CBO has unemployement at 7.8% in 2014

[jaichind]

See

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907_Outlook_2012-2-5_Corrected.pdf

CBO projects average unemployement at 7.8% in 2014, which seems reasonable to me. If that is the case I really see how the GOP not gain seats in the House and Senete races. 

Reading the report, I feel CBO is too optimistic on revenues over the next ten years.  It has income taxes at 7.3% of GDP in 2012 and 7.9% of GDP in 2013 which is reasonable in light of the Obama tax increase which was just imposed back in Jan 2013.  But then it has income taxes going from 7.9% of GDP going to 9.8% by 2023 which I really doubt.  Only real way is significant capital gains and greater income inequality pushing high income people into even higher brackets.  So either this projection is not realistic and the mid-term deficit outlook is a lot worst than CBO thinks, or the Obama project to reduce income inequity will completly fail, or most likely both.

[Drop Billionaires, Not Bombs]

I usually take outward projections like this with a grain of salt.  How accurate has the CBO been in the past on these things, anyway?

[Mr.Phips]

I usually take outward projections like this with a grain of salt.  How accurate has the CBO been in the past on these things, anyway?

Not very at all. 

[Benj]

I usually take outward projections like this with a grain of salt.  How accurate has the CBO been in the past on these things, anyway?

For equal comparison, at this time in 2011 they projected 8.2% unemployment in Q4 2012. The actual rate for the quarter was 7.8%. Not terrible, but a slight overestimate. However, their projection released at this time in 2012 was quite bad; they did not predict unemployment to drop below 8% until 2015 at the earliest (projecting 8.4% unemployment in Q4 2014).

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/21999
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43539

[badgate]

^I can't be the only one who feels like they're hedging their bets.