Ecuadorian general election, 2013

[Velasco]

Correa is arguably even worse than Chavez.

How can you say this about my friend Rafael? He's a good guy! He attended a very Catholic university and also he's a Chicago boy! Look:

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafael_Correa

Now seriously, what's the meaning of "arguably even worse" in this context? And from a Marxist-Lacanian perspective, what's your analysis?

[Velasco]

Your description of Correa's Alianza PAIS resembles me a bit the present-day Ortega's FSLN (sandinistas), I don't know why. Acosta would be like Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS). Jarquín got 6.4% in 2006 and in 2011 the MRS went in coalition with the center-right PLI (all-together-against-Ortega). Daniel Ortega -in my opinion, this ally of Chávez is arguably even worse than Correa because is corrupt- got 38% in 2006 and 62.7% in 2011.

I'm going a bit off-topic. Your posts are very interesting, Sir John. Hope that you could tell us more about Lasso, the apparent runner-up.

[Velasco]

Could a Spanish-speaker poster explained me what “Madera de Guerrero” actually means, I don't get it. The translation I founded (wooden warrior) looks like strange. The term apparently came from a Pepe Jaramillo's song about Guayaquil's inhabitants.

I didn't hear Jaramillo's song (maybe it's in YouTube ) but someone with "Madera de Guerrero" is a person who has the same makings of warriors. For example, "no tengo madera de héroe" roughly means something like "I wasn't born to be a Hero"

[Velasco]

No reaction

I'll have to devote time this weekend to read all of this (I am sorry, but I've been logged in scarcely in the last days) but thank you in advance. Since I have similar problems to write long texts in English and most of the times I lack patience to do it, I estimate your effort in what it's worth.

We'll see what happens next Sunday (Correa's landslide, I believe). Someone describes in an article in a Spain's newspaper today the political Ecuadoran system as " caudillismo * plebiscitario ". What do you think about it?

*Caudillo means leader, political boss or tyrant.

[Velasco]

Wow, this is really fascinating. Alfaro, Velasco Ibarra and the others are quite interesting characters and I don't know really very much about them but their names.

Digressions about Ecuadorian demographics
 Beside Montubio, the derogatory term of Cholo is also used to label another type of Mestizos. I don't know what this term covers exactly. Cholos seems to be rather associated with the Sierra but they are apparently also present in the Coastal province of Manabí. Cholos are considered as being supportive of Lucio Gutiérrez. I also found the term of Longo and have no idea to what it referred to.

In Peru the term cholo describes contemptuously mestizos with indigenous blood (from La Sierra). I've read often this term in Peruvian writers (Vargas Llosa, Bryce Echenique, etcetera). According to some of those novels, the Velasco Alvarado regime in Peru was regarded by the Peruvian oligarchy as a cholo regime.

[Velasco]

The Correa's vid "the bycicle" is indeed good but I enjoyed "Abdalá Bucaram & Los Iracundos". See, in some programs of humour in Spain's TV there's done jeer of videos of certain bizarre Peruvian singers. Bucaram is even better and, in addition, the image of the guy descending in helicopter over the the slum ("El Loco") is unpayable. "El reyecito" is fine, but the animation resembles me too much The Lion King.

[Velasco]

I have the CEDATOS' page opened right now and the percentages differ a bit from the ones that you posted. However, it's not important: Correa has a 58.8%, Lasso 20% and Gutiérrez 5,8%. The poll is also interesting because it provides regional results.
Amazonia: Correa 43.8%; Gutiérrez 20.1%; Lasso 18.3%; Acosta 6.4%.
Sierra: Correa 55%; Lasso 22,2%; Gutiérrez 6.8%; Rodas 3.9%; Acosta 3.8%
Costa: Correa 63.7% (!!!); Lasso 18.1%; Noboa 4.2%; Gutiérrez 3.3%.

[Velasco]

The projection of the rapid count that gives the National Electoral Council is as follows:

Rafael Correa 56.7%; Guillermo Lasso 23.3%; Lucio Gutiérrez 6.6%; Mauricio Rodas 4%; Álvaro Noboa 3.7%; Alberto Acosta 3.2%; Norman Wray 1.3% and Nelson Zavala 1.2%.

http://www.cne.gob.ec/ProyeccionPresidencial.pdf

It's not possible to extract more information from the CNE site by the moment.

[Velasco]

The majority of Alianza PAIS in the legislative Assembly will allow Correa to pass his controversial projects on media legislation. Correa depicts some Ecuadoran press as "corrupt", "manipulative" and "mercantilist". El Comercio article linked by Sir John makes a parallelism between Ecuador and Argentina; in both countries the opposition forces are weak and fragmented at this point.

In the Spain's newspaper El País, the special correspondent sent to cover the election marks that Correa was the candidate who had more time in the public media and also the only one with charisma and the one with better propaganda. The article mentions the Correa's video "La Bicicleta", showing the president crossing the country on a bicycle and, by the way, showing the thousands of Km. constructed or repaired in the national road network, thanks to the undeniable economic growth in the last years -mostly due to the profits of the oil extraction-. But Correa's critics note that the image of an ecologist president riding a bicycle is far away from reality because, as one article by Fabian Corral in El Comercio says: "they are stealing the landscape from us".

From the balcony, it was possible to see the Cayambe, the Antisana and the Cotopaxi. Less spectacular, also they were in the horizon the Sincholagua, the black eyebrow of the Rumiñahui, the toothed sierra of El Puntas and the pyramid of the Illiniza. They are not anymore. Now there are a mass of cement, a presumptuous and ugly thing, a mass that, with its brutal bad taste finished with the landscape. There is the modern city, this that means 'development', plenty of ugliness and trash, of hasty car drivers and new riches fascinated in their bilge.

However, Acosta, the most vocal opponent of Correa on environmental issues, had a very disappointing result.

[Velasco]

I think that your maps are fine. It's a good idea including the swings of Correa and his leftist opponents in 2009 and 2013; both maps seem to be mirror images in some departments of the coast. Maybe it would be better including these two and the other swing maps in a separate image for better comparison. I guess that you used Paint.

Congratulations for your great work here.