Japan 2013

[jaichind]

Upper house elections coming up in Japan 2013

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election,_2013

Abe and LDP still riding high after their victory in late 2012.  Latest Kyodo News poll show the latest Cabinet approval rate exceeded the 65.0 percent high Abe secured at the start of his one-year stint as prime minister from September 2006. The disapproval rating this time stood at 22.1 percent.
In the survey, 37.2 percent of the respondents said they intend to vote for the LDP in the proportional representation section of the House of Councillors election in the summer, compared with 12.1 percent for the newly launched Japan Restoration Party, co-headed by Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto and former Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, 8.8 percent for the Democratic Party of Japan and 6.2 percent for Your Party.
The LDP's approval rating also increased 6.4 points to 40.7 percent, exceeding 40 percent for the first time since January 2007, when Abe was in power. Other parties' approval ratings stood at 9.6 percent for the Japan Restoration Party, 9.5 percent for the DPJ, 6.4 percent for
Your Party, 3.1 percent for the New Komeito party, the LDP's junior coalition partner, 2.5 percent for the Japanese Communist Party and 1.0 percent for the Social Democratic Party, while 24.3 percent said they do not support a specific party.

These numbers will most likely change after the LDP-NKP regime is in power for a while but so far LDP/NKP looking good to recapture Upper House majority with the upcoming election.

[Frodo]

This is like a replay of the early 1990s.  Apparently no political party has yet emerged that can serve as the (semi-) permanent opposition to the LDP/NKP coalition.  Japan is still saddled with a one-party dominant political system with occasional (and brief) departures from the norm.  

[Dereich]

It also sounds like the Japan Restoration Party hasn't collapsed entirely yet. That's a bit disappointing. What ever happened to Ozawa's group?

[jaichind]

Latest on Ozawa

Power broker Ozawa launches small opposition party+
TOKYO, Jan. 25 Kyodo
Political power broker Ichiro Ozawa officially launched a small opposition party, called the People's Life Party, on Friday.
Ozawa replaced Yuko Mori as head of the new party formed by 15 lawmakers -- seven House of Representatives members and eight House of Councillors members -- at an inauguration meeting held in Tokyo. Ozawa, 70, and his followers left the then ruling Democratic Party of Japan in July 2012 in opposition to a plan to raise the consumption tax from the current 5 percent to 10 percent in October 2015. They formed the People's Life First Party.
Just before December's general election for the lower house, Ozawa and his followers joined the antinuclear Tomorrow Party of Japan founded by Shiga Gov. Yukiko Kada. But the party largely failed to gain support in the Dec. 16 general election.
After the Tomorrow Party of Japan split into two groups in December, Ozawa and his followers formed the People's Life Party, which initially selected upper house member Mori as its leader.
Ozawa and his colleagues plan to work out the party's policy program and basic policies ahead of the 150-day regular session of the Diet to be convened Monday next week.
In the general election, the Liberal Democratic Party led by Shinzo Abe scored a landslide victory. Abe was elected prime minister succeeding Yoshihiko Noda of the DPJ.
Ozawa, a 15th-term lower house member, is known to have wielded enormous clout as a power broker in Japanese politics and was a driving force behind the DPJ's rise to power in 2009. He was DPJ secretary general under then Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama who was in office between August 2009 and June 2010.

[jaichind]

As for JRP, we will see.  Depends if Abe is serious about constitutional changes to allow Japan to have a military.  If he is serious then JRP is key since without JRP there is no way Abe can get to a 2/3 majority in both houses to pass this.  NKP I suspect will have problem with this as well. If Abe is not serious then if LDP/NKP capture a majority in the Upper house elections this summer then JRP will be not be a relevent player other than LDP B-team.  At least Your Party has a clear economic vision but JRP is just a bunch of solgans and personality cults. 

[Darth Maul]

Hopefully JRP collapses.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

As for JRP, we will see.  Depends if Abe is serious about constitutional changes to allow Japan to have a military.  If he is serious then JRP is key since without JRP there is no way Abe can get to a 2/3 majority in both houses to pass this.  NKP I suspect will have problem with this as well. If Abe is not serious then if LDP/NKP capture a majority in the Upper house elections this summer then JRP will be not be a relevent player other than LDP B-team.  At least Your Party has a clear economic vision but JRP is just a bunch of solgans and personality cults. 

