2016 Official Polling Map Thread (user search)
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #100 on: September 15, 2014, 10:54:34 AM »

I'm talking about Eric's maps because in some parts of the post he uses red to represent Clinton, and in some parts he uses blue to represent Clinton and he should stick with one color for one candidate (not to be mean, but it just makes more sense).


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]

Giving us this map:


You're right. It's annoying that the maps are like they are. But I figured it would probably be even more confusing if I consistently use the Atlas colors, since most people think of red and blue America as the Republican and Democratic America.
I will keep it in mind, and perhaps change it one day. I could of course change the maps as well, so that red would actually mean Republican on the maps too, but wouldn't that just be even more confusing? I'm sure it would.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #101 on: September 15, 2014, 11:01:08 AM »
« Edited: September 15, 2014, 11:02:46 AM by eric82oslo »

Following the Iowa steak fry with retiring Senator Tom Harkin yesterday, Hillary doesn't even get one day of rest, as today she's being pitted against Jeb and Rand Paul in Arkansas. This time they did really well against her there, yet still trailing substantially to native son Mike on the averages of the 4 polls released in Arkansas so far:

Vs Huckabee: R +9.5% (2 polls)
Vs Cruz: R +4%
Vs Bush: R +2.3% (2 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: Toss up (4 polls)
Vs Christie: D +3.3% (3 polls)

In other words, it's still Huck time in the Little Rock State.



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 169.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on September 15, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%

4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 15.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #102 on: September 16, 2014, 12:30:12 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2014, 12:35:47 PM by eric82oslo »

And along comes the 14th North Carolina poll on the 2016 race. Once more it's confirmed that candidate quality truely matters. Christie is slipping fast: In this latest poll, he's only the 4th most popular (out of 5) GOP candidates. The new NC averages are:

Vs Bush: D +1.6% (11 polls, up +0.4%)
Vs Christie: D +2.1% (11 polls, down -0.5%)
Vs Huckabee: D +3.4% (7 polls, up +0.8%)
Vs Rand Paul: D +4.8% (13 polls)
Vs Rubio: D +7%
Vs Cruz: D +8% (5 polls)

Bush has for the 1st time surpassed Christie in popularity in this vital battleground state.
Jeb now polls the best in 6 states, including the crucial states of Florida, NC and Arizona, making him currently the 2nd strongest GOPer in the country.



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 170.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on September 15, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%

4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 16.
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #103 on: September 16, 2014, 06:33:21 PM »

PPP just released its 2nd 2016 poll of the day - which also happens to be the 4th one from Kansas. Smiley Of the 5 GOPers, only Cruz is trailing Clinton, and here are the new Kansas averages:

Cruz: D +1% (2 polls, down 2%)
Christie: R +4.3% (3 polls, down 1.2%)
Rand Paul: R +4.3% (3 polls, down 1.2%)
Rubio: R +5%
Huckabee: R +5% (3 polls, down 1%)
Paul Ryan: R +7%
Bush: R +7% (3 polls, down 0.5%)

That means that Jeb is losing his exclusive lead in Kansas - he has to share it with Paul Ryan for now. However, since Bush has been polled more extensively, he's probably keeping the edge, though that's speculation.
Kansas is now the state showing the 2nd strongest shift towards Hillary, after Kentucky - and just before Arkansas.



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 171.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on September 15, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%
3. Arkansas: D +14.2%

4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 17.
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #104 on: September 17, 2014, 10:43:25 AM »

Today we got the 7th poll of Louisiana, and the 1st one of the state from Gravis. It only polled 2 candidates, Paul doing poorly & Bush with a substantial lead. Here are the new averages against Hillary:

Jeb Bush: R +3.25% (4 polls, up 0.6%)
Mike Huckabee: R +3% (2 polls)
Rand Paul: R +1.5% (4 polls, down -0.2%)
Paul Ryan: R +1% (2 polls)
Ted Cruz: D +1%
Chris Christie: D +1.33% (3 polls)
Bobby Jindal: D +2.8% (5 polls)
Marco Rubio: D +3%

As was the case in North Carolina yesterday, Bush advances to the top of the field in another state, by surpassing Huckabee's strenght in Louisiana! With this, Jeb is becoming a serious contender for sure.



