pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,858
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« on: February 05, 2013, 08:08:17 AM » |
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1. It is early. Anyone who believes that mass sentiments of early 2013 will hold in November 2016 fools himself.
2. Any poll of Texas is suspect. The state is just too diverse and too regionally-splintered for anyone to get a good sample. I don't care how good the pollster is -- Texas polls were simply wild last year.
3. It could be that Texans now have fatigue for the Republican Party. Although such giant cities as Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso have or have had Democratic mayors, statewide politics has all been GOP. Such has allowed cronyism and right-wing social engineering to flourish. Texas used to be a moderate state with political figures like Lloyd Bentsen and Ann Richards. That hasn't been so for twenty years. Texas state government is Hard Right.
4. I will believe that Texas would vote for Hillary only in 2016 if the polls of the time overwhelmingly so indicate. Neither Bill Clinton nor Barack Obama could win the state. Bill lost it by 5% in 1996, and Obama lost it big twice.
5. Democrats can win without Texas. The last Democratic nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the state has drifted R since then. A Democrat wins Texas only in a landslide -- or in desperation (as in Republicans successfully getting several states to split electoral votes by Congressional district to the severe detriment of the Democratic nominee along gerrymandered lines).
6. Rick Perry is awful. He is almost as vulnerable to verbal blunders and logical miscues as Sarah Palin. Can the Republicans nominate someone that awful? If they do, then about any mainstream Democrat who is at all up to the job and does not have a working scandal... wins.
The Republicans won 24 states with someone who basically promised tax cuts on behalf of people who would get the freedom to impose more brutal management in the workplace and hasten the destruction of the environment for quick profits.
Do I contradict myself here? Sure. I have never claimed any talent for prophecy.
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