Japan 2013

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Hashists?

Followers of Osaka mayor Hashimoto Tohru, who is (often accused of being) a fascist.

[jaichind]

See

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-26/sexism-stands-in-way-of-abenomics-saving-japan.html

"Abe called for women filling 30 percent of senior positions in all parts of society by 2020, in an April 19 speech showcasing his growth strategy. Now, his Liberal Democratic Party is fielding 9 female candidates out of 79 for next month’s election to the upper house of parliament -- about 11 percent."

I do not agree with this approach of quotas for what ever category one can come up with it does seem hypocritical of Abe to call for a 30% women quota for senior positions yet have LDP nominate only 11% women.

[jaichind]

Tokyo Prefecture elections this sunday 6/23.  JRP co-leaders Hashimoto and Ishihara are now sniping at each other over Hashimoto's gaffe over confort women.  Ishihara demands that Hashimoto apologize as not doing so will hurt the party in upcoming elections and Hashimoto refuses.
There will be 127 seats available contested over 42 districts which should help small parties get seats versus a pure FPTP system.
Latest poll are
LDP       38
NKP        7
DPJ       10
JCP        6
YP          5
JRP        4

Prediction: LDP will under-perform polls as Abe talks a good game but on the ground level the economy is not really doing better.  NKP and JCP has a lot of loyal voters and their core vote will hold up in a low turnout election.
LDP    35
NKP    14
DPJ    20
JCP    10
YP      8
JRP     8
Others  5

[jaichind]

A Japanese political reporter predicted for Tokyo Prefecture elections out of 127 seats

LDP             57
NKP             23
DPJ              24
JCP              15
YP                 3
JRP               1
Others         4

Which would imply something like the following terms of votes
LDP            36
NKP            16
DPJ             19
JCP             15
YP                5
JRP               3
Others         6

I guess he is much more position on JCP and NKP and more negative on YP as well as JRP than I am.  Although I do agree with him that JCP and NKP really will be the winners in this election.  LDP is merely getting back to where it were before 2009.  JCP and NKP is doing the same but their vote base was suppose to be shrinking but it will be seen that they are not.

[jaichind]

Tokyo Prefecture elections exit polls

LDP         54-59
NKP         22-23
DPJ          14-25
JCP          12-17
JRP            1-5
YP             5-11
Tokyo Life (Local center-left rival of DPJ) 0-4
Others      1-3

[jaichind]

Tokyo prefecture election results slowing coming in.  No real vote count yet, but as expected, where there are districts which has one winner, LDP is winning, where there are two winners it is LDP and DPJ (and once in a while NKP).

[jaichind]

So far it is

LDP     28
DPJ       6
NKP      4
JCP       2

[jaichind]

So far it is

LDP     32
DPJ       8
NKP      6
JCP       2

The larger districts results still outstanding.

[jaichind]

So far it is

LDP     34
DPJ      10
NKP       7
JCP        4

[jaichind]

Looks like all 59 of LDP candidates has won as did all 23 NKP candidates.  NKP and JCP both will overtake DPJ in terms of seats.  YP has 7 and JRP has 2.  Turnout is 43.5%, a drop of more than 10% from 2009.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

So why is it again that the DPJ fell so spectacularly again? Was all of this really fallout from Fukushima?

[jaichind]

DPJ projected to get 15 seats.  JRP co-leader Toru Hashimoto has indicated he may step down depending on the outcome.  Main reason DPJ got trashed is because of low turnout.  LDP, NKP, and JCP have loyal voters either based on party (like NKP and JCP) or candidate loyalty (like LDP).  DPJ always does poorly in low turnout elections.  The fall of over 10% in terms of turnout are most likely demoralized DPJ voters.  Also I am certain that DPJ, in a bid to stop the LDP, over-nominated the number of candidates in districts which are 4 or greater.   It is similar to what happen to DPJ in 2010 Upper house elections.

[jaichind]

This is the lowest showing of LDP in polls since last December.  Despite its victory in the Tokyo Prefecture elections I think the LDP tide is ebbing. 


