Japan 2013

[jaichind]

With 77% of the PR vote we have

             Count    My Prediction     
LDP      35.2%         36.1                       
NKP     14.5％          14.0                         
DPJ      13.5％          18.0
JRP      11.7％            8.8
JCP        9.5％            9.6
YP          8.6％            8.0
SDP        2.2％            2.0
PLP        1.8％            2.2

[jaichind]

Of the 73 district seats, I was incorrect for 7 of them.   Of course about about 45 of the 73 were obvious.  So out of the roughly 28 seats where the result was not obvious I was correct in 21 of them and wrong 7 of them.  My 7 mistakes were
 
Iwate 1- district - I predicted LDP victory, but ex-DPJ incumbent won 39.7 vs 26.4 for LDP
Miyagi 2- district - I predicted DPJ wins second seat, but YP won over DPJ 23.3 vs 22.8
Tokyo 5- district - I predicted  DPJ wins a seat, but anti-nuclear independent won with 11.9 vs 9.9 for DPJ
Saitama  3- district - I predicted DPJ wins a seat, but YP won over DPJ 16.5 vs 13.3
Osaka 4- district - I predicted DPJ wins a seat, but JCP won over DPJ 12.8 vs 9.2
Kyodo 2- district - I predicted DPJ wins a seat, but JCP won over DPJ 20.7 vs 19.0
Hyōgo 2- district - I predicted DPJ wins a seat, but JRP won over DPJ 26.1 vs 15.0

Other than Hyōgo which I totally underestimated the baseball star factor, the rest were at least close in terms of vote share to what I thought might happen.  I guess same is true for Iwate but there I had no insight into the tactical voting between the ex-DPJ independent, PLP and DPJ blocks which clearly shifted to the ex-DPJ independent.  I always called Iwate to LDP only because I thought the anti-LDP would be split between three candidates.  I merely failed to predict the tactical voting that took place.

[jaichind]

At this stage we can be pretty sure the seat count would be

             District  PR       Tot    Not up    Tot Upper house
LDP        47       18        65      50                   115
NKP          4        7         11        9                     20 
DPJ         10        7         17      42                    59
JRP           2        6          8         1                      9
YP            4        4           8       10                    18
JCP          3         5          8         3                    11
PLP          0        0           0         2                      2
SDP         0        1           1         1                      2
Others    3        0           3         2                      5

LDP+NKP = 135
LDP+YP+JRP = 142

162 needed for 2/3 majority.  No way any real constitutional changes takes place unless somehow DPJ or NKP is on board.


 

[jaichind]

The more the results comes in the less impressive for the LDP/NKP it gets.  Yes, it won 76 seats, but in 2001 Koizumi's ruling alliance of LDP/NKP/NCP won 78 seats.  In 2001 LDP/NKP/NCP won 55.9% of the PR vote as opposed to 49.5% now for LDP/NKP.  The LDP/NKP victory is again built on the split between the opposition vote in the district vote.  In fact if LDP/NKP was more aggressive and risky in its nomination strategy it could have gotten 4-6 more district seats and even surpassed Koizumi in 2001 in seat count.  But it is a victory built on split of its opponents than any great innate strength or ability. 

[jaichind]

With 86% of the PR vote we have

             Count    My Prediction    
LDP      35.0%         36.1                        
NKP     14.3％          14.0                        
DPJ      13.4％          18.0
JRP      11.8％            8.8
JCP        9.6％            9.6
YP          8.9％            8.0
SDP        2.2％            2.0
PLP        1.8％            2.2

[jaichind]

Of course the prediction I made I take the most pride in is the fact that LDP PR vote is now below 35%.  I always said that all those polls and then pundit predictions of LDP getting 40%, 45% or even 50% of the PR vote was hogwash.  I said that LDP/NKP would be lucky to cross 50% although I predicted that they would barely cross it.  Now they are at 49.3%.  

