Ecuadorian general election, 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

Candidates are:

Rafael Correa (Chavez-y)
Guillermo Lasso (supported by a coalition of the traditional conservative, social democratic, and liberal parties)
Alberto Acosta (supported by Marxist and indigenous oriented parties that broke away from Correa's coalition)
Lucio Gutierrez (former president. Started out Chavez-y but was overthrown for being too moderate, came in second in last election)
Álvaro Noboa (Evil capitalist candidate, came in third in last election, second in the one before that)
Nelson Zavala (candidate of the Roldosista Party, too hard to explain)
Norman Wray (candidate of something called Ruptura 25)

Correa will win.

[Hash]

Guillermo Lasso is more or less the businessman neoliberal/capitalist candidate now, though he seems less evil than Noboa.

Lucio Gutierrez got elected on a True Leftist platform, but governed as a right-winger and in the process pissed off the left and got shafted. He retains a good base of support with natives, because he's a native himself.

[Famous Mortimer]

Lucio Gutierrez got elected on a True Leftist platform, but governed as a right-winger and in the process pissed off the left and got shafted. He retains a good base of support with natives, because he's a native himself.

Looking back at the results of the last election, I see he was backed by the Christian Social Party. Wow. I didn't realize he had gone that far to the right. Is he even pretending to still be a leftist?

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, does anyone know what the deal with Alberto Acosta is? Did the MPD and the Pachakutik people break away because Correa was too moderate or because he was too autocratic?

[RodPresident]

Rodolsista Party is controlled by former impeached President Abdalá Bucaram. After Mahuad failure, it will be hard to right elect a president again in Ecuador.

[Vosem]

Correa is arguably even worse than Chavez.

[Zanas]

Correa is arguably even worse than Chavez.

That is so argumented it blew my mind.

[Velasco]

Correa is arguably even worse than Chavez.

How can you say this about my friend Rafael? He's a good guy! He attended a very Catholic university and also he's a Chicago boy! Look:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafael_Correa

Now seriously, what's the meaning of "arguably even worse" in this context? And from a Marxist-Lacanian perspective, what's your analysis?

[GMantis]

Correa is arguably even worse than Chavez.

Yes, he's in better health

[Insula Dei]

Yeah, Rafa is one of my homeboys. I keep telling him he should just stfu about 'market solutions' and all that, though. Just hang back, have another go at that hookah and have a bit of a swing at that free press, is what I say. His wife makes a killer homado, too. (And she isn't even from Ecuador!)

[Sir John Johns]

Last month's Perfiles de Opinión poll:
Correa 63%, blank 12%, Lasso 8%, null 5%, Gutiérrez 4%, Acosta 2%, Noboa 2%

Last week's Opinión Públia Ecuador poll:
Correa 57%, blank 12%, Lasso 12%, null 6%, Gutiérrez 5%, Acosta 4%, Noboa 2%, all others under 1%

Yesterday's Market poll:
Correa 59.4 %, Lasso 11.6%, blank 7.1%, null 7.1%, Gutiérrez 5.3%, Acosta 3.1%, Noboa 3%, Rodas 1.4%, Zavala 1%, Wray 0.9%

Guayas (coastal province, 24% of the Ecuadorian voters): Correa 65.07%, Lasso 12.35%
Pichincha (Quito's province, in the highland,  18% of the total voters): Correa 57.17%, Lasso 12.8%
Manabí (coastal province, 9.5% of the total voters): Correa 71.7%, Lasso 7.5%

By comparison, 2009 presidential election results:
Correa 45.23%, Gutiérrez 24.57%, Noboa 9.92%, blank 6.74%, null 6.26%, Martha Roldós (anti-Correa left) 3.77%, four fringe candidates (including an evangelical female pastor) received less than 2%.

Guayas: Correa 39.27%, Gutiérrez 25.65%, Noboa 14.74%, blank 5.99%, null 5.99%, Roldós 4.47%
Pichincha: Correa 53.11%, Gutiérrez 18.56, Noboa 9.21%, null 6.28, Roldós 5.53%, blank 2.50%
Manabí: Correa 43.79%, Gutiérrez 24.21%, blank 10.57, Noboa 10.37%, null 6.8% Roldós 2.19%

Costa (coastal provinces) (% valid votes): Correa 50.92%, Gutiérrez 26.87%, Noboa 14.52%, Roldós 4.07%
Sierra (highland provinces): Correa 54.69%, Gutiérrez 27.55%, Noboa 8.32%, Roldós 4.68%
Oriental (Amazonian provinces): Gutiérrez 55.01%, Correa 35.25%, Noboa 4.34%, Roldós 3.40%

Gender gap (men and women are required to vote in separate polling stations) (% valid votes)
Men: Correa 52.5%, Gutiérrez 28.81%, Noboa 11.61%, Roldós 3.04%
Women: Correa 51.5%, Gutiérrez 27.69%, Noboa 11.2%, Roldós 5.58%.
(Women voters generally favored women candidates no matter their political orientation).