UPDATE2: LDP leads with 28% support ahead of upper house election: Kyodo poll+

TOKYO, June 23 Kyodo
(EDS: ADDING INFO)
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party had the highest support rating in a Kyodo News survey released Sunday ahead of the upper house election in July, far exceeding that of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan.
The nationwide telephone poll conducted Saturday and Sunday showed that 28.8 percent of the respondents intend to vote for the LDP in the proportional representation section of the House of Councillors election, while 8.2 percent said they plan to vote for the DPJ.
Among other parties, the New Komeito party, the LDP's junior coalition partner, garnered 6.0 percent support, followed by the Japan Restoration Party at 4.8 percent, Your Party at 3.9 percent, the Japanese Communist Party at 3.2 percent, the Social Democratic Party at 0.6 percent, the People's Life Party at 0.2 percent, and New Party Daichi and Green Wind at 0.1 percent each.
The outcome of the election set for July 21 remains uncertain, however, as 37.7 percent of the respondents said they had not decided which party to vote for.
The support rate for the Cabinet of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stood at 65.6 percent, down from 68.0 percent in a Kyodo telephone poll conducted June 1 and 2, while the disapproval rate rose to 23.6 percent from 16.3 percent.
In the latest survey, to which 1,224 eligible voters responded, 56.4 percent said they want the ruling coalition of the LDP and New Komeito to gain a majority in the upper house election, with 27.9 percent saying they do not.
The survey also showed that 35.4 percent will focus on economic stimulus measures, including employment policy, in determining which party to vote for, followed by 28.3 percent who will examine social security-related policies, such as pension and health care measures.
Among other campaign issues, 8.9 percent of the respondents cited the planned consumption tax hike, while 7.7 percent said they will focus on the issue of amending the Constitution.
On revising the Constitution, 50.4 percent expressed support and 33.5 percent expressed opposition.
While the ban on online election campaigning is being lifted for the upcoming election, 60.0 percent of the respondents in the Kyodo survey said they would not refer to information on the Internet, far exceeding the 39.4 percent who said they would.
Kyodo News will conduct its next survey focusing on the upper house election on June 29 and 30.

[jaichind]

Latest and most likely final count

LDP             59
NKP             23
DPJ              15
JCP              17
YP                 7
JRP                2
Tokyo Life     3
Other            1

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

What kind of results, exactly, were JRP expecting or hoping for? It seems like their star has really fallen over the past half a year, which I would be lying were I to say is not immensely gratifying.

[jaichind]

What kind of results, exactly, were JRP expecting or hoping for? It seems like their star has really fallen over the past half a year, which I would be lying were I to say is not immensely gratifying.

Well, JRP ran 34 candidates versus 42 for JCP and 20 for YP.  So it was hoping for something like 7 to 17 (YP and JCP).  It got 2.  Bear in mind that Tokyo is suppose to be another strong area for JRP given the influence of JRP co-leader Ishihara.  It seems that it was mostly a flop.  Despite the fact that DPJ did poorly in this election, on the whole DPJ rather have JRP do as badly as possible.  JRP represents a threat to DPJ's position as the national opposition party, something YP or JCP can never do given the niche nature of both YP or JCP.

[jaichind]

Vote share and seats for Tokyo Prefecture was the following
  

                    Vote      Seat
LDP              36.0       59
NKP             14.1        23
DPJ              15.2        15
JCP              13.6        17
YP                 6.9          7
JRP                8.3         2
Tokyo Life     2.1         3
Others          3.8         1

I was not too far off in my vote share prediction with the exception of JCP and DPJ where about 4% of the vote I thought would go to DPJ went to JCP.  I had thought the JCP voter would vote tactically to defeat LDP/NKP but they voted loyally for JCP.  At least I got the general Right/Left split correct.  