Like I said, it is "cool" support LDP so the polls show these absurd numbers which ended up to be 35% or less. Lots of those people answering that they support LDP just did not vote just like the demoralized DPJ voters.  

What I take pride in is I know of no Japanese political pundit that made the call that LDP will be well below 40% like I did.  And even I overestimated LDP PR vote by about 1%.

On the flip side, is my goof up on the DPJ PR vote.  I predicted 18% it is coming in at 13.4%.  Same with JRP which I predicted 8.8% and it ended up being 11.8%. I guess these two goof ups are mirror images of each other.  My model had almost half of the JRP voter from 2012 being made up of unhappy DPJ but anti-LDP voters.  I figured given the implosion of JRP last couple of months these voters would come back to LDP. It seems they just did not vote.  I also think these JRP comfort women blowups had the affect of drive the fringe nationalist right vote to come out in large numbers to show their support of a hard nationalist position.  LDP ended not getting that vote but JRP did.  Also I assumed more tactical voting by various small center-left parties supporters in favor of DPJ than really took place. 

[jaichind]

With 96% of the PR vote we have

             Count    My Prediction    
LDP      34.8%         36.1                        
NKP     14.2％          14.0                        
DPJ      13.4％          18.0
JRP      11.9％            8.8
JCP        9.7％            9.6
YP          8.9％            8.0
SDP        2.2％            2.0
PLP        1.8％            2.2
NPD       1.0%
GP         0.9%
GW        0.8%

NPD is New Party Daichi, LDP regional splinter based in Hokkaido and on and off DPJ ally.
GP is Green party
GW is Green Wind which is DPJ splinter.

[jaichind]

With 99% of the PR vote we have

             Count    My Prediction     
LDP      34.7%         36.1                       
NKP     14.2％          14.0                         
DPJ      13.4％          18.0
JRP      11.9％            8.8
JCP        9.7％            9.6
YP          8.9％            8.0
SDP        2.4％            2.0
PLP        1.8％            2.2
NPD       1.0%
GP         0.9%
GW        0.8%

NPD is New Party Daichi, LDP regional splinter based in Hokkaido and on and off DPJ ally.
GP is Green party
GW is Green Wind which is DPJ splinter.

[jaichind]

With all of PR vote counted we have

             Count    My Prediction           Diff
LDP      34.7%         36.1                  -1.4%     
NKP     14.2％          14.0                  +0.2%     
DPJ      13.4％          18.0                  -4.6%
JRP      11.9％            8.8                  +3.1%
JCP        9.7％            9.6                  +0.1%
YP          8.9％            8.0                  +0.9%
SDP        2.4％            2.0                 +0.4%
PLP        1.8％            2.2                  -0.4%
NPD       1.0%
GP         0.9%  other  1.3%              +1.8%           
GW        0.8%
HRP       0.4%

NPD is New Party Daichi, LDP regional splinter based in Hokkaido and on and off DPJ ally.
GP is Green party
GW is Green Wind which is DPJ splinter.
HRP is Happy Realization Party which is a party based on the Happy Realization cult.

[jaichind]

I did my calculation on District vote and show it below along with PR vote

            PR vote      District vote
LDP      34.7%          42.8%  
NKP     14.2％             5.1%
DPJ      13.4％           16.3%
JRP      11.9％             7.3%
JCP        9.7％           10.6%
YP          8.9％             7.8%
SDP        2.4％            0.8%
PLP        1.8％             1.2%
NPD       1.0%             0.8%
GP         0.9%             0.1%      
GW        0.8%             1.2%
HRP       0.4%             1.1%
Others                        1.3%
Ind                              1.9%
Pro-DPJ Ind                 1.8%

Some DPJ members (mostly incumbents)  ran as independents and all together won 1.8% of the vote.  So pan-DPJ won 18.1% of the district vote.  I had expected the pan-DPJ vote to be more like 22%.  I think that is why I missed on 5 of the 7 district seats I did not predict correctly.  

