PPP: Hillary leads all GOPers, Biden not far behind
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:07:33 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  PPP: Hillary leads all GOPers, Biden not far behind
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: PPP: Hillary leads all GOPers, Biden not far behind  (Read 2217 times)
Obamanation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 411
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 07, 2013, 05:50:50 PM »
« edited: February 08, 2013, 05:03:33 PM by Obamanation »

Hillary Clinton
Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 42%

Joe Biden
Favorable: 48%
Unfavorable: 44%

Clinton: 49%
J. Bush: 43%

Clinton: 46%
Christie: 41%

Clinton: 49%
Rubio: 41%

Clinton: 50%
Ryan: 44%

Biden: 48%
J. Bush: 45%

Biden: 44%
Christie: 44%

Biden: 48%
Rubio: 43%

Biden: 49%
Ryan: 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_207.pdf
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2013, 06:05:55 PM »
« Edited: February 07, 2013, 08:24:27 PM by Mr. Morden »

I'm confused.  I don't see the numbers you're providing here in any of the crosstabs on the poll release.  They're just in the "press release" portion at the top.  [Edit: Oops.  I see them now.  I'm an idiot.]

It also looks like you confused Paul Ryan with Rand Paul.  The matchups here are with Ryan, not Paul.  Should be:

Clinton 50%
Ryan 44%

Biden 49%
Ryan 45%
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2013, 06:08:30 PM »
« Edited: February 07, 2013, 08:24:43 PM by Mr. Morden »

Also, how crazy would the Christie vs. Clinton electoral map be?  Last week's PPP poll of Texas had Clinton leading Christie by 2 in Texas, but she's only up by 5 on him nationally?  Only a 3 point difference between Texas and the national average?
Logged
Obamanation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 411
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2013, 08:12:44 PM »

I'm confused.  I don't see the numbers you're providing here in any of the crosstabs on the poll release.  They're just in the "press release" portion at the top.  And you have a few numbers wrong.  Christie vs. Clinton should be:

Clinton 46%
Christie 42%

It also looks like you confused Paul Ryan with Rand Paul.  The matchups here are with Paul, not Ryan.  Should be:

Clinton 50%
Ryan 44%

Biden 49%
Ryan 45%


Sorry for that. I guess I saw Paul and assumed Rand.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2013, 08:25:31 PM »

I'm confused.  I don't see the numbers you're providing here in any of the crosstabs on the poll release.  They're just in the "press release" portion at the top.  And you have a few numbers wrong.  Christie vs. Clinton should be:

Clinton 46%
Christie 42%

It also looks like you confused Paul Ryan with Rand Paul.  The matchups here are with Paul, not Ryan.  Should be:

Clinton 50%
Ryan 44%

Biden 49%
Ryan 45%


Sorry for that. I guess I saw Paul and assumed Rand.

No problem.  I also messed up on the Christie/Clinton numbers, and have now edited them in my post.  PPP itself seems to have made a typo in their press release, as it differs from what's in the poll.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2013, 08:45:41 PM »

Favorable/unfavorable % among all voters, ranked by net favorability...

Christie 44/22% for +22%
Warren 28/20% for +8%
Clinton 49/42% for +7%
Rubio 35/29% for +6%
Biden 48/44% for +4%
Huckabee 42/38% for +4%
Ryan 44/41% for +3%
Bush 35/33% for +2%
Martinez 13/15% for -2%
Jindal 26/29% for -3%
Patrick 10/13% for -3%
Rand Paul 35/39% for -4%
Warner 8/14% for -6%
Gillibrand 11/18% for-7%
O'Malley 6/13% for -7%
Schweitzer 4/11% for -7%
Cuomo 24/33% for -9%
Perry 26/41% for -15%

Christie is still hugely popular among those who know who he is.  But only 66% have an opinion of him, so his name recognition still lags Clinton's.  If Christie had Clinton's name recognition, he might well be beating her in the head-to-head matchup.  Rubio's name recognition has gained somewhat, and has almost caught up to Christie's (still well behind that of Clinton, Biden, and Ryan).

Christie favorability by party
Dems 42/21% for +21%
GOP 48/21% for +27%
Indies 41/26% for +15%
He also has net positive favorable ratings among blacks and Hispanics, as well as all age demographics.

Clinton's favorability really seems to be on the decline.  She's at +7, down from +15 from last month, which was before the Benghazi hearings.  There's also an enormous gender gap on her favorability, much bigger than for any other candidate.

Clinton favorability:
men 43/49% for -6%
women 56/35% for +21%
She also now has net unfavorable marks among Independents and whites.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2013, 08:51:43 PM »

Christie has a 48% favorable rating with Republicans, 42% with Democrats, and 41% with Independents.   What a guy.

Biden has better ratings than Hillary among moderates (+10) and independents (+3), but it cancels out with more Republican/Conservative hate.
Logged
Obamanation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 411
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2013, 01:30:29 AM »

Also, how crazy would the Christie vs. Clinton electoral map be?  Last week's PPP poll of Texas had Clinton leading Christie by 2 in Texas, but she's only up by 5 on him nationally?  Only a 3 point difference between Texas and the national average?


I think it's the same problem we saw in 2012: state polls and national polls pointing to two different maps. As 2012 shows, I would trust the state polls.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2013, 01:57:39 AM »

I think it's the same problem we saw in 2012: state polls and national polls pointing to two different maps.

That was largely a consequence of different pollsters doing state polls as opposed to those doing national polls.  In this case, it's exactly the same pollster doing both.

In any case, we need to get more state polls of Christie vs. Clinton to see if they really do point towards there being a strange map.  Even if we just consider the state polls, PPP had a MN poll a couple of weeks ago that had Clinton leading Christie by just 6.  She's leading him by 2 points in TX, but only 6 in MN?  Again, either one of these is an outlier, or the Christie / Clinton electoral map looks really strange.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2013, 02:03:28 AM »

Maybe we will have a full map shift.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2013, 02:15:30 AM »

How come moderates/indies don't like Hillary?
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2013, 02:52:01 AM »


The poll shows her with a net favorable rating among moderates.  It's Independents where she's now underwater, if we take this poll as truth.

Clinton favorable / unfavorable:

Dems 80/12% for +68%
GOP 17/74% for -57%
Indies 39/47% for -8%

very liberal 77/18% for +59%
somewhat liberal 84/9% for +75%
moderate 56/27% for +29%
somewhat conservative 29/63% for -34%
very conservative 13/83% for -70%
Logged
Knives
solopop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,460
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2013, 03:55:19 AM »

People who call themselves 'independent' generally vote for the same party every election, I think it's silly the get polled separately.
Logged
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2013, 05:28:17 AM »

This poll seems to seriously contradict most others when you look at Hillary's favorables. I don't know what to make of that, especially when you look at her numbers in Texas. I could potentially see these numbers in light of an actual announcement and campaign, but I just can't see her underwater with Independents at this point.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2013, 12:33:11 PM »

With much lower name recognition, you can expect all of the Republican numbers to go up, but I know I'm just stating the obvious here.

Right now, if Christie can get through the primary without completely selling out to the right, I think he'd walk this out of the park, even against Hillary.
Logged
Jackson
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2013, 03:36:36 AM »


Most independents are conservatives who think the Republican Party is too mainstream.
Logged
Obamanation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 411
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2013, 05:17:32 PM »


Most independents are conservatives who think the Republican Party is too mainstream.

Completely agree. Heck, "indies" voted for Romney by 5 points nationally while Obama won by 4. Incidentally, this explains the decrease in Republican party ID. Moderates are the new bellwether.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.034 seconds with 13 queries.