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 172.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on September 15, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Bush: R +3.25%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%
3. Arkansas: D +14.2%

4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3.25%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Louisiana (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 82 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 61 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 17.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #105 on: September 18, 2014, 03:27:17 PM »

And along came Gravis reasearching the bluegrass state of Kentucky carefully for us. Tongue Or perhaps not so carefully, as Rand Paul was the only GOPer tested. Pretty bad news for him, as it showed him basically with a statistical tie against Hillary in his own home state. Here are the new Kentucky averages:

Vs Bush: R +4.5% (2 polls)
Vs Huckabee: R +3%
Vs Rand Paul: R +2.7% (7 polls, down 0.1%)
Vs Christie: R +0.5% (2 polls)
Vs Cruz: D +4% (2 polls)
Vs Rubio: D +7% (2 polls)

Jeb still rules this state for now.



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 173.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on September 15, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Bush: R +3.25%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%
3. Arkansas: D +14.2%

4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3.25%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Louisiana (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 82 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 61 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 18.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #106 on: September 23, 2014, 09:16:01 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2014, 09:21:44 PM by eric82oslo »

Today we got two new PPP state polls of Arkansas and Alaska. They generally show some good news for the GOPers in Arkansas, while the race in Alaska is relatively unchanged, though being slightly more favorable towards Hillary than the previous consensus. Except when it comes to Christie, who happened to have a fantastic Alaska poll this time around, leading Hillary there by a shocking 10%. A sign of a turnarond thanks to the recent news report stating his non-involvement in Bridgegate or simply a one time fluke? Time will tell. In the meantime, here are the new candidate averages in the two states:

Arkansas:

Vs Huckabee: R +10.3% (3 polls, up 0.8%)
Vs Bush: R +3.0% (4 polls, up 0.7%)
Vs Cruz: R +2.5% (2 polls, down 1.5%)
Vs Rand Paul: R +0.4% (5 polls, up 0.4%)

Vs Christie: D +2.75% (4 poll, up 0.55%)

As we see, Huckabee is increasing his lead in his home state by 0.8%, and he appears now more than three times as lethal there as Jeb (or any other candidate). Christie would have a very hard time in the state however! While Cruz continues to do shockingly well. Surely, Arkansas is a much more conservative state than your average state, further illustrated by how bad both of the moderates, Chris and Rand, do there.


Alaska:

Vs Rand Paul: R +7.4% (5 polls, down 0.6%)
Vs Bush: R +7% (5 polls, down 0.5%)
Vs Cruz: R +7%
Vs Christie: R +6.2% (6 polls, up 0.8%)
Vs Huckabee: R +4.25% (4 polls, unchanged)
Vs Rubio: R +1% (2 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: R +1%

Vs Palin: D +6.8% (6 polls, up 0.2%)

Alaska on the other hand, is a different game altogether, although it appears somewhat more moderate than Arkansas. Cruz does shockingly well in this state as well, although this is the very first time he's been tested in Alaska. On the other hand, Huckabee does pretty badly here (could it be because Alaskans generally are not that religious and also that the state has a considerably younger population than your average state?) On the same time, the candidate with the most modern approach and the most fresh ideas (and thus more of a moderate), Rand Paul, is leading the pack still in Alaska. Favourite daughter Sarah is not much of a favourite, she would usually do about 14.2% worse than Rand in the state, if the election turned out to be a match-up with Hillary. So instead of winning the state by 7, she would actually be losing the state by 7! All in all, Hillary improves her take on her GOP foes in Alaska with 0.6% from the previous consensus.

