Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

I thought Swan's seat was up for grabs, especially given certain predictions of Rudd being the last man standing in QLD. On your other point, policy's the problem.

[Hifly]

Why don't they poll Rudd's seat? Also if anyone can find the actual figures for each division can they post them here? It only seems to show Kingsford Smith and Blaxland in full.
There is a distinct possibility that the only two Labor MPs left in Western Sydney after September will be Chris Hayes and Tony Burke, the two most socially conservative MPs in the House ALP caucus, which won't bother me.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I thought Swan's seat was up for grabs, especially given certain predictions of Rudd being the last man standing in QLD. On your other point, policy's the problem.

It's actually not... if you look into the polls and go a bit deeper... the policy issues really aren't that unpopular. I think you've got to stop fixating on the carbon price (which is the thing I notice you come back to)... it's more popular than the government is (roughly split now). There really isn't a major policy proposal that can be defined as toxic... or even as a weight. Conservatives will immediately say "yeah, well people hate this carbon tax"... except the evidence doesn't stack up.

It's that they don't like Gillard, they don't trust her and they've kind of stopped listening to her...


I've seen polling out of Rudd's seat, which has him without any swing against him.... but that was a couple of months back.

Yes, if there's one thing the ALP bench needs... more social conservatives to alienate a big whack of their base.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Swan's 2PP number goes from 53% with Gillard to nearly 57% with Rudd

[Hifly]

There is still a significant rump of socially conservative Catholic retirees who form part of the ALP's base, although I do acknowledge that their power is too disproportionately great within the party.
Could David Feeney being preselected for Batman give the Greens a chance at gaining the division? Does Feeney even live in Batman?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Feeney is a decent fit for the seat ... I think it probably ends up 2PP ALP
v Grn - depending on preference deals.

[Velasco]

Lolno.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/in-rudd-we-trust-say-voters-as-annihilation-looms-for-labor-20130608-2nwzq.html

Polling out of 6 Cabinet minister's seats show if Gillard remains leader - Peter Garrett, Craig Emerson and Jason Clare would all lose their seats and the majorities in Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin and Bill Shorten's seats would shrink...

If Rudd were returned... all would hold their seats, with an average improvement of 6.7%...

This comes at the same time as reports emerge that 32 ALP MPs have requested party HQ to arrange a Rudd visit to their electorates in advance of the election.

A friend of mine working for a senior minister tells me, the hope was that Gillard would be able start a shift in support by the end of the Budget sitting session... About 5 weeks ago, I was told internal ALP polling wasn't as terrible as the public polling... but now... they're starting to be as ugly as the public ones...

So, if the Sun-Herald poll is right, is it a sign of a certain Angry Kevin's nostalgia or it's just that Gillard is so terribly unpopular and she's doomed inevitably to defeat? Terrible, in any case, given who is the Liberal opponent.

[morgieb]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

How did you handle Eden-Monaro? As a Canberra-suburb-ACT-small-swing, or as a NSW swing?

Queanbeyan will be driven more by ACT, so the swing will be lower there... but I know the coastal towns will be more coalition-friendly... I think E-M can be held on to, largely because Mike Kelly has established a strong presence as the local MP and the electoral shifts support increased ALP presence in the largest population area... I've given it to the Coalition... but it's going to very, very tight. Especially considering in 2010, Kelly was the only NSW ALP MP to get a swing TO him.

Craig Thomson and Janelle Saffin did too.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmmm... you're right. I had heard nothing about them... obviously Thomson is a different case now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There is still a significant rump of socially conservative Catholic retirees who form part of the ALP's base, although I do acknowledge that their power is too disproportionately great within the party.

It's not just that they're too disproportionally powerful... although they definitely are... they're a decreasing part of the base.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just had a VERY interesting discussion... let's just say I've gone from 40/60 to 60/40 that Gillard will NOT be leader at the election.

[morgieb]

I still have a hard time that Labor will go Rudd this late in the game, unfortunately.

[morgieb]

His impact is over-rated as well, although the election will be more like 2001 than say 1975.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I haven't had a chance to iView Insiders... but it looks like things are turning.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-09/julia-gillard-loses-significant-support-in-caucus/4742626

[RogueBeaver]

They won't do it, and won't succeed if they try. 

[RogueBeaver]

Shorten's still committed to Gillard with 2 sitting weeks left.

[You kip if you want to...]

Anyone?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Some interesting articles....

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-10/green-polling-dates/4743932

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/fickle-fate-labor-keeping-an-eye-out-for-goddess-fortuna-20130609-2ny82.html

[RogueBeaver]

To give us all a laugh, here's Latham on Q&A discussing the current psychodrama. Ore Mine worthy as usual with him.

On a related subject, why are the unions so firmly behind Gillard? Policy, incumbency, political realism, Rudd hatred, wanting a Shorten leadership post-election, all of the above?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, despite Latham's melodramatic intervention... I think he said something important.

My views have wavered a lot over the past few days... going from Gillard should go to no... she should probably hang on... I think like a lot of people who don't want Abbott's wrecking-crew to have total control of the parliament for a decade have been in a weird spot.

But I think I've come to the conclusion that Gillard should stay on, they should grow a pair, go after Abbott (and the plethora of examples to support it) and highlight their achievements. They can minimise the potential losses, but accept the loss as necessary to undertake the renewal work that is desperately needed. If they move to Rudd and they win, all it'll do is extend the dysfunction in the party and send it crashing backwards within 6 months.

[RogueBeaver]

What do you think about his ideas on party reform? IMO there's no realistic path to implementation for the foreseeable future, but still food for thought. I do agree with you on sticking with Gillard.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There hasn't been an impetus for reform since the package put together a couple of years back... their focus has been on surviving... if they lose 15-30 seats and help install Tony Abbott of all people as PM, then I think the internal impetus will be there. The issue is how far it can go and whether or not a new leader will be interested in reducing the union/factional interests... basically, the party needs another Hawke.

[RogueBeaver]

QLD has banned Garrett from campaigning in their schools, WA cancelled a Gillard event. Meanwhile the troika's advising her to hang tough, and she's launched another "misogyny" salvo, with even some of her own MPs bewildered. Tripling down and all that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I won't type what's here (note the Julia Gillard Kentucky Fried Quail)... but this is from a menu at an LNP fundraiser for Mal Brough in Brisbane  earlier this year, with Joe Hockey in attendance.

Considering the response to Gillard's comments... this isn't great for the LNP.



On the school dramas... I get the issue over the WA one (objecting to a fundraiser in a school) but the QLD one is pure politics... and a bit silly if you ask me.

[RogueBeaver]

Grattan's questions for Rudd.