Looks like Correa will make big gains in Costa region. However Ecuadorian polls are notoriously bad and should not be taken too seriously. They tended to systematically underestimate Gutiérrez vote. I would not be totally surprised if Gutiérrez finally overtook Lasso the election day.

[Sir John Johns]

Pardon my broken English, my confuse and clumsy style and my lack of concision. I'm not good at writing, especially in English, and especially on the Net.

Since late June, I closely follow Ecuador politics by reading articles from websites of El Universo, El Comercio, and Hoy, and various stuff found on the Internet. As an outsider observer (who never went to Ecuador and who is not totally fluent in Spanish), I certainly miss or misunderstand some things and I'm far from being an expert of the messy and complicated Ecuadorian political life (just two facts: each eight presidential elections between 1979 and 2006 were won by a different party; Correa is the first elected president since 1996 to have completing his term). Anyways, here what I understand of the Acosta/Correa rivalry (and also some details on Acosta and his supporting coalition).

Acosta biography

Acosta is an economist, graduated from Cologne University and specialized in energy economics, and a respected left-wing intellectual. In 1996, he participated in the foundation of the indigenous movement Pachakutik. He played an important role in the elaboration of Correa's electoral platform in 2006 and is considered as one of the main ideologues of the “Citizen's Revolution” (Revolución Ciudadana), Correa regime's official doctrine.

Acosta was energy minister in Correa's government in 2006-2007 and had been the inspiration behind the Yasuní-ITT Initiative (to summarize: international community will pay Ecuador for not drilling oil within the Yasuní National Park, one of the most biologically diverse areas in the world). He then resigned to run as PAIS movement (Correa's Party) top candidate in the election for the 2007 Constituent Assembly election and was elected president of the Constituent Assembly. He abruptly resigned this post in June 2008 to protest Correa's interference in the drafting of the Constitution.

The environmental issue

Acosta is running on an eco-socialist platform and openly opposed Correa's extractive policy in the Amazonian provinces. He notably opposes oil drilling in the Block 31 area, claiming that it will heavily pollute the adjacent Yasuní National Park. Correa had denied such thing and ordered the begin of drilling for the months ahead. Acosta also raised concerns over a big copper-mining project in El Mirador (in the Amazonian province of Zamora Chinchipe), which will be managed by the Chinese-owned Ecuavisa. These two big projects were initiated, according to Acosta, without consulting indigenous communities as required by the Constitution. Also, Acosta wants to keep the constitutional ban on GMOs that Correa promised to remove.

The criminalization of the social movements

Acosta is also denouncing what he calls the “criminalization” of the social movements by Correa's government. For example, in March 2012, indigenous and leftist organizations protested in Quito over a controversial water law which, according to its detractors, would allowed exploitation of water resources by extractive industries. Ten young leftist militants were arrested by the police in the Luluncoto sector on possession of cell phones, political books and various leftist stuff (Che Guevara shirts, Sandinist flags, Inti-Illimani's and anarchist singer Jaime Guevara's discs). They were accused to be part of a maoist illegal group and charged with terrorism and sabotage. Allegations of police brutality surfaced and critics were raised about the indictment process and the upcoming trial. Most notably, Spanish judge Baltazar Garzón - hired to review Ecuadorian new judicial system – had underlined the fact that terms like “sabotage” and “terrorism” were historically used by Latin-American dictatorships in the 1970s to detain political opponents.

The Partidocracia

Another point of contention between Acosta and Correa is what Acosta considers the take-over of Correa's party (Allianza PAIS) by opportunists and politicians linked to the old corrupt political class (the Partidocracia). Many of Correa's old allies (those who have supported his first candidacy in 2006 and were part of his first administration) side now with the left opposition and support Acosta's candidacy. These notably include center-left politician Gustavo Larrea (Correa's campaign manager in 2006 and his right-hand man in the first years of his presidency), defrocked priest and former PAIS representative Fernando Vega, and Gustavo Darquea, a former PAIS coordinator in Guayas province. Also, indigenous activist and former Correa minister Mónica Chuji have been sentenced to one year in jail for having defamed Correa's powerful public administration secretary Vinicio Alvarado. Chuji had accused Alvarado to be “one of the Revolution's nouveaux riches”.