One reason I thought that the DPJ would not do well seat wise would be it over-nominated in districts which multiple winners.   For example it might nominate 2 candidates in districts with 5 or 6 winners when  both will end up losing but if DPJ nominated 1 candidate then that candidate would have won.  I looked at the results and found 5 cases of this.  So if optimized DPJ could have won 20 seats instead of 15.  That is really how NKP won 23 seats with only 14.1% of the vote.   JRP also over-nominated and could have won 2 more seats had it been more optimal in terms of nomination strategy.


Another way to look at the results relative to 2009 is look at the vote normalized to turnout of 53.8% in 2009 and 42.8% in 2013


                               2009    2013     2009 normalized     2013 normalized
LDP                          25.9     36.0             13.9                        15.4
NKP                         13.2      14.1              7.1                           6.0
DPJ                          40.8      15.2             22.0                          6.5
JCP                          12.6      13.6              6.8                           5.8
YP                                           6.9                                              2.9
JRP                                         8.3                                              3.5
Tokyo Life                 2.0        2.1             1.1                            0.9
Others                      5.5        3.8             3.0                            1.6  
Total                       100        100            53.8                         42.8

So what took place between 2009 and 2013 was mostly about LDP NKP, JCP, and Tokyo Life keeping their vote and DPJ losing its vote from 2009 into mostly non-voters and to some extent YP and JRP.  This election result is really a story of the 2009 DPJ voter turned non-voter.  These are people very unhappy with the political system and vote DPJ to show how they feel.  Now that DPJ had a chance at power and pretty up messed up these voters again show apathy and anger by not voting.  The way back for the DPJ is to gain these voters support as a way to show their anger, something which requires JRP to fail so the DPJ is the only alternative.

[jaichind]

One note on Tokyo Life.  It is also called Tokyo Seikatsusha Network which is really based on the Seikatsu consumer co-op which focus on organic food and is mostly made up of women.  Only parallel I can think of is if there was a party in NYC called NYC Whole Food Party.

[jaichind]

Note that Taro Aso was PM and leader of LDP who lead LDP into the rout of 2009.

Poor English saved Japan bankers from Lehman: Taro Aso (former PM and now deputy PM)

Japan's banks emerged from the 2008 global credit crisis largely unscathed because senior employees did not speak English well enough to have got them into trouble, the country's finance minister said Friday.
Taro Aso, who also serves as deputy prime minister, said bankers in Japan had not been able to understand the complex financial instruments that were the undoing of major global players, so had not bought them.
"Many people fell prey to the dubious products, or so-called subprime loans. Japanese banks were not so much attracted to these products, compared with European banks," Aso told a seminar in Tokyo.
"There was an American who said Japanese banks are healthy, but that's not true at all.
"Managers of Japanese banks hardly understood English, that's why they didn't buy," he said.
Aso's comments Friday are the latest in a line of pronouncements that have raised eyebrows.
The one-time prime minister said in January the elderly should be allowed to "hurry up and die" instead of costing the government money with expensive end-of-life medical care.
In 2007 he had to apologise for a quip about patients with Alzheimer's disease and for making light of flood damage in central Japan.
But the deputy prime minister, who is known as a dapper dresser and often seen sporting a jauntily-angled hat, on Friday boasted he had managed to keep his foot out of his mouth since Shinzo Abe came to power as premier in December.
However, the boast was somewhat undermined when he initially got the name of the prime minister wrong.
"I have made no gaffes in the past half year even as newspapers said the Aso administration's... No, the Abe administration's biggest problem is Taro Aso's gaffes," he said.

[Zanas]

So who is "Your Party" appealing to broadly speaking ? And JRP ? And also, is the Tokyo Prefecture a JCP stronghold of some sort, because national polling seems to have them at 3 or 4 % and they still manage to get 13% here.

[DC Al Fine]

So who is "Your Party" appealing to broadly speaking ? And JRP ? And also, is the Tokyo Prefecture a JCP stronghold of some sort, because national polling seems to have them at 3 or 4 % and they still manage to get 13% here.

Your Party appeals to younger pro-business types. JRP is nationalist with all that entails. Someone else can probably provide more detail.

[jaichind]

So who is "Your Party" appealing to broadly speaking ? And JRP ? And also, is the Tokyo Prefecture a JCP stronghold of some sort, because national polling seems to have them at 3 or 4 % and they still manage to get 13% here.

