Japan 2013

[jaichind]

In Kyodo it is neck-to-neck between DPJ and JCP for the second of 2 seats.  As I predicted, YP wins third of four seats in Kanagawa after LDP and NKP.  It is DPJ vs JCP for the forth and last seat of Kanagawa.

[jaichind]

In Miyagi it is DPJ vs YP for the second seat.  In WWII fame Hiroshima, it is DPJ vs PLP (ironically as PLP could not in Iwate but is in the race in Hiroshima) for the second seat. 

[jaichind]

DPJ has 14 seats now.  If it is lucky it can sweep the 4 remaining races and get 1 and perhaps 2 more PR seats for a max of 20 seats.
LDP has 63, it can win one more in Tokyo and that's it for 64.  I guess 65-66 if they can go from 17 PR seats to 18 or 19.  18 is likely 19 less so. 

[jaichind]

Pretty sure in Miyagi it is DPJ over YP for the second seat.  One more correct prediction for me which is turning out to be a mixed record of some wins and some losses. 

[Hash]

Well, at least there's no outright two-thirds majority for LDP/NKP.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Well, at least there's no outright two-thirds majority for LDP/NKP.

Nor even LDP/NKP/JRP, for me as someone who's concerned about certain elements of the Constitution. (Over which elements there is reason to believe, if I am not mistaken, that NKP may break from LDP anyway.)

[jaichind]

Oops.  Looks like YP had a late surge and won Miyagi over DPJ.   
JCP beat out DPJ in Kyodo.  DPJ won over PLP in Hiroshima.
As expected LDP won the last seat in Tokyo.   Still very close between JCP and DPJ for the 4th and last seat in Kanagawa.

Meanwhile, with 12% of the PR vote in it is

LDP          39.2
NKP          14.3
DPJ           14.0
JRP           10.0
JCP             8.0
YP               7.0
SDP             2.4
PLP             2.0

[jaichind]

DPJ wins 4th and last seat in Kanagawa beating out JCP.
All district seats called.  Only PR is left.

It seems that SDP will get a PR seat but PLP still not sure.  JRP doing better than expected. 

[Hash]

Why is it that the Communists are so strong in Kyoto?

[jaichind]

Why is it that the Communists are so strong in Kyoto?

JCP are stronger in urban areas anyway. Kyoto used to be a JCP and SDP stronghold.  Low turnout this time carried JCP who won the second seat with 20% of the vote over DPJ's 19%.

[jaichind]

In PR with 25% of the vote counted it is

LDP    37.3%
NKP    14.5%
DPJ     13.8%
JRP     10.8%
JCP       8.7%
YP         7.7%
SDP      2.3%
PLP       1.9%

Low turnout means JCP and NKP does well and DPJ does poorly.  Like I predicted it hit LDP somewhat as well.  JRP is a surprise but I guess JRP has some die-hard supporters that turned out in large numbers.  The block that used to vote for DPJ but went to JRP in 2012 did not seem to show up this election.  They did not go JRP but still demoralized about DPJ.

[jaichind]

Yasue Funayama, ex-member of DPJ and leader of the Green Wind party lost her race for re-election in Yamagata losing to the LDP 48-45.  My fault.  I got this district mixed up with another district and thought the main opponent was a YP candidate.  Anyhow, DPJ supported her but this region is too strong with LDP machine so in the end she lost.

[jaichind]

DPJ goofed up its Tokyo strategy.  It first nominated 2 candidates for the 5 seats available.  Then it realized there is no hope of winning 2 seats and asked the weaker of the 2 candidate to step down.  She refused and ran as an independent.  She took 4.2% of the vote and had that vote went to the DPJ candidate with 9.9% of the vote the DPJ candidate would have won and squeezed out the LDP candidate that beat the DPJ candidate only by 1%.  DPJ would have won a seat and deprived its LDP rival a seat that everyone thought was a shoe in.   

[Hash]

Why is it that the Communists are so strong in Kyoto?