Alvarado has been campaign manager for histrionic populist Abdalá Bucaram's 1988 presidential bid and for arch-conservative Jaime Nebot's 1996 presidential bid. His brother, Fernando, is currently communications secretary in Correa administration, and his father, the now-deceased Humberto Alvarado, was elected PAIS representative in 2009 despite his past active militancy in the rightist Social Christian Party. Another figure despised by the anti-Correa left is Alexis Mera, legal secretary to President, who has been a close advisor of León Febres Cordero, the flamboyant rightist president between 1984 and 1988.

Alvarado's and Mera's cases are far from isolated. When PAIS was founded, it was a movement with weak roots in civil society and mostly constituted by idealist academics and militants with no government experience. To keep power and win mayoralties, PAIS recruited numerous veteran politicians and local caciques, coming not only from traditional left parties but also from populist or conservative parties (including Gutiérrez's and Álvaro Noboa's parties). This clearly contradicts Correa's continual attacks on the Partidocracia and his pledge to rid Ecuador of its old corrupt political class.


Correa's growing authoritarism

Finally, Acosta denounces Correa's authoritarian tendencies. While he supports the 2008 Constitution and the strengthening of executive power it has bring, he criticized the 2011 referendum on justice reform restricting judicial independence, and called it a violation of principles of the Citizen's Revolution. As such, Acosta sees himself as the defender of the 2008 Constitution, which was perverted by Correa.

Acosta also denounces Correa's numerous lawsuits against media. I probably need to write something about that but information is easibly available in English. Violations against press freedom are denounced by all opposition candidates and the theme isn't specific to Acosta.

[Sir John Johns]

Acosta is backed by the Plurinational Coordination of the Lefts, an umbrella organization grouping several leftist parties. The two most important are the indigenist Pachakutik (in full, Pachakutik Plurinational Unity Movement – New Country, MUPP-NP) and the marxist-leninist Democratic Popular Movement (MPD). Both have their reasons to be angry with Correa.

Pachakutik

Pachakutik is the political arm of the once powerful Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE). The party enthusiastically supported Gutiérrez in 2002 and feel betrayed when the latter moved to the right and attempted to build his own political base in Pachakutik-controled indigenous areas. It then launched a personal vendetta against Gutiérrez and united with Social Christian Party and left movements to remove him in 2005. The ethnicist faction of Pachakutik then took control of the party. In 2006 presidential election, Pachakutik refused to support a non indigenous candidate and ran its own candidate, Luis Macas, for president. The latter made a poor showing, winning only 2.19%.

The CONAIE and Pachakutik reluctantly supported Correa in the 2006 presidential runoff and were discontent with the 2007 Constitution because it didn't grant enough rights to the indigenous to its taste and only give Kichwa the status of “language of intercultural relations” rather than that of equal to Spanish official language. Also, Pachakutik was disappointed that Ecuador was not officially called a plurinational state like Morales' Bolivia. Controversial mining and water laws and Correa's disdain for dialogue with social movements convinced the CONAIE to openly confront the president, with little success. In 2009 presidential election, Pachakutik and the CONAIE ran no candidate and refused to support any candidate (not even Martha Roldás, who was running as a left-wing opponent to Correa). In the concurrently held legislative election, it made its worst-ever showing. This year, Pachakutik is actively supporting the white Alberto Acosta and is running joint lists with the MPD on national level and in several provinces.

Pachakutik is plagued by internal divisions and personal squabbles. For instance, it had formed a joint list with PAIS in Chimborazo province and one of its historical leader in Carchi was Lasso's first-choice running mate. There are also probably ethnic rivalries but I'm not qualified to write about.

The Democratic Popular Movement

The Democratic Popular Movement (MPD) was founded in 1978 as the electoral organization of the maoist Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Ecuador. It is heavy linked with the trade unions, especially the teachers' union (UNE) and in the past the party had covertly traded its support in return of retaining unions' privileges. It also had sometimes employed violence but never follow the path of armed struggle as the Shining Path did in Peru. In 2002, the MPD supported Gutiérrez's candidacy but broke with him when he endorsed a privatization agenda. However, in a bizarre move, it reentered coalition with Gutiérrez in November 2004 until the fall of the latter in April 2005 and was subsequently punished by voters in the 2006 elections.

