballooned significantly, and no Republican seems to now have much of a chance to win the State's 16 electoral votes in 2016 against her. Huckabee really has no chance here.

In other news, Michigan is Detroit Tiger country... and Tiger fans expect to see a big Cat Show in October as the end of the baseball season.

PPP no longer shows Paul Ryan in Michigan

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Eric -- you might as well recognize that the pollsters are no longer asking about Paul Ryan as a Presidential candidate. The Colorado poll involving Paul Ryan is very old and now likely irrelevant.

I think that Ryan is seeking power within the House either in leadership on a committee of his choosing or as Speaker of the House. Huckabee seems more relevant to pollsters now.  Rand Paul may excite the Libertarian culture in Colorado enough to make the state close but even he can't give the state to the GOP. 

PPP may release a poll on North Carolina this week; it will be polling Texas next week. 

[pbrower2a]

PPP, NC

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Texas:

Paul- 50%
Clinton- 40%

Huckabee- 50%
Clinton- 42%

Bush- 50%
Clinton- 42%

Cruz- 50%
Clinton- 43%

Perry- 49%
Clinton- 44%

Christie- 44%
Clinton- 42%

Hillary would bring Texas closer than any Democrat in the 21st century. Safe R.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/ted-cruz-most-popular-in-texas.html

PPP will have polls for Wisconsin next week. It might show how well two potential favorite sons would do.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more