I hope Abe is not serious about the constitutional changes, both on principle and for the reasons you indicate here.

[jaichind]

Looks like Hashimoto is trying to M&A his way to the top.  Not sure this is going to work as the social bases of JRP and YP are not really overlapping.  2012 election YP supporters tend to be for LDP and 2012 election JRP are really ex-DPJ voters that oppose LDP but wanted an alternative.  As I mentioned before, DPJ needs to form a broad center-left block of DPJ, Ozawa's PLP, and DSP as the alternative to LDP in 2013 or it might shrink.  All things equal a DPJ-PLP-DSP block will have a better chance to survive as the LDP-NKP alternative than a JRP-YP block, mostly due to tactical voting by JCP supporters in FPTP seats.



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OSAKA - Toru Hashimoto, a chief member of Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party) who acts as its joint representative while also serving as the mayor of Osaka, stated he would again form a new political party after merging or collaborating with another small party "Your Party," along with some members of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).

The aim would be to gather enough strength to challenge the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the next House of Councillors election to be held this summer, local press said on Tuesday.

Hashimoto told reporters Monday that it would be the best choice for Japan's future if the country could establish a new political force against the LDP through collaboration between members of Nippon Ishin no Kai and Your Party as well as some from the DPJ. He added that he would not mind discarding the party's original name, Nippon Ishin no Kai, to achieve that goal.

The daily Yomiuri Shimbun pointed out that Hashimoto made this sudden statement because the opposition parties had to compete with each other in last month's Lower House election, which resulted in a landslide victory for the LDP.

Hashimoto apparently hopes that the new political party he envisages will get enough seats in the Diet to be a "second force" after the LDP and its coalition partner New Komei Party, thus taking over the current role of the DPJ, the report added.

In the meantime, local media said because of Hashimoto's ambitious plan, fierce competition to take the political initiative in national politics between Nippon Ishin no Kai and Your Party is expected to further heat up ahead of the next Upper House election.

On Tuesday, meanwhile, Ichiro Matsui, secretary general of Nippon Ishin no Kai and Osaka Governor, said that the party should adjust the number of candidates it nominates so as not to overlap with those from Your Party in constituencies that elect between one and three Diet members. He added that the party should avoid the risk of candidates from the two parties making similar pledges and competing with each other in the same constituency.

[後援会]

This looks increasingly brutal. This doesn't even see like the 1955-1994. The JSP at least put up token resistance. The DPJ seems to have just completely dissipated.

I don't know why Abe's approval ratings are so incredibly high. I despise almost every policy he's enacted and yet I still kind of approve of him. Is the water drugged or something for all of us?

[jaichind]

Looking at the polls this will be a mssive LDP/NKP landslide.  DPJ will struggle to come in second versus JRP/YP alliance.  The multiple member districts might come in to save DPJ.  They have to bet that LDP/NKP will overnominate given their huge lead in the polls, then hope the undecided break for DPJ.  This way DPJ can still get a respectable number of seat although much reduced.  DPJ also must form an alliance with PNP, SDP and the Ozawa party.  Otherwise the scale of LDP victory, as Koenkai ponts out, will exceed anything that took place even in 1955-1994.  Perhaps 1986 might come close, but NKP (or KP) back then was in the opposition, now their vote will be added to the ruling block.

[RogueBeaver]

So Abe will have his supermajority. Is he still planning revision of Article 9 or has that been quietly shelved since the election?

[jaichind]

So Abe will have his supermajority. Is he still planning revision of Article 9 or has that been quietly shelved since the election?

Even if Abe gets a supermajority, NKP which is mostly dovish will most likely block this.  What will make or break this is mostly how JRP/YP does.  If they do well then there will be a supermajority for revising Article 9.  In the end I suspect it will not happend even if numbers are there mostly due to extrenal diplomatic pressure.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Hashimoto has called comfort women 'necessary' and encouraged US troops on Okinawa to make more use of 'adult entertainment'.

Presented without comment.