The MPD supported Correa's government until the passage of a law reforming the notoriously ineffective education system. The law undermined the patronage of the UNE over the recruitment of teachers and, according to Correa's opponents, set up a new patronage on behalf of Correa.

The MPD tends to have his best results in the coastal province of Esmeraldas, also one of the poorest Ecuadorian provinces, and home to important oil refinery. Afro-Ecuadorians account here for around 45% of total population. MPD had historically been the only party to actively promote Afro-Ecuadorians to effective leadership positions. In 1984, it nominated Jaime Hurtado as the first Afro-Ecuadorian to run in a presidential election and Hurtado became then the party's leader until his assassination in 1999. Lenín Hurtado, Jaime's son, is a a MPD bigwig and is currently running for Guayas deputy.

While the MPD could be seen as a sectarian and corrupt party, it however has achieved some local success. In 2000, trade-unionist Ernesto Estupiñán was elected mayor of the dilapidated and dirty city of Esmeraldas (the first Afro-Ecuadorian mayor of a major city) and successively transformed it into a modern city with functional infrastructure. For some reason, he faced a difficult reelection in 2009 and barely defeated his Roldosist opponent. That same year, the MPD candidate to prefect (equivalent to U.S. governor) of Esmeraldas province defeated his PAIS opponent, a former provincial leader of PRIAN, by ten points.

Other parties of the Plurinational Coordination of the Lefts

Other movements supporting Acosta's candidacy include Popular Power, a provincial center-left movement led by Azuay prefect Paúl Carrasco elected with PAIS and now a committed opponent to Correa; the so-called Revolutionary Socialist wing of the joke Socialist Party (the rest of the party still supporting Correa); Martha Roldós' moribund Ethical and Democratic Network (RED); Acosta's own tiny Montecristí Vive; Convocatoria, the political vehicle of Loja deputy Nívea Vélez; and Gustavo Larrea's Participación.

Acosta's program and running mate

Acosta's electoral platform includes: the end of the criminalization of social movements; a drop of the VAT rate and an income tax raise; the prohibition of mining activities in protected areas and more generally a distancing from the extractive economic model; the development of small local business and of tourism; the inclusion of sexual and reproductive rights into the Constitution.

Acosta's running mate is Marcia Caicedo, a lawyer and former counselor of the National Electoral Council linked to the MPD. An Afro-Ecuadorian from Esmeraldas province, she came from a poor background and was a conchera (shellfish gatherer) when young.

[Zanas]

Well that was indeed not concise, but neither confuse not clumsy ! Very useful indeed. Could you brush a quick painting of the other candidates, and tell us what the latest polls look like ? You seem to be following this very closely.

And a big LOL at the Wikipedia page of Acosta's coalition, la Unidad Plurinacional de las Izquierdas, labelled as "izquierda infantil" (infantile left) in the political spectrum. Probably written by Correa's supporters, no ?

[Sir John Johns]

Thanks. As I have wrote above, I'm not good in writing in English (verb conjugation isn't really my cup of tea) and spent long time to wrote posts. I prefer writing long posts because Ecuadorian politics is very complicated and parties can't be reduced to their self-proclaimed ideology.

And a big LOL at the Wikipedia page of Acosta's coalition, la Unidad Plurinacional de las Izquierdas, labelled as "izquierda infantil" (infantile left) in the political spectrum. Probably written by Correa's supporters, no ?

“Izquierda infantil” was indeed a term used by Correa himself to label his leftist opponents.

you brush a quick painting of the other candidates, and tell us what the latest polls look like ?

I will try to write more developed profiles but:

Guillermo Lasso (CREO). Conservative candidate linked to Guayaquil big-business. He is desperatly trying to attract centrist vote. He never ran an election and has made several mistakes. His support is concentrated in the coastal provinces and in the highland big cities.

Álvaro Noboa (PRIAN). Uncharismatic joke populist with vague electoral platform. He uses his vast fortune to buy votes and was yesterday fined by Electoral Court for this reason. His support is heavily concentrated in coastal provinces.

Lucio Gutiérrez (PSP). Now a right-wing populist. He is running on a law-and-order platform and looks like Correa's most vocal opponent. His support is concentrated in the Amazonian provinces (Oriente) and the Sierra indigenous countryside. He had made inroads in Coastal provinces in the last presidential election but probably will suffered heavy loses in that area due to Lasso's competition (there was no conservative candidate in 2009).