A slight improvement for Hillary in Alaska and a slightly more unfavorable picture for her in Arkansas means a pretty unchanged race overall. She thus continues to lead the tailor-made Republican (a superman type of candidate which in reality doesn't or won't exist) by a strong 6% nationally.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #107 on: September 23, 2014, 09:30:26 PM »

With PPP's release of its two newest polls in Alaska and Arkansas (see previous post for more details), we now have an impressive 175 state polls registered into the 2016 database.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 175.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Bush: R +3.25%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%

3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Arkansas: D +13.4%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3.25%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Louisiana (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 82 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 61 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 24.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #108 on: September 24, 2014, 09:25:44 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2014, 09:27:15 PM by eric82oslo »

With Roanoke doing its 3rd Virginia poll of the season, here's how it rolls in Virginia right now (current averages against Hillary):

Vs Christie: D +4.5% (11 polls, down 0.8%)
Vs Rubio: D +7.6% (5 polls)
Vs Bush: D +8.7% (3 polls)
Vs Bob McDonnell: D +9% (3 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +9.9% (10 polls, down 0.5%)
Vs Walker: D +11%
Vs Huckabee: D +11.5% (2 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: D +11.6% (5 polls, down 0.35%)
Vs Cruz: D +12.3% (3 polls)

A sharp deterioration of Christie's numbers in this crucial battleground state. Despite a grand total of 15 polls, some of the main contenders have hardly even been polled here, Jeb included. Virginia is now trending ever so slightly Democratic.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 176.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Bush: R +3.25%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%

3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Arkansas: D +13.4%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3.25%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Louisiana (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 82 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 61 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 25.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #109 on: September 27, 2014, 01:18:14 AM »

Gravis Marketing is showing Ran Paul 1% ahead of Clinton in their new North Carolina poll. That doesn't change much, as the previous 13 NC polls matching up the two candidates had Hillary with an average lead over him of almost 5%. It is still an improvement for Paul of 3% since Gravis last time polled this match up in NC. Anyhow, the new North Carolina averages now look this this:

Vs Bush: D +1.6% (11 polls)
Vs Christie: D +2.1% (11 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +3.4% (7 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +4.4% (14 polls, down 0.4% for Hillary)
Vs Rubio: D +7%
Vs Cruz: D +8% (5 polls)

In other words, it's basically an unchanged race.



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 177.


North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 27, 2014)


Current update as of September 27.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #110 on: September 30, 2014, 06:03:42 AM »
« Edited: September 30, 2014, 11:54:48 AM by eric82oslo »

Gravis has done it again, polled Wisconsin for the 2nd time. Paul Ryan went from leading Hillary by a point to now trailing her by a point, so basically still toss-up according to Gravis. Other pollsters may beg to disagree, as the Wisconsin averages will show:

Vs Paul Ryan: D +3.7% (7 polls, down 0.4%)
Vs Jeb Bush: D +7.5% (2 polls)
Vs Chris Christie: D +8.1% (4 polls)
Vs Scott Walker: D +9.2% (5 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +9.9% (3 polls)
Vs Mike Huckabee: D +12% (1 poll)
Vs Marco Rubio: D +15.1% (2 polls)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +16.5% (2 polls)

Unless Paul Ryan gets the nomination, Wisconsin seems to be a pretty easy win for Hillary. Ryan seems to be a lot more popular than governor Walker among voters in their shared home state.



We've also got a second poll to include in our database today from PPP, the 8th poll this season of Louisiana. It showed some great news once more for Jeb and Mike, while local son Bobby and the big mouth from New Jersey both continue to face bad odds in this cajun hot spot. New averages from Louisiana are:

Mike Huckabee: R +4.3% (3 polls, Hillary down 1.3%)
Jeb Bush: R +4.2% (5 polls, Hillary down 1%)
Rand Paul: R +1.5% (4 polls)
Ted Cruz: R +1% (2 polls, Hillary down 2%)
Paul Ryan: R +1% (2 polls)
Chris Christie: D +1.5% (4 polls, Hillary up 0.2%)
Bobby Jindal: D +2.5% (6 polls, Hillary down 0.3%)
Marco Rubio: D +3% (1 poll)

For what I think might be the first time in Louisiana, Huckabee is now, on average, ever so slightly favoured by the state's voters, although the advantage over Jeb is absolutely insignificant.



