Labrador by-election and results thread
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  Labrador by-election and results thread
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Author Topic: Labrador by-election and results thread  (Read 3748 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #25 on: May 13, 2013, 07:25:04 PM »

80/91: Jones 5010 (50.4%), Penashue 2852 (28.7%), Borlase 2029 (20.6%).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #26 on: May 13, 2013, 07:55:30 PM »

Borlase has conceded, Jones delivering her victory speech right now. Local journos all saying that this was a local race, and I agree with them 100%.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #27 on: May 13, 2013, 08:20:02 PM »

Turnout is 54% and counting. Labrador seems to have high turnouts for by-elections, sometimes higher than general elections.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #28 on: May 13, 2013, 08:26:25 PM »

Penashue has also conceded, sourly saying that Labrador also lost. Good riddance.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #29 on: May 13, 2013, 08:42:09 PM »

Penashue has also conceded, sourly saying that Labrador also lost. Good riddance.

How gracious.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #30 on: May 13, 2013, 08:50:20 PM »

More graciousness: he tells CBC reporter Peter Cowan (whom he attacked at the beginning, if we recall) that he wasn't sure whether "it was the way CBC defined me" or other issues that led to his defeat. LOL.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #31 on: May 13, 2013, 09:10:10 PM »

I guess Forum was basically right. Final result: Jones 5814 (48.2%), Penashue 3922 (32.5%), Borlase 2273 (18.3%). Last polls to report were advance ones.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #32 on: May 13, 2013, 09:12:50 PM »

Tory spin: Liberals underperformed, therefore they lose. I was a bit surprised at Jones ending under 50.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #33 on: May 13, 2013, 09:23:20 PM »

It's pretty much what I expected. 50-30-20.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #34 on: May 13, 2013, 09:50:57 PM »

Tory spin: Liberals underperformed, therefore they lose. I was a bit surprised at Jones ending under 50.

Penashue had some staying power. Suspect we won't have another shot for 20 years.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #35 on: May 13, 2013, 10:26:03 PM »

As I said in my blog, a sub-50 results would be a loss for the Liberals. They should've done better.
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cp
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« Reply #36 on: May 14, 2013, 10:21:58 AM »

As I said in my blog, a sub-50 results would be a loss for the Liberals. They should've done better.

It's a touch out of character for you to paraphrase Tory talking points, Earl Wink

In all seriousness, I think putting that qualifier on the results is somewhat arbitrary, and perhaps a bit misleading. 48.2% of the vote and a 16 point lead on the runner up is a hefty margin by any estimation, especially in a FPTP three-way.

Case in point, the turnout yesterday was significantly higher than in the 2011 election (60% vs 51%), which means that the Liberals actually accumulated more votes this time than Penashue did in 2011; Penashue lost about 250 votes compared to 2011; The NDP vote increased by about 150, but dropped about 1%.

The Liberals' tally last night was roughly in line with historical averages for the riding, adjusted for incumbency. Penashue actually underperformed compared with Tory returns in 2006 (the last election where the Tories were competitive).
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #37 on: May 14, 2013, 01:15:36 PM »

It's not a Tory talking point if you make the decision before the election. Let's face it, 48.2% is an historically bad number of the Liberals in Labrador. It's their sixth worst showing of all time.  Perhaps I was even being generous, considering the average result for the Liberals in Labrador is 60.2%!

Of course, the Tories lost by just losing, and the NDP lost by not gaining from last time. The only winner? The Libertarians who got on the map for the first time ever.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #38 on: May 14, 2013, 01:39:08 PM »

It's certainly not impressive - particularly given the excellent candidate - but you can't label such an emphatic gain a poor result as such.

A better spinning point might be NDP support holding up despite circumstances being ideal for tactical squeeze horror.
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