Nelson Závala (PRE). Crazy evangelical pastor backed by the hardcore populist Roldosist Party. He is running on a quasi theocratic platform. Roldosist Party is neither a Correa supporter nor a Correa opponent. It will sell out to the one who could permit their insane leader Abdalá Bucaram to return from his fourth Panamian exile. PRE support is concentrated in the poor sectors of the Costa (especially in Esmeraldas province) and non existant in Sierra and Oriente.

Now, some details on the two irrelevant candidates (unfortunately they are, with Acosta, the only candidates with some ideological consistency).

Ruptura 25 is a social-democratic movement, which places a strong emphasis on women's and LGTB Rights (one of their candidates in the legislative election is a transsexual). It was founded in 2004, 25 years after the return of the democracy, and at first backed Correa's government. It broke with Correa in 2011 over the referendum on justice reform (which limited justice independence). Ruptura managed to recruit Paco Moncayo, a retired general and popular former mayor of Quito who played a key role in the falls of Presidents Bucaram in 1996 and Gutiérrez in 2004.

Ruptura's candidate is the 37-year old Norman Wray, a former PAIS member of the Constituent Assembly and, until recently, municipal councilor in Quito. In this last post, he developed programs to eradicate verbal and physical harassment in the Quito bus and to promote the use of bikes in the city. The second youngest candidate, he run an artsy campaign targeting mostly young middle-class of the Sierra cities. He suffered from low name-recognition and will probably made a poor showing outside of Quito and Cuenca. His running mate is Ángela Mendoza, an independent social activist from Manabí province with no political past.

Ruptura's platform is very similar to Acosta's one. It wants to put an end to the extractive economic model and develop renewable energies. However, it's economically a bit to the right of Acosta's platform. As Acosta, Wray supports same-sex marriage.

There is an eighth candidate, that has been omitted in the first post:

Mauricio Rodas, a 37-year old Quito lawyer and the youngest candidate. He had been a vice-president of the Social Christian youth movement and lived 10 years abroad in U.S., Chile, and Mexico where he worked for the think tank Fundación Ethos. Thus, he didn't take part in the 2000s insane political strife and appears as a fresh face.

Rodas is running for the newly-founded United Society for More Action (SUMA) a self-described progressive centrist party which advocated “responsible government” and the end of the confrontational style adopted by many politicians (especially Correa). At first, SUMA failed to gather the required number of signatures for register. However, after a legal action, it qualified to be on the ballot. The fact that there are many lawyers and even a renowned jurist on SUMA's lists probably help as they presumably have a better knowledge of the electoral code than the inept National Electoral Council.

Rodas is backed by the Evangelical Indigenous Federation (FEINE) and its political arm, the Amauta Yuyay movement, which is pretty influential in Chimborazo (numerically the largest indigenous population of any Ecuadorian province; highest percentage of indigenous population of Sierra provinces) where it win a deputy in 2009. FEINE is at odd with both Correa and the CONAIE. So, it reluctantly supported Gutiérrez in last presidential election. For this election, it first attempted to negotiated a deal with Ruptura (which is really surprising, considering the Ruptura's very social liberal platform). I highly doubt FEINE support will be translated in a strong Rodas performance in Chimborazo.

Rodas is also supported by César Montúfar's National Democratic Concert Movement (MCND). Montúfar is a center-left politician and a vocal opponent to Correa. Between 2002-2005 he was director of the citizen's organization Participación Ciudadana (PC), which more or less does the incompetent electoral authority's job (i.e. encouraging people to vote, informing citizens about how to vote, observing actual voting and proceeding to quick count). Montúfar was elected deputy for Pichincha province in 2009, the only MCND elected. Last year, Montúfar attempted to re-register his movement but failed to gather the required number of signatures (a clear evidence that his party has very little popular support) and claimed it was part of a Correa's ploy. Btw, the MCND director, Juan Carlos Solines, left the party to run as Lasso's running mate, to the great dismay of Montúfar.

Rodas' own running mate is Ines Manzano, an environmental lawyer and expert in sustainable development with no political past.

Last Sunday, Rodas was held up and robbed in an “express kidnapping” while in the Quito Airport. Gangsters stole him his mobile cells, his wedding ring, and his credit cards. Then they threw an acidic substance” in his eyes and left him alone in the streets. Rodas was then briefly hospitalized.

