2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[eric82oslo]

With Saint Leo University's second 2016 poll of Florida, which also happens to be the 20th poll of the state from any pollster, here are the new averages in match ups including Hillary Clinton:

Vs Jeb Bush: D +6.3% (15 polls, Hillary up 1%!)
Vs Mitt Romney: D +7% (1 poll)
Vs Rick Perry: D +10% (1 poll)
Vs Marco Rubio: D +10.5% (16 polls, Hillary up 0.8%)
Vs Paul Ryan: D +11.2% (6 polls)
Vs Mike Huckabee: D +11.3% (3 polls)
Vs Chris Christie: D +12.0% (9 polls, Hillary up 0.4%)
Vs Rand Paul: D +12.5% (10 polls, Hillary up 1.3%!)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +18.7% (7 polls, Hillary up 1.4%!)

Even with this Hillary boomblaster of a poll added to the database, Jeb Bush continues to rule mightily over his kingdom of talentless knights. Even a poll that show him 20% down on Hillary, can't take away all of his glory in this beloved state of his.



We also got the 6th Kansas poll on 2016 today, which was also the 5th one from PPP alone. New Clinton averages here:

Vs Jeb Bush: R +8.6% (5 polls, Hillary down 0.6%)
Vs Paul Ryan: R +7% (1 poll)
Vs Rand Paul: R +5.6% (5 polls, Hillary up 0.15%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: R +5.25% (4 polls, Hillary down 0.25%)
Vs Marco Rubio: R +5% (1 poll)
Vs Chris Christie: R +4.25% (4 polls, unchanged)
Vs Ted Cruz: R +0.33% (3 polls, Hillary down 1.33%)

So to sum it up, Jeb Bush still has a sizable lead over his competitors in Kansas, just like this latest PPP poll strongly suggested.

[eric82oslo]

As Saint Leo University, that Catholic institution which happens to be the oldest university in the state of eternal summer, released yet another Florida poll with truely stunning numbers for Clinton, the number of Florida polls entering the database has now reached 20.

Finally, we got the 6th 2016 poll till date from Kansas. It showed improving numbers for Jeb Bush. See previous post for more details on both polls.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 189.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +6.3%
+5.4% D improvement
(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Bush: R +0.5%
+7.3% D improvement
(Updated October 7, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Mitt Romney: R +1%
+6.8% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on October 12, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8.6%
+13.0% D improvement
(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.4%
+2.1% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 5.95% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 262 EVs (in 17 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 137 EVs (in 15 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 65.7% of all EVs awarded, against only 34.3% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 9 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Arkansas: D +13.4%
4. Kansas: D +13.0%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%
8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Georgia: D +7.3%
14. Maine: R +7%
15. Iowa: R +6.8%
16. Alaska: D +6.6%
17. Florida: D +5.4%
18. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 18 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Florida: D +6.3%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +5.95%

Virginia: D +4.5%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Georgia: R +0.5%
Iowa: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8.6%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favored in 9 of 32 states (for 117 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favored in 6 states (Florida, Georgia (!), North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 90 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favored in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favored in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favored in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favored in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favored in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favored in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Mitt Romney favored in 1 state (Iowa (!) - for 6 EVs)
10. Susana Martinez favored in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
11. Ted Cruz favored in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 13.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has released two new polls today. The very first 2016 poll from Maryland, as well as another poll from Kentucky, where favourite son Rand Paul was pitched against Warren and Clinton. This happens to be the 7th 2016 poll from Kentucky. Here are the new Kentucky averages against Clinton:

Vs Jeb Bush: R +4.5% (2 polls)
Vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
Vs Rand Paul: R +2.9% (7 polls, Hillary down 0.1%)
Vs Chris Christie: R +0.5% (2 polls)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +4% (2 polls)
Vs Marco Rubio: D +7% (2 polls)

Basically an unchanged race in Kentucky for now.

Also there was a Gravis poll from New Mexico released a few days ago showing Rand Paul and Jeb Bush with fairly strong numbers. Together with a previous PPP poll, we now have two 2016 polls from this Latino state with a capital D. And it seems we have a two or three horse race there as well, for now, as these averages will show:

Vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
Vs Rand Paul: D +14% (2 polls, Hillary down 1%)
Vs Jeb Bush: D +15% (2 polls, Hillary down 1%)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +17% (1 poll)
Vs Chris Christie: D +18% (1 poll)
Vs Mike Huckabee: D +21% (1 poll)

For the Maryland poll, check out my next, fully updated database post.

[eric82oslo]

We finally have a new state to add, Maryland, the 33rd one, which has been polled by Gravis. Hillary leads Bush & Rand Paul by 17% there, but Paul Ryan by "only" 15%. Gravis also polled Kentucky, where the race remains unchanged. Finally Gravis has polled New Mexico, where Martinez & Paul now share the top spot.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 192.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 33 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +6.3%
+5.4% D improvement
(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Bush: R +0.5%
+7.3% D improvement
(Updated October 7, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Mitt Romney: R +1%
+6.8% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on October 12, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8.6%
+13.0% D improvement
(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

