Australia - 7 September 2013

[Knives]

Yeah it's been a sh**t week for them.

Which probably makes you pretty pissed since you're a Labor Left hack.

lol, okay mate.

[morgieb]

There were more Laborites in 1996 and Liberals in 2007 available to quit than there are Laborites right now, but was there a similar sense of imminent doom at this point in those cycles?

Uh... yeah.

The polling is actually closer this year than this point before 1996 and 2007. I say anyone expecting a 1996-2007-like result is probably in for a disappointment.

I don't know about 1996, but didn't Labor only establish a convincing lead in 2007 when Rudd became the leader?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There were more Laborites in 1996 and Liberals in 2007 available to quit than there are Laborites right now, but was there a similar sense of imminent doom at this point in those cycles?

Uh... yeah.

The polling is actually closer this year than this point before 1996 and 2007. I say anyone expecting a 1996-2007-like result is probably in for a disappointment.

I don't know about 1996, but didn't Labor only establish a convincing lead in 2007 when Rudd became the leader?

Nope, Labor led consistently throughout 2006... the massive 10%+ leads came after Rudd yes, but Beazley had a lot of 53-47 polls (that actual 2007 election result)...  the issue was preferred PM, Howard was ahead 54-25.

Interesting poll I found from April 2001... the poll was "who do you think is likely to win the election"

ALP: 65%
Coalition: 23%...

In fact the Government was in deep trouble until August 2001... then it all turned around.

[morgieb]

There were more Laborites in 1996 and Liberals in 2007 available to quit than there are Laborites right now, but was there a similar sense of imminent doom at this point in those cycles?

Uh... yeah.

The polling is actually closer this year than this point before 1996 and 2007. I say anyone expecting a 1996-2007-like result is probably in for a disappointment.

I don't know about 1996, but didn't Labor only establish a convincing lead in 2007 when Rudd became the leader?

Nope, Labor led consistently throughout 2006... the massive 10%+ leads came after Rudd yes, but Beazley had a lot of 53-47 polls (that actual 2007 election result)...  the issue was preferred PM, Howard was ahead 54-25.

Interesting poll I found from April 2001... the poll was "who do you think is likely to win the election"

ALP: 65%
Coalition: 23%...

In fact the Government was in deep trouble until August 2001... then it all turned around.

So going by the patterns....

* Both parties only get a technical majority after sweeping into power (1998 Libs lost the 2PP result, 2010 Labor were forced into supply + confidence agreements to keep the majority)
* Both parties are pretty unpopular, but then things start to go their way, and they eventually gain momentum and win.

It's unclear if that stays solid, but it's interesting. Particularly given the only party that failed to stay in power for 10+ years in recent times was Whitlam's government, and there isn't any scandals of a similar magnitude (or are there?)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, Fraser was 7 years and almost 3 months...

The thing to note, and why I will use the 2001/2004 elections for comparison, but will be careful about applying their lessons too tightly is this.

In 2001, the polling looked terrible, then Tampa in August was followed by 9/11 in September. It allowed John Howard to stoke two elements, xenophobia (basically winning back bogans and other Pauline Hanson types back) and nationalism. Beazley couldn't compete because he was a nice, considered and non-aggressive guy. Howard steam-rolled them.

In 2004, the turn-around didn't really kick in until the campaign was almost upon us. The release of medicare gold, while attractive to the left, basically sent out messages of Whitlam 2.0 ... which sent older people and suburbanites fleeing back to Howard's arms. Then there was the embassy bombing in Jakarta that allowed Howard to bring back the national security argument, against Latham who wasn't too interested in it. That was then followed by 'the handshake' a few days before the election. Latham was a worrying entity to a lot of people due to his image as an aggressive boof-head. The handshake just  pushed undecideds over to Howard and in a big way.

So, it wasn't some kind of natural pattern, circumstances need to exist to force those changes in perception and shift momentum in the other direction.

[Knives]

ugh, that handshake.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hReBMauqhrY

For those who don't know what we're talking about...

[RogueBeaver]

Otherwise known as "How to piss off swing voters, women and pensioners while cementing your reputation as a dickish brawler in a single gesture."

[You kip if you want to...]

Makes Howard look more like a wimp in my opinion, or do I need more context here?

[countydurhamboy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hReBMauqhrY

For those who don't know what we're talking about...

I very little about Australian politics, but it seems amazing that handshake could have swung voters though.                                                                                                                                   I know Gillard has been very unpopular and labour have been clobbered in state elections but I'm still expecting, her to pull of a narrow victory when voters are faced with the choice of PM Abbott.

[Smid]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hReBMauqhrY

For those who don't know what we're talking about...

I very little about Australian politics, but it seems amazing that handshake could have swung voters though.                                                                                                                                                       I know Gillard has been very unpopular and labour have been clobbered in state elections but I'm still expecting, her to pull of a narrow victory when voters are faced with the choice of PM Abbott.

It wasn't the handshake alone, it was just what convinced people that he was a brute. For months before, there had been rumours of a bucks night video (which never actually surfaced) and he was forced to explain why he broke a taxi driver's arm. The handshake didn't make people think he was a thug, it merely allowed them to decide that what they had been told was in fact true. I think prior to the handshake, they were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, caught up in partisan mud-slinging, the handshake dispelled that cynicism.

