MA-05: Options to replace Markey if elected to U.S. Senate

[seanNJ9]

Lets pretend for a second that Markey was elected to the U.S. Senate and that he resigned from the House of Reps. Who's the best options for that house seat? I feel like the Democrats would be making a big mistake if they didn't elect a young riser. Here are are two names, feel free to add to it.

Sen. Sonia Chang-Díaz (Feel like she's the best option. Represents Suffolk's 2nd district, Is 34 years old, first Latina elected to the Massachusetts Senate in 2008. Hispanic and Chinese decent, father was an astronaut for NASA,  I believe she's the best option)
Sen. Katherine Clark (Not super young like Diaz, but I like her. Represents the Middlesex and Essex district)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Clark would be awesome. Never cared for Spilka, personally.

[SPC]

Scott Brown?

[smoltchanov]

Scott Brown?

An irony?))) I am sure he got no more then 35-37% in this superdemocratic district during his last Senate campaign

[Brittain33]

Chang-Diaz's district is in Capuano's district, so this wouldn't be the right place. Markey's district is not particularly diverse.

I've lost track of the legislators here so don't know if there are any standouts. A liberal dream would be Carl Sciortino, a house member from Medford. Odds are any open seat turns into a massive primary where each legislator pulls out their geographic base while a couple stand out as the liberal or the conservative candidate.

If we're lucky, Dan the Roman will drop by and tell us who will run and who will finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

[Roemerista]

I would be shocked if Clark didn't run. She really is a climber, the word on the street is she is looking to move up--maybe to a district DA job, or this.

[Zioneer]

I don't know much about this district, but Chang-Diaz sounds like a solid choice, if a bit young.

[Brittain33]

Carl Sciortino's running! He just announced on FB.

http://www.carlforcongress.com/

[justfollowingtheelections]

Carl Sciortino's running! He just announced on FB.

http://www.carlforcongress.com/

Isn't it a little early to do so?  What if Markey doesn't win the Senate seat?

[Brittain33]

Carl Sciortino's running! He just announced on FB.

http://www.carlforcongress.com/

Isn't it a little early to do so?  What if Markey doesn't win the Senate seat?

Yes and no. There's no cost for him to do this, and lots of upside in getting his name out there and starting to raise money as the progressive candidate in what will be a crowded and regional primary. If Markey loses the primary or the general unexpectedly, all the attention falls on him, and everyone will forget about Carl, who will meanwhile have raised some money and his profile.

[seanNJ9]

State Rep. Will Brownsberger will run if Markey wins.

http://atr.rollcall.com/massachusetts-state-representative-announces-for-markey-seat/

 

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[Brittain33]

State Rep. Will Brownsberger will run if Markey wins.

http://atr.rollcall.com/massachusetts-state-representative-announces-for-markey-seat/

 

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Sciortino fired the opening gun for the land rush, and right as Nemo was hitting and shutting down the media. Pretty clever.

[smoltchanov]

Sciortino and Brownsberger are, essentially, the same for me - uberprogressives. Not especially surprising, because district is solidly liberal, but - somewhat boring: all campaign is reduced to "who will outprogressive whom".

The only question of interest to me is of rather academic sort: if Republicans would somehow nominate a Jacob Javits-type candidate (i.e - genuine liberal) - which percentage he/she would get? "Normal" for this district 30-35% or higher?))))

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sciortino and Brownsberger are, essentially, the same for me - uberprogressives. Not especially surprising, because district is solidly liberal, but - somewhat boring: all campaign is reduced to "who will outprogressive whom".

The only question of interest to me is of rather academic sort: if Republicans would somehow nominate a Jacob Javits-type candidate (i.e - genuine liberal) - which percentage he/she would get? "Normal" for this district 30-35% or higher?))))

I was going to say how there was zero chance of that, but then remembered the 2008 Montana Senate race.

[smoltchanov]

I was going to say how there was zero chance of that, but then remembered the 2008 Montana Senate race.

I remember that too. But that Republican candidate was pro-life)))) May be - because of Catholic upbringing (Jim Oberstar-style), but still. I can't imagine such candidate here with > 0% chances...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Someone like Mary Z. Connaughton could get in the mid-to-high 40s as a Republican, especially against someone like Sciortino who is very liberal and from the wrong part of the district. Not that I think she'd run.