NEW! Maryland: Hillary vs Ryan: D +15%
+11% R improvement
(Updated on October 14, 2014)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez/Rand Paul: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on October 14, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 33 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.85%
+1.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 5.6% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 272 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 137 EVs (in 15 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 129 EVs (in 17 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 66.5% of all EVs awarded, against only 33.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 9 out of 33 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Arkansas: D +13.4%
4. Kansas: D +13.0%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%
8. Maryland: R +11%
9. New Jersey: R +9.4%
10. Colorado: R +8.9%
11. Arizona: D +8%
12. Texas: D +8%
13. Connecticut: R +8%
14. Georgia: D +7.3%
15. Maine: R +7%
16. Iowa: R +6.8%
17. Alaska: D +6.6%
18. Florida: D +5.4%
19. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All changes should be statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
Maryland: D +15%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Florida: D +6.3%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +5.6%

Virginia: D +4.5%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Georgia: R +0.5%
Iowa: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8.6%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favored in 9 of 33 states (for 117 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favored in 6 states (Florida, Georgia (!), North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 90 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favored in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, New Mexico & Alaska - for 76 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favored in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favored in 3 states (Wisconsin, Maryland & Colorado - for 29 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favored in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favored in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favored in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Mitt Romney favored in 1 state (Iowa (!) - for 6 EVs)
10. Susana Martinez favored in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
11. Ted Cruz favored in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 14.

[eric82oslo]

We have our 4th poll added for the day, including the 2nd entirely new state - this time - Idaho! So far, Hillary does much better there than Obama in 2012, yet still trailing everyone of the 5 GOPers tested, at worst by a margin of 19% against Rand Paul.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 193.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 34 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +6.3%
+5.4% D improvement
(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Bush: R +0.5%
+7.3% D improvement
(Updated October 7, 2013)

NEW! Idaho: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +19%
+13% D improvement
(Updated October 14, 2014)

Iowa: Hillary vs Mitt Romney: R +1%
+6.8% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on October 12, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8.6%
+13.0% D improvement
(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

NEW! Maryland: Hillary vs Ryan: D +15%
+11% R improvement
(Updated on October 14, 2014)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez/Rand Paul: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on October 14, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 34 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.3%
+2.0% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 5.9% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 272 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 141 EVs (in 16 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 125 EVs (in 16 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured 65.9% of all EVs awarded, against only 34.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate:

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Arkansas: D +13.4%
4. Kansas: D +13.0%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Idaho: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. Louisiana: D +12.9%
9. Maryland: R +11%
10. New Jersey: R +9.4%
11. Colorado: R +8.9%
12. Arizona: D +8%
13. Texas: D +8%
14. Connecticut: R +8%
15. Georgia: D +7.3%
16. Maine: R +7%
17. Iowa: R +6.8%
18. Alaska: D +6.6%
19. Florida: D +5.4%
20. Mississippi: D +4.5%


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
Maryland: D +15%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Florida: D +6.3%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +5.9%

Virginia: D +4.5%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Georgia: R +0.5%
Iowa: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8.6%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Idaho: R +19%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favored in 9 of 34 states (for 117 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favored in 6 states (Florida, Georgia (!), North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 90 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favored in 6 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, New Mexico (!) (shared), Idaho & Alaska - for 80 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favored in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favored in 3 states (Wisconsin, Maryland & Colorado - for 29 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favored in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favored in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favored in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Mitt Romney favored in 1 state (Iowa (!) - for 6 EVs)
10. Susana Martinez favored in 1 state (New Mexico (shared) - for 5 EVs)
11. Ted Cruz favored in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 14.

[eric82oslo]

With two new states polled for the very first time just today - Maryland and Idaho - I figured it would be time to update this ranking of states once more. There have also been released 7 more polls since my last update.


To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far (from 193 individual polls across 34 states), I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. Rhode Island - 14 EVs (still not polled)
5. New York - 43 EVs
6. Massachusetts - 54 EVs (still not polled)
7. Delaware - 57 EVs (still not polled)
8. Illinois - 77 EVs (still not polled)
9. Maryland - 87 EVs
10. Washington - 99 EVs (still not polled)
11. New Mexico - 104 EVs
12. Oregon - 111 EVs
13. California - 166 EVs
14. Connecticut - 173 EVs
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Michigan - 207 EVs
18. Ohio - 225 EVs
19. Florida - 254 EVs
20. Minnesota - 264 EVs


21. Virginia - 277 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

22. Wisconsin - 287 EVs
23. Pennsylvania - 307 EVs
24. Nevada - 313 EVs
25. New Hampshire - 317 EVs
26. North Carolina - 332 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

27. Georgia - 348 EVs
28. Iowa - 354 EVs
29. Arizona - 365 EVs
30. Colorado - 374 EVs
31. Louisiana - 382 EVs
32. Kentucky - 390 EVs
33. South Carolina - 399 EVs
34. Mississippi - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Kansas - 452 EVs
38. Missouri - 462 EVs (still not polled)
39. Indiana - 473 EVs (still not polled)
40. Arkansas - 479 EVs
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. Idaho - 494 EVs
45. North Dakota - 497 EVs (still not polled)
46. Tennessee - 508 EVs (still not polled)
47. Nebraska - 513 EVs (still not polled)
48. Alabama - 522 EVs (still not polled)
49. Wyoming - 525 EVs
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)

Not the really big changes since the last update, although both Maryland and Idaho moved considerably towards the center. Virginia remains the tipping point state for now, although at least 7 more states come really close as well (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Minnesota, Florida, Ohio & Michigan).

Updated today, October 14!

[eric82oslo]

According to your maps pbrower, the Republicans who are doing the best so far are:

1) Rubio
2) Rand Paul
3) Bush (thanks to Florida)
4) Walker

5) Huckabee (by far the worst)