[Sir John Johns]

Also, in the news:

PAIS briefly suspended his campaign after a man armed with a knife attacked Correa supporters in an electoral meeting in Quinindé canton (Esmeraldas province). Two persons died and four have been wounded. All other presidential candidates have condemned the attack. The assaulter was apparently under the influence of alcohol or drugs. He was transferred to Quito. Quinindé looks like a dangerous place associated with several murders and drug trafficking.

Marcia Caicedo (Acosta's running-mate) has filed a complaint in the Electoral Court. She is accusing Correa to use government funding to run campaign and to use children's images in his electoral sports in violation of the Electoral Code. For his part, Lasso has accused United Socialist Party of Venezuela of financing Correa's campaign.

According a poll from Mexican poll company Arcop, Lasso will force Correa into a run-off (Correa: 39%; Lasso, 26%). Correa would loses vote owing to growing climate of insecurity. Look like a junk poll.

A Market poll has PAIS with at least 98 deputies out of 137 (Galápagos and abroad voters were not polled).

[Hash]

Excellent and fascinating posts, thank you.

Bienvenue sur le forum.

[Velasco]

Your description of Correa's Alianza PAIS resembles me a bit the present-day Ortega's FSLN (sandinistas), I don't know why. Acosta would be like Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS). Jarquín got 6.4% in 2006 and in 2011 the MRS went in coalition with the center-right PLI (all-together-against-Ortega). Daniel Ortega -in my opinion, this ally of Chávez is arguably even worse than Correa because is corrupt- got 38% in 2006 and 62.7% in 2011.

I'm going a bit off-topic. Your posts are very interesting, Sir John. Hope that you could tell us more about Lasso, the apparent runner-up.

[Famous Mortimer]

Your description of Correa's Alianza PAIS resembles me a bit the present-day Ortega's FSLN (sandinistas), I don't know why. Acosta would be like Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS). Jarquín got 6.4% in 2006 and in 2011 the MRS went in coalition with the center-right PLI (all-together-against-Ortega). Daniel Ortega -in my opinion, this ally of Chávez is arguably even worse than Correa because is corrupt- got 38% in 2006 and 62.7% in 2011.

I'm going a bit off-topic. Your posts are very interesting, Sir John. Hope that you could tell us more about Lasso, the apparent runner-up.

Defo see the Sandinista comparisons. Remember one of Ortega's running mates was a former Contra leader.

[Sir John Johns]

Thank you for your welcome !

I forgot to mention that Ethical and Democratic Network, Montecristí Vive and Participación are unregistered parties. Note also that the Market poll on legislative election is apparently only reported by El Telégrafo, the state-owned newspaper, and is probably biased.

Lasso biography

Despite running on a vaguely centrist platform, Lasso is indeed the candidate of the traditional right. He came from Guayaquil, which is both the economic lung and the most populous city of the country. He is the former head of Banco de Guayaquil and was governor (an appointed position in the ministry of interior; the Ecuadorian counterpart of U.S. governor is the prefect, which is elected) of Guayas (the Guayaquil province) in 1998-1999. He then was appointed “super-minister” of Economy in the christian-democrat administration of President Jamil Mahuad, few months after the collapse of the whole banking system. He resigned after only 37 days in office after Mahuad decided an Ecuador default of the debt. Lasso was then ambassador-at-large in Gutiérrez administration. In that post he dealt with the international financial organizations and Washington government.

A self-described centrist, Lasso has been tackled by Correa's partisans for being a member of the Opus Dei and for being advised by Antonio Sola, a former political advisor to both Mariano Rajoy and Felipe Calderón. WikiLeaks also revealed that he was an U.S. embassy informant. Throughout the campaign, Correa's propaganda portrayed Lasso as a lackey of Washington and as a politician who wanted to restored to power the oligarchy and the partidocracia. It also attempted to link him to the Ferriado, the President Mahuad's very unpopular decision to close banks and to froze bank deposits in 1999.

Incidentally or not, on last December, Ecuadorian justice asked Interpol to issue an international arrest warrant for Mahuad (who is now living in exile in the United States). Interpol refused to do so, arguing the case was politically motivate. Correa called Interpol refusal an “insult”.

I can't post links but if you want to see how Correa's electoral propaganda portrays Lasso (without great subtlety), type “La Feriatta” in Youtube. The glass-wearing man and the guy with a mustache are supposed to respectively represent Lasso and Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot. The man in the photo is Gutiérrez. While la Feriatta isn't officially a Correa's election ad, it was aired on public TV channels. The National Electoral Council ordered to stop broadcasting the ad after a complaint from Lasso.