[Brittain33]

from the wrong part of the district

I'm not sure I follow the argument that he's from the wrong side of the district. The shape of this district is deceiving; if you draw a line from Watertown to Woburn, more than half of the district's population lives east of that line, even if it's only a small part of the area. This district now includes a sizable chunk of Cambridge, too. Metrowest may be the swingiest part of the district, but it's also a minority of the population. Only about 200,000 people live outside 128.

Also, the district is D+16.

[Mr.Phips]

Someone like Mary Z. Connaughton could get in the mid-to-high 40s as a Republican, especially against someone like Sciortino who is very liberal and from the wrong part of the district. Not that I think she'd run.

Any Republican getting over 40% here would be nothing short of amazing.  Didnt even Scott Brown solidly lose this district when he won in 2010?

[Benj]

Someone like Mary Z. Connaughton could get in the mid-to-high 40s as a Republican, especially against someone like Sciortino who is very liberal and from the wrong part of the district. Not that I think she'd run.

Any Republican getting over 40% here would be nothing short of amazing.  Didnt even Scott Brown solidly lose this district when he won in 2010?

IIRC Brown got 37% of the vote in this district in the 2010 special. Edit: Check this on DRA as it didn't look right on the 2010 town map. Turns out Brown got 43% in 2010. 37% might have been 2012. Either way, not a competitive number, and in immensely R-favorable conditions. This district actually had a much smaller Obama-Coakley difference than others in the state, mainly because the Democratic vote held up very well in the Route 2 corridor compared to elsewhere in the state.

To be competitive, a Republican would have to be winning over not only MetroWest (much of which didn't even vote for Brown) and the somewhat socially conservative areas on the east of the district like Melrose, Stoneham and Revere but also the Arlington/Lexington/Belmont liberals, who voted solidly for Coakley. Those two demographics are pretty much exact opposites--as a Republican, you have to tack economically populist and socially conservative to win MetroWest and economically "responsible" and socially liberal to be competitive in the Route 2 corridor, but you can't do both.

No Republican is going to win >45% of the vote in a district that looks like the below. It includes half of Cambridge, FFS.





Also, Moderate: About three-quarters of the population in the district is in Lincoln/Waltham and points east (543k of 727k). I don't know how this is supposed to be "the MetroWest district".

[smoltchanov]

Well, i though about 40-45% numbers, i.e - what Brown got in very favorable 2010. But with Cambridge even that seems to be unlikely

[Mr.Phips]

Someone like Mary Z. Connaughton could get in the mid-to-high 40s as a Republican, especially against someone like Sciortino who is very liberal and from the wrong part of the district. Not that I think she'd run.

Any Republican getting over 40% here would be nothing short of amazing.  Didnt even Scott Brown solidly lose this district when he won in 2010?

IIRC Brown got 37% of the vote in this district in the 2010 special. Edit: Check this on DRA as it didn't look right on the 2010 town map. Turns out Brown got 43% in 2010. 37% might have been 2012. Either way, not a competitive number, and in immensely R-favorable conditions. This district actually had a much smaller Obama-Coakley difference than others in the state, mainly because the Democratic vote held up very well in the Route 2 corridor compared to elsewhere in the state.

To be competitive, a Republican would have to be winning over not only MetroWest (much of which didn't even vote for Brown) and the somewhat socially conservative areas on the east of the district like Melrose, Stoneham and Revere but also the Arlington/Lexington/Belmont liberals, who voted solidly for Coakley. Those two demographics are pretty much exact opposites--as a Republican, you have to tack economically populist and socially conservative to win MetroWest and economically "responsible" and socially liberal to be competitive in the Route 2 corridor, but you can't do both.

No Republican is going to win >45% of the vote in a district that looks like the below. It includes half of Cambridge, FFS.





Also, Moderate: About three-quarters of the population in the district is in Lincoln/Waltham and points east (543k of 727k). I don't know how this is supposed to be "the MetroWest district".

Well in that case, id now say that a Republican getting even a third of the vote in this district would be impressive.