Your Party is a libertarian party that is for less government and lower taxes.  In theory LDP are for those too but YP is different from LDP on issues of farm subsidies (some LDP factions are very much for them) and the traditional and powerful role of bureaucracy  (YP wants to roll them back like DPJ but not LDP.)   JRP is really an anti-politics populist protest party.  It has some policy overlap with LDP but are much more populist and hawkish.   Its voters seem to be made up for protest voters (mostly disappointed ex-DPJ voters.) 

JCP is stronger in Tokyo just like it is stronger in urban areas, just like NKP.  JCP did well mostly because JCP, like LDP, have a long history in Japanese politics so it has a lot of organization at the grass roots.  DPJ does not have such an organization so DPJ does better in national elections and JCP does better at local elections.   

[jaichind]

Latest poll for Upper House PR vote in July are

LDP          31.1
DPJ            7.5
NKP           5.9
JRP            3.3

I am pretty sure given how "cool" it is to support LDP these days, 31.1% is pretty much the ceiling for LDP support and most likely will come in around 30 or so.  (Recall that LDP polled 38 but only then won 36 in the Tokyo Prefecture elections).  This is a big drop from the low to mid 40s support LDP had back in March to May.  NKP will come in at around 14-15.  This will give LDP/NKP block a significant victory but not a landslide like in 2001.   In terms of PR vote this election will be like 2004.  In various district seats since the vote will still be split between DPJ and JRP the scale of victory for LDP/NKP will be significantly larger than 2004.  Of course I think the LDP/NKP FPTP "bonus" will be smaller than is was in 2012 because a) Some districts elect more than 1 member which give DPJ a fighting chance there b) the DPJ and JRP vote would not be split so evenly as in 2012 given the decline of JRP since 2012.  What could sink DPJ is if its voters does not turn out.  

[jaichind]

Hmmm .. I spoke too soon.  Some other polls also came up with LDP support at 42 44 and 45.  If this represented the cap of LDP support (I suspect it will be lower since NKP only polled 4-6 in these surveys and it is certain that NKP will get at least 13) then we are looking at a repeat of the 2001 Upper House elections where LDP/NKP got 78 out of 121 seats.  We will see which poll is correct.

[jaichind]

Abe's LDP to win majority in upper house election: survey+

TOKYO, July 6 Kyodo

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party is expected to secure a majority in the upper house election later this month, wresting control of it away from opposition parties, results of a Kyodo News survey showed Saturday.
The LDP will win more than half of the 121 seats up for grabs in the 242-seat House of Councillors election on July 21, according to the survey conducted Thursday and Friday. Combined with seats won by its junior coalition partner, the New Komeito party, the number exceeds 70.  The ruling bloc needs to win at least 63 seats for a majority in the chamber, given the 59 seats already held and not contested this time. Half of the 242 seats come up for election every three years.  Abe aims to take back the upper house he lost in 2007 and consolidate the comeback to power of the LDP in last December's general election, in which it trounced the Democratic Party of Japan.

The DPJ faces a tough battle in the upcoming election, according to the survey. It may halve its contested 44 seats. Smaller opposition Your Party and the Japan Restoration Party are likely to win only 10 seats or fewer each.  The Japanese Communist Party, which gained seats in last month's Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, is projected to win a few seats in constituencies for the first time in 12 years and also a few in proportional representation.
The Social Democratic Party may lose one of its two contested seats, while People's Life Party and the Green Wind party are expected to gain no seats.  In the telephone opinion poll of some 30,000 voters nationwide, about half said they still had not decided on which party to vote for. So the trend shown by the poll could change during the 17-day official campaign period that started Thursday.  Of the 121 seats, 73 will be filled by the winners from 47 prefectural electoral districts and the remaining 48 by those chosen under the nationwide party-list proportional representation system. Each voter casts two ballots on election day.
Voters who have yet to make up their mind amounted to 55.3 percent for constituencies and 47.6 percent for proportional representation.