PPP: Hillary leads all GOPers, Biden not far behind

[Mr. Morden]

I'm confused.  I don't see the numbers you're providing here in any of the crosstabs on the poll release.  They're just in the "press release" portion at the top.  [Edit: Oops.  I see them now.  I'm an idiot.]

It also looks like you confused Paul Ryan with Rand Paul.  The matchups here are with Ryan, not Paul.  Should be:

Clinton 50%
Ryan 44%

Biden 49%
Ryan 45%

[Mr. Morden]

Also, how crazy would the Christie vs. Clinton electoral map be?  Last week's PPP poll of Texas had Clinton leading Christie by 2 in Texas, but she's only up by 5 on him nationally?  Only a 3 point difference between Texas and the national average?

[Mr. Morden]

I'm confused.  I don't see the numbers you're providing here in any of the crosstabs on the poll release.  They're just in the "press release" portion at the top.  And you have a few numbers wrong.  Christie vs. Clinton should be:

Clinton 46%
Christie 42%

It also looks like you confused Paul Ryan with Rand Paul.  The matchups here are with Paul, not Ryan.  Should be:

Clinton 50%
Ryan 44%

Biden 49%
Ryan 45%

Sorry for that. I guess I saw Paul and assumed Rand.

No problem.  I also messed up on the Christie/Clinton numbers, and have now edited them in my post.  PPP itself seems to have made a typo in their press release, as it differs from what's in the poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Favorable/unfavorable % among all voters, ranked by net favorability...

Christie 44/22% for +22%
Warren 28/20% for +8%
Clinton 49/42% for +7%
Rubio 35/29% for +6%
Biden 48/44% for +4%
Huckabee 42/38% for +4%
Ryan 44/41% for +3%
Bush 35/33% for +2%
Martinez 13/15% for -2%
Jindal 26/29% for -3%
Patrick 10/13% for -3%
Rand Paul 35/39% for -4%
Warner 8/14% for -6%
Gillibrand 11/18% for-7%
O'Malley 6/13% for -7%
Schweitzer 4/11% for -7%
Cuomo 24/33% for -9%
Perry 26/41% for -15%

Christie is still hugely popular among those who know who he is.  But only 66% have an opinion of him, so his name recognition still lags Clinton's.  If Christie had Clinton's name recognition, he might well be beating her in the head-to-head matchup.  Rubio's name recognition has gained somewhat, and has almost caught up to Christie's (still well behind that of Clinton, Biden, and Ryan).

Christie favorability by party
Dems 42/21% for +21%
GOP 48/21% for +27%
Indies 41/26% for +15%
He also has net positive favorable ratings among blacks and Hispanics, as well as all age demographics.

Clinton's favorability really seems to be on the decline.  She's at +7, down from +15 from last month, which was before the Benghazi hearings.  There's also an enormous gender gap on her favorability, much bigger than for any other candidate.

Clinton favorability:
men 43/49% for -6%
women 56/35% for +21%
She also now has net unfavorable marks among Independents and whites.

[Mr. Morden]

I think it's the same problem we saw in 2012: state polls and national polls pointing to two different maps.

That was largely a consequence of different pollsters doing state polls as opposed to those doing national polls.  In this case, it's exactly the same pollster doing both.

In any case, we need to get more state polls of Christie vs. Clinton to see if they really do point towards there being a strange map.  Even if we just consider the state polls, PPP had a MN poll a couple of weeks ago that had Clinton leading Christie by just 6.  She's leading him by 2 points in TX, but only 6 in MN?  Again, either one of these is an outlier, or the Christie / Clinton electoral map looks really strange.

[Mr. Morden]

How come moderates/indies don't like Hillary?

The poll shows her with a net favorable rating among moderates.  It's Independents where she's now underwater, if we take this poll as truth.

Clinton favorable / unfavorable:

Dems 80/12% for +68%
GOP 17/74% for -57%
Indies 39/47% for -8%

very liberal 77/18% for +59%
somewhat liberal 84/9% for +75%
moderate 56/27% for +29%
somewhat conservative 29/63% for -34%
very conservative 13/83% for -70%