Finally, PPP also released its weekend poll of Iowa today. It's the 14th Iowa poll to match 2016 candidates so far.

Chris Christie: D +3.9% (13 polls, unchanged)
Bobby Jindal: D +4.7% (1 poll)
Rand Paul: D +5.7% (12 polls, Hillary up 0.1%)
Jeb Bush: D +7.0% (10 polls, Bush up 0.7%)
Marco Rubio: D +7.6% (6 polls)
Scott Walker: D +8.5% (3 polls)
Ted Cruz: D +9.5% (5 polls, Cruz up 0.3%)
Mike Pence: D +11.8% (1 poll)

The Iowa race thus remains unchanged, as the GOP leader Christie received the same score in this latest PPP poll as his previous average also indicated.


Three different states with three different leaders on the GOP side. Full update on every state will follow in my next post.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #111 on: September 30, 2014, 10:28:22 AM »
« Edited: October 01, 2014, 04:04:06 PM by eric82oslo »

With three new state polls from Louisiana, Wisconsin and Iowa (see previous post), Hillary is now in slightly worse state than she found herself yesterday, as her average lead over Paul Ryan was reduced by 0.4% in Wisconsin at the same time as she's now trailing the best Republican by 1% more in Louisiana than what was the general consensus up until now. There's now basically a tied first place between Huckabee and Bush in the Frenchified Southern state of Hurricane Katrina.

The total number of state polls included below has now reached 180.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%

3. California: R +14%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 30.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #112 on: October 01, 2014, 04:12:24 PM »

Quinnipiac has just polled New Jersey, which marks the 12th 2016 poll from Christie's home state. This time we have some good news for Hillary, as she improves slightly against the three competitors she was tested against. New state averages:

Vs Christie: D +8.4% (13 polls, Hillary up 0.15%)
Vs Bush: D +20% (3 polls, Hillary up 0.5%)
Vs Rand Paul: D +21% (5 polls, Hillary up 0.75%)
Vs Huckabee: D +23%
Vs Cruz: D +23%
Vs Paul Ryan: D +25%



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 181.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%

3. California: R +14%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of October 1.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #113 on: October 02, 2014, 04:14:37 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:34:30 PM by eric82oslo »

Today we got two more state polls, both produced by Gravis Marketing. It's the 15th poll out from Iowa and the 5th 2016 poll from Montana (2 of which were conducted by Gravis, while the 3 others were in the hands of PPP). Both polls show generally bad numbers for Hillary, but Rand Paul is also struggling in Montana compared to the latest PPP poll released from that state.

Here are the new Iowa averages against Madame Clinton:

Chris Christie: D +3.9% (13 polls)
Bobby Jindal: D +4.7% (1 poll)
Rand Paul: D +5.7% (12 polls)
Paul Ryan: D +6% (6 poll, Hillary down 1.2%)
Jeb Bush: D +6.4% (11 polls, Bush up 0.6%)
Marco Rubio: D +7.6% (6 polls)
Scott Walker: D +8.5% (3 polls)
Ted Cruz: D +9.5% (5 polls)
Mike Pence: D +11.8% (1 poll)

In other words, this new poll doesn't change the fundamentals in the great state of Iowa, with Christie still being the GOP chieftain there.



And these are the current match up averages for Hillary in Montana:

Chris Christie: R +11% (2 polls)
Ted Cruz: R +11% (1 poll)
Paul Ryan: R +10.5% (1 poll, down 3.5% for Hillary)
Rand Paul: R +10.5% (2 polls, up 2.5% for Hillary)
Marco Rubio: R +8% (1 poll)
Jeb Bush: R +7.5% (4 polls, down 0.5% for Hillary)

Due to the surprisingly bad numbers for Rand Paul in this poll, he is no longer leading the GOP pack in Montana. Neither are any of the other two polled by Gravis. Instead, there's now a dead heat in Montana by, believe it or not, Chris Christie and Ted Cruz! This is the first time Christie has taken the lead in a new state since many, many, many months ago - probably since before the roll-out of Bridgegate.


