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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  why are there so many more ultrarepublican than ultrademocrat states? (search mode)
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Author Topic: why are there so many more ultrarepublican than ultrademocrat states?  (Read 2871 times)
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,765

« on: February 10, 2013, 02:37:17 pm »

Its true in 2004, there were far more states where Bush got over 60% than Kerry, however this time around, there were more states where Romney got over 60%, but fewer electoral votes in those states than the ones Obama got over 60%

Romney over 60%

Idaho (4)
Utah (6)
Wyoming (3)
Nebraska (5)
Kansas (6)
Oklahoma (7)
Arkansas (6)
Kentucky (Cool
Alabama (9)
West Virginia (5)

Total 10 states - 59 electoral votes

Obama over 60%

California (55)
Hawaii (4)
Vermont (3)
Massachusetts (11)
Rhode Island (4)
New York (29)
Maryland (10)
DC (3)

Total 7 states + DC for 119 electoral votes.

Now back in 2004, Bush got over 60% in Texas, while Kerry got under 60% in both California and New York thus why on the electoral vote it was heavily tilted towards Kerry.  In 2008 Obama got over 60% in more states than McCain in addition to the 7 this time, he also got over 60% in Illinois, Connecticut, and Delaware which is an additional 30 EV.  By contrast McCain only got over 60% in Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Alabama.

So in summary there really aren't a whole lot more ultra Republican than ultra Democrat.  I think the big difference is unlike 20, 30, or 40 years ago, the nation is a lot more polarized so most sections tend to go strongly towards one side or another as opposed to being competitive.  You have the Northeast and West Coast which are solidly Democrat (Alaska being solidly GOP, while Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are the only competitive states left in the Northeast), while the South is solidly GOP (Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida and to a lesser extent Georgia being the exceptions).  The plains are also solidly GOP while the Mountain West is a mix of swing states (Colorado and Nevada, while New Mexico lean Democrat and Arizona lean Republican) and solid GOP (Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana).  The Midwest is really the only area that is still very competitive as most states asides from the Plains states which are solidly GOP or Illinois which is solidly Democrat most are winneable by both parties under the right conditions.  Indiana and Missouri have strong GOP tilts, while Minnesota and Michigan have a slight Democrat lean.  Wisconsin and Iowa are usually only a percentage or two more Democrat than the nation as a whole while Ohio is still totally a swing state.
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