Australia - 7 September 2013

[Hifly]

I think the truest success of the government has been the world-leading NDIS, and it will be Gillard's best legacy to Australia.

Hear hear!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Been in New Zealand for the last week with dodgy Internet availability.

I'm not shocked all if this happened and the kind of hysterical reaction from the Libs (I'm talking to you Senator Cash and Ms Bishop) shows they are worried... and I think rightfully so. I still don't think Rudd can win, but it will make it close and probably save the Senate from Coalition control.

It was funny watching Paul Murray Live last night with his pompous attitude mixing with Miranda Divine's never ending stream of vitriol. She was very offended that Rudd was acting like the opposition leader, but all things considered, I think that's exactly the right strategy. If polling remains close things are going to get hilarious.

I'll just warn against too much 'oh this will wear off' - it might, but remember how much of the swing against the ALP was a personal anti-Gillard vote.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd is promoting a lot of women into Cabinet, not all of them from his camp. Also thinking of bringing Abbott with him to the G20, when not saying his would-be travel partner would cause a shooting war with Indonesia.

[politicus]

Rudd offers an SSM referendum if Abbott doesn't allow a conscience vote, but he's rebuffed by activists.

Probably a mistake by the SSM advocates.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Indonesian thing is a bit silly - the core of the Coalition's arguments is that they will 'just do what Howard did' except at no time did the Indonesian government say the policy wouldn't be accepted/tolerated... This is Howard's policy, operated in a different and more complicated scenario. And it's plausible to say it could increase diplomatic tensions with Indonesia... 

No, a SSM marriage referendum would be a huge mistake and set a horrendous precedent...

[Хahar 🤔]

[Tender Branson]

It seems graphics-fail is not only an Austrian thing, but also an Australian ...

[minionofmidas]

So what are the odds Kevin Rudd wins narrowly wins the general election, then falls to a leadership challenge within six months?

[y4t7sds12]

Newspoll
Primary Vote
ALP 35% (+6%)
L/NP 43% (-5%)
Green 11% (+2%)

2PP
L/NP 51%
ALP 49%

Better PM
Rudd 49% (+16%)
Abbott 35% (-10%)

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd will be rewarding some of his friends. Plus his Achilles heel: voters don't believe he's changed. Which he hasn't- that's how Abbott pops the bubble. Finally there's pressure on Rudd to clean up NSW as Dastyari heads to the Senate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Actually... the "hasn't changed" thing is a very badly managed question. Because that also includes people who didn't believe he needed to change. It's only asking "has Rudd changed?"

[Platypus]

New, proper, Roy Morgan poll.

Click the link for results.

3,458 questioned.

[MaxQue]

Am I not properly reading? It's only a bump, I suppose?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It was a bump in comparison to the snap poll taken after the leadership change... so there's been a sizeable swing from the last Morgan Poll with Gillard - (56-44 Coalition), so this has the ALP at a 2% stronger position from the snap poll ... not since the last Gillard poll.

[morgieb]

Am I not properly reading? It's only a bump, I suppose?

That and Roy Morgan are pretty ALP-leaning.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Am I not properly reading? It's only a bump, I suppose?

That and Roy Morgan are pretty ALP-leaning.

[You kip if you want to...]

I go away for a few days and all this happens! Typical.

Not really thinking that it'll work for the ALP though...

[Leftbehind]

So what are the odds Kevin Rudd wins narrowly wins the general election, then falls to a leadership challenge within six months?

That'd be hilarious.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

So what are the odds Kevin Rudd wins narrowly wins the general election, then falls to a leadership challenge within six months?

That'd be hilarious.

Both of those scenarios are unlikely to happen though.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think one is certainly more likely than the other...

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think one is certainly more likely than the other...

The leadership challenge? That's likely to happen, I was focusing more on a Labor victory whenever the election is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the ALP is more likely to win the election than Rudd be forced out after 6 months IF they win.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think the ALP is more likely to win the election than Rudd be forced out after 6 months IF they win.

True, I must apologize, I'm not feeling 100% today.

Will be an interesting campaign and election though. Should the Coalition lose, it will also be interesting as to who they will pick as leader post-election.

[RogueBeaver]

Tally Room won't be there this time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Eh no big loss.