So two new polls and we happen to have three new leaders in those two states! Chris Christie loses his lead in Iowa, yet gains a new lead in Montana instead!

Updated maps and other stats are just around the corner (in the next post in fact).
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #114 on: October 02, 2014, 04:37:04 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:39:12 PM by eric82oslo »

So we got two new polls today from Iowa and Montana as my previous post detailed in close. In Iowa the race remains unchanged, while she improves somewhat on the imaginary tailor-made Republican in the hills are alive with the sound of music state of Montana. This actually marks the first time in 183 occations (polls) where Ted Cruz has actually been leading the pack in any single state (see Montana)!


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 183.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%

3. California: R +14%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 139 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
10. Ted Cruz favoured in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 2.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #115 on: October 02, 2014, 06:17:11 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:41:02 PM by eric82oslo »

The fact that both the California and Iowa numbers are determined solely by Gravis is quite unsettling.

As well as Connecticut and Nevada. Tongue

Update: Iowa numbers now changed after I realized that there have been "heaps" of match-ups actually including Paul Ryan in the state. Don't know how I managed to overlook that obvious fact.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #116 on: October 04, 2014, 06:14:32 PM »

So over the last few days, we've gotten three new polls released by Gravis Marketing. Surely one of the worst, most biased pollsters in the world, but what the heck. It is so lousy due to its reckless sample of the general population. The polls from Montana and Iowa have already been added into the database, so here comes the last poll update from Kansas. And yes, it happens to be another case of Bias with a big, big B. Look at the facts: In this poll, Republicans enjoyed an advantage over Democrats at a shocking 29% difference (54% versus 25%, or 54% versus 46% if we include independents as well)! What was perhaps even more shocking though, were its sample of age and education levels, with two out of three sampled voters being older than 50 and 85% having at least some college education. Enough said, its a long shot (I mean to the moon and back again, if not to another gallazy entirely) from being even remotely scientific. Now, enough ramble. I'm not appointing myself to be judge over polls and pollsters, although ever so often it's a good advice to point out certain details about specific polls in order not to give everyone the wrong impression of where things stand. As 538 pointed out recently, almost every single pollster in the US have a Republican bias, and very many of them a very strong Republican bias. Unsurprisingly, Gravis was amongst the group having very strong Republican bias, yet many more reputable pollsters had as well.

This Kansas poll, the 5th from the state, was the very first one not produced by PPP.
Let me cut down to the mere basics, I present you with the new averages:

Vs Jeb Bush: R +8% (4 polls, Hillary down 1%)
Vs Paul Ryan: R +7% (1 poll)
Vs Rand Paul: R +5.75% (4 polls, Hillary down 1.75%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: R +5% (3 polls)
Vs Marco Rubio: R +5% (1 poll)
Vs Chris Christie: R +4.3% (3 polls)

Vs Ted Cruz: D +1% (2 polls)

So every Republican candidate except for controversial Ted Cruz are still leading Hillary in Kansas, proving that it's still a Clear Republican state, despite the current troubles of Roberts and Brownback. It's no way 54% Republican though, as Gravis claims!
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #117 on: October 04, 2014, 06:32:37 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:44:33 PM by eric82oslo »

Gravis has polled Kansas, which means that Paul Ryan is no longer the king in that state, leaving that spot currently available for Jeb Bush only. Bush goes from +7% to +8% over Hillary in Kansas.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 184.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8%
+13.6% D improvement
(Updated on October 5, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Kansas: D +13.6%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 139 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
10. Ted Cruz favoured in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 5.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #118 on: October 06, 2014, 02:48:25 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:48:01 PM by eric82oslo »