Lasso's running mate
At first, Lasso surprisingly chose Auki Tituaña as his running mate. A Kichwa (Quechua), Tituaña was a historical leader of Pachakutik and was mayor of the canton of Cotacachi (Imbabura province, Northern Sierra), one of the first indigenous mayors in Ecuador. Strategically, it was probably a good choice as it could have helped Lasso to attract  indigenous votes. On the other hand, Lasso lost any ideological consistency, as Tituaña is pretty leftist and had previously labeled Correa as a “neo-liberal”. Anyway, Tituaña renounced to run as his candidacy would be disqualified because he had omitted to resign his Pachakutik membership before the registration deadline (a candidate registered as a member of a registered party can't run for another registered party except if the two parties formed a joint list). The only way for Tituaña to get his candidacy accepted was that Pachakutik expelled him from its ranks. Pachakutik refused to do so; but the CONAIE immediately expelled Tituaña after he joined Lasso's camp. Apparently, Tituaña had since played no role in Lasso's campaign.

Lasso's second choice for running mate is Juan Carlos Solines. Solines is a member of the centrist party Concertation but, as Concertation failed to qualify as a recognized party, there is no problem for the electoral authorities. Solines looks like a poor choice: he was assistant to the conservative president Durán Ballén in the 1990s, lived in Quito, and has a poor name recognition.

Lasso's platform
Lasso began his campaign in September by promising to raise the bono de desarrollo humano (BDH; some kind of monthly minimum revenue for poorest Ecuadorians) from 35$ to 50$. He also said the rise of the BDH will be financed by cutting the government's propaganda budget. This backlashed when Correa announced his own intention to raise the BDH to 50$ and to finance this measure by heavier taxes on financial services. Then all other candidates promised too to increase the BDH. Noboa said he will raise the BDH to 60$, Gutiérrez proposed to increase it to 65$, Acosta said he will raise it to 70$ (but will transformed it into a productive bond to favor local production). Unsurprisingly, the Roldosist Party proposed the highest rise (from 35$ to 80$). In November, the National Assembly, following Correa's request, vote the raise of the BDH to 50$. It became effective on January 1st, only seven weeks before the election.

Lasso said that if elected president, he will keep Ecuador in the Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas (ALBA) but will have a critical attitude toward this organization. He also promised that Assange will keep his asylum status.
Other promises includes:
- the abolition of 9 taxes, including the controversial green tax[/li][/list]
- the unconditional abandoning of oil drilling in Yasuní
- the hiring of 20,000 extra police officers
- less bureaucracy to encourage business creation
- creation of development hubs (apparently some kind of free zones)
- restoring visas on foreigners
- a constitutional ban on immediate presidential reelection.

Lasso has numerous flaws but is probably the best candidate to force Correa into a run-off. In the case of the second round, he would have difficulties to rally Acosta voters (quite understandable) but perhaps also Gutiérrez's voters as most of Gutiérrez electorate is made up of indigenous and mestizos who will associated Lasso to the oligarchy.

Lasso is backed by his own party, the newly-founded Creating Opportunities (CREO), the old Social Christian Party (PSC), the provincial Madera de Guerrero Civic Movement (MG), and the now totally irrelevant Liberal Radical Party (seriously, I was surprised to learn it has not died). I will write later on these parties.

Could a Spanish-speaker poster explained me what “Madera de Guerrero” actually means, I don't get it. The translation I founded (wooden warrior) looks like strange. The term apparently came from a Pepe Jaramillo's song about Guayaquil's inhabitants.

[Sir John Johns]

New Ciees poll (found on El Telégrafo website):

29.1% still undecided.
34.4% would not vote if voting wasn't mandatory.

Presidential election:
Correa 56.3%
Lasso 20.6%
blank 10.3%
Gutiérrez 5.8%
Acosta 5.2%
Noboa 4.3%
null 4%
Zavala 3%
Wray 2.7%
Rodas 2.1%

Legislative elections
(the 15 deputies elected on national level - I should write something on the electoral system)

PAIS 57.2%
CREO 18.7%
Unidad Izquierdas (MPD-Pachakutik) 4.6%
PSP 4.3%
PRIAN 3.5%
PRE 3%
Ruptura 2.5%
SUMA 2.5%
Avanza (Correa's useless ally) 2%
PSC 1.2%
PS-FA (Correa's useless ally) 0.7%

[Velasco]

Could a Spanish-speaker poster explained me what “Madera de Guerrero” actually means, I don't get it. The translation I founded (wooden warrior) looks like strange. The term apparently came from a Pepe Jaramillo's song about Guayaquil's inhabitants.