[politicus]

Hashimoto has called comfort women 'necessary' and encouraged US troops on Okinawa to make more use of 'adult entertainment'.

Presented without comment.

I already made a thread about it on the International General board.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=173525.0

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Hashimoto has called comfort women 'necessary' and encouraged US troops on Okinawa to make more use of 'adult entertainment'.

Presented without comment.

I already made a thread about it on the International General board.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=173525.0

I thought it might belong here, too, for that it might affect the JRP's fortunes in July.

[jaichind]

I thought it might belong here, too, for that it might affect the JRP's fortunes in July.

I agree.  I may be too Machiavellian in my thinking but I think Hashimoto made the comment as a way to capture the polarize the electorate and capture the revisionist vote. Hashimoto's goal is influence.  A LDP landslide in the upcoming Upper House polls does not help Hashimoto.  What he wants is a situation where LDP needs NKP/YP to get things done.  So Hashimoto says something like this to capture the revisionist vote and polarize the electorate so the DPJ does not fall apart.  The result is a muted LDP victory and not a crushing one.  Not sure it will work but that is what I think Hashimoto is up to.

[Beet]

This looks increasingly brutal. This doesn't even see like the 1955-1994. The JSP at least put up token resistance. The DPJ seems to have just completely dissipated.

I don't know why Abe's approval ratings are so incredibly high. I despise almost every policy he's enacted and yet I still kind of approve of him. Is the water drugged or something for all of us?

I approve of him too, but for the opposite reasons. His reforms are critically necessary; in fact they're the most dramatic hopeful news to come out of Japan in 20 years (which is my entire lifetime of being aware of such things). Aggressive QE and inflation targeting is what Paul Krugman has been advocating for years.

Abe's policies have only one potential risk and one downside. The only risk is that they fail to get enacted due to resistance from entrenched interests, such as the farmers (a bond market dislocation is an ever-present risk, but I don't see it as playing out from a theoretical perspective at the moment). The only downside is that they're being implemented by a right-wing government. It's a shame that it's now being enacted by a right-winger instead of the DPJ government which had a chance to enact them; and that the Fukushima Dai-ichi disaster happened under the DPJ instead of Abe.

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21578052-shinzo-abe-shaking-up-japans-economy-seems-different-man-one-whose-previous

Anyway, back to discussion about the election.

[jaichind]

Latest Kyodo News Poll

LDP                       44.6
DPJ                         7.9
JRA                         4.5
New Komeito         6.4
Your Party              4.0
JCP                         2.6
SDP                        0.8
People's Life Party 0.3
Green Breeze         0.1

Most undecided most likely will break for DPJ but it will still be a LDP/NKP landslide
 

[jaichind]

On June 23, one month before the July 11 upper house elections, there will be the Tokyo prefectural election.  LDP dominated this body for decades until LDP/NKP were defeated in 2009 by DPJ.  It was a precursor to the 2009 DPJ lower house victory. This time around LDP/NKP will win in a landslide mostly due to DPJ supporter apathy. It will be a good time to check JRP support which I suspect will be low due to lower organization in Tokyo and recent events involving Hashimoto.

[Frodo]

Why don't the LDP and the NKP simply merge into one party? 

[Zuza]

What benefits can they get from this merge?

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Why don't the LDP and the NKP simply merge into one party? 

The NKP has, in theory, a somewhat different political orientation--on paper, at least, the LDP is liberal-conservative whereas the NKP is a moderate religious conservative party with strong ties to a particular sect of Nichiren Buddhism.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll has

LDP       44
DPJ         7
JRP         5

Abe's approval rating drops to 67.  LDP support is falling now that Abeconomics is seen to be in retreat.  The Yen is raising and Nikki is falling.  If this trend continues then the LDP-NKP will win a middle of the road victory and not a landslide in July 2013.  This will strengthen NKP's hand especially when JRP support falls away and become a less viable alternative ally for LDP.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Good. I trust Komeito to be a much more responsible and better-intentioned working partner for the LDP than Ex-Governor Misogyny and the Hashists would ever be for anyone. I'm also glad to see the DPJ ahead of EGM&H, even if it's only by a little and even if they haven't done a whole hell of a lot to deserve it.

[MaxQue]

Hashists?