Note that LDP/NKP district vote of 47.9% is below the 48.9% of the combined LDP/NKP PR vote.  But they are very close.  So it can be said that overall pro-ruling block vote and anti-ruling block votes are roughly equal.    

JRP and YP did not run candidates everywhere so their district vote fell below their PR vote.  It is a good thing they did not.  In 2012 JRP and JP was able to mostly coordinate their nomination strategy as to not hurt each other in winnable seats.  JRP and YP lost 4 seats by running against each other, 3 to DPJ and 1 to JCP.  Had they run more candidates the DPJ would have benefited even more, namely 2 YP seats would have went DPJ had JRP ran a candidate in the respective districts.

JCP ran ahead of its PR vote.  Again, no JCP tactical voting in favor of DPJ which was critical feature of the DPJ victory in 2009.

That the HRP can get 1.1% of the district vote shows how sad things have become that over 1% of the voting population would use their vote for a cult whose leader claims to be  the incarnation of the supreme spiritual being called El Cantare and claims he received a message from the spirit of the recently deceased "angel of light", former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, urging Japan to attack Mainland China and North Korea.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

I feel back for Ozawa.  PLP might very much end up with nothing.  This is a person that could have been PM back in the early 1990s as leader of LDP, and again in the mid 1990s as leader of NPF and again after 2009 as leader of DPJ.  He has been in politics since 1969.  What a sad end to his career, if this is the end.   

It's hard to say he didn't have it coming, but there's definitely a tragic element to his current ignominy.

I'm a little irritated that JRP got a higher PR vote than JCP, and upset that Green Wind got shut out, although I suppose one could have seen it coming.

Is there anywhere online I can go for a comprehensive list of the results?

[FredLindq]

DPJ pushed into third place by NKP... Will DPJ try to reinvent itself now?

Why were the opinion polls that wrong and your predictions that right?

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

DPJ pushed into third place by NKP... Will DPJ try to reinvent itself now?

DPJ was already pushed into third place in the block PR by JRP in the House of Representatives election back in December, so it's not 'new' exactly, but coming in third in PR, with two different parties taking second, in two consecutive national elections should be very concerning indeed, as if they didn't have enough to be concerned about.

[FredLindq]

That was my point since I know that JRP was stronger rhan DPJ in 2012.

The centre left and left in Japan seems to be in a mess. Ok, JCP does well but not even 10%, with SDP the left has 12%. With DPJ the centre left has 25%! This has to be a rock bottom result for them.

[jaichind]

See

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/#map

for results. They are in Japanese. If you click around you will see results for PR.  It also has a map which will have the district results.  I guess we have to wait for "official" results in tabulated form. 

[jaichind]

DPJ pushed into third place by NKP... Will DPJ try to reinvent itself now?

Why were the opinion polls that wrong and your predictions that right?

Well, I was not "right" either as I was wildly off on the DPJ and JRP results.  Of course the pundits also underestimated JRP and underestimated DPJ just I overestimated DPJ.  I think I was closer to the results for LDP vote mainly because I did not take those polls of LDP at 40-45% PR vote at face value when it came to turnout.  I am not saying that those people lied to the pollsters.  Only that we are in an era where it is safe from a conformist point of view to say they are for LDP.  Many of the non-voters would say they are for LDP when asked mainly because they hear things on the media about LDP's bold program and that Abe is on a roll even though they would never vote, for LDP or anyone else.  So when it came to voting, I expected LDP support to be much lower and they were.  JCP and NKP are the opposite.  Both are associated with what many would call fringe so their supporters would not be vocal about their support but will have high turnout.  I think something similar took place for JRP after the various gaffes it became non-conformist for be for JRP so their polls suffered even though their vote held up relative to what could have taken place, not from 2012 though.   

[jaichind]

That was my point since I know that JRP was stronger rhan DPJ in 2012.

The centre left and left in Japan seems to be in a mess. Ok, JCP does well but not even 10%, with SDP the left has 12%. With DPJ the centre left has 25%! This has to be a rock bottom result for them.