I didn't hear Jaramillo's song (maybe it's in YouTube ) but someone with "Madera de Guerrero" is a person who has the same makings of warriors. For example, "no tengo madera de héroe" roughly means something like "I wasn't born to be a Hero"

[Zanas]

On dirait en français : avoir l'étoffe d'un guerrier, ou une belle tête de vainqueur...

[Sir John Johns]

Thanks/Merci !

In the news:
Yesterday, Guillermo Lasso criticized the silence of Juan Manuel Santos and Sebastián Piñera on the postponement of Chávez's swearing-in. He said that they are “complicit in what is happening in Venezuela.”

Correa campaigned in the province of Carchi (northern Sierra) and was criticized for using an army helicopter for his travel. He was endorsed by the six mayors of the province. Three of them are members of PAIS, one of the Roldosist Party, and the two others of conservative provincial parties.

Today, Electoral Court rejected Marcia Caicedo's complaint over Correa's use of government funding to run campaign. The complaint notably concerns the use of an army helicopter in a Correa's TV-add. Caicedo said she will appeal the decision.

Publication of opinion polls are now banned until the polling day, as required by the Electoral Law.

I have problems writing in English. I'm so slow

Anyways, here what I wrote about CREO (I have spent too much time on this boring party).

CREO (Creating Opportunities) was founded in 2011 by César Monge and Mae Montaño to prepare the ground for Lasso's candidacy; Lasso officially joined the party in August 2012 but is clearly the party's leader since the beginning. César Monge is a businessman with no political past; he was president of the Chamber of Aquaculture.

Mae Montaño is a most interesting figure. She is an Afro-Ecuadorian from Esmeraldas and was raised in a slum by a single-mother. She was involved in feminism and Afro-Ecuatorian activism and ran for Esmeraldas mayoralty as an independent candidate in 1996. She then managed the Esmeraldas Port Authority between 1997 and 2003 and had to deal with the inept and corrupt Roldosist mayor and then with the MPD mayor. In 2005, she was tipped as a possible vice president. In 2007, she participated in the foundation of the party A New Option (UNO), which described itself as the new option of the Ecuadorian right, and was elected a deputy to the Constituent Assembly. She then joined César Montúfar's centrist MCND but failed to be reelected. Montaño is the top candidate on the CREO national list. CREO membership includes many other businessmen, notably Patricio Donoso, until recently chairman of the National Business Association (ANDE), who ran for deputy on the second position on the national list.

Most top candidates for CREO have political experience. Therefore, various Social Christian provincial caciques joined the ranks of CREO and are running for deputies either on a CREO list, either on a joint list between their personal vehicle and CREO. There are Jorge Zambrano, former mayor of Manta, Manabí (1996-2009); Luis Fernando Torres, former mayor of Ambato, Tungurahua (1992-2000) and leader of the Tiempo de Cambio party; Leonardo Viteri, former mayor of Sucre, Manabí (2000-2004), who seeks reelection under his Humanist Civic Action Movement for Ethics, Labor, and Equity (MACHETE; its symbol is a shield and two machetes); and Raúl Auquilla Ortega, former prefect of Loja (1996-2004).

Two dissident deputies from Noboa's PRIAN joined CREO. There were Fernando Flores, deputy for Ecuadorians living in Canada and the United States, who is running for reelection, and deputy from Esmeraldas Lenín Chica. The latter attempted to run for reelection but his candidacy was rejected after he failed to resign his PRIAN membership before the registration deadline.

CREO nominated his top candidates in Amazonian provinces with apparently little regard. In Napo, its candidate José Luis Columbo is a former Pachakutik deputy (2002-2006) who was expelled from that party after he voted with the PSP-PSC alliance. He then unsuccessfully tried to be reelected first with the support of the Roldosist party and then as a PRIAN candidate. In Orellana, CREO candidate, Eduardo Montaño was a Democratic Left-turned-PRIAN-turned Democratic Left member.
I could continue to write about Democratic Left (formerly a very important party, now technically dead), about PSC (a key party to understand the whole mess in the 1990s and early 2000s and still a relatively important party) and about Madero de Guerrero. I also began to write something about the vote system. But perhaps do you have some specific requests or something a bit more concise?

[Hash]

I'd love something along the lines of a political history of Ecuador since the 80s/90s (whatever point in time you think is most important to begin to understand the present).