[countydurhamboy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hReBMauqhrY

For those who don't know what we're talking about...

I very little about Australian politics, but it seems amazing that handshake could have swung voters though.                                                                                                                                                       I know Gillard has been very unpopular and labour have been clobbered in state elections but I'm still expecting, her to pull of a narrow victory when voters are faced with the choice of PM Abbott.

It wasn't the handshake alone, it was just what convinced people that he was a brute. For months before, there had been rumours of a bucks night video (which never actually surfaced) and he was forced to explain why he broke a taxi driver's arm. The handshake didn't make people think he was a thug, it merely allowed them to decide that what they had been told was in fact true. I think prior to the handshake, they were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, caught up in partisan mud-slinging, the handshake dispelled that cynicism.

Thank you, very helpful.

[Platypus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hReBMauqhrY

For those who don't know what we're talking about...

I very little about Australian politics, but it seems amazing that handshake could have swung voters though.                                                                                                                                                       I know Gillard has been very unpopular and labour have been clobbered in state elections but I'm still expecting, her to pull of a narrow victory when voters are faced with the choice of PM Abbott.

It wasn't the handshake alone, it was just what convinced people that he was a brute. For months before, there had been rumours of a bucks night video (which never actually surfaced) and he was forced to explain why he broke a taxi driver's arm. The handshake didn't make people think he was a thug, it merely allowed them to decide that what they had been told was in fact true. I think prior to the handshake, they were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, caught up in partisan mud-slinging, the handshake dispelled that cynicism.

This is pretty much entirely accurate and although the addendum than we never like our politicians to be violent is perhaps useful, there's nothing further to add.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hReBMauqhrY

For those who don't know what we're talking about...

I very little about Australian politics, but it seems amazing that handshake could have swung voters though.                                                                                                                                                       I know Gillard has been very unpopular and labour have been clobbered in state elections but I'm still expecting, her to pull of a narrow victory when voters are faced with the choice of PM Abbott.

It wasn't the handshake alone, it was just what convinced people that he was a brute. For months before, there had been rumours of a bucks night video (which never actually surfaced) and he was forced to explain why he broke a taxi driver's arm. The handshake didn't make people think he was a thug, it merely allowed them to decide that what they had been told was in fact true. I think prior to the handshake, they were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, caught up in partisan mud-slinging, the handshake dispelled that cynicism.

This is pretty much entirely accurate and although the addendum than we never like our politicians to be violent is perhaps useful, there's nothing further to add.

Yup, nail on the head.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New Nielsen poll - ugly, pure ugly

Primary vote
ALP: 30% (-5)
Coalition : 47% (+4)
Greens: 11% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 45%
Coalition: 55%

Preferred PM (first time Gillard's been behind in 7 months)
Gillard: 45% (-4)
Abbott: 49% (+9)

Gillard: 35%
Rudd: 61%

[Smid]

Antony Green has unveiled his latest calculator.

Caveats of no uniform swings, even at a state level, etc, etc. The state level swings tool is useful, however, and it's better than anything else that anybody else has.

[MaxQue]

According to that, Labor needs 51.2% 2PP to have a majority and Coalition needs 50.8% 2PP.

Funny thing, 60-40 gives 114-31-5 no matter the party.

[mattyman]

Gillard called a vote a leadership vote after Simon Crean asked to call a leadership vote, taking place in just under an hour and a half. Abbott has didn't get the absolute majority necessary to force a suspension of standing orders to debate a motion of no confidence in the government.

Fascinating day it is!

[Hifly]

The Western Australian Labor Party Executive has just decided to drop openly gay senator Louise Pratt from the top of the Senate ticket and replace her with an anti-gay social conservative in Joe Bullock. If current polling holds up, Labor may struggle to get more than one senator elected from WA.

[RogueBeaver]

The Western Australian Labor Party Executive has just decided to drop openly gay senator Louise Pratt from the top of the Senate ticket and replace her with an anti-gay social conservative in Joe Bullock. If current polling holds up, Labor may struggle to get more than one senator elected from WA.

Clown show.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

As some of you probably know, Clive Palmer, Australian billionaire, has resurrected the United Australia Party (UAP), previously Australia's main conservative party from 1931-1945, and two Queensland state MPs have already joined.

They plan on running candidates in most seats, and their core policies can be found here:
http://unitedaustralia.org/policies/

[MaxQue]

As some of you probably know, Clive Palmer, Australian billionaire, has resurrected the United Australia Party (UAP), previously Australia's main conservative party from 1931-1945, and two Queensland state MPs have already joined.

They plan on running candidates in most seats, and their core policies can be found here:
http://unitedaustralia.org/policies/

Wow, that's absolutely useless. It's more than vague.

[Gary J]

It seems to be the Anti Green Party, abolishing the carbon tax and promoting mining. The objectives do not say anything obvious about taxation, but presumably a billionaire sponsored party will believe in reducing taxes on the rich.

I suspect the new party will not achieve much.

[Knives]

Anything that divides the right is good.

#praying4jules

[Franzl]

Anything that divides the right is good.

#praying4jules

What good does dividing the opposition do in Australia?