I think it comes down to lack of vision.  DPJ, SDP, PLP, and Green Wind all ran on protecting current lifestyles from global macro trends.  At least  LDP, YP, and JRP all in different ways are calling for doing things different to deal with these trends.  One could disagree with these different ideas but the center-left parties look like has beens while the center-right looks it has a vision of aspiration by comparison. 

[jaichind]

I think the apathy on the Left can be measured in several ways.  What is different about this election versus 2012 is that this time LDP/NKP PR vote actually outperformed its district vote by 1%, whereas in 2012 the LDP/NKP PR vote ran 5% behind its district vote.  LDP is most a machine politics party where its grassroots organization is very strong, so LDP/NKP district vote outpacing its PR vote is normal, especially in a low turnout election like 2012.  In 2013 this seems to have been reversed which means that the LDP/NKP brand is actually attracting those who are not part of the LDP/NKP machine.  We can see the inverse on the left.  What I did is to add up all the center left PR vote (DPJ, SDP, PLP, NPD, GP, GW) which addes up to 20.3%, and then add up the district votes of these parties and like-minded independents which are associated or endorced by these parties or has platforms which are smiliar to the center-left platforms. This comes out to 23.9%.  So there is a gap of 3.6%. That is not all, in Toyama, Wakayama, Yamaguchi, and Ehime, the center-left parties did not even put up a fight in the district seats.  If they had then the district vote of the center-left would be even higher.  This to some extent explains why the JCP district vote is higher than its PR vote by 1%, where some center-left voters with no other choice voted JCP.  This means that the center-left parties which really are not machine parties could attract 3.6% votes at the personal level than what the party name could bring.  This is a sign of poor brand which I feel is because of lack of vision.

[FredLindq]

But in all 24% for the centre left ranging from communists to liberals or even pro market liberals is a very low support. I would say that the Japanese electorate is even more right wing than the US.

[Zuza]

I would say that the Japanese electorate is even more right wing than the US.

I wouldn't say that. American electorate is consistently ideologically right-wing while most of Japanese voters seems to vote not on ideological grounds or to much less extent on ideological grounds than American voters. Don't forget that only 4 years ago left-wing parties (DPJ-led coalition and JCP) together received 57% in Lower House election. Now most of then left-wing voters either didn't vote or shifted towards some of right-wing parties (in December election mostly towards JRP, if I understand correctly). Maybe in a several years Japanese electorate become 'left-wing' again.

[jaichind]

But in all 24% for the centre left ranging from communists to liberals or even pro market liberals is a very low support. I would say that the Japanese electorate is even more right wing than the US.

Well, the 24% is the non-JCP center-left vote.   In Japan right/left have two axis. One axis is the hawk-dove axis.  In this case, all LDP JRP HRP and to some extent YP are hawkish and the rest are dovish including NKP.  If so the hawk-dove split is around  55/45 in this election.  Another axis is economic reform/status quo axis.  Here LDP itself have reform and anti-reform factions as does DPJ.  So a vote here for LDP or DPJ is not necessary for or against economic reform.  In this election roughly LDP is for reform but many anti-reform machine LDP voters also voted LDP.  With the views of parities all mixed up for this one cannot necessary derive that the left has low support in Japan.

[jaichind]

Another interesting thing about places where the center-left did not really contest like Toyama, Wakayama, Yamaguchi, and Ehime is how high the HRP vote was.  In these 4 places the HRP district vote is 4.4, 3.7, 4.0, 2.5.  HRP usually gets 0.4% of the district vote but this election got 1.1% of the district vote overall.  This shows the desire on a block of the population to reject the LDP that when presented with no choice, some will not just refuse to vote as is most likely, some will come out to vote (over 3%) for a cult whose leader claims to be  the incarnation of the a supreme spiritual and claims to talk to the people in the afterlife.  Now that is opposition.  This is the untapped vote source of the center-left if it could come up with a long term vision.