OH-07: Boccieri trying for a comeback

[Miles]

Ex-Rep. John Boccieri filed paperwork for another Congressional run. Rather than facing the guy who bounced him in 2010, Jim Renacci in CD16, he filed in CD7 against Bob Gibbs.

The district that Boccieri represented was split pretty evenly between the new 7th and 16th.

I'm wonder, though, why Boccieri would run again in a midterm year though. The new 7th was 54/44 Romney.

[You Don’t Mess With The Zohran]

Maybe he's hoping for Republican anger to be higher?

What are the demographics like in this district?

[Torie]

Did Boccieri move again, and out of Alliance (the previous town to which he moved), which was shaved off from the CD, to get back into the CD?

[Torie]

Maybe he's hoping for Republican anger to be higher?

What are the demographics like in this district?

It's pretty hyper Pub, except for Canton, which is heavily Dem (the Pub areas in Stark were excised) - all by design of course. Each Pub CD in Ohio (other than OH-01, OH-06 and OH-14, which are in marginal zones, and needed Pub props or Dem excisement or both), was drawn to neutralize some Dem area, and the job of OH-07 was to neutralize Canton.

[Abolish ICE]

Gibbs is a poor fit for OH-7 though.

[Mr.Phips]

If Boccieri should run anywhere, it should probably be in OH-06(where he was going to run in 2006).  Most counties in that district have a Dem history, unlike OH-07. 

Boccieri's performance in OH-16 as an incumbent was pretty terrible even for a year like 2010.  He even lost Stark county for god's sake. 

[TJ in Oregon]

If Boccieri should run anywhere, it should probably be in OH-06(where he was going to run in 2006).  Most counties in that district have a Dem history, unlike OH-07. 

Boccieri's performance in OH-16 as an incumbent was pretty terrible even for a year like 2010.  He even lost Stark county for god's sake. 

Running in either district is basically six of one/half dozen of the other when it comes to the partisan breakdown. It likely comes down to which incumbent Boccieri thinks he has a better chance against, and maybe since he already lost to Renacci once he'd give Gibbs a try.

While most of the counties in OH-6 have a Democratic history, Boccieri isn't even from the right part of the state at all to run there. If Charlie Wilson couldn't win OH-6, it'd be hard to imagine Boccieri winning it.

Also, Stark County isn't exactly a Democratic stronghold. Obama won it by less than half a percent this year. In fact, 2008 was the only year that decade the Democratic congressional candidate won Stark County. Boccieri winning that election at all was an uphill struggle for the Dems to begin with.

[Mr.Phips]

If Boccieri should run anywhere, it should probably be in OH-06(where he was going to run in 2006).  Most counties in that district have a Dem history, unlike OH-07. 

Boccieri's performance in OH-16 as an incumbent was pretty terrible even for a year like 2010.  He even lost Stark county for god's sake. 

Running in either district is basically six of one/half dozen of the other when it comes to the partisan breakdown. It likely comes down to which incumbent Boccieri thinks he has a better chance against, and maybe since he already lost to Renacci once he'd give Gibbs a try.

While most of the counties in OH-6 have a Democratic history, Boccieri isn't even from the right part of the state at all to run there. If Charlie Wilson couldn't win OH-6, it'd be hard to imagine Boccieri winning it.

Also, Stark County isn't exactly a Democratic stronghold. Obama won it by less than half a percent this year. In fact, 2008 was the only year that decade the Democratic congressional candidate won Stark County. Boccieri winning that election at all was an uphill struggle for the Dems to begin with.

Even John Kerry won Stark county and if a Democrat was to even keep the old OH-16 within single digits they had to win Stark county.  It was the only remotely Democratic part of that district. 

Looking at Boccieri's old Senate district, its really strange that he even ran in the old OH-16 in the first place.  The only area where his state Senate district overlapped OH-16 was in like three precincts in far eastern part of Stark.