Australia - 7 September 2013

[You kip if you want to...]

Assuming an Abbott majority on Saturday, do we think Kev resigns as ALP leader right away?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah... a loss is a loss - he has to go regardless of the margin.

My seat is only slightly less lefty than you've got it I'm kind if curious...

[Platypus]

I would say yes, Rudd would go, but I have a feeling there might be a chance of hardcore obstructionism trying to get a DD about the carbon tax. Labor would love that, and if they think it's possible, Rudd would probably try to hold on.

BUT I don't think he actually could.

[morgieb]

I DOUBT Abbott will be dumb enough to go to a DD even on the carbon tax. Privately think that Labor/Greens won't be a majority of the Senate anyway.

[morgieb]

Anyone watch Q&A? Rudd apparently killed it.

Unfortunately people that watch Q&A wouldn't be swinging voters.....

[You kip if you want to...]

What're the chances that Abbott will still be in place in 2016 anyway? Really?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah - Rudd did really really well...

Yeah a DD completely and utterly over-estimates the role of the carbon tax in this election, seriously. Any attempt to have a DD on it would become a de-facto election on climate change - Abbott does NOT want that.

[morgieb]

BTW, what station does everyone watch on election night? ABC?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ABC 4 Lyfe

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CdU3ooAZSH8

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is soooo fricking typical - he gives the best speech of the campaign 6 days before the election and gives one of the best ever tv performances 5 days before the election... Peter Beattie was right, this was needed a week ago at least. GAH!!!

[Hifly]

When is Abbott on Q&A?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

When is Abbott on Q&A?

We'll see if he has the balls to come on...

[RogueBeaver]

Nielsen QLD has 53/47, 45/31, level-pegging at 46% PPM.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nielsen QLD has 53/47, 45/31, level-pegging at 46% PPM.

And heavy preference flows from PUP and KAP to the ALP .... this to me, is the sleeper element of this campaign...

[You kip if you want to...]

Nielsen QLD has 53/47, 45/31, level-pegging at 46% PPM.

The ALP would take that as a good result on Saturday, all things considered.

Weren't there polls a fortnight or so ago showing Abbott way ahead in QLD on PPM.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Victoria - Labor seats

Batman - the only question is whether Labor win by a large margin (if the Greens come second) or an utterly mountainous one (if the Liberals do).

Gellibrand - absurdly safe seat in western Melbourne.

Gorton - another absurdly safe seat in western Melbourne, ironically so given who its named for.

Wills - Bob Hawke's old seat and named for a fatally incompetent explorer. It actually contains one of the Greens strongest districts in Melbourne (Brunswick) but unlike Batman they missed out on second last time. Not that it matters.

Lalor - this ever growing (and ever cut back on at redistribution time) patch of western Melbourne suburbia was Julia Gillard's seat. The loss of her personal vote will have some kind of impact on the swing, but the seat will remain monstrously safe.

Scullin - solid block of solidly proletarian northern Melbourne suburbia.

Calwell -  appropriately named not just because Calwell was Labor, but because of his role in boosting the number of immigrants from non-British countries (provided they were white countries, of course).

Maribyrnong - the DLP might have re-grouped (ha, ha, ha) but they have no baleful electoral impact here these days.

Hotham - Crean's retirement and the subsequent messy preselection drama could perhaps do things with the swing, but this is still very safe.

Holt - someone should make sure that this division has a coastline. Poor taste? Anyway, a safe seat these days, but a former Liberal MP for Holt was once a Conservative MP for the old Wrekin constituency in Shropshire (Bill Yates).

Corio - the first non-Melbourne division (it's based around Geelong), though still rather safe.

Ballarat - the transformation of this seat into a safe one has been a strange thing to behold, but safe it is for now.

Jagajaga - safe seat that tends not to swing so much anyway.

Isaacs - this was a marginal not so long ago at all, but looks utterly secure at present.

Bendigo - is an open seat and as such may be unusually prone to a fairly large swing. Still, Labor's continued victories in the area at state level seem to argue against the sort monstrous swing needed to actually threaten Labor's hold here.

McEwen - boundary changes have turned this rapidly growing lump of exurbia into a safe Labor seat, at least on paper. Reality could be less friendly, but this shouldn't be close.

Melbourne Ports - one of the lowest swinging seats in Australia for various structural reasons, thus another solid (worst case 'solid enough') Labor hold is basically certain.

Bruce - there's a bit more room for a swing here, but it includes Dandenong so...

Chisholm - this really ought to be held, but if the likely Coalition victory is at the upper end of the scale of possibilities, might - just - fall. In other words, it's high on the list of possibilities for 'cold sick' losses, if it's that sort of election.

La Trobe - given that this is a natural Liberal seat gained when Labor had a Victorian leader, defeat really does look very, very likely. Of course if Rudd somehow clings to power, then a failure-to-gain here would be a 'cold sick' result for Liberal supporters...

Deakin - looks pretty much gone.

Corangamite - again...

[Hatman 🍁]

This is soooo fricking typical - he gives the best speech of the campaign 6 days before the election and gives one of the best ever tv performances 5 days before the election... Peter Beattie was right, this was needed a week ago at least. GAH!!!

I suppose that Australians are a lot like Americans in that they pick who they're going to vote for months in advance and so any last minute "game changers" don't really sway very many people?

If that were in Canada- especially recently, something like this late in the campaign would be good, just as people are starting to make up their minds. (more and more people are deciding in the last 2 days, which is a reason for our recent polling disasters)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'm just gonna leave this here.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, elections have been decided in the last few days... but it would be shocking for a turn-around

[You kip if you want to...]

Well, elections have been decided in the last few days... but it would be shocking for a turn-around

To be fair, even last time around, nobody really expected it to be as close as it was, from what I remember.

The hung parliament was something that definitely cropped up in the last few days.

[RogueBeaver]

Labor reiterates that if Abbott doesn't have a favourable Senate, he'll need a DD to repeal.

Costello unloads on Rudd, essentially,calling him a hollow, desperate opportunist. Hear, hear.

[RogueBeaver]

Question: how hard will Labor fight the mining tax's repeal?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That is true, expectations were for a Labor majority of about 2 or 3...

Again - a DD on climate change (which you can bet the ALP and the Greens would make it) would be a risky choice and could back-fire on him. I wouldn't put it past Abbott to grieve the inability to repeal, while still bringing in the revenue.

One thing I've noticed over the last few days, the Libs are not acting as if this thing is in the bag... considering it was Howard and Costello that designed our current structural deficit based on reckless campaign promises... he should be very careful about whom he calls 'desperate'

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Question: how hard will Labor fight the mining tax's repeal?

That's a tricky one... I honestly don't know. I'd lean toward accepting it.