PPP has polled Connecticut for the 1st time, joining Gravis as the 2nd pollster in the state. Unfortunately, PPP didn't include Ben Carson, who did very well with Gravis. However, there's now only a 1% difference between Carson and Christie in the state, so honestly it doesn't matter all that much. New Connecticut averages:

Vs Ben Carson: D +9%
Vs Christie: D +10%
Vs Bush: D +13%
Vs Rand Paul: D +17% (2 polls, Hillary up 2%)
Vs Huckabee: D +19%
Vs Cruz: D +22%



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 185.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8%
+13.6% D improvement
(Updated on October 5, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Kansas: D +13.6%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 139 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
10. Ted Cruz favoured in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 6.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #119 on: October 07, 2014, 11:50:35 AM »

PPP has polled Georgia for the third time over the last 20 months, actually this is the first time the state has been polled for 2016 since August last year, which happens to be 14 months ago. About time for an update in other words. And the race seems to have tilted ever so slightly towards Hillary, in line with continuous demographic changes in this rapidly-urbanizing state. 7 candidates were tested by PPP this time around, including Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and home boy Herman Cain, all for the first time. Except for Jeb Bush, they all trailed Madam Clinton. Here are the new match up averages for Georgia as they stand two years (or 25 months) prior to the next presidential election:

Vs Jeb Bush: R +0.5% (2 polls, Hillary down 0.5%, new leader!)

Vs Chris Christie: D +1.5% (2 polls, Hillary up 3.5%, former leader)
Vs Mike Huckabee: D +3% (1 poll)
Vs Marco Rubio: D +3% (1 poll)
Vs Herman Cain: D +3% (1 poll)
Vs Rand Paul: D +4% (2 polls, Hillary down 1%)
Vs Paul Ryan: D +4% (2 polls)
Vs Newt Gingrich: D +5.7% (3 polls, Hillary up 0.2%)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +6% (1 poll)
Vs Sarah Palin: D +13% (1 poll)

This means that Jeb Bush is taking over the hegemony in another state, and once again it's his supposedly strongest competitor, Chris Christie, who is facing the harsh dethroning.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #120 on: October 07, 2014, 12:12:19 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:30:58 PM by eric82oslo »

With Jeb Bush taking over the leadership position from Chris Christie in the great state (literally 16 EVs strong) of Georgia, Hillary is finally receiving some comforting news on the state level for the upcoming race supposely beginning in just three months from now. With PPP's third poll from Georgia, the state thus moves strongly towards a toss up status, going from R +2% to R +0.5%.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 186.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Bush: R +0.5%
+7.3% D improvement
(Updated October 7, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8%
+13.6% D improvement
(Updated on October 5, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Kansas: D +13.6%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Georgia: D +7.3%
14. Maine: R +7%
15. Alaska: D +6.6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Georgia: R +0.5%
Arizona: R +1%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 123 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Georgia (!), North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 90 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
10. Ted Cruz favoured in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 7.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #121 on: October 07, 2014, 02:31:49 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:49:56 PM by eric82oslo »

Updated today, October 7!

To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far (from 186 individual polls across 32 states), I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. Rhode Island - 14 EVs (still not polled)
5. Maryland - 24 EVs (still not polled)
6. New York - 53 EVs
7. Massachusetts - 64 EVs (still not polled)
8. Delaware - 67 EVs (still not polled)
9. Illinois - 87 EVs (still not polled)
10. Washington - 99 EVs (still not polled)
11. New Mexico - 104 EVs
12. Oregon - 111 EVs
13. California - 166 EVs
14. Connecticut - 173 EVs
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Michigan - 207 EVs
18. Ohio - 225 EVs
19. Minnesota - 235 EVs
20. Florida - 264 EVs

21. Virginia - 277 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

22. Iowa - 283 EVs
23. Wisconsin - 293 EVs
24. Pennsylvania - 313 EVs
25. Nevada - 319 EVs
26. New Hampshire - 323 EVs
27. North Carolina - 338 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

