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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Dutchess County NY (search mode)
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Author Topic: Dutchess County NY  (Read 2804 times)
CountryClassSF
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Posts: 1,530


« on: January 27, 2013, 03:36:16 pm »

I noticed that Dutchess County,NY voted for Bush twice and then it went to Obama twice. This is the Hudson Valley and the Suburbs of NYC.  I thought that was a surprising development given its support of Bush in 2000 and 04. 

  I wonder what caused that given that 2012 Swung Romney but still lost.

My best guess on Dutchess would be a demographic shift combined with just the general shift leftward in Presidential Elections among cities/suburbs since 2008.

A quick wiki search shows roughly 10% African American and 6% Latino.  I imagine that's grown a bit since the 2000 census, but I think it's just the tremendous racial shift in general in terms of who one votes for.

George W. Bush did quite well with Latinos in 2004, winning about 44% of them nationally.  Not sure about 2000 but I imagine it was still in the high 30s, low 40s range.  I believe Bush broke double digits among black voters as well. 

So, you have almost a 20% minority population in the county, going lockstep Democrat -- and this time had a lower turnout of white voters in New York-recipe for defeat for the GOP there
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