What's caused the GOP location realignments in Pennsylvania and Illinois?

[soniquemd21921]

Anyone familiar with county maps knows that for most of the 20th century the core area of GOP strength in Pennsylvania were the northern counties along the New York border and the southeastern counties stretching from Bucks to York. But while northern Pennsylvania has remained strongly Republican, the southeastern/suburban Philadelphia counties have become competitive - with the Philly suburbs voting Democratic in presidential elections (which never happened before 1992 except in 1964), Chester and Dauphin becoming split, and formerly rock-ribbed Lancaster, Lebanon and York seeing their GOP margins reduced to below 60%.

At the same time, southwestern Pennsylvania - Fayette, Greene, Washington and Westmoreland (Adlai Stevenson carried all four counties in 1956 - that's how Democratic that region used to be) - has shifted Republican in the last four presidential elections, with each GOP percentage higher than the last. Westmoreland is now more Republican than Lancaster was, something that would have been unimaginable 15-20 years ago.

What's caused this shift? A similar shift has happened in Illinois, as well: southern Illinois, which used to be a mixture of Republican, Democratic and swing counties, is now solidly Republican - while the formerly rock-ribbed Republican counties of northern Illinois have become highly competitive.

[Siloch]

I don't know the reason but what is strange is how it has not happened all over the north just around certain cities. I mean the collar counties around Philadelphia and New York have swung Democratic, the collar counties around Chicago and Detroit have became swing counties but leaning Democratic while in Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Columbus they have remained strong Republican and around Pittsburgh they are becoming very Republican.

[soniquemd21921]

The NYC suburban counties are somewhat obvious: demographic changes. According to the 2010 Census, the non-white Hispanic population of the NYC suburban counties are:

Suffolk (swing) - 79%
Fairfield (swing) - 72%
Nassau (lean Democratic) - 66% (17% are Jewish)
Bergen (lean Democratic) - 58%
Westchester (Democratic) - 46%
Suffolk (heavily Democratic) - 31%

[Sol]

Pennsylvania's pretty obvious: Western PA is being carried by the same trend that took West Virginia from Dukakis to Romney.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Western PA is stagnating or losing population, and has become more influenced by social conservatism (and more recently, coal), though for now it still leans Democratic at a state/local level. Some, though not all, of the swing is in reaction just to Obama; there may be a slight shift back in 2016.

The Philly suburbs' trend is twofold. One, some of them, especially Delaware and Montgomery, are becoming more urban as Philadelphia begins to creep out of its official city limits. Secondly, there are plenty of affluent whites who still vote GOP at a local and even congressional level, but have left the national party thanks to its rightward swing. There's also an influx of Asian and Latino voters in Central Pennsylvania (and Mennonites are less hardcore GOP than they used to be), so the GOP can no longer count on getting 70% in Lancaster and York.

[morgieb]

Republican Party became more right-wing, therefore they had less appeal to the suburbs and more appeal to coal areas.

[sg0508]

They lost the suburbs surrounding Philly and Chicago, respectively.  It's killed them in those two states and in other states that used to be GOP winners; MI, WA, NJ, DE, etc, etc.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

They lost the suburbs surrounding Philly and Chicago, respectively.  It's killed them in those two states and in other states that used to be GOP winners; MI, WA, NJ, DE, etc, etc.

Washington's never really been a Republican stronghold at a national level. At best it was a swing state. NJ and DE have almost always been swing states.

[soniquemd21921]

Of course, there are several western Pennsylvania counties that have always been Republican strongholds (Butler, Indiana, Jefferson, Venango, Crawford, Clarion, Somerset). But isn't the industry and demographics in those counties a bit different than the Pittsburgh collar counties and Cambria?

And there are several counties in southern Illinois that were just as Republican as the northern ones - such as Edwards County (which has never voted for a Democrat), and a cluster of counties in the far southern part of the state in the Ohio Valley (Pope, Hardin, Johnson, Massac). I don't know much about these counties, but why were they heavily Republican 50-60 years ago?

[Smash255]

Same trend has been seen in many other suburban counties in the region.  The hard-line social conservatism teds to be a major turnoff with the well educated.

[Siloch]

Republican Party became more right-wing, therefore they had less appeal to the suburbs and more appeal to coal areas.

Romney and McCain are more right-wing than Reagan? I don't think so.

[Asian Nazi]

Republican Party became more right-wing, therefore they had less appeal to the suburbs and more appeal to coal areas.

Romney and McCain are more right-wing than Reagan? I don't think so.

Depends on what measure you're talking about.

[old timey villain]

Republican Party became more right-wing, therefore they had less appeal to the suburbs and more appeal to coal areas.

Romney and McCain are more right-wing than Reagan? I don't think so.

If Reagan was in fact more right wing than McCain and Romney then how does one explain Reagan winning places like Vermont, Massachusetts, Westchester county NY and many Bay area counties? Either Reagan was perceived as being more moderate or the GOP brand name was just much stronger.

[soniquemd21921]

GOP voting tradition in many of those areas was still strong in the 80's, for one. Remember that in 1984, the only time Vermont had ever voted Democratic was 1964, and that there were still plenty of loyally-Republican northeastern voters who were old enough to remember when Hoover was president.

[old timey villain]

GOP voting tradition in many of those areas was still strong in the 80's, for one. Remember that in 1984, the only time Vermont had ever voted Democratic was 1964, and that there were still plenty of loyally-Republican northeastern voters who were old enough to remember when Hoover was president.

Yes I understand that about Vermont, but by the 1980s it was widely perceived that the GOP was to the right of center on most issues. So the way I see it, the loyal NE Republicans were due to the Republican's brand. They still has lingering goodwill amongst northeastern moderates and a growing appeal in the south. Basically the brand was at its apex.

[sg0508]

Keep in mind that in the 80s, VT lagged behind the national average each election cycle.  Not that it's necessarily a good stat to bring up since it depended more so on the candidates than on a national level, but the '94 Senate race was one of the few that the democrats thought they could pickup that night; Jeffords only won by 10 points.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

GOP voting tradition in many of those areas was still strong in the 80's, for one. Remember that in 1984, the only time Vermont had ever voted Democratic was 1964, and that there were still plenty of loyally-Republican northeastern voters who were old enough to remember when Hoover was president.

Yes I understand that about Vermont, but by the 1980s it was widely perceived that the GOP was to the right of center on most issues. So the way I see it, the loyal NE Republicans were due to the Republican's brand. They still has lingering goodwill amongst northeastern moderates and a growing appeal in the south. Basically the brand was at its apex.

Bush I carried Vermont in 1988 as well.  And where is this lingering goodwill among Northeast moderates?  It sure doesn't show up in the voting patterns.  As for the realignments, it was because the GOP was perceived as extreme right-wing on social issues.  That and Bill Clinton.