JCP are stronger in urban areas anyway. Kyoto used to be a JCP and SDP stronghold.  Low turnout this time carried JCP who won the second seat with 20% of the vote over DPJ's 19%.

That doesn't answer my question.

[jaichind]

Why is it that the Communists are so strong in Kyoto?

JCP are stronger in urban areas anyway. Kyoto used to be a JCP and SDP stronghold.  Low turnout this time carried JCP who won the second seat with 20% of the vote over DPJ's 19%.

That doesn't answer my question.

Hmm.. Let me clarify.  Kyodo was always a strong place for JCP back in the 1960s and 1970s.   Mainly because Kyodo unions are strong and it has at lot of left wing college campuses.  In a high turnout election it is not enough to get JCP to win but in a low turnout election it is enough.

[jaichind]

That I got Hyōgo wrong is a shock since I was way off.  The swing against DPJ is massive.  In 2010 DPJ got 39% of the district vote and got 44% of the district vote in 2007.  This time it got 15% and came in third behind JRP who won 26% out of nowhere.  Of course the JRP candidate is Takayuki Shimizu who is a fairly famous baseball player.  I knew that but thought that it would help that much.  It appears it did. 

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

I was going to say that about the universities in Kyoto too. I wasn't aware that unions were especially strong there.

[jaichind]

With 37% of the PR vote we have

             Count    My Prediction
LDP      36.2%         36.1
NKP     14.5％          14.0
DPJ      13.4％          18.0
JRP      11.4％            8.8
JCP        9.2％            9.6
YP          8.1％            8.0
SDP        2.2％            2.0
PLP         1.9％            2.2

Looks like I am spot on (so far) except for DPJ where I think a lot of the vote I expected to get ended going to minor parties and JRP which I underestimated.

[jaichind]

I was going to say that about the universities in Kyoto too. I wasn't aware that unions were especially strong there.

They were strong back in the 1960s and 1970s and now is much weaker.  But I guess in a low turnout election all this plus university vote plus protest votes is enough to get 20% to win.

[jaichind]

I feel back for Ozawa.  PLP might very much end up with nothing.  This is a person that could have been PM back in the early 1990s as leader of LDP, and again in the mid 1990s as leader of NPF and again after 2009 as leader of DPJ.  He has been in politics since 1969.  What a sad end to his career, if this is the end.   

[jaichind]

With 47% of the PR vote we have

             Count    My Prediction     
LDP      35.7%         36.1                       
NKP     14.5％          14.0                         
DPJ      13.5％          18.0
JRP      11.6％            8.8
JCP        9.3％            9.6
YP          8.3％            8.0
SDP        2.2％            2.0
PLP        1.9％            2.2

[jaichind]

DPJ set a target of 20 seats this election as the threshold before it should begin to question its own right to exist, at least in its current form.  Now that it will be most likely 17 seats, after this election there might be radical re-think of the DPJ strategy.  I always felt it had to form a grand alliance of center-left parties like SDP, NP Daichi, PLP, Green Breeze, and Green Party.  Then beyond that form a alliance with NKP with tactical understanding with JCP.  This is needed to counter the eventual LDP plus JRP and YP combo.

[jaichind]

With 58% of the PR vote we have

             Count    My Prediction     
LDP      35.6%         36.1                       
NKP     14.6％          14.0                         
DPJ      13.4％          18.0
JRP      11.6％            8.8
JCP        9.3％            9.6
YP          8.4％            8.0
SDP        2.2％            2.0
PLP        1.8％            2.2

[jaichind]

With 67% of the PR vote we have

             Count    My Prediction    
LDP      35.4%         36.1                        
NKP     14.5％          14.0                        
DPJ      13.4％          18.0
JRP      11.5％            8.8
JCP        9.5％            9.6
YP          8.6％            8.0
SDP        2.3％            2.0
PLP        1.8％            2.2

LDP+NKP officially below 50% for now.

[jaichind]

This is the best JCP performance of any general election since 2000.  Back in the 1990s JCP would be in the double digits in terms of support.  The rise of DPJ meant that anti-LDP votes drifted to DPJ.