28. Georgia - 354 EVs
29. Arizona - 365 EVs
30. Colorado - 374 EVs
31. Louisiana - 382 EVs
32. Kentucky - 390 EVs
33. South Carolina - 399 EVs
34. Mississippi - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Kansas - 452 EVs
38. Missouri - 462 EVs (still not polled)
39. Indiana - 473 EVs (still not polled)
40. Arkansas - 479 EVs
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. North Dakota - 493 EVs (still not polled)
45. Tennessee - 504 EVs (still not polled)
46. Nebraska - 509 EVs (still not polled)
47. Alabama - 518 EVs (still not polled)
48. Wyoming - 521 EVs
49. Idaho - 525 EVs (still not polled)
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)


Only minor changes since last update two months ago, despite having added about 30 more polls, however we've gotten a new tipping point state! It is now Virginia which tips the election to Hillary and the Democrats, while it was Wisconsin back in August. No new states have been added since August (and none will probably be added until next month either, the earliest). Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania all remain crucial battlegrounds though, competiting for that ultimate tipping point status.

This actually means that she could theoretically win the popular vote by up to 1.6%, yet still lose the Electoral College to a hypothetically tailor-made Republican opponent, that fairytale, fantasy creature. If this holds true until election day, she would actually reverse a trend and precedent set by Obama, where the Democratic ticket has a structural advantage in presidential elections.

Washington, Illinois, Delaware, Missouri, Indiana and Massachusetts would be very interesting to have polled next.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #122 on: October 08, 2014, 03:55:47 PM »

PPP will be polling Kansas and Idaho (! for the very first time ever in fact) this weekend. Smiley
I hope they'll poll South Dakota soon as well.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #123 on: October 12, 2014, 10:29:50 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:23:31 PM by eric82oslo »

Selzer has polled the 2016 race in Iowa for the first time, and it's also the first poll there to include Mitt Romney, who is shown leading Hillary by a point. Thus he has become the new king of the Iowa hill. Rand Paul improves there as well, while everyone else struggles against Hillary. It's the 16th Iowa poll from any pollster. New averages:

Mitt Romney: R +1% (1 poll)
Chris Christie: D +4.0% (14 polls, up 0.1% for Hillary)
Bobby Jindal: D +4.7% (1 poll)
Paul Ryan: D +5.3% (7 polls, down 0.7% for Hillary)
Rand Paul: D +5.5% (14 polls, down 0.2% for Hillary)
Jeb Bush: D +6.5% (12 polls, up 0.1% for Hillary)
Marco Rubio: D +7.5% (7 polls, up 0.1% for Hillary)
Scott Walker: D +8.5% (3 polls)
Ted Cruz: D +9.6% (6 polls, up 0.1% for Hillary)
Mike Pence: D +11.8% (1 poll)

This means that Romney is now the new leader in Iowa, dethroning Christie from that position.
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eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #124 on: October 12, 2014, 10:31:24 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:01:06 PM by eric82oslo »

The 16th 2016 poll was just released from Iowa (see my previous post), worsening Hillary's score there by 1% as Romney takes over the lead in the state from Paul Ryan.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 187.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Bush: R +0.5%
+7.3% D improvement
(Updated October 7, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Mitt Romney: R +1%
+6.8% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on October 12, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8%
+13.6% D improvement
(Updated on October 5, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.4%

+2.1% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 5.9% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 262 EVs (in 17 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 137 EVs (in 15 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 65.7% of all EVs awarded, against only 34.3% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 9 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Kansas: D +13.6%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Georgia: D +7.3%
14. Maine: R +7%
15. Iowa: R +6.8%

16. Alaska: D +6.6%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%
18. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 18 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +5.9%

Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Georgia: R +0.5%
Iowa: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favored in 9 of 32 states (for 117 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favored in 6 states (Florida, Georgia (!), North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 90 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favored in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favored in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favored in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favored in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favored in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favored in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Mitt Romney favored in 1 state (Iowa (!) - for 6 EVs)
10. Susana Martinez favored in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
11. Ted